Carter's Plan for MX Lives On

Early this year, the U.S. land-based force of nuclear missiles became vulnerable-on paper-to destruction in a preemptive attack by the Soviet Union. The Air Force has worried about this problem for a long time, searching high and low for a better place to put both the existing, silo-based Minuteman missiles and a new missile, the MX. Under the Carter Admnistration, the Air Force agreed to a missle basing plan known as MPS, for multiple protective shelters. The Reagan Administration has ostensibly dropped this plan in favour of several alternatives. Previous articles in this series explored why U.S. officials became alarmed about missile vulnerability; the genesis of a short-term plan to put more missiles into silos; continuing Air Force opposition to a plan for missiles on constantly roving aricraft; and a bizare plan to bury missiles deep underground.     

An upheaval in u.s. Strategic thought

Early this year, the U.S. land-based force of nuclear missiles became vulnerable to a preemptive attack by the Soviet Union, as the Soviets deployed a large number of highly accurate warheads on their own missiles. They first demonstrated this capability in 1977. Since then, U.S. missile vulnerability has come to assume great importance in superpower relations. Western observers have portrayed the Soviet achievement as a sign of aggression, and made missile vulnerability into a symbol of declining American military strength. The government has proposed a vast military buildup of nuclear weapons, supposedly made necessary by this new threat. But the public is increasingly skeptical, and support for some form of arms control is growing. The first article in this series examines how the United States learned of the Soviet accuracy, and why it caused such great alarm. The next article will examine the Reagan Administration's response to this threat.     

Cost of space-based laser ballistic missile defense

Orbiting platforms carrying infrared lasers have been proposed as weapons forming the first tier of a ballistic missile defense system under the President's Strategic Defense Initiative. As each laser platform can destroy a limited number of missiles, one of several methods of countering such a system is to increase the number of offensive missiles. Hence it is important to know whether the cost-exchange ratio, defined as the ratio of the cost to the defense of destroying a missile to the cost to the offense of deploying an additional missile, is greater or less than 1. Although the technology to be used in a ballistic missile defense system is still extremely uncertain, it is useful to examine methods for calculating the cost-exchange ratio. As an example, the cost of an orbiting infrared laser ballistic missile defense system employed against intercontinental ballistic missiles launched simultaneously from a small area is compared to the cost of additional offensive missiles. If one adopts lower limits to the costs for the defense and upper limits to the costs for the offense, the cost-exchange ratio comes out substantially greater than 1. If these estimates are confirmed, such a ballistic missile defense system would be unable to maintain its effectiveness at less cost than it would take to proliferate the ballistic missiles necessary to overcome it and would therefore not satisfy the President's requirements for an effective strategic defense. Although the method is illustrated by applying it to a space-based infrared laser system, it should be straightforward to apply it to other proposed systems.     

Erratum

In R. Jeffrey Smith's News and Comment article "Antisatellite weapon sets dangerous course" (14 Oct., p. 140), a remark on page 141 (column 3) by Richard Garwin about the usefulness of rockets, balloons, and aircraft to supplant U.S. photoreconnaissance and meterological satellites was inadvertently attributed to Robert Buchheim. And a characterization on page 141 (column 2) of the Soviet antisatellite weapon, or ASAT, was actually made by General Lewis Allen, the former Air Force chief of staff, not by General David Jones, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Finally, a footnote on page 142 should have identified the Patriot as an air-to-air missile, not an air-to-ground missile.     

美国图书馆多元文化服务的现状分析及启示

阐述图书馆多元文化服务的含义,分析了美国图书馆多元文化服务的法律依据和政策保障,并概述美国图书馆多元文化服务的理念和实践,最后提出对我国图书馆开展多元文化服务的几点建议。     

Uncertainties in building a strategic defense

Building a strategic defense against nuclear ballistic missiles involves complex and uncertain functional, spatial, and temporal relations. Such a defensive system would evolve and grow over decades. It is too complex, dynamic, and interactive to be fully understood initially by design, analysis, and experiments. Uncertainties exist in the formulation of requirements and in the research and design of a defense architecture that can be implemented incrementally and be fully tested to operate reliably. The analysis and measurement of system survivability, performance, and cost-effectiveness are critical to this process. Similar complexities exist for an adversary's system that would suppress or use countermeasures against a missile defense. Problems and opportunities posed by these relations are described, with emphasis on the unique characteristics and vulnerabilities of space-based systems.     

工商资本进入现代农业应注意的几个问题

美国次贷危机触发了全球经济衰退,中国经济亦难独善其身,投资难问题日益凸显,当前“工业冷、农业热”的现象令人侧目.文章分析了工商资本进入现代农业的背景和存在的主要问题,指出工商资本进入农业应“有所为,有所不为”.     

Mission-oriented research for light machinery

The time of intelligent machines is upon us. But the United States is not actively pursuing this rich field of technological development. This is evidenced by the U.S. trade deficit of $9 billion in this market in 1977. The synergistic approach of Japan, Germany, Russia, and other countries to research, development, and demonstration among government, academic, and industrial groups is paying big dividends in vital U.S. markets. This article outlines a specific solution in terms of a U.S. national research policy for light machinery and robotics.     

Dispelling myths about verification of sea-launched cruise missiles

It is widely believed that an arms control limit on nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles would be nearly impossible to verify. Among the reasons usually given are: these weapons are small, built in nondistinctive industrial facilities, deployed on a variety of ships and submarines, and difficult to distinguish from their conventionally armed counterparts. In this article, it is argued that the covert production and deployment of nuclear-armed sealaunched cruise missiles would not be so straightforward. A specific arms control proposal is described, namely a total ban on nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles. This proposal is used to illustrate how an effective verification scheme might be constructed.     

海南橡胶树木材加工利用现状

橡胶木是天然橡胶生产的重要副产品,也是海南产量最大的商品材。通过对海南生产单位橡胶木加工利用现状的调查,分析了海南橡胶木锯材制材、防腐和干燥过程的工艺状况,探讨存在的问题,并提出促进海南橡胶木加工利用的建议。     

论政府信息公开

为了精简政府组织,提高行政效率,提供公众便利、高效的检索机制,美国发展了政府信息指引服务。本文在阐述美国对知情权保护立法的基础上,分析美国政府信息指引服务的发展成因,并提出了我国政府信息公开应采取的措施。     

MILITARY RESEARCH: Researchers Target Flaws in Ballistic Missile Defense Plan

More than three dozen scientists journeyed to Washington, D.C., this week to warn lawmakers that a proposed $60 billion U.S. missile defense system, designed to knock incoming warheads out of the sky, is technically flawed because it can't pick out real warheads from decoys. Pentagon officials heatedly deny a new report by one scientist that contractors have rigged trials to hide the problem, although they admit that some tests were simplified to save time. In the wake of these events, a leading Democrat is urging President Bill Clinton to delay a pending decision on building the system.     

加入WTO对中国农产品进入美国市场的影响

中美两国农业贸易对双方都很垂要.本文集中于中国农产品进入美国市场的潜力，研究中美两国农业贸易的发展和分析中美双边贸易协定以及中国WTO成员国对中美两国农业贸易的影响.同时本文作者分析了中国农产品现在和潜在的竞争力并对提高中国对美国农产品出日提供建议。     

中美农业产业化组织比较

本文通过中美农业产业化的主要组织形式的比较分析,相应得出我国农业产业化经营组织形式的未来发展的三大趋势,即农业产业化经营的企业化趋势;农业产业化组织形式的多样式,组织规模的扩张式的趋势;跨国农业产业化组织迅速崛起的趋势．     

Industrial innovation in Japan and the United States

Japanese firms tend to be quicker and more economical than U.S.firms at developing and introducing new products and processes, but this advantage seems to exist only among innovations based on external technology, rather than internal technology. Whereas U.S.firms put more emphasis on marketing start-up, they put much less emphasis on tooling, equipment, and manufacturing facilities than do Japanese firms. Applied R&D in Japan, which focuses more on processes than in the United States, seems to have yielded a handsome return; but there is no evidence that the rate of return from basic research has been relatively high in Japan. In robotics, the Japanese edge seems to increase as one moves from R&D toward the market.     

The global impact of scaling up HIV/AIDS prevention programs in low- and middle-income countries

A strong, global commitment to expanded prevention programs targeted at sexual transmission and transmission among injecting drug users, started now, could avert 28 million new HIV infections between 2005 and 2015. This figure is more than half of the new infections that might otherwise occur during that period in 125 low- and middle-income countries. Although preventing these new infections would require investing about U.S.$122 billion over this period, it would reduce future needs for treatment and care. Our analysis suggests that it will cost about U.S.$3900 to prevent each new infection, but that this will produce a savings of U.S.$4700 in forgone treatment and care costs. Thus, greater spending on prevention now would not only prevent more than half the new infections that would occur from 2005 to 2015 but would actually produce a net financial saving as future costs for treatment and care are averted.     

Erratum

In the article by Eliot Marshall about selenium in the San Joaquin Valley (News and Comment, 12 July, p. 144), it was reported that the U.S. Geological Survey found 4700 parts per million of selenium in one water sample. The correct figure should have been 4700 parts per billion.     

The potential for grass-fed livestock: resource constraints

Using pasture and grazed forest-range for a system of producing live-stock by feeding grass alone reduces the inputs of energy about 60 percent and land resources about 8 percent, but also reduces by about half the production of animal protein in the United States. Under a system in which only grass was fed, livestock would be restricted to beef, milk, and lamb production. The amount of grain fed to U.S. livestock is about 135 million tons (metric) or about ten times the amount consumed by the U.S. population.     

华南籼稻新品种(组合)生育中后期耐冷性研究

2009年早、晚季用PGV–36人工气候箱对华南籼稻新品种“合美占”、“黄丝占”、“粤广丝苗”和三系法杂交稻组合“天优312”、“天优390”于幼穗分化5～6期、始穗期、开花期和灌浆初期进行了低温胁迫研究。结果显示：①幼穗分化5～6期、始穗期和开花期,低温胁迫会导致华南籼稻新品种(组合)植株高度降低,单穗产量及结实率下降。②幼穗分化5～6期低温胁迫会导致水稻穗长缩短,每穗总粒数减少,而其他3个时期的每穗总粒数不会受低温胁迫影响;幼穗分化5～6期低温胁迫会导致穗下第三节间长度极显著缩短,始穗期和开花期低温胁迫则导致穗下第二、第一节间长度缩短;始穗期和开花期低温胁迫会导致稻穗包颈或包颈加剧,幼穗分化5～6期则无此现象发生。③处于不同生育时期的水稻遭遇低温胁迫,其耐冷能力不同,其差异达到极显著水平,耐冷能力大小依次为灌浆初期、开花期、始穗期、幼穗分化5～6期。同一品种(组合)在不同生育时期的耐冷能力不同：天优390在幼穗分化5～6期、灌浆初期耐冷能力最强,但在始穗、开花期较弱;粤广丝苗在始穗期、开花期耐冷能力最强,但在幼穗分化5～6期较弱。     

Genomics. Plant biology in 2010

The completion of the Arabidopsis sequence will be followed by a new ten-year project that will determine the function of all angiosperm genes. Funding for the U.S. component of this multinational project will originate from a new initiative from the U.S. National Science Foundation called the 2010 Project. Progress toward completion of this ambitious project will necessitate significant changes in how the plant biology community selects and approaches research objectives. The plan envisions that the project will facilitate the development of a computational model of a virtual plant that will allow predictive queries about basic mechanisms underlying plant growth and development.