Between a rock and a hard place: the impacts of climate change and housing development on breeding birds in California

Although the effects of climate change on species distributions have received considerable attention, land-use change continues to threaten wildlife by contributing to habitat loss and degradation. We compared projected spatial impacts of climate change and housing development across a range of housing densities on California’s birds to evaluate the relative potential impacts of each. We used species-distribution models in concert with current and future climate projections and spatially explicit housing-development density projections in California. We compared their potential influence on the distributions of 64 focal bird species representing six major vegetation communities. Averaged across GCMs, species responding positively to climate change were projected to gain 253,890 km² and species responding negatively were projected to lose 335,640 km². Development accounted for 32 % of the overall reductions in projected species distributions. In terms of land area, suburban and exurban development accounted for the largest portion of land-use impacts on species’ distributions. Areas in which climatic suitability and housing density were both projected to increase were concentrated along the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and areas of the north coast. Areas of decreasing climatic suitability and increasing housing density were largely concentrated within the Central Valley. Our analyses suggest that the cumulative effects of future housing development and climate change will be large for many bird species, and that some species projected to expand their distributions with climate change may actually lose ground to development. This suggests that a key climate change adaptation strategy will be to minimize the impacts of housing development. To do this effectively, comprehensive policies to guide land use decisions are needed at the broader scales of climate change.     

Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Revision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change

Context

Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales.

Objectives

LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under future climate and to parameterize forest landscape models (FLMs) used to evaluate forest succession under climate change.

Methods

We simulated total tree biomass and responses of individual tree species in each of the 74 ecological subsections across the central hardwood region of the United States under current climate and projected climate at the end of the century from two general circulation models and two representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

Results

Forest composition and abundance varied by ecological subsection with more dramatic changes occurring with greater changes in temperature and precipitation and on soils with lower water holding capacity. Biomass production across the region followed patterns of soil quality.

Conclusions

Linkages 3.0 predicted realistic responses to soil and climate gradients and its application was a useful approach for considering growth potential and maximum growing space under future climates. We suggest Linkages 3.0 can also can used to inform parameter estimates in FLMs such as species establishment and maximum growing space.

     

Not all forests are alike: the role of commercial forest in the conservation of landscape connectivity for the giant panda

Context

The downlisting of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) from Endangered to Vulnerable in IUCN Red List confirms the effectiveness of current conservation practices. However, future survival of giant panda is still in jeopardy due to habitat fragmentation and climate change. Maintaining movement corridors between habitat patches in the newly established Giant Panda National Park (GPNP) is the key for the long-term sustainability of the species.

Objectives

We evaluated the impacts of conversion from natural forest to plantation on giant panda habitat connectivity, which is permitted within collective forests and encouraged by the policies for the economic benefits of local communities. We modeled distribution of giant panda habitat in Minshan Mountains which harbors its largest population, and delineated movement corridors between core habitat patches under management scenarios of different forest conversion proportions.

Methods

We applied an integrated species distribution model based on inhomogeneous Poisson point process to combine presence-only data and site occupancy data, and least-cost models to identify potential movement corridors between core habitat patches.

Results

We found that current distribution of plantation has not damaged connectivity between core habitat patches of giant panda. However, it could be severely degraded if mass conversion occurred. Since the GPNP incorporates all the core habitats identified from our model, controlling natural forest conversion inside GPNP would maintain the movement corridors for giant panda.

Conclusions

We recommend no expansion of plantations inside the GPNP, and improving collective forest management for expansion of ecological forest in adjoining habitat patches.

     

Simulating the effects of climate change on population connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

We utilize empirically derived estimates of landscape resistance to assess current landscape connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, and project how a warming climate may affect landscape resistance and population connectivity in the future. We evaluate the influences of five potential future temperature scenarios involving different degrees of warming. We use resistant kernel dispersal models to assess population connectivity based on full occupancy of suitable habitat in each of these hypothetical future resistance layers. We use the CDPOP model to simulate gene exchange among individual martens in each of these hypothetical future climates. We evaluate: (1) changes in the extent, connectivity and pattern of marten habitat, (2) changes in allelic richness and expected heterozygosity, and (3) changes in the range of significant positive genetic correlation within the northern Idaho marten population under each future scenario. We found that even moderate warming scenarios resulted in very large reductions in population connectivity. Calculation of genetic correlograms for each scenario indicates that climate driven changes in landscape connectivity results in decreasing range of genetic correlation, indicating more isolated and smaller genetic neighborhoods. These, in turn, resulted in substantial loss of allelic richness and reductions in expected heterozygosity. In the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains, climate change may extensively fragment marten populations to a degree that strongly reduces genetic diversity. Our results demonstrate that for species, such as the American marten, whose population connectivity is highly tied to climatic gradients, expected climate change can result in profound changes in the extent, pattern, connectivity and gene flow of populations.     

Landscape prerequisites for the survival of a modelled metapopulation and its neutral genetic diversity are affected by climate change

In response to climate change a species may move, adapt, or go extinct. For the adaptability of a population its genetic diversity is essential, but climate change-induced range shifts can cause a loss of genetic diversity. We investigated how landscape structure affects the level and distribution of genetic diversity in metapopulations subject to climate change-induced range shifts. For this we used the spatially explicit, individual-based model METAPHOR which simulates metapopulation demography and genetics under different temperature increase scenarios. The results indicated that increasing total habitat area may enhance the maintenance of the genetic diversity in metapopulations while they are shifting their range under climate change. However, the results also showed that a high level of total habitat area did not prevent the populations in the newly colonised habitat area of being depleted of much of the original genetic diversity. We therefore conclude that enhancing landscape connectivity may lead to a delayed loss of genetic diversity in metapopulations under climate change, but that additional measures would be necessary to ensure its long-term conservation. Importantly, our simulations also show that a landscape which could be regarded as well-structured under stable climatic conditions, may be inferior for the conservation of genetic diversity during a range shift. This is important information for landscape management when developing strategies for the in situ conservation of genetic variation in natural populations under climate change.     

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the alpine habitat suitability of Japanese stone pine (Pinus pumila)

To assess the potential distribution of Pinus pumila, a dominant species of the Japanese alpine zone, and areas of its habitats vulnerable to global warming, we predicted potential habitats under the current climate and two climate change scenarios (RCM20 and MIROC) for 2081–2100 using the classification tree (CT) model. The presence/absence records of P. pumila were extracted from the Phytosociological Relevé Database as response variables, and five climatic variables (warmth index, WI; minimum temperature for the coldest month, TMC; summer precipitation, PRS; maximum snow water equivalent, MSW; winter rainfall, WR) were used as predictor variables. Prediction accuracy of the CT evaluated by ROC analysis showed an AUC value of 0.97, being categorized as “excellent”. We designated Third Mesh cells with an occurrence probability of 0.01 or greater as potential habitats and further divided them into suitable and marginal habitats based on the optimum threshold probability value (0.06) in ROC analysis. Deviance weighted scores revealed that WI was the largest contributing factor followed by MSW. Changes in habitat types from the current climate to the two scenarios were depicted within an observed distribution (Hayashi’s distribution data). The area of suitable habitats under the current climate decreased to 25.0% and to 14.7% under the RCM20 and MIROC scenarios, respectively. Suitable habitats were predicted to remain on high mountains of two unconnected regions, central Honshu and Hokkaido, while they were predicted to vanish in Tohoku and southwestern Hokkaido. Thus P. pumila populations in these regions are vulnerable to climate change.     

Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: An analysis for five eastern US species

We used a combination of two models, DISTRIB and SHIFT, to estimate potential migration of five tree species into suitable habitat due to climate change over the next 100 years. These species, currently confined to the eastern half of the United States and not extending into Canada, are Diospyros virginiana (persimmon), Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum), Oxydendrum arboreum (sourwood), Pinus taeda (loblolly pine), and Quercus falcata var. falcata (southern red oak). DISTRIB uses a statistical approach to assess potential suitable habitat under equilibrium of 2 × CO₂. SHIFT uses a cellular automata approach to estimate migration and is driven primarily by the abundance of the species near the boundary, forest density inside and outside of the boundary, and distance between cells. For each cell outside the current boundary, SHIFT creates an estimate of the probability that each unoccupied target cell will become colonized over 100 years. By evaluating the probability of colonization within the potential ‘new’ suitable habitat, we can estimate the proportion of new habitat that might be colonized within a century. This proportion is low (<15%) for all five species, suggesting that there is a serious lag between the potential movement of suitable habitat and the potential for the species to migrate into the new habitat. However, humans could hasten the migration of certain species by physically moving the propagules, especially for certain rare species that are unable to move sufficiently through fragmented landscapes, or even more common species, e.g., beech, that have lost many of their animal dispersers.     

Modelling the inter-relationships between habitat patchiness,dispersal capability and metapopulation persistence of the endangered species,Leadbeater's possum,in south-eastern Australia

A computer simulation model was used to derive estimates of the probability of extinction of populations of the endangered species, Leadbeater's Possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri), inhabiting ensembles of habitat patches within two wood production forest blocks in central Victoria, south-eastern Australia. Data on the habitat patches were extracted from forest inventory information that had been captured in the database of a Geographic Information System (GIS). Our analyses focussed on a range of issues associated with the size, number and spatial configuration of patches of potentially suitable habitat that occur within the Ada and Steavenson Forest Blocks. The sensitivity of extinction risks in these two areas to variations in the movement capability ofG. leadbeateri was also examined.Our analyses highlighted major differences in the likelihood of persistence of populations ofG. leadbeateri between the Ada and Steavenson Forest Blocks. These were attributed to differences in the spatial distribution and size of remnant old growth habitat patches as well as the impacts of wildfires. In addition, simulation modelling revealed a different relative contribution of various individual patches, and ensembles of patches, to metapopulation persistence in the two study areas. In those scenarios for the Ada Forest Block in which the impacts of wild-fires were not modelled, our analyses indicated that a few relatively large, linked patches were crucial for the persistence of the species and their loss elevated estimates of the probability of extinction to almost 100%. A different outcome was recorded from simulations of the Steavenson Forest Block which, in comparison with the Ada Forest Block, is characterized by larger and more numerous areas of well connected patches of old growth forest and where we included the impacts of wildfires in the analysis. In this case, metapopulation persistence was not reliant on any single patch, or small set of patches, of old growth forest. We found that in some circumstances the probability that a patch is occupied whilst the metapopulation is extant may be a good measure of its value for metapopulation viability. Another important outcome from our analyses was that estimates of extinction probability were influenced both by the size and the spatial arrangement of habitat patches. This result emphasizes the importance for modelling metapopulation dynamics of accurate spatial information on habitat patchiness, such as the data used in this study which were derived from a GIS.The values for the predicted probability of extinction were significantly influenced by a range of complex inter-acting factors including: (1) the occurrence and extent of wildfires, (2) the addition of logging exclusion areas such as forest on steep and rocky terrain to create a larger and more complex patch structure, (3) estimates of the quality of the habitat within the logging exclusion areas, and (4) the movement capability ofG. leadbeateri. Very high values for the probability of extinction of populations ofG. leadbeateri were recorded from many of the simulations of the Ada and Steavenson Forest Blocks. This finding is the result of the limited areas of suitable old growth forest habitat for the species in the two areas that were targeted for analysis. Hence, there appears to be insufficient old growth forest in either of the two forest blocks to be confident that they will support populations ofG. leadbeateri in the long-term, particularly if a wildfire were to occur in the next 150 years.The results of sensitivity analyses indicated that estimates of the probability of extinction ofG. leadbeateri varied considerably in response to differences in the values for movement capability modelled. This highlighted the need for data on the dispersal behaviour of the species.     

Integrating local breeding pond, landcover, and climate factors in predicting amphibian distributions

Species distributions are influenced by many processes operating over varying spatial scales. The development of species distribution models (SDMs), also known as ecological niche models, has afforded the opportunity to predict the distributions of diverse taxa across broad geographic areas and identify variables that are potentially important in regulating these distributions. However, the integration of site-specific habitat data with broad scale climate and landcover data has received limited attention in an SDM framework. We investigate whether SDMs developed with breeding pond, landcover, and climate variables can accurately predict the distributions of nine pond-breeding amphibians in eastern Missouri, USA. Additionally we investigate the relative influences of each environmental variable on the distribution predictions for each study species, and whether the most influential variables are shared among multiple taxa. Boosted regression tree (BRT) SDMs were developed for each species with 38 abiotic and biotic environmental variables, including data from the breeding ponds, surrounding landcover, and climate. To test the models, field surveys were performed in 2007 and 2008 at 103 ponds for nine amphibian species. BRT models developed with breeding pond, landcover, and climate data accurately predicted the occurrences of six of nine species across the study area. Furthermore, the presence of each species was best predicted by a unique combination of environmental variables. Results also suggest that landcover and climate factors may be more influential for species near the edge of their geographic ranges, while local breeding pond factors may be more important for species nearer to the center of their ranges.     

Integrating graph-based connectivity metrics into species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used in ecology to map the probability of species occurrence on the basis of predictive factors describing the physical environment. We propose an improvement on SDMs by using graph methods to quantify landscape connectivity. After (1) mapping the habitat suitable for a given species, this approach consists in (2) building a landscape graph, (3) computing patch-based connectivity metrics, (4) extrapolating the values of those metrics to any point of space, and (5) integrating those connectivity metrics into a predictive model of presence. For a given species, this method can be used to interpret the significance of the metrics in the models in terms of population structure. The method is illustrated here by the construction of an SDM for the European tree frog in the region of Franche-Comté (France). The results show that the connectivity metrics improve the explanatory power of the SDM and emphasize the important role of the habitat network.     

A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models,and a knowledge-based scoring system

Context

No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates—hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns.

Objective

A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model—DISTRIB II, a species colonization model—SHIFT, and knowledge-based scoring system—MODFACs, to illustrate a decision support framework.

Methods

Using shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) as examples, we project suitable habitats under two future climate change scenarios (harsh, Hadley RCP8.5 and mild CCSM RCP4.5 at ~2100) at a resolution of 10 km and assess the colonization likelihood of the projected suitable habitats at a 1 km resolution; and score biological and disturbance factors for interpreting modeled outcomes.

Results

Shortleaf pine shows increased habitat northward by 2100, especially under the harsh scenario of climate change, and with higher possibility of natural migration confined to a narrow region close to the current species range boundary. Sugar maple shows decreased habitat and has negligible possibility of migration within the US due to a large portion of its range being north of the US border. Combination of suitable habitats with colonization likelihoods also allows for identification of potential locations appropriate for assisted migration, should that be deemed feasible.

Conclusion

The combination of these multiple components using diverse approaches leads to tools and products that may help managers make management decisions in the face of a changing climate.

     

Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

Context

Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climate-induced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change.

Objectives

We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian abundance through changes in forest landscapes and assessed impacts on bird abundances of forest management strategies designed to mitigate climate change effects.

Methods

We coupled a Bayesian hierarchical model with a spatially explicit landscape simulation model (LANDIS PRO) to predict avian relative abundance. We considered multiple climate scenarios and forest management scenarios focused on carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change over 100 years.

Results

Management had a greater impact on avian abundance (almost 50% change under some scenarios) than climate (<3% change) and only early successional and coniferous forest showed significant change in percent cover across time. The northern bobwhite was the only species that changed in abundance due to climate-induced changes in vegetation. Northern bobwhite, prairie warbler, and blue-winged warbler generally increased in response to warming temperatures but prairie warbler exhibited a non-linear response and began to decline as summer maximum temperatures exceeded 36 °C at the end of the century.

Conclusion

Linking empirical models with process-based landscape change models can be an effective way to predict climate change and management impacts on wildlife, but time frames greater than 100 years may be required to see climate related effects. We suggest that future research carefully consider species-specific effects and interactions between management and climate.

     

Dispersal of annual plants in hierarchically structured landscapes

The scale at which plants utilize spatially distributed resources may be determined by their ability to locate sites that can sustain population growth. We developed a spatially-explicit model of the dispersal of annual plants in landscapes which were hierarchically structured, i.e., the spatial pattern of suitable sites was nested and scale-dependent. Results show that colonizing ability and extinction probability are most sensitive to the mean dispersal distance of the species. Dispersal out of the parental site, but within the immediate neighborhood, was the most efficient means for population expansion. When landscape patterns change with scale then dispersal distances determine the spatial scales of habitat utilization. As a complicating factor, the type of statistical distribution of dispersal distances also influences the colonizing ability. However, the importance of dispersal distance mean and distribution decreased as the number and connectance of suitable sites increased. The results suggest that landscape models which consider the interaction between scale dependent changes in landscape pattern and species dispersal and establishment characteristics are relevant to many issues in community ecology, invasion biology, and conservation biology.     

Climate change impacts on forest landscapes along the Canadian southern boreal forest transition zone

Context

Forest landscapes at the southern boreal forest transition zone are likely to undergo great alterations due to projected changes in regional climate.

Objectives

We projected changes in forest landscapes resulting from four climate scenarios (baseline, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), by simulating changes in tree growth and disturbances at the southern edge of Canada’s boreal zone.

Methods

Projections were performed for four regions located on an east–west gradient using a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) parameterized using a forest patch model (PICUS).

Results

Climate-induced changes in the competitiveness of dominant tree species due to changes in potential growth, and substantial intensification of the fire regime, appear likely to combine in driving major changes in boreal forest landscapes. Resulting cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems would be manifold but key changes would include (i) a strong decrease in the biomass of the dominant boreal species, especially mid- to late-successional conifers; (ii) increases in abundance of some temperate species able to colonize disturbed areas in a warmer climate; (iii) increases in the proportions of pioneer and fire-adapted species in these landscapes and (iv) an overall decrease in productivity and total biomass. The greatest changes would occur under the RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenario, but some impacts can be expected even with RCP 2.6.

Conclusions

Western boreal forests, i.e., those bordering the prairies, are the most vulnerable because of a lack of species adapted to warmer climates and major increases in areas burned. Conservation and forest management planning within the southern boreal transition zone should consider both disturbance- and climate-induced changes in forest communities.

     

Spatial planning of a climate adaptation zone for wetland ecosystems

Here we present a spatial planning approach for the implementation of adaptation measures to climate change in conservation planning for ecological networks. We analyse the wetland ecosystems of the Dutch National Ecological Network for locations where the effectiveness of the network might be weakened because of climate change. We first identify potential dispersal bottlenecks where connectivity might be insufficient to facilitate range expansions. We then identify habitat patches that might have a too low carrying capacity for populations to cope with additional population fluctuations caused by weather extremes. Finally, we describe the spatial planning steps that were followed to determine the best locations for adaptation measures. An essential part of our adaptation strategy is to concentrate adaptation measures in a ‘climate adaptation zone’. Concentrating adaptation measures is a cost-effective planning strategy, rendering the largest benefit per area unit. Measures are taken where abiotic conditions are optimal and measures to enhance the spatial cohesion of the network are taken close to existing areas, thus creating the highest possible connectivity with the lowest area demands. Another benefit of a climate adaptation zone is that it provides a spatial protection zone where activities that will have a negative impact on ecosystem functioning might be avoided or mitigated. The following adaptation measures are proposed within the climate adaptation zone: (1) link habitat networks to enable species to disperse from present to future suitable climate zones, (2) enlarge the carrying capacity by either enlarging the size of natural areas or by improving habitat quality to shorten population recovery after disturbances, (3) increase the heterogeneity of natural areas, preferably by stimulating natural landscape-forming processes, to avoid large synchronised extinctions after extreme weather events. The presented approach can be generalised to develop climate adaptation zones for other ecosystem types inside or outside Europe, where habitat fragmentation is a limiting factor in biodiversity responses to climate change.     

Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The distribution of plant species in urban vegetation fragments

(1) The presence and absence of 22 plant species of various growth forms and habitat associations were analysed in 423 habitat fragments totalling 10.4 km² in a 268 km² urban and suburban region, in Birmingham, UK. (2) Multivariate logistic regressions were used to assess the effects of patch geometry and quality on the species distributions. Measures of geometry were area, shape (S-factor), distance from open countryside and various measures of isolation from other patches. Potential habitat for each species was determined quantitatively, and the distribution of each species was considered within a subset of patches containing potentially suitable habitat types. There was found to be a significant positive correlation between the density of patches available to a species and the proportion of these patches which were occupied. (3) Logistic analyses and incidence functions revealed that, for many of the species, occupancy increased with site age, area, habitat number and similarity of adjacent habitats, while increasing distance to the nearest recorded population of the same species decreased the likelihood that a species would be found in a patch. (4) Patterns of occupancy are consistent with increased extinction from small sites, and colonisation of nearby habitats, coupled with an important role for site history. We conclude that spatial dynamics at the scale of the landscape are of importance to the long-term persistence of many plant species in fragmented landscapes, and must be seriously considered in conservation planning and management. These results have direct implications for the siting and connectivity of urban habitat reserves.     

Changes in forest biomass and tree species distribution under climate change in the northeastern United States

Context

Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being.

Objective

We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species distribution changed under multiple climate change scenarios (PCM B1, CGCM A2, and GFDL A1FI) in northeastern forests.

Methods

We used the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model to simulate forest succession and tree harvest under current climate and three climate change scenarios from 2000 to 2300. We analyzed the effects of climate change on AGB and tree species distribution.

Results

AGB increased from 2000 to 2120 irrespective of climate scenario, followed by slight decline, but then increased again to 2300. AGB averaged 10 % greater in the CGCM A2 and GFDL A1FI scenarios than the PCM B1 and current climate scenarios. Climate change effects on tree species distribution were not evident from 2000 to 2100 but by 2300 some northern hardwood and conifer species decreased in occurrence and some central hardwood and southern tree species increased in occurrence.

Conclusions

Climate change had positive effects on forest biomass under the two climate scenarios with greatest warming but the patterns in AGB over time were similar among climate scenarios because succession was the primary driver of AGB dynamics. Our approach, which simulated stand dynamics and dispersal, demonstrated that a northward shift in tree species distributions may take 300 or more years.

     

Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests

Context

Forests throughout eastern North America continue to recover from broad-scale intensive land use that peaked in the nineteenth century. These forests provide essential goods and services at local to global scales. It is uncertain how recovery dynamics, the processes by which forests respond to past forest land use, will continue to influence future forest conditions. Climate change compounds this uncertainty.

Objectives

We explored how continued forest recovery dynamics affect forest biomass and species composition and how climate change may alter this trajectory.

Methods

Using a spatially explicit landscape simulation model incorporating an ecophysiological model, we simulated forest processes in New England from 2010 to 2110. We compared forest biomass and composition from simulations that used a continuation of the current climate to those from four separate global circulation models forced by a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5).

Results

Simulated forest change in New England was driven by continued recovery dynamics; without the influence of climate change forests accumulated 34 % more biomass and succeed to more shade tolerant species; Climate change resulted in 82 % more biomass but just nominal shifts in community composition. Most tree species increased AGB under climate change.

Conclusions

Continued recovery dynamics will have larger impacts than climate change on forest composition in New England. The large increases in biomass simulated under all climate scenarios suggest that climate regulation provided by the eastern forest carbon sink has potential to continue for at least a century.