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1.
Economic analyses are indispensable as sources of information to help policy makers make decisions about mitigation resource use. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic evaluation of the Swiss national mitigation programme for bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), which was implemented in 2008 and concludes in 2017. The eradication phase of the mitigation programme comprised testing and slaughtering of all persistently infected (PI) animals found. First, the whole population was antigen tested and all PI cattle removed. Since October 2008, all newborn calves have been subject to antigen testing to identify and slaughter PI calves. All mothers of PI calves were retested and slaughtered if the test was positive. Antigen testing in calves and elimination of virus-carriers was envisaged to be conducted until the end of 2011. Subsequently, a surveillance programme will document disease freedom or detect disease if it recurs. Four alternative surveillance strategies based on antibody testing in blood from newborn calves and/or milk from primiparous cows were proposed by Federal Veterinary Office servants in charge of the BVDV mitigation programme. A simple economic spreadsheet model was developed to estimate and compare the costs and benefits of the BVDV mitigation programme. In an independent project, the impact of the mitigation programme on the disease dynamics in the population was simulated using a stochastic compartment model. Mitigation costs accrued from materials, labour, and processes such as handling and testing samples, and recording results. Benefits were disease costs avoided by having the mitigation programme in place compared to a baseline of endemic disease equilibrium. Cumulative eradication costs and benefits were estimated to determine the break-even point for the eradication component of the programme. The margin over eradication cost therefore equalled the maximum expenditure potentially available for surveillance without the net benefit from the mitigation programme overall becoming zero. Costs of the four surveillance strategies and the net benefit of the mitigation programme were estimated. Simulations were run for the years 2008-2017 with 20,000 iterations in @Risk for Excel. The mean baseline disease costs were estimated to be 16.04m CHF (1 Swiss Franc, CHF=0.73 € at the time of analysis) (90% central range, CR: 14.71-17.39m CHF) in 2008 and 14.89m CHF (90% CR: 13.72-16.08m CHF) in 2009. The break-even point was estimated to be reached in 2012 and the margin over eradication cost 63.15m CHF (90% CR: 53.72-72.82m CHF). The discounted cost for each surveillance strategy was found to be smaller than the margin, so the mitigation programme overall is expected to have a positive net economic benefit irrespective of the strategy adopted. For economic efficiency, the least cost surveillance alternative must be selected.  相似文献   

2.
The oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programme is the most widespread vaccination programme that is implemented in the European Union and targets wildlife diseases. The size of the project requires significant financial resources, so a cost–benefit analysis is necessary to establish the economic value of the project. We summarized all ORV costs during the period 2011–2016 in Croatia, calculated all established benefits and presented the cost–benefit ratio (CBR). Additionally, we analysed all components included in the ORV and rabies control programme (surveillance, preventive human treatment and vaccination of dogs) to find possibilities to increase the benefits. According to our results, in the period 2011–2016, the CBR was only 0.05, and the majority of the cost was derived from the preventive vaccination of dogs (72.3%). With the implementation of 2‐ or 3‐year vaccination intervals, the CBR can be increased to 1.46 or 1.92, respectively, confirming positive economic value. This study shows the importance of analysing all rabies control and eradication components based on the specific characteristics of a particular country to determine the factors that can be modified to potentially improve the benefits of ORV.  相似文献   

3.
In Switzerland, annual surveys to substantiate freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) are implemented by a random allocation of farms to the respective survey as well as blood sampling of individual animals at farm level. Contrary to many other European countries, bulk-tank milk (BTM) samples have not been used for active cattle disease surveillance for several years in Switzerland. The aim of this project was to provide a financial comparison between the current surveillance programme consisting of blood sampling only and a modified surveillance programme including BTM sampling. A financial spreadsheet model was used for cost comparison. Various surveillance scenarios were tested with different sample sizes and sampling frequencies for BTM samples. The costs could be halved without compromising the power to substantiate the freedom from IBR and EBL through the surveillance programme. Alternatively, the sensitivity could be markedly increased when keeping the costs at the actual level and doubling the sample size. The risk-based sample size of the actual programme results in a confidence of 94,18 % that the farm level prevalence is below 0,2 %. Which the doubled sample size, the confidence is 99,69 % respectively.  相似文献   

4.
The aim of the project was to apply cost-effectiveness analysis to the economic appraisal of avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance, using the implemented surveillance programme in Switzerland as a case study. First a qualitative risk assessment approach was used to assess the expected impact of surveillance on the transmission and spread of AIV. The effectiveness of surveillance was expressed as the difference in defined probabilities between a scenario with surveillance and a scenario without surveillance. The following probabilities were modelled (i) transmission of highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV) from wild birds to poultry, (ii) mutation from low pathogenic AIV (LPAIV) into HPAIV in poultry, and (iii) transmission of HPAIV to other poultry holdings given a primary outbreak. The cost-effectiveness ratio was defined conventionally as the difference in surveillance costs (ΔC) divided by the change in probability (ΔP), the technical objective, on the presumption that surveillance diminishes the respective probabilities. However, results indicated that surveillance in both wild birds and poultry was not expected to change the probabilities of primary and secondary AIV outbreaks in Switzerland. The overall surveillance costs incurred were estimated at 31,000 €/year, which, to be a rational investment of resources, must still reflect the value policy makers attribute to other benefits from having surveillance (e.g. peace of mind). The advantage of the approach adopted is that it is practical, transparent, and thus able to clarify for policy makers the key variables to be taken into account when evaluating the economic efficiency of resources invested in surveillance, prevention and intervention to exclude AIV.  相似文献   

5.
Ontario initiated a red fox (Vulpes vulpes ) oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programme in 1989. This study utilized a benefit‐cost analysis to determine if this ORV programme was economically worthwhile. Between 1979 and 1989, prior to ORV baiting, the average annual human post‐exposure treatments, positive red fox rabies diagnostic tests and indemnity payments for livestock lost to rabies were 2248, 1861 and $246 809, respectively. After baiting, from 1990 to 2000, a 35%, 66% and 41% decrease in post‐exposure treatments, animal rabies tests and indemnity payments was observed, respectively. These reductions were viewed as benefits of the ORV programme, whereas total costs were those associated with ORV baiting. Multiple techniques were used to estimate four different benefit streams and the total estimated benefits ranged from $35 486 316 to $98 413 217. The annual mean ORV programme cost was $6 447 720, with total programme costs of $77 372 637. The average benefit‐cost ratios over the analysis period were .49, 1.06, 1.27 and 1.36, indicating overall programme efficiency in three of the four conservative scenarios.  相似文献   

6.
Collaboration between animal and public health sectors has been highlighted as a means to improve the management of zoonotic threats. This includes surveillance systems for zoonoses, where enhanced cross‐sectoral integration and sharing of information are seen as key to improved public health outcomes. Yet, there is a lack of evidence on the economic returns of such collaboration, particularly in the development and implementation of surveillance programmes. The economic assessment of surveillance in this context needs to be underpinned by the understanding of the links between zoonotic disease surveillance in animal populations and the wider public health disease mitigation process and how these relations impact on the costs and benefits of the surveillance activities. This study presents a conceptual framework of these links as a basis for the economic assessment of cross‐sectoral zoonoses surveillance with the aim of supporting the prioritization of resource allocation to surveillance. In the proposed framework, monetary, non‐monetary and intermediate or intangible cost components and benefit streams of three conceptually distinct stages of zoonotic disease mitigation are identified. In each stage, as the final disease mitigation objective varies so does the use of surveillance information generated in the animal populations for public health decision‐making. Consequently, the associated cost components and benefit streams also change. Building on the proposed framework and taking into account these links, practical steps for its application are presented and future challenges are discussed.  相似文献   

7.
In 2008, Canada designed and implemented the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza Surveillance System (CanNAISS) with six surveillance activities in a phased-in approach. CanNAISS was a surveillance system because it had more than one surveillance activity or component in 2008: passive surveillance; pre-slaughter surveillance; and voluntary enhanced notifiable avian influenza surveillance. Our objectives were to give a short overview of two active surveillance components in CanNAISS; describe the CanNAISS scenario tree model and its application to estimation of probability of populations being free of NAI virus infection and sample size determination. Our data from the pre-slaughter surveillance component included diagnostic test results from 6296 serum samples representing 601 commercial chicken and turkey farms collected from 25 August 2008 to 29 January 2009. In addition, we included data from a sub-population of farms with high biosecurity standards: 36,164 samples from 55 farms sampled repeatedly over the 24 months study period from January 2007 to December 2008. All submissions were negative for Notifiable Avian Influenza (NAI) virus infection. We developed the CanNAISS scenario tree model, so that it will estimate the surveillance component sensitivity and the probability of a population being free of NAI at the 0.01 farm-level and 0.3 within-farm-level prevalences. We propose that a general model, such as the CanNAISS scenario tree model, may have a broader application than more detailed models that require disease specific input parameters, such as relative risk estimates.  相似文献   

8.
Alternative mitigation strategies were compared during hypothetical outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the USA using a computer-simulation model. The epidemiologic and economic consequences were compared during these simulated outbreaks. Three vaccination and four slaughter strategies were studied along with two speeds of FMD virus spread among three susceptible populations of animals. The populations represented typical animal demographics in the United States.The best strategy depended on the speed of spread of FMD virus and the demographics of the susceptible population. Slaughter of herds in contact with known contagious herds was less costly than slaughtering only contagious herds. Slaughtering in 3 km rings around contagious herds was consistently more costly than other slaughter strategies. Ring vaccination in 10 km rings was judged more costly than slaughter alone in most situations. Although early ring vaccination resulted in lower government costs and duration in fast-spread scenarios, it was more costly when vaccinated animals were slaughtered with indemnity and other related slaughter costs.  相似文献   

9.
Two alternative emergency-vaccination strategies with a marker vaccine that could have been applied in the 1997/1998 Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic were evaluated in a modified spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model: InterCSF. In strategy 1, vaccination would be applied only to overcome a shortage in destruction capacities. Destruction of all pigs on vaccinated farms distinguishes this strategy from strategy 2, which assumes intra-Community trade of vaccinated pig meat. InterCSF simulates the spread of CSF between farms through local spread and three contact types. Disease spread is affected by control measures implemented through different mechanisms. Economic results were generated by a separate model that calculated the direct costs (including the vaccination costs) and consequential losses for farmers and related industries subjected to control measures. The comparison (using epidemiological and economic results) between the different emergency-vaccination strategies with an earlier simulated preventive-slaughter scenario led to some general conclusions on the Dutch CSF epidemic. Both emergency-vaccination strategies were hardly more efficient than the non-vaccination scenario. The intra-Community trade strategy (vaccination-strategy 2) was the least costly of all three scenarios.  相似文献   

10.
Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) was first identified in Cambodia in 2010, causing serious problems on affected farms, although the costs of the disease have not been well defined. The household financial impact of a PRRS outbreak in Cambodia was investigated using partial budget analysis, examining the economic benefit of three proposed interventions: (i) quarterly PRRS vaccine use, (ii) biosecurity implementation, and (iii) implementation of vaccination and biosecurity. The analyses were applied to three farm models: (i) a two-sow breeder; (ii) a five-pig fattener; and (iii) a single-sow, three-pig farrow-to-finish/breeder. Data was derived from a knowledge, attitude, and practice survey of 240 smallholder farmers (61 with pigs) from 16 villages across 5 provinces, plus case studies of 12 farmers selected for more detailed financial analysis. The study indicated that financial losses associated with PRRS were severe, with a 25% mean loss to the annual household income of 61 interviewed farmers. Partial budget analysis identified a strongly positive incentive for vaccination and biosecurity to be implemented in combination, with the highest annual net benefit of USD 357.10 realised by the breeder system. However, due to current scarcity of the PRRS vaccine and its high cost to smallholders, biosecurity interventions may be more cost-effective, especially for low PRRS incidence regions. It was concluded that PRRS critically constrains the profitability of smallholder pig farms and that these findings will assist development of village-level livestock disease risk management programmes that encourage adoption of vaccination and biosecurity practices to enhance farmer livelihoods in Cambodia.  相似文献   

11.
The financial cost of clinical Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) and the financial benefit of its control through vaccination were studied based on questionnaire survey in Oromia region of Ethiopia from the perspective of livestock farmers. Production loss impacts for local zebu cattle were compared with those of Holstein Friesian (HF)/crossbred cattle in the study area. Annual cumulative incidence of LSD infection in HF/crossbred and local zebu cattle were 33.93% (95% CI: 30.92-36.94) and 13.41% (95% CI: 12.6-14.25) respectively and significantly different (p<0.05). Annual mortality was also significantly higher in HF/crossbred 7.43% (95% CI: 5.76-9.10) than in local zebu cattle 1.25% (95% CI: 0.98-1.52). The annual financial cost was calculated as the sum of the average production losses due to morbidity and mortality arising from milk loss, beef loss, traction power loss, and treatment and vaccination costs at the herd level. The financial cost in infected herds was estimated to be USD 6.43 (5.12-8) per head for local zebu and USD 58 (42-73) per head for HF/crossbred cattle. A partial budget analysis was used to estimate the financial benefit of an annual vaccination program in both the local zebu and HF/crossbred cattle farming systems. The marginal rate of return (MRR) gained from this control intervention was estimated to be 34 (3400%) and the net benefit per head was USD 1 for local zebu and USD 19 for HF/crossbred cattle. Vaccination thus enabled financial costs due to LSD to be reduced by 17% per head in local zebu herds and 31% per head in HF/crossbred herds. These results could provide guidance to producers and the government in their endeavors to control the disease.  相似文献   

12.
Pastoral cattle live in highly structured communities characterized by complex contact patterns. The present paper describes a spatially heterogeneous model for the transmission of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) developed specifically for pastoral communities of East Africa. The model is validated against serological data on the prevalence of CBPP infection in several communities of southern Sudan and against livestock owner information on community structure, livestock contact and cattle exchange. The model is used to assess the impact of alternative control strategies including mass and elective vaccination programmes, potential treatment regimes and the combination of vaccination and treatment in a single unified strategy. The results indicate that the eradication of CBPP using mass vaccination with currently available vaccines is unlikely to succeed. On the other hand, elective control programmes based on herd level vaccination, treatment of clinical cases or a combination of both vaccination and treatment enabled individual livestock owners to capture a large benefit in terms of reduced animal-level prevalence and mortality experience. The most promising intervention scenario was a programme which combined the vaccination of healthy animals with treatment of clinical cases.  相似文献   

13.
OBJECTIVE: To assess relative costs and benefits of vaccination and preemptive herd slaughter to control transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV). SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Direct costs associated with indemnity, slaughter, cleaning and disinfecting livestock premises, and vaccination were compared for various eradication strategies. Additional cost, total program cost, net benefit, and benefit-cost value (B/C) for each supplemental strategy were estimated, based in part on results of published model simulations for FMD. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Mean herd indemnity payments were estimated to be dollars 2.6 million and dollars 110,359 for dairy and nondairy herds, respectively. Cost to clean and disinfect livestock premises ranged from dollars 18,062 to dollars 60,205. Mean vaccination cost was dollars 2,960/herd. Total eradication cost ranged from dollars 61 million to dollars 551 million. All supplemental strategies involving use of vaccination were economically efficient (B/C range, 5.0 to 10.1) and feasible, whereas supplemental strategies involving use of slaughter programs were not economically efficient (B-C, 0.05 to 0.8) or feasible. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Vaccination with a highly efficacious vaccine may be a cost-effective strategy for control of FMD if vaccinated animals are not subsequently slaughtered and there is no future adverse economic impact, such as trade restrictions. Although less preferable than the baseline eradication program, selective slaughter of highest-risk herds was preferable to other preemptive slaughter strategies. However, indirect costs can be expected to contribute substantially more than direct costs to the total cost of eradication programs.  相似文献   

14.
Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) emerged in Central Western Europe in 2006 causing a large scale epidemic in 2007 that involved several European Union (EU) countries including Belgium. As in several other EU member states, vaccination against BTV-8 with inactivated vaccines was initiated in Belgium in spring 2008 and appeared to be successful. Since 2009, no clinical cases of Bluetongue (BT) have been reported in Belgium and BTV-8 circulation seemed to have completely disappeared by spring 2010. Therefore, a series of repeated cross-sectional surveys, the BT sentinel surveillance program, based on virus detection in blood samples by means of real-time RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) were carried out in dairy cattle from the end of 2010 onwards with the aim to demonstrate the absence of BTV circulation in Belgium. This paper describes the results of the first two sampling rounds of this BT sentinel surveillance program carried out in October-November 2010 and January-February 2011. In addition, the level of BTV-specific maternal antibodies in young non-vaccinated animals was monitored and the level of herd immunity against BTV-8 after 3 consecutive years of compulsory BTV-8 vaccination was measured by ELISA. During the 1st sampling round of the BT sentinel surveillance program, 15 animals tested positive and 2 animals tested doubtful for BTV RNA by RT-qPCR. During the 2nd round, 17 animals tested positive and 5 animals tested doubtful. The positive/doubtful animals in both rounds were re-sampled 2-4 weeks after the original sampling and then all tested negative by RT-qPCR. These results demonstrate the absence of BTV circulation in Belgium in 2010 at a minimum expected prevalence of 2% and 95% confidence level. The study of the maternal antibodies in non-vaccinated animals showed that by the age of 7 months maternal antibodies against BTV had disappeared in most animals. The BTV seroprevalence at herd level after 3 years of compulsory BTV-8 vaccination was very high (97.4% [95% CI: 96.2-98.2]). The overall true within-herd BTV seroprevalence in 6-24 month old Belgian cattle in early 2011 was estimated at 73.4% (95% CI: 71.3-75.4).  相似文献   

15.
A reference horse‐breeding programme with 13 500 foals each year was modelled with ZPLAN+. This new software for the optimization of the structures in breeding programmes is based on ZPLAN. In two scenarios, the implementation of a rigorous selection of mares was implemented. In scenario I, the mare performance test was the point of selection, while in scenario II, further information on 20 competitions in two more years is available. These selected mares were used for embryo transfer (ET), partly in combination with multiple ovulation (MOET). The selection intensity and the number of foals out of (MO)ET were varied in both scenarios. It was expected that 250, 500 and 1000 mares are available for selecting 20, 50, 100 or 200 donor mares each year. The number of foals out of (MO)ET was varied between one and six foals per donor mare and year. Donor mares were used for ET for 4 years. It became clear that with high selection intensities of donor mares and high reproduction rates of them, the yearly genetic gain in a horse‐breeding programme could increase over a large range. In scenario II, the additional information on 20 competitions increased the accuracy of the selection index to 0.85. With 200 selected donor mares of 1000 available mares and six foals per year, the genetic gain could almost be doubled compared to the reference scenario. The implementation of ET and a related higher usage of few selected mares entails rising costs and a reduction in the genetic variance. In the most extreme MOET scenario, the effective population size was reduced by 19% relative to the reference scenario. Only if the increase in genetic gain can be converted into higher return for the breeders, the implementation of (MO)ET schemes is a realistic and sensible option for horse‐breeding programmes.  相似文献   

16.
Johne's disease (JD) is an incurable, chronic infectious disease prevalent in dairy herds throughout the US and the world. The substantial economic losses caused by JD have been well documented. However, information on the costs of controlling the disease is limited, yet necessary, if producers are to make sound decisions regarding JD management. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of management changes to control JD on infected dairy farms. A 5-year longitudinal study of six dairy herds infected with JD was performed. Each herd implemented a JD control program upon study enrollment. Prevalence of JD within each herd was monitored with annual testing of all adult cows using fecal culture and/or serum ELISA. Individual cow production and culling information was collected to estimate the annual economic losses caused by JD. An economic questionnaire was developed and administered to each herd annually to estimate costs directly attributable to the JD control program. Based on the costs of the control program, and using the losses to estimate the potential benefits of the control program, the net present value (NPV) of the control program was calculated for each herd during the study and projected into the future for a total of 20 years. The NPV was calculated for four different scenarios: (1) assuming a linear decline in losses beyond the observed period of the study with JD eradication by year 20 of the control program; (2) assuming losses and JD prevalence remain constant at the rate equal to that of the last observed year while continuing the control program; (3) assuming linear increase in losses at rate equal to that in scenario 1 with no control program; and (4) assuming losses remain constant at same level as the beginning of the study with no control plan implemented. The NPV varied greatly across the herds. For scenario 1, only three herds had a positive NPV; and only two herds had a positive NPV under scenario two. In the absence of a control program, the NPV's were always negative. The costs of the JD control programs implemented on these herds averaged $30/cow/year with a median of $24/cow/year. The annual losses due to JD averaged $79/cow/year with a median of $66/cow/year. Investing in a JD control program can be cost-effective.  相似文献   

17.
An integrated computer-based spreadsheet was developed with data from 581 Red Angus-sired calves to compare synchronized AI and natural service breeding systems. This comparison was based on input costs, genetic merit of sires used for mating, and calf marketing system, using differences in net return. The spreadsheet integrated four elements into a decision summary: bull costs, AI costs, genetics merit, and marketing options. An economic sensitivity analysis was used to identify trends and key variables in the net return of each decision. Three prominent variables identified from economic analysis were bull purchase price, semen price, and percent genetic change. Bull purchase price was a primary factor in changes in net return; semen costs and genetic merit change explained rearrangements in ranking of net return. These two variables altered the ranking based on whether the estrous synchronization protocol used estrus detection or timed AI. The spreadsheet identified AI to be more cost effective than natural service when calves are marketed as finished cattle. Net revenue from AI calves was greater in all retained ownership scenarios; the weaned marketing scenario caused net return to vary by synchronization system for the combinations of costs and changes in genetic merit. However, there was a wide variance in identifying which breeding system provided the greatest benefit when calves were marketed as feeder cattle. Retaining ownership through finish and marketing either on the cash market or on a grid proved to be advantageous to AI in all of the estrous synchronization protocols provided. The economic advantage ranged from $142.98 to $214.16 per head compared with marketing at weaning. The spreadsheet developed provides a useful tool for evaluating the economic impacts of breeding system decisions.  相似文献   

18.
Using the example of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in Scottish suckler (cow-calf) beef herds, this paper demonstrated a method to establish the maximum average net benefit of disease control under specific epidemiological and farm business circumstances. Data were generated for the method using a stochastic epidemiological model set to estimate the mean and variance of control costs and output losses from BVD for 50-cow or 120-cow herds, either free of BVD at the outset or of unknown BVD status. Control of disease was by increased investment in a variety of (‘biosecurity’) measures aimed at reducing the probability of virus entering the closed herd in any 1 year of a 10-year period of simulated exposure to risk from BVD virus introduction either with or without vaccination. Herds free of BVD at the outset enjoyed much greater maximum average net benefits than herds of unknown BVD status. Best allocations of hypothetical incentives to encourage farmers to establish their freedom from BVD were therefore outlined. Vaccination and biosecurity were generally found to be complementary rather than substitutes for one another. The advantages of the maximum net benefit measure over the more usual average total cost of endemic disease were demonstrated and discussed. The maximum net benefit method focuses on the relationship between costs and benefits, which often exhibits diminishing marginal returns meaning that profit maximisation and disease minimisation are incompatible. The method can also allow for constraints on and competition for limited farm resources. It was argued that these attributes are important to persuade farmers to invest in animal health.  相似文献   

19.
OBJECTIVE: To assess the impacts of the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and various FMD control programs in southern Thailand. ANIMALS: A native population of 562,910 cattle and 33,088 buffalo as well as 89,294 animals legally transported into southern Thailand. PROCEDURES: A quantitative risk assessment was used to ascertain the probability of FMD introduction, and an intrinsic dynamic model was used to assess impacts. Value for the transmission rate (beta) was estimated. Five scenarios created to assess the impacts of nonstructural protein (NSP) testing, mass vaccination, and culling were examined. Impacts were assessed through an examination of the estimated annual cumulative incidence (ACI) of FMD. The ACIs of various scenarios were compared by use of the Tukey Studentized range technique. RESULTS: beta was estimated at 0.115. Approximately 35,000 cases of FMD would be expected from the baseline situation. A 30% reduction of ACI was detected with the introduction of NSP antibody testing. Prophylactic vaccination resulted in an 85% reduction of ACI. Concurrent use of NSP antibody testing and vaccination reduced the ACI by 96%, and the addition of an eradication policy resulted in a slightly greater decrease in the ACI (98%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The study used epidemiologic models to investigate FMD control interventions. Results suggested that vaccination has more impact than the use of NSP testing. Use of the NSP test reduced ACI during peak seasons, whereas vaccination diminished the underlying incidence. The best mitigation plan was an integrated and strategic use of multiple control techniques.  相似文献   

20.
Aujeszky's disease was first diagnosed in the North Island of New Zealand in 1976. It has never been reported in the South Island. An industry-funded eradication programme was initiated in 1989 to eradicate the disease from the national pig herd. By using a combination of serological surveys, abattoir surveillance, test and slaughter, depopulation, vaccination and movement restrictions, Aujeszky's disease was eradicated by 1997.  相似文献   

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