Models for prediction of mortality in even‐aged forest

Models for predicting mortality in even‐aged stands were developed. The models rely on data from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory, and were designed for use in large‐scale forestry scenario models. A two‐step modelling strategy was applied: (1) logistic regression models predicting the probability of complete survival occurring,” and (2) multiplicative regression models for stem number reduction and diameter calibration. A joint model for all species predicting the probability of survival occurring on a plot was developed. Separate models for forests dominated by spruce, pine and broadleaved trees were developed for stem number reduction, while no appropriate models for diameter calibration were found. The phenomenon mortality is a stochastic, rare and irregular event, and this was reflected as low R ² in the models. However, the model performance appeared logical and the results of validations based on independent data were reasonably good, i.e. the presented models may be applied to large‐scale forestry scenario analyses. With new rotations of permanent sample plot measurements, the models should be evaluated and, if necessary, revised.     

Measurement Models of Forest Biodiversity Variation and Its Controlling Study in China

According to the evaluative data of forest biodiversity variation in China from 1973 to 1998, not only the gray model GM( 1,2), but also the status spatial characterization model with the optimal control model for forest biodiversity variation is developed by using some mathematic approaches and knowledge in economic cybernetics. Furthermore, the structural characteristics of forest biodiversity variation are analyzed. The paper points out that the variation of forest biodiversity is instable, but it can be controlled and known certainly. The close-loop feedback controlling and the optimal controlling are also existent. That is to say, the preestablished targets of forest biodiversity variation can be met by adjusting the policy's variables, thus alleviating the pressure of forest biodiversity. The variation of forest biodiversity can be shown by the pressure index of variation. This paper finally shows that when the pressure index of forest biodiversity is a constant 100, the optimal movement curves ar     

A New Book on Forestry Ecological Construction and Management Models in China

Forests are the main body of land ecosystem. The development of human society indicates that, the deterioration of ecological environment is induced by the damage of forests, and on the other hand the improvement of ecological environment is being derived and will continue to be derived from the conservation of forests and the establishment of plantations. Forestry is responsible for the national and global ecological safety, and also the sustainable development of society. At the very early s…     

Ecosystem-management-based Management Models of Fast-growing and High-yield Plantation and Its Eco-economic Benefits Analysis

The paper expounded the basic concept and principles of ecosystem management,and analyzed the state and trend of industrial plantation ecosystem management in other countries.Based on the analysis of typical case studies,the eco-economic benefits were evaluated for the management models of fast-growing and high-yield plantations.     

The Influence of Farmers�� Mental Models on an Agroforestry Extension Program in the Philippines

The influence of farmers’ mental models on the success of an agroforestry extension program on Leyte Island in the Philippines was investigated. Knowledge of farmers’ mental models and hence the likely acceptance of technology was used to inform the design of a hypothetically expanded program. To gain an insight into the reasons behind differing acceptance of extension assistance, data were collected and analysed from formal interviews, translated conversations and visual observations. The data provided a chain of evidence and triangulation between farmers’ stated intentions and their actions. Farmers had little prior knowledge of nursery technology and were highly receptive to extension assistance which enabled them to develop high self-efficacy in seedling production. However, farmers’ rejection of silvicultural advice to thin and prune existing plantations was predicated by existing attitudes to forest resource management. Farmers also expressed a strong preference for a low-cost and low-input approach to establishing timber trees. Visual observations of farmers’ tree establishment practices indicated the existence of gaps in their knowledge of tree growth processes. This investigation illustrates the need to elicit farmers’ mental models as a parallel enquiry to extension activities. If agroforestry extension is to be constructivist and participatory, accommodation of farmers’ mental models and modification of program goals may be necessary. Relatively little is known about the reasons for farmers’ acceptance or rejection of silviculture in Leyte and these results indicate that further research into the way that farmers’ mental models filter and guide acceptance of advice may be worthwhile.     

Models of the spring phenology of boreal and temperate trees: Is there something missing?

According to prevailing theory, air temperature is the main environmental factor regulating the timing of bud burst of boreal and temperate trees. Air temperature has a dual role in this regulation. First, after the cessation of growth in autumn, prolonged exposure to chilling causes rest completion, i.e., removes the physiological growth-arresting conditions inside the bud. After rest completion, prolonged exposure to warm conditions causes ontogenetic development leading to bud burst or flowering. During the past three decades, several simulation models based on chilling and forcing have been developed and tested. In recent modeling studies of the timing of bud burst in mature trees, the simpler thermal-time models that assume forcing starts on a fixed date in the spring have outperformed the chilling-forcing models. We hypothesize that this discrepancy may be due to some element missing from the chilling-forcing models. We tested two new model formulations by introducing reversing, temperature-driven elements that precede forcing and by fitting the models to seven historical time series of data of flowering and leaf bud burst of common boreal tree species. In these tests, both of the new models were generally more accurate in predicting the timing of bud burst than a classical chilling-forcing model, but less accurate than the simple thermal-time model. We therefore conclude that besides chilling, other environmental factors are involved in the regulation of the timing of bud burst. Further work is needed to determine if the regulatory factors derive from air temperature or from some other environmental condition such as changes in light conditions, like day length or night length.     

Models for predicting tree and stand development on larch plantations in Hallormsstaður,Iceland

The aim was to model the growth of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) and Russian larch (Larix sukaczewii Dyl., syn. L. sibirica var. sukaczewii) plantations in Hallormsstaeur, Iceland. The field inventory was carried out in eastern Iceland in June 2006. Models were constructed for predicting dominant height, total tree height and 5-year diameter increment. Several linear and non-linear forms of models were tested in preliminary analyses to find the equations that fitted the modelled characteristics best. Due to the spatially hierarchical correlation structure of the data (stands, plots and trees), the assumption of non-correlated error terms did not hold. Therefore, a random parameter modelling approach was adopted using mixed models when the estimates obtained for the random effects were statistically significant. The variance estimates for the random effects can be further used to calibrate the models. The models generated here performed well with independent test data and were consistent with the forest growth theory. They can be used to evaluate site quality and to estimate the growth and yield of larch stands in eastern Iceland in connection with forest planning.