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1.
The identification of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on length‐at‐age of fish stocks is important to understanding ecosystem dynamics and harvest intensity. We evaluated coastwide annual growth of n = 187,115 Atlantic Menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) and n = 299,185 Gulf Menhaden (B. patronus), using samples collected from the North, Mid‐, and South Atlantic from 1961 to 2016 and across the Gulf of Mexico from 1977 to 2016. Using hierarchical models of age 1 growth and age 2 growth, we evaluated a suite of candidate predictors including fishery landings, easterly (U) and northerly (V) wind velocity, river discharge, juvenile abundance, and the Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO). We found age 2 growth rates were smaller than age 1 growth rates for both species and that Atlantic Menhaden growth rates were 3–4 times greater than Gulf Menhaden. Age 1 growth rate of Atlantic Menhaden was positively affected by landings lagged by one year, indicating a density‐dependent mechanism. In addition, AMO (negative effect), and wind U (positive effect) and wind V (negative effect) in the North Atlantic region were significant factors influencing coastwide age 1 Menhaden growth. Wind V (negative effect) and AMO (positive effect) influenced age 1 Gulf Menhaden growth. No environmental factors were found to have an effect on age 2 Atlantic Menhaden growth, and AMO was the only significant predictor (weak negative effect) of age 2 Gulf Menhaden growth. Fishing pressure was the primary influence on age 1 Atlantic Menhaden growth, whereas age 1 Gulf Menhaden growth was primarily influenced by environmental conditions.  相似文献   

2.
The Barents Sea is the north‐eastern fringe of the distribution of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou). Fluctuations in distribution and abundance of blue whiting in the area have been marked. Two hypotheses are put forward to explain these fluctuations. First, rich year classes in the main Atlantic stock of blue whiting may contribute to increased abundance in the Barents Sea. Second, variations in hydrography, such as influx of warm Atlantic water, may be particularly important in this fringe area. We investigated these hypotheses using data from bottom trawl surveys conducted during the period 1981–2006. Variations in abundance (measured either as incidence or density) and distribution were correlated with recruitment in the Atlantic stock of blue whiting as well as hydrographic conditions. Regression analyses indicated that the abundance fluctuations are primarily determined by variations in recruitment of Atlantic blue whiting, a strong year class leading to high abundance in the Barents Sea the year after spawning. However, salinity anomaly in the Fugløya–Bear Island transect during the previous year, an indicator of high inflow of Atlantic water, had also a significant, positive effect. Thus, the data suggested a climatic modulation of dynamics that were primarily determined by recruitment of blue whiting in the main Atlantic stock. Analyses of size structure as well as earlier studies on population genetics supported this conclusion.  相似文献   

3.
Relative abundance of many shark species in the Atlantic is assessed by compiling data from several independently conducted, but somewhat spatially limited surveys. Although these localized surveys annually sample the same populations, resulting trends in yearly indices often conflict with one another, thereby hindering interpretation of abundance patterns at broad spatial scales. We used delta‐lognormal generalized linear models (GLMs) to generate indices of abundance for seven Atlantic coastal shark species from six fishery‐independent surveys along the US east coast and Gulf of Mexico from 1975 to 2014. These indices were further analysed using dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to produce simplified, broad‐scale common trends in relative abundance over the entire sampled distribution. Effects of drivers including the North Atlantic Oscillation index, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index, annually averaged sea surface temperature and species landings were evaluated within the DFA model. The two decadal oscillations and species landings were shown to affect shark distribution along south‐east US coast. Estimated common trends of relative abundance for all large coastal shark species showed similar decreasing patterns into the early 1990s, periods of sustained low index values thereafter and recent indications of recovery. Small coastal shark species exhibited more regional variability in their estimated common trends, such that two common trends were required to adequately describe patterns in relative abundance throughout the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. Overall, all species’ (except the Gulf of Mexico blacknose shark) time series concluded with an increasing trend, suggestive of initial recovery from past exploitation.  相似文献   

4.
In the more than 50 years that the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has operated on a regular monthly basis in the north-east Atlantic and North Sea, large changes have been witnessed in the planktonic ecosystem. These changes have taken the form of long-term trends in abundance for certain species or stepwise changes for others, and in many cases are correlated with a mode of climatic variability in the North Atlantic, either: (1) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basin-scale atmospheric alteration of the pressure field between the Azores high pressure cell and the Icelandic Low; or (2) the Gulf Stream Index (GSI), which measures the latitudinal position of the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Recent work has shown that the changes in the GSI are coupled with the NAO and Pacific Southern Oscillation with a 2 year lag. The plankton variability is also possibly linked to changes observed in the distribution and flux of water masses in the surface, intermediate and deep waters of the North Atlantic. For example, in the last two decades, the extent and location of the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, Labrador Sea Intermediate Water and Norwegian Sea intermediate and upper-layer water has altered considerably. This paper discusses the extent to which observed changes in plankton abundance and distribution may be linked to this basin-scale variability in hydrodynamics. The results are also placed within the context of global climate warming and the possible effects of the observed melting of Arctic permafrost and sea ice on the subpolar North Atlantic.  相似文献   

5.
We tested whether synchronous, long‐term fluctuations in Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) trap catches, collected from the ancestral Mediterranean and Atlantic trap fishery, might be related to large‐scale environmental change. Nine time series of trap catches of more than 80 yr long were compared with long time series of three preselected environmental variables, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Length of the Day Index (LOD, a proxy of the atmospheric circulation index) and the temperature. Spectral analyses of trap catches, LOD and temperature displayed similar spectra with peaks at low frequencies, whereas those of the NAO exhibited a broad band spectrum. Regression analyses and tests of correlation did not reveal any clear relationship between trap catches on the one hand and NAO and LOD on the other hand. In contrast, long‐term fluctuations in trap catches appear to be closely and negatively related to long‐term trends in temperature. Underlying processes that could explain such a relationship are discussed, with special focus on changes in migration patterns of the Atlantic bluefin tuna.  相似文献   

6.
The six stocks of redfish (Sebastes spp.) in the Northwest Atlantic have been fished for the past 60 years, during which time they have also experienced considerable variability in environmental conditions. Despite their close proximity and with life‐history features characteristic of many deep‐sea fishes (long‐lived, slow‐growing, late‐maturing, relatively low fecundity), each redfish stock has displayed quite different dynamics. Some have been able to support apparently sustainable fisheries, whereas others have been forced to close. The causes of such differences are unclear. We used dynamic factor analysis to determine the relative impacts of exploitation (days fishing for redfish, days fishing for shrimp, days fished by all fisheries, catch in the redfish fishery, total redfish catch) and environment (North Atlantic Oscillation, surface temperature, salinity, shallow, middle, and deep bottom temperatures) on trends of abundance in each stock over the years 1960–2004. The results showed that a mix of exploitation and environmental variability, with various and different lag times, accounted for observed trends. The Gulf of St. Lawrence stock was affected most by exploitation. Flemish Cap and northern Newfoundland‐Labrador stocks were mostly affected by environmental factors with longer time lags than more southerly stocks. We conclude that management of redfish must take into account individual responses to exploitation and environment over the time periods during which such factors operate, often decades or more, as opposed to the usual practice of reviewing only dynamics of the past few years. Deep‐sea populations cannot be managed on the same scales as shelf fisheries.  相似文献   

7.
Time series of European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) landings from 1962 and environmental variables from 1978 in the northern Alboran Sea are analysed. European sardine spawns in the northern Alboran Sea from mid‐autumn to late winter at a temperature range slightly higher than the one observed in the nearby Eastern North Atlantic and the North Western Mediterranean. Individuals hatched during autumn and winter are incorporated to the fishery during the following summer and autumn producing the maximum annual landings. These landings show both a decreasing long‐term trend and a strong inter‐annual variability. Although further research is needed, the warming trend of sea surface temperature and the decrease in upwelling intensity inferred from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses could have some influence on the negative trends of sardine landings. The inter‐annual variability of sardine abundance seems to be related to the wind intensity at a local scale, the second principal component of the chlorophyll concentration and the sardine abundance during the preceding year. If the inter‐annual variability is considered, a linear model including these three variables with a one‐year time lag allows to explain 79% of the sardine landings variance. If the negative linear trend is also considered, the model explains 86% of the variance. These results indicate that the body condition of spawners, linked to the food availability during the preceding year, is the main factor controlling the recruitment success. The possibility of predicting sardine landings 1 year in advance could have important implications for fishery management.  相似文献   

8.
Hydroclimatic variability is one of the main factors that drives inter‐annual changes in fish migration patterns. This study analyses the relationship between climate‐oceanographic factors and migration of the Atlantic pomfret (Brama brama) in NE Atlantic waters. Geo‐referenced catch data from logbooks of longliners operating in European Atlantic waters from 2002 to 2013 were linked to environmental indices at different temporal and spatial scales. Our results point to a strong influence of temperature at 200 m depth as the key factor along with the upwelling in the Galician (NW Iberian) waters. However, sea surface temperature (SST) indirectly affects the geographical display of Atlantic pomfret migration, and large migrations are observed in scenarios of high SSTs in the migratory area (c. above 14.7°C). Migrations are constrained during years when temperatures are below this threshold. A longer time‐series of annual landings (1950–2013) supports this evidence and highlights the significant influence of temperature at 200‐m depth along with the landings of the previous year. Length frequency distributions suggest an increase in size between consecutive seasons supporting the hypothesis that migration is a feeding strategy and a return to tropical waters of origin for spawning. Our study shows that the temperature of intermediate waters is a key variable in determining the northward migration of the Atlantic pomfret whereas density‐dependence and surface climatic conditions trigger secondary effects on the migration pattern of this species.  相似文献   

9.
The objective of this study was to assess the effect of environmental variations on the abundance of Sardinella aurita and Sardinella maderensis in Senegalese waters in the upwelling system. Monthly data indicating the abundance of sardinella were first estimated from commercial statistics, using Generalized Linear Model from 1966 to 2011. Abundance indices (AIs) were then compared with environmental indices, at the local scale, a Coastal Upwelling Index (CUI) and a coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) index, and on a large scale, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), using correlations and times series analyses. The results showed that the abundance of sardinella is determined by a strong seasonal pattern and inter‐annual fluctuations. The abundance of S. aurita peaked in spring and in autumn, whereas that of S. maderensis peaked in the warm season (July–September). The trend of the sardinella abundance was significantly correlated with the CUI, especially in autumn and spring. Interannual fluctuations of S. maderensis and S. aurita abundance are, respectively, driven by the precocity and the duration of the upwelling season that is attributed to distinct migration patterns. Both sardinella species also respond with a delay of around 4 years to the winter NAO index and the autumn CUI, and the AMO index, respectively, both related to migration patterns. The wide variations in sardinella biomass are caused by variations in environmental conditions, which should be considered in the implementation of an ecosystem‐based approach in sardinella stocks management.  相似文献   

10.
The presence of zoonotic Hysterothylacium larvae in fish from Spanish Atlantic and Mediterranean waters, which can cause economic losses for commercial fisheries, has been reported in several studies; however, little is known about species identity in this region. The aim of this study was to identify at species level the Hysterothylacium morphotypes detected in three commonly consumed fish: horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus). Third‐ and fourth‐stage Hysterothylacium larvae, as well as adults obtained from larval in vitro culture, were morphologically and molecularly identified by ITS1/ITS2 rDNA sequencing. Four Hysterothylacium morphotypes were detected. Genetic analysis showed that morphotypes VIII and IX were different larval stages of Hysterothylacium aduncum, which was supported by cultured adult species identification. Morphotypes III and IV were found to correspond to different developmental stages of another species of Hysterothylacium. As all larval types detected were morphologically indistinguishable from others previously reported yet showed clear genetic differences, they are referred here as new genotypes. This is the first time that ITS‐sequence data of various developmental stages of the same species, including adults, have been studied and compared, providing crucial knowledge for future studies on Hysterothylacium identification and biology.  相似文献   

11.
Time series analyses (Box–Jenkins models) were used to study the influence of river runoff and wind mixing index on the productivity of the two most abundant species of small pelagic fish exploited in waters surrounding the Ebre (Ebro) River continental shelf (north‐western Mediterranean): anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus). River flow and wind were selected because they are known to enhance fertilization and local planktonic production, thus being crucial for the survival of fish larvae. Time series of the two environmental variables and landings of the two species were analysed to extract the trend and seasonality. All series displayed important seasonal and interannual fluctuations. In the long term, landings of anchovy declined while those of sardine increased. At the seasonal scale, landings of anchovy peaked during spring/summer while those of sardine peaked during spring and autumn. Seasonality in landings of anchovy was stronger than in sardine. Concerning the environmental series, monthly average Ebre runoff showed a progressive decline from 1960 until the late 1980s, and the wind mixing index was highest during 1994–96. Within the annual cycle, the minimum river flow occurs from July to October and the wind mixing peaks in winter (December–April, excluding January). The results of the analyses showed a significant correlation between monthly landings of anchovy and freshwater input of the Ebre River during the spawning season of this species (April–August), with a time lag of 12 months. In contrast, monthly landings of sardine were significantly positively correlated with the wind mixing index during the spawning season of this species (November–March), with a lag of 18 months. The results provide evidence of the influence of riverine inputs and wind mixing on the productivity of small pelagic fish in the north‐western Mediterranean. The time lags obtained in the relationships stress the importance of river runoff and wind mixing for the early stages of anchovy and sardine, respectively, and their impact on recruitment.  相似文献   

12.
Increases in gelatinous zooplankton (GZ) populations, their dominance of some ecosystems, their impacts to other taxa, and their questionable trophic value remain global concerns, but they are difficult to quantify. We compared trends in GZ abundance from direct sampling for the northeast U.S. continental shelf and tested their association with GZ consumption by spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias); the abundance of two benthic scavengers: Atlantic hagfish (Myxine glutinosa) and grenadiers (Family: Macrouridae); and four environmental indices: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and sea surface and bottom temperatures. Defined as scyphozoans, siphonophores, ctenophores, and salps, the abundance of GZ on the shelf has oscillated with blooms approximately every 10–15 yr. Conservative estimates of annual removal of GZ by spiny dogfish ranged from approximately 0.3–298 g individual?1 with spiny dogfish being the primary GZ feeder sampled on the shelf. The examination of three abundance series for GZ identified one shelf‐wide trend and strong relationships with 2‐yr lagged consumption and scavenger abundance (namely hagfish), and sea surface temperature. With multimodel inference, these covariates led to an optimal model of GZ abundance. Blooms of GZ abundance on this shelf were influenced by environmental change, provide surges of food for spiny dogfish, and may offer ‘food falls’ for scavenging fishes. The bioenergetic tradeoffs of consuming greater amounts of GZ compared to other major prey (e.g., fishes) remain unknown; however, these surges of food in the northwest Atlantic appear to be important for fishes, including support for benthic scavenger productivity.  相似文献   

13.
Gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata L.) aquaculture has rapidly spread around the Mediterranean Sea. Fish escapes from sea cages are one of the major problems for the industry and also represent a threat to the marine environment. Fishery catches are also influenced by escape events, being mirrored in increased landings of cultured species. However, within the Mediterranean, studies shedding light on the incidence of escaped individuals in fisheries landings are scarce. Firstly, the present study describes a simple scale‐examination methodology to distinguish escaped from wild S. aurata landed by coastal fisheries. Secondarily, the incidence of escapees is assessed within landings of the species in the western Mediterranean. The scale readings revealed a monthly incidence of escapees between 11.2 and 20.8%, representing 6.8% of the total income derived from these landings. Moreover, morphological differences between wild fish captured near and far from fish farms point towards escape events as a source of potential genetic admixture between cultured and wild genotypes. Socio‐economic and ecological implications of escapees are discussed, and a set of management guidelines proposed, to prevent and/or mitigate the negative influences of escaped fish on the ecosystem and traditional users of the coast such as fisheries.  相似文献   

14.
The consequence of elevated ocean temperatures on commercial fish stocks is addressed using time series of commercial landings (1906–2004) and juvenile survey catch data (1904–2006) collected around Denmark. We analyze (i) whether warm‐water sole (Solea solea) has increased relative to Boreal plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) and (ii) whether two related warm‐water species (turbot, Psetta maxima and brill, Scophthalmus rhombus) show similar responses to increasing temperature or, alternatively, whether turbot (which has a broader juvenile diet) has been favored. Since the early 1980s, both sole and turbot have constituted an increasing part of the commercial landings and survey catches, as compared with plaice and brill, respectively. These changes in species composition were linked to sea surface temperatures, Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies (NHA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation. NHA was closely related and explained 43% of the observed variation in sole survey catches relative to the plaice catches and almost 38% of the observed variation in the sole landings relative to the plaice landings. For the less common species, turbot and brill, none of the global change indicators explained more than 15% of the variation, although all showed a positive relationship. Survey catch per unit effort increased significantly for both sole and turbot around the early 1980s, whereas catch per unit effort for plaice and brill remained constant. The results indicate that the abundance of warm‐water species is likely to increase with increasing temperature but also that species with similar life histories might react differently according to degree of specialization.  相似文献   

15.
Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is one of the commercially most important fish species in the North Atlantic and plays a central role in several ecosystems. Fishing pressure has been heavy over a prolonged period and the recent decades have shown dramatic decline in abundance of many stocks. The Arcto‐Norwegian (or North‐east Arctic) cod stock in the Barents Sea is now the largest stock of Atlantic cod. Recruitment to this stock has varied extensively during the last 60 yr. There is evidence for fluctuations in climate, particularly sea temperature, being a main cause for this variability, higher temperatures being favourable for survival throughout the critical early life stages. Our studies of time series present compelling evidence for a strengthening of the climate–cod recruitment link during the last decades. We suggest this is an effect of the age and length composition of the spawning stock having changed distinctly. The age of the average spawner has decreased by more than 3 yr from between 10 and 11 in the late 1940s to 7–8 in the 1990s, average length from just above 90 cm to around 80 cm. The number of age classes contributing to the spawning stock has also decreased, while the number of length groups present increased slightly. Significant decrease in age of spawners has frequently been described for other heavily fished stocks worldwide. We therefore find it likely that the proposed mechanism of increased influence of climate on recruitment through changes in the spawning stock age and size composition is of a general nature and might be found in other systems.  相似文献   

16.
Meta‐analysis of marine biological resources can elucidate general trends and patterns to inform scientists and improve management. Crustacean stocks are indispensable for European and global fisheries; however, studies of their aggregate development have been rare and confined to smaller spatial and temporal scales compared to fish stocks. Here, we study the aggregate development of 63 NE Atlantic and Mediterranean crustacean stocks of six species (Nephrops norvegicus, Pandalus borealis, Parapenaeus longirostris, Aristeus antennatus, Aristaeomorpha foliacea and Squilla mantis) in 1990–2013 using biomass index data from official stock assessments. We implemented a dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to identify common underlying trends in biomass indices and investigate the correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The analysis revealed increasing and decreasing trends in the northern and southern NE Atlantic, respectively, and stable or slowly increasing trends in the Mediterranean, which were not related to NAO. A separate meta‐analysis of the fishing mortality (F) and biomass (B) of 39 analytically assessed crustacean stocks was also carried out to explore their development relative to MSY. NE Atlantic crustacean stocks have been exploited on average close to FMSY and remained well above BMSY in 1995–2013, while Mediterranean stocks have been exploited 2–4 times above FMSY in 2002–2012. Aggregate trends of European crustacean stocks are somewhat opposite to trends of fish stocks, suggesting possible cascading effects. This study highlights the two‐speed fisheries management performance in the northern and southern European seas, despite most stocks being managed in the context of the European Union's Common Fisheries Policy.  相似文献   

17.
The Gulf of Lions is one of the main anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) spawning areas in the NW Mediterranean. During the spring, low‐salinity surface water from the outflow of the Rhône is advected by the shelf‐slope current along the continental slope off the Catalan coast. In June 2000, a Lagrangian experiment tracking these low‐salinity surface waters was conducted to assess the importance of this transport mechanism for anchovy larvae and to determine the suitability of the tracked surface waters for survival of anchovy larvae. The experiment consisted of sampling the tracked water parcel for 10 days with three drifters launched at the core of the shelf‐slope current where low‐salinity surface waters were detected. The survey was completed by sampling the surrounding waters. Anchovy larvae from the spawning area in the Gulf of Lions were advected towards the south in the low‐salinity waters. The size increase of anchovy larvae throughout the Lagrangian tracking closely followed the general growth rate calculated by otolith analysis (0.65 mm day−1). However, advection by the current was not the only mechanism of anchovy larval transport. A series of anticyclonic eddies, originated in the Gulf of Lions and advected southwards, seemed to play a complementary role in the transport of larvae from the spawning ground towards the nursery areas. These eddies not only contributed to larval transport but also prevented their dispersion. These transport and aggregation mechanisms may be important for anchovy populations along the Catalan coast and require further study.  相似文献   

18.
European eel decline is now widely observed and involves a large number of factors such as overfishing, pollution, habitat loss, dam construction, river obstruction, parasitism and environmental changes. In the present study, we analyzed the influence of environmental conditions in the Sargasso Sea and Atlantic ocean circulation on European glass eel recruitment success. Over a recent 11‐yr period, we showed a strong positive correlation between an original index of glass eel recruitment and primary production (PP) in eel spawning area. Moreover, PP was negatively correlated with temperature in the Sargasso Sea. Therefore, we used sea temperature as an inverse proxy of marine production. A close negative relationship has been found over the last four decades between long‐term fluctuations in recruitment and in sea temperature. These findings were reinforced by the detection of a regime shift in sea temperature that preceded the start of the decline in glass eel recruitment in the early 1980s. By contrast, variations in integrative indices measuring ocean circulation, i.e. latitude and strength of the Gulf Stream, did not seem to explain variations in glass eel recruitment. Our results support the hypothesis of a strong bottom‐up control of leptocephali survival and growth by PP in the Sargasso Sea on short and long time scales. We argue that sea warming in the eel spawning area since the early 1980s has modified marine production and eventually affected the survival rate of European eels at early life stages.  相似文献   

19.
The distribution of egg and larvae of mackerel, horse mackerel, sardine, hake, megrim, blue whiting and anchovy along the European Atlantic waters (south Portugal to Scotland) during 1998 is described. Time of the year, sea surface temperature and bottom depth are used to define the spawning habitat of the different species. Mackerel, horse mackerel, and sardine eggs and larvae presented the widest distribution, whereas megrim and anchovy showed a limited distribution, restricted to the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay respectively. Correspondingly mackerel, horse mackerel and sardine showed the highest aggregation indices. Blue whiting larvae were found at the lowest temperatures, whereas anchovy eggs and larvae were found in the warmest waters. The analysis is a basis for evaluation of ongoing changes in the pelagic ecosystem of the north‐east Atlantic.  相似文献   

20.
This paper uses objective classification methods, a combination of principal components analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis, applied to long-term average data, to define areas of similar seasonal patterns of whiting abundance in Scottish waters, based on fishery data on landings and effort (by month and by ICES rectangle). A geographic information system (GIS) is used to qualitatively describe the relationships of these spatial patterns of whiting abundance with (a) trawl survey catch rates by age-class, and (b) environmental factors. The results show that the spatial patterns of whiting abundance are related to age, as well as to depth and to spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) in winter. The area (within the North Sea) of highest whiting abundance, and the largest seasonal change in whiting abundance, corresponds to the area of highest survey catch rates for older (>2 years old) whiting in winter, a particular spatial pattern of SST in winter and water depths of 100–200 m. This spatial pattern of SST may indicate an effect of the inflow of the North Atlantic water. This study provides a guide for selecting study areas for future quantitative analysis and the methods proposed may also provide a useful management tool.  相似文献   

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