STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRE IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE

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Addressing climate change in the forest vegetation simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to climate and using it to modify growth rates, and (3) adding functions accounting for changing growth rates due to climate-induced genetic responses. For three climatically diverse landscapes, simulations were used to explore the change in species composition and tree growth that should accompany climate change during the 21st century. The simulations illustrated the changes in forest composition that could accompany climate change. Projections were the most sensitive to mortality, as the loss of trees of a dominant species heavily influenced stand dynamics. While additional work is needed on fundamental plant–climate relationships, this work incorporates climatic effects into FVS to produce a new model called Climate–FVS. This model provides for managers a tool that allows climate change impacts to be incorporated in forest plans.     

Potential impacts of a climate change on forest ecosystems

Review of literature indicates that many uncertainties and assumptions exist in predicting the impacts of a climate change on forest ecosystems. However, current knowledge is sufficient to encourage any measures that are combating climate change, that is to reduce first and foremost the release of harmful substances to the atmosphere, lithosphere and biosphere.     

Selecting tree species for testing climate change migration hypotheses using forest inventory data

The lack of objective tree species lists hinders the assessment of climate change effects on tree species distributions. The goal of this study was to develop and evaluate criteria for selecting tree species used in large-scale tree migration monitoring efforts. The results of this study indicate that tree migration conclusions are highly dependant on the species selected for examination. It was found that tree species’ median latitudes or forecasted future areas provided objective criteria for development of species lists for migration hypothesis testing with the latter being insensitive to simulation error. Furthermore, only 10–15 of the top species, in terms of high median latitudes or loss in forecasted future area, are needed to maximize the sensitivity of a migration index. The use of such criteria in this study indicated a northward shift of sensitive tree populations of 27 km. It is suggested that examining species only the most likely to migrate serves as an objective starting point for migration detection. In contrast, the inclusion of all tree species commonly observed in large-scale forest inventories can obfuscate migration detection with tree species that have little ecological reason to immediately migrate in a changing climate.     

Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups

In this study, the overall utility of forest management alternatives at the forest management unit level is evaluated with regard to multi-purpose and multi-user settings by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is based on an additive utility model. The relative importance of partial objectives of forest management (carbon sequestration, ground water recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) is defined in cooperation with stakeholders. The forest growth model 4C (Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) is used to simulate the impact of six forest management strategies and climate on forest functions. Two climate change scenarios represent uncertainties with regard to future climatic conditions. The study is based on actual forest conditions in the Kleinsee management unit in east Germany, which is dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl.) stands. First, there is an analysis of the impact of climate and forest management on forest functions. Climate change increases carbon sequestration and income from timber production due to increased stand productivity. Secondly, the overall utility of the management strategies is compared under the priority settings of different stakeholder groups. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate due to high biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions.     

Extreme events and climate change: the post-disaster dynamics of forest fires and forest storms in Sweden

How are extreme events understood in the forest sector? What are the implications of forest professionals' understandings and evaluations of extreme events? These questions are central to this study, which analyses the handling of the largest forest storm and the largest forest fire in modern Swedish history. The theoretical approach is that of risk governance in practice, which stresses that understanding the framings, practices and strategies used by members of professional organizations is pivotal for how disasters are managed. Two interview studies have been conducted with forest professionals involved in the two cases. The analysis shows that there were fundamentally different understandings of the two events and their implications for forestry practice. The storm was seen as an unavoidable natural disaster, but the consequences of future storms were considered possible to mitigate through changed forest practices. The forest fire, on the other hand, was conceptualized as a partly natural and partly man-made disaster, and forestry was seen as having very limited possibilities to reduce the likelihood as well as the consequences of similar events. The different understandings had significant implications for the post-disaster dynamics and for which management practices that were developed. Thus, understanding how extreme events are perceived is crucial to understanding which management practices that emerge in their wake, a topic of growing relevance because climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of forest fires and storms.     

Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies (Karst) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica (L) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalised linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Württemberg, a digital elevation model, and regionalised climate parameters from the period 1970 to 2000. Two scenarios from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (B1, A2) for three different time scales (2030, 2065, and 2100) were investigated. The GLM predicted a decrease of the suitable area for growing Norway spruce between 21% (B1, 2030) and 93% (A2, 2100) in comparison to 2000. This corresponds to a reduction in the potential area of Norway spruce from between 190,000 and 860,000 ha. The financial effect of this reduction in area was then evaluated by using a classical Faustmann approach, namely the land expectation value (LEV) as an economic parameter for forests of Norway spruce versus European beech. Underlying cash flows were derived from a distance dependent, single-tree growth simulator (SILVA) based on data for prices and costs of the year 2004. With an interest rate of r = 2%, the predicted loss in the potential area of Norway spruce is related to a decrease of the LEV between 690 million and 3.1 billion Euro. We discuss the sensitivity of these results to changing interest rates, risk levels, and rotation lengths. Results suggest that managing forestland for profitability will be increasingly difficult under both climate scenarios.     

大气CO2升高和气候变化对森林的影响——国内近五年研究概况

本概述了国内过去５年中,在大气ＣＯ２倍增和气候变化条件下,对树木个体,森林生产力,森植被带影响的研究。     

Risks to forest carbon offset projects in a changing climate

When included as part of a larger greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction program, forest offsets may provide low-cost opportunities for GHG mitigation. One barrier to including forest offsets in climate policy is the risk of reversal, the intentional or unintentional release of carbon back to the atmosphere due to storms, fire, pests, land use decisions, and many other factors. To address this shortcoming, a variety of different strategies have emerged to minimize either the risk or the financial and environmental implications of reversal. These strategies range from management decisions made at the individual stand level to buffers and set-asides that function across entire trading programs. For such strategies to work, the actual risk and magnitude of potential reversals need to be clearly understood. In this paper we examine three factors that are likely to influence reversal risk: natural disturbances (such as storms, fire, and insect outbreaks), climate change, and landowner behavior. Although increases in atmospheric CO₂ and to a lesser extent warming will likely bring benefits to some forest ecosystems, temperature stress may result in others. Furthermore, optimism based on experimental results of physiology and growth must be tempered with knowledge that future large-scale disturbances and extreme weather events are also likely to increase. At the individual project level, management strategies such as manipulation of forest structure, age, and composition can be used to influence carbon sequestration and reversal risk. Because some management strategies have the potential to maximize risk or carbon objectives at the expense of the other, policymakers should ensure that forest offset policies and programs do not provide the singular incentive to maximize carbon storage. Given the scale and magnitude of potential disturbance events in the future, however, management decisions at the individual project level may be insufficient to adequately address reversal risk; other, non-silvicultural strategies and policy mechanisms may be necessary. We conclude with a brief review of policy mechanisms that have been developed or proposed to help manage or mitigate reversal risk at both individual project and policy-wide scales.     

Forest vegetation responses to climate and environmental change: A case study from Changbai Mountain, NE China

The distribution of plant species has always been altered by changing climatic conditions. Nonetheless, the potential for species’ range shift responses has recently become severely limited, as exceptionally fast temperature changes coincide with a high degree of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. This study provides rare insights into the effects current temperature increases have on pristine temperate forest ecosystems, using the forests of Changbai Mountain, NE China, as a case study. On the northern slopes of the mountain at elevations between 750 and 2100 m, the composition of trees, shrubs and herbaceous species was recorded on 60 plots in 1963 and 2006/07. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) were used to establish the response of plant diversity and plant distribution patterns to environmental conditions. Climatic factors proved important in explaining the spatio-temporal trends within the vegetation. The composition of dominant trees remained mostly unchanged over the last 43 years, reflecting a very slow response of the forest canopy to environmental change. The composition of young trees, shrubs and herb species showed varied changes in the different forest types. A homogeneous species composition in the cohort of regenerating trees indicates an increased future uniformity in the mixed broadleaved and coniferous forest. The understory vegetation of high elevation birch forests was invaded by floristic elements of the lower-elevation coniferous forests. Both these trends pose potential threats to forests plant diversity. Future research investigating climate change responses in forest canopy composition needs to be based on even longer timescales, while investigations in the near future need to pay particular attention to the changes in the distribution of rare and threatened herbaceous species.     

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.     

Exploring adaptation to climate change in the forests of central Nova Scotia, Canada

The threat of climate change is now recognized as an imminent issue at the forefront of the forest sector. Incorporating adaptation to climate change into forest management will be vital in the continual and sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to investigate climate change adaptation in forest management using the landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II. The study area was comprised of 14,000 ha of forested watersheds in central Nova Scotia, Canada, managed by Halifax Water, the municipal water utility. Simulated climate change adaptation was directed towards three components of timber harvesting: the canopy-opening size of harvests, the age of harvested trees within a stand, and the species composition of harvested trees within a stand. These three adaptation treatments were simulated singly and in combination with each other in the modeling experiment. The timber supply was found to benefit from climate change in the absence of any adaptation treatment, though there was a loss of target tree species and old growth forest. In the age treatment, all trees in a harvested stand at or below the age of sexual maturity were exempt from harvesting. This was done to promote more-rapid succession to climax forest communities typical of the study area. It was the most effective in maintaining the timber supply, but least effective in promoting resistance to climate change at the prescribed harvest intensity. In the composition treatment, individual tree species were selected for harvest based on their response to climate change in previous research and on management values at Halifax Water to progressively facilitate forest transition under the altered climate. This proved the most effective treatment for maximizing forest age and old-growth area and for promoting stands composed of climatically suited target species. The size treatment was aimed towards building stand complexity and resilience to climate change, and was the most influential treatment on the response of timber supply, forest age, and forest composition to timber harvest when it was combined with other treatments. The combination of all three adaptation treatments yielded an adequate representation of target species and old forest without overly diminishing the timber supply, and was therefore the most effective in minimizing the trade-offs between management values and objectives. These findings support a diverse and multi-faceted approach to climate change adaptation.     

Integrated methodology to assess windthrow impacts on forest stands under climate change

Storms have a high potential to cause severe ecological and economic losses in forests. We performed a logistic regression analysis to create a storm damage sensitivity index for North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, based on damage data of the storm event “Kyrill”. Future storm conditions were derived from two regional climate models. We combined these measures to an impact metric, which is embedded in a broader vulnerability framework and quantifies the impacts of winter storms under climate change until 2060. Sensitivity of forest stands to windthrow was mainly driven by a high proportion of coniferous trees, a complex orography and poor quality soils. Both climate models simulated an increase in the frequency of severe storms, whereby differences between regions and models were substantial. Potential impacts will increase although they will vary among regions with the highest impacts in the mountainous regions. Our results emphasise the need for combining storm damage sensitivity with climate change signals in order to develop forest protection measures.     

A forest biomass yield table based on an empirical model

We report an empirical model for estimating unutilized wood biomass, and its application to Cryptomeria japonica D. Don and Larix kaempferi in Tohno City, Iwate Prefecture, northeast Japan. Outputs from the model are the quantity of unutilized wood biomass and merchantable volume produced by timber harvest. The unutilized wood biomass is divided into stumps, tops, branches, foliages, small trees, and unutilized stems due to their defects. Inputs to the model are mean diameter at breast height (DBH), mean tree height, trees per unit area, and timber utilization standards. DBH distribution, DBH–height curve, stem form, bark thickness, and relationship of stem biomass to foliage and branch biomass could be described by the proposed model, indicating its validity. The proposed model enables us to develop the forest biomass yield tables modified from the existing stem volume yield tables. The developed forest biomass yield tables indicated that the unutilized wood biomass due to defects accounted for the largest part of the whole unutilized wood biomass, and that the ratio of unutilized parts in stem volume to total stem volume could vary with stand age and site productivity class. Based on a comparison of the developed forest biomass yield tables with those reported previously, we concluded that the proposed model-based forest biomass yield table would be useful for estimating the quantity of unutilized wood biomass.     

Carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland under different cutting and climate scenarios

In this work the aim was to determine how carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland is dependent on the forest management and increased production potential due to climate change. This was analysed for the period 2003–2053 using forest inventory data and the forestry model MELA. Four combinations of two climate change and two management scenarios were studied: current (CU) and gradually warming (CC) climate and forest management strategies corresponding to different rates of utilisation of the cutting potential, namely maximum sustainable removal (Sust) or maximum net present value (NPV) of wood production (Max). In this analysis of Finland, the initial amount of carbon in the growing stock was 765 Mt (2,802 Tg CO₂). At the end of the simulation, the carbon in the growing stock of trees in Finland had increased to 894 Mt (3,275 Tg CO₂) under CUSust, 906 Mt (3,321 Tg CO₂) under CUMax, 1,060 Mt (3,885 Tg CO₂) under CCSust and 1,026 Mt (3,758 Tg CO₂) under CCMax. The results show that future development of carbon in the growing stock is not only dependent on climate change scenarios but also on forest management. For example, maximising the NPV of wood production without sustainability constraints results, over the short term, in a large amount of wood obtained in regeneration cuttings and a consequent decrease in the amount of carbon in growing stock. Over the longer term, this decrease in the carbon of growing stock in regenerated forests is compensated by the subsequent increase in fast-growing young forests. By comparison, no drastic short-term decrease in carbon stock was found in the Sust scenarios; only minor decreases were observed.     

Using the LANDIS model to evaluate forest harvesting and planting strategies under possible warming climates in Northeastern China

The Small Khingan Mountains in northeastern China provide most of the timber and wood products in the country. Evaluating the long-term effects of harvesting and planting strategies is important especially as the climate changes. In this study, we evaluated the effects of the projected climate warming on potential changes in species’ coverage (percent cover), area harvested (percentage of the study area) and species harvested, using the LANDIS model. Our evaluation was based on the harvest and planting plans specified in Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP). Our simulated results show that the coverage of southern species such as Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and ribbed birch (Betula costata) increases, whereas the coverage of northern species like larch (Larix gmelinii), Kingan fir (Abies nephrolepis), spruces (Picea koraiensis and P. jezoensis) and Dahur birch (Betula davurica) decreases under the warming climate in the region. The species harvested primarily consist of the southern species, especially deciduous species under the warming climate. The warming climate leads to 11.2% increase in area harvested compared to that under the current climate, when planting is not simulated. When planting is simulated, tradeoffs between planting and area harvested are complex. The area harvested only increases in places where moderate planting is implemented, and decreases in places with both low (≤5% area planted) and high (≥30%) planting percentage. This is because when the planting percentage is low, the rate of increase of harvestable species due to planting is lower than the rate of decrease of warming-declining species. When the planting percentage is high, the rate of increase of planted species is higher than the rate of colonization of warming-adapted deciduous species, and the planted species delay the establishment of the warming-adaptable species that have short harvest rotations (due to lower harvestable ages). Our results suggest that the management strategy with planting area of 20% is the best among all the scenarios simulated. Under this warming climate, moderate planting area (e.g. 20%) increases the area harvested to about 43%, which is still less than that (58%) designated in the NFPP. These results have important implications for forest managers designing sustainable forest harvest and reforestation strategies for the landscape under the warming climate.     

Dynamics and management of Alaska boreal forest: An all-aged multi-species matrix growth model

Studies on the dynamics of Alaska boreal forest are sporadic and rare, and forest management in the region has been conducted in the absence of a useful growth model. This paper presents a matrix stand growth model to study the dynamics and management of Alaska's boreal forest, with harvests and artificial regeneration being accounted for. The model was calibrated with data from 446 constantly monitored permanent sample plots distributed across interior and south-central Alaska, and was tested to be accurate on an independent validation sample. The present model was applied on a most frequent commercial stand in interior Alaska to study a forest management regime that is being commonly used in the region. The simulation was for 300 years with a 40-year cutting cycle, and management outcomes under various permafrost levels and site elevations were investigated with sensitivity analysis. Despite the comparatively low financial returns, current management regime may generally benefit wildlife species by maintaining continuous forest cover and decent stand diversity, and properly managed forests had potential for timber production and wood-based energy. It was predicted by the model that both permafrost and site elevation had substantial impact on the management outcomes. Other variables being held constant at sample mean, net present value of harvests increased from $434 to $831 ha⁻¹ and the annual volume of harvest more than tripled from 1.68 to 5.75 m³ ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ as permafrost declined from obvious to unlikely. Managers were also advised to focus on stands on medium elevation (300 m), as stands on lower or higher elevations were expected to produce less harvested volume and net present value. For rural Alaska communities suffering from expensive heating costs, it was suggested that approximately 20 ha of properly managed forest could sustain a household's annual heating requirement, while continuous forest coverage and decent diversity could still be maintained.     

Modelling diameter class distribution with a second-order matrix model

Matrix models of forest dynamics rely on four hypotheses: independence hypothesis, Markov’s hypothesis, Usher’s hypothesis, and temporal homogeneity hypothesis. We investigate the consequences of relaxing Markov’s hypothesis, allowing the state of the tree at time t to depend on its states at time t−1 and t−2. The methodology for building and testing the relevance of second-order matrix model is thus proposed. The derivation of second-order transition probabilities turns to be sensitive to the width of the diameter classes. A strategy for choosing diameter classes is proposed. A second-order matrix model is then built for a tropical rain-forest in French Guiana. A different behaviour is detected between small (dbh ≤30 cm) and large trees, the smaller trees being more sensitive to their past history: small trees that have well grown have a tendency to grow well again, and small trees that have not grown tend to have a higher probability to die. The widths of the diameter classes that are selected are much less than the widths usually retained, that favour first-order selection.     

The effects of topography on forest soil characteristics in the Oregon Cascade Mountains (USA): Implications for the effects of climate change on soil properties

Forest soil measurements were made at over 180 sites distributed throughout the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) in the Oregon Cascade Mountains. The influences of both elevation and aspect on soil variables were measured in the early (1998) and late summer (1994). Increased elevation significantly increased soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, soil organic matter, labile C and mineralizable N, microbial activities, extractable ammonium, and denitrification potentials. In contrast, bulk density, pH and soil temperature (1998 only) were significantly lower at the higher elevations. Relative to labile C, mineralizable N was preferentially sequestered at higher elevations. Aspect significantly affected annual mean temperature and precipitation, soil moisture and temperature, soil organic matter, mineralizable N, extractable ammonium, denitrification, and microbial activities. There were no significant higher statistical interactions between elevation and aspect on climatic or soil factors. Soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation at higher elevations is likely driven by a reduction in decomposition rates rather that an increase in primary productivity, however, SOM accumulation on north facing slopes is probably due to both a decrease in decomposition and an increase in primary production. Models of climate change effects on temperate forest soils based on elevational studies may not apply to aspect gradients since plant productivity may not respond to temperature–moisture gradients in the same way across all topographical features.     

Integrating climate change into forest management in South-Central British Columbia: An assessment of landscape vulnerability and development of a climate-smart framework

The achievement of sustainable forest management requires the incorporation of risk and uncertainty into long-term planning. Climatic change will have significant impacts on natural disturbances, species and ecosystems, particularly on landscapes influenced by forest management. Understanding where vulnerabilities lie is important in managing the risks associated directly or indirectly with climatic change. The vulnerability of landscapes to natural disturbances, the resilience of ecosystems and distribution of species are all important components that need to be considered when undertaking forest planning, but climatic change is rarely factored into such planning. In this study, the vulnerability of fire potential, fire regimes, ecosystems and species to climatic change was modelled for a 145,000 ha landscape in the south-central interior of British Columbia, Canada. The results from these analyses were used to guide forest zoning, using the triad zoning framework, and for the development of a “climate-smart” management framework. The use of climate-smart management is advocated as a decision-making framework for managing forested landscapes based on an understanding of landscape vulnerability to future climatic change. From this understanding, the maintenance of ecosystem health and vitality could be achieved.