Addressing climate change in the forest vegetation simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to climate and using it to modify growth rates, and (3) adding functions accounting for changing growth rates due to climate-induced genetic responses. For three climatically diverse landscapes, simulations were used to explore the change in species composition and tree growth that should accompany climate change during the 21st century. The simulations illustrated the changes in forest composition that could accompany climate change. Projections were the most sensitive to mortality, as the loss of trees of a dominant species heavily influenced stand dynamics. While additional work is needed on fundamental plant–climate relationships, this work incorporates climatic effects into FVS to produce a new model called Climate–FVS. This model provides for managers a tool that allows climate change impacts to be incorporated in forest plans.     

Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups

In this study, the overall utility of forest management alternatives at the forest management unit level is evaluated with regard to multi-purpose and multi-user settings by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is based on an additive utility model. The relative importance of partial objectives of forest management (carbon sequestration, ground water recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) is defined in cooperation with stakeholders. The forest growth model 4C (Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) is used to simulate the impact of six forest management strategies and climate on forest functions. Two climate change scenarios represent uncertainties with regard to future climatic conditions. The study is based on actual forest conditions in the Kleinsee management unit in east Germany, which is dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl.) stands. First, there is an analysis of the impact of climate and forest management on forest functions. Climate change increases carbon sequestration and income from timber production due to increased stand productivity. Secondly, the overall utility of the management strategies is compared under the priority settings of different stakeholder groups. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate due to high biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions.     

Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies (Karst) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica (L) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalised linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Württemberg, a digital elevation model, and regionalised climate parameters from the period 1970 to 2000. Two scenarios from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (B1, A2) for three different time scales (2030, 2065, and 2100) were investigated. The GLM predicted a decrease of the suitable area for growing Norway spruce between 21% (B1, 2030) and 93% (A2, 2100) in comparison to 2000. This corresponds to a reduction in the potential area of Norway spruce from between 190,000 and 860,000 ha. The financial effect of this reduction in area was then evaluated by using a classical Faustmann approach, namely the land expectation value (LEV) as an economic parameter for forests of Norway spruce versus European beech. Underlying cash flows were derived from a distance dependent, single-tree growth simulator (SILVA) based on data for prices and costs of the year 2004. With an interest rate of r = 2%, the predicted loss in the potential area of Norway spruce is related to a decrease of the LEV between 690 million and 3.1 billion Euro. We discuss the sensitivity of these results to changing interest rates, risk levels, and rotation lengths. Results suggest that managing forestland for profitability will be increasingly difficult under both climate scenarios.     

Risks to forest carbon offset projects in a changing climate

When included as part of a larger greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction program, forest offsets may provide low-cost opportunities for GHG mitigation. One barrier to including forest offsets in climate policy is the risk of reversal, the intentional or unintentional release of carbon back to the atmosphere due to storms, fire, pests, land use decisions, and many other factors. To address this shortcoming, a variety of different strategies have emerged to minimize either the risk or the financial and environmental implications of reversal. These strategies range from management decisions made at the individual stand level to buffers and set-asides that function across entire trading programs. For such strategies to work, the actual risk and magnitude of potential reversals need to be clearly understood. In this paper we examine three factors that are likely to influence reversal risk: natural disturbances (such as storms, fire, and insect outbreaks), climate change, and landowner behavior. Although increases in atmospheric CO₂ and to a lesser extent warming will likely bring benefits to some forest ecosystems, temperature stress may result in others. Furthermore, optimism based on experimental results of physiology and growth must be tempered with knowledge that future large-scale disturbances and extreme weather events are also likely to increase. At the individual project level, management strategies such as manipulation of forest structure, age, and composition can be used to influence carbon sequestration and reversal risk. Because some management strategies have the potential to maximize risk or carbon objectives at the expense of the other, policymakers should ensure that forest offset policies and programs do not provide the singular incentive to maximize carbon storage. Given the scale and magnitude of potential disturbance events in the future, however, management decisions at the individual project level may be insufficient to adequately address reversal risk; other, non-silvicultural strategies and policy mechanisms may be necessary. We conclude with a brief review of policy mechanisms that have been developed or proposed to help manage or mitigate reversal risk at both individual project and policy-wide scales.     

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.     

Exploring adaptation to climate change in the forests of central Nova Scotia, Canada

The threat of climate change is now recognized as an imminent issue at the forefront of the forest sector. Incorporating adaptation to climate change into forest management will be vital in the continual and sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to investigate climate change adaptation in forest management using the landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II. The study area was comprised of 14,000 ha of forested watersheds in central Nova Scotia, Canada, managed by Halifax Water, the municipal water utility. Simulated climate change adaptation was directed towards three components of timber harvesting: the canopy-opening size of harvests, the age of harvested trees within a stand, and the species composition of harvested trees within a stand. These three adaptation treatments were simulated singly and in combination with each other in the modeling experiment. The timber supply was found to benefit from climate change in the absence of any adaptation treatment, though there was a loss of target tree species and old growth forest. In the age treatment, all trees in a harvested stand at or below the age of sexual maturity were exempt from harvesting. This was done to promote more-rapid succession to climax forest communities typical of the study area. It was the most effective in maintaining the timber supply, but least effective in promoting resistance to climate change at the prescribed harvest intensity. In the composition treatment, individual tree species were selected for harvest based on their response to climate change in previous research and on management values at Halifax Water to progressively facilitate forest transition under the altered climate. This proved the most effective treatment for maximizing forest age and old-growth area and for promoting stands composed of climatically suited target species. The size treatment was aimed towards building stand complexity and resilience to climate change, and was the most influential treatment on the response of timber supply, forest age, and forest composition to timber harvest when it was combined with other treatments. The combination of all three adaptation treatments yielded an adequate representation of target species and old forest without overly diminishing the timber supply, and was therefore the most effective in minimizing the trade-offs between management values and objectives. These findings support a diverse and multi-faceted approach to climate change adaptation.     

A forest biomass yield table based on an empirical model

We report an empirical model for estimating unutilized wood biomass, and its application to Cryptomeria japonica D. Don and Larix kaempferi in Tohno City, Iwate Prefecture, northeast Japan. Outputs from the model are the quantity of unutilized wood biomass and merchantable volume produced by timber harvest. The unutilized wood biomass is divided into stumps, tops, branches, foliages, small trees, and unutilized stems due to their defects. Inputs to the model are mean diameter at breast height (DBH), mean tree height, trees per unit area, and timber utilization standards. DBH distribution, DBH–height curve, stem form, bark thickness, and relationship of stem biomass to foliage and branch biomass could be described by the proposed model, indicating its validity. The proposed model enables us to develop the forest biomass yield tables modified from the existing stem volume yield tables. The developed forest biomass yield tables indicated that the unutilized wood biomass due to defects accounted for the largest part of the whole unutilized wood biomass, and that the ratio of unutilized parts in stem volume to total stem volume could vary with stand age and site productivity class. Based on a comparison of the developed forest biomass yield tables with those reported previously, we concluded that the proposed model-based forest biomass yield table would be useful for estimating the quantity of unutilized wood biomass.     

Dynamics and management of Alaska boreal forest: An all-aged multi-species matrix growth model

Studies on the dynamics of Alaska boreal forest are sporadic and rare, and forest management in the region has been conducted in the absence of a useful growth model. This paper presents a matrix stand growth model to study the dynamics and management of Alaska's boreal forest, with harvests and artificial regeneration being accounted for. The model was calibrated with data from 446 constantly monitored permanent sample plots distributed across interior and south-central Alaska, and was tested to be accurate on an independent validation sample. The present model was applied on a most frequent commercial stand in interior Alaska to study a forest management regime that is being commonly used in the region. The simulation was for 300 years with a 40-year cutting cycle, and management outcomes under various permafrost levels and site elevations were investigated with sensitivity analysis. Despite the comparatively low financial returns, current management regime may generally benefit wildlife species by maintaining continuous forest cover and decent stand diversity, and properly managed forests had potential for timber production and wood-based energy. It was predicted by the model that both permafrost and site elevation had substantial impact on the management outcomes. Other variables being held constant at sample mean, net present value of harvests increased from $434 to $831 ha⁻¹ and the annual volume of harvest more than tripled from 1.68 to 5.75 m³ ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ as permafrost declined from obvious to unlikely. Managers were also advised to focus on stands on medium elevation (300 m), as stands on lower or higher elevations were expected to produce less harvested volume and net present value. For rural Alaska communities suffering from expensive heating costs, it was suggested that approximately 20 ha of properly managed forest could sustain a household's annual heating requirement, while continuous forest coverage and decent diversity could still be maintained.     

Using the LANDIS model to evaluate forest harvesting and planting strategies under possible warming climates in Northeastern China

The Small Khingan Mountains in northeastern China provide most of the timber and wood products in the country. Evaluating the long-term effects of harvesting and planting strategies is important especially as the climate changes. In this study, we evaluated the effects of the projected climate warming on potential changes in species’ coverage (percent cover), area harvested (percentage of the study area) and species harvested, using the LANDIS model. Our evaluation was based on the harvest and planting plans specified in Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP). Our simulated results show that the coverage of southern species such as Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and ribbed birch (Betula costata) increases, whereas the coverage of northern species like larch (Larix gmelinii), Kingan fir (Abies nephrolepis), spruces (Picea koraiensis and P. jezoensis) and Dahur birch (Betula davurica) decreases under the warming climate in the region. The species harvested primarily consist of the southern species, especially deciduous species under the warming climate. The warming climate leads to 11.2% increase in area harvested compared to that under the current climate, when planting is not simulated. When planting is simulated, tradeoffs between planting and area harvested are complex. The area harvested only increases in places where moderate planting is implemented, and decreases in places with both low (≤5% area planted) and high (≥30%) planting percentage. This is because when the planting percentage is low, the rate of increase of harvestable species due to planting is lower than the rate of decrease of warming-declining species. When the planting percentage is high, the rate of increase of planted species is higher than the rate of colonization of warming-adapted deciduous species, and the planted species delay the establishment of the warming-adaptable species that have short harvest rotations (due to lower harvestable ages). Our results suggest that the management strategy with planting area of 20% is the best among all the scenarios simulated. Under this warming climate, moderate planting area (e.g. 20%) increases the area harvested to about 43%, which is still less than that (58%) designated in the NFPP. These results have important implications for forest managers designing sustainable forest harvest and reforestation strategies for the landscape under the warming climate.     

Carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland under different cutting and climate scenarios

In this work the aim was to determine how carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland is dependent on the forest management and increased production potential due to climate change. This was analysed for the period 2003–2053 using forest inventory data and the forestry model MELA. Four combinations of two climate change and two management scenarios were studied: current (CU) and gradually warming (CC) climate and forest management strategies corresponding to different rates of utilisation of the cutting potential, namely maximum sustainable removal (Sust) or maximum net present value (NPV) of wood production (Max). In this analysis of Finland, the initial amount of carbon in the growing stock was 765 Mt (2,802 Tg CO₂). At the end of the simulation, the carbon in the growing stock of trees in Finland had increased to 894 Mt (3,275 Tg CO₂) under CUSust, 906 Mt (3,321 Tg CO₂) under CUMax, 1,060 Mt (3,885 Tg CO₂) under CCSust and 1,026 Mt (3,758 Tg CO₂) under CCMax. The results show that future development of carbon in the growing stock is not only dependent on climate change scenarios but also on forest management. For example, maximising the NPV of wood production without sustainability constraints results, over the short term, in a large amount of wood obtained in regeneration cuttings and a consequent decrease in the amount of carbon in growing stock. Over the longer term, this decrease in the carbon of growing stock in regenerated forests is compensated by the subsequent increase in fast-growing young forests. By comparison, no drastic short-term decrease in carbon stock was found in the Sust scenarios; only minor decreases were observed.     

江苏省森林资源变化浅析

在论述了江苏省森林资源现状的基础上，对全省森林资源连续清查，１９９０年和１９９５年两次复查的结果进行了比较分析，从中探求变化规律及目前森林资源存在的问题，并提出了解决的对策和措施。     

Modelling diameter class distribution with a second-order matrix model

Matrix models of forest dynamics rely on four hypotheses: independence hypothesis, Markov’s hypothesis, Usher’s hypothesis, and temporal homogeneity hypothesis. We investigate the consequences of relaxing Markov’s hypothesis, allowing the state of the tree at time t to depend on its states at time t−1 and t−2. The methodology for building and testing the relevance of second-order matrix model is thus proposed. The derivation of second-order transition probabilities turns to be sensitive to the width of the diameter classes. A strategy for choosing diameter classes is proposed. A second-order matrix model is then built for a tropical rain-forest in French Guiana. A different behaviour is detected between small (dbh ≤30 cm) and large trees, the smaller trees being more sensitive to their past history: small trees that have well grown have a tendency to grow well again, and small trees that have not grown tend to have a higher probability to die. The widths of the diameter classes that are selected are much less than the widths usually retained, that favour first-order selection.     

Integrating climate change into forest management in South-Central British Columbia: An assessment of landscape vulnerability and development of a climate-smart framework

The achievement of sustainable forest management requires the incorporation of risk and uncertainty into long-term planning. Climatic change will have significant impacts on natural disturbances, species and ecosystems, particularly on landscapes influenced by forest management. Understanding where vulnerabilities lie is important in managing the risks associated directly or indirectly with climatic change. The vulnerability of landscapes to natural disturbances, the resilience of ecosystems and distribution of species are all important components that need to be considered when undertaking forest planning, but climatic change is rarely factored into such planning. In this study, the vulnerability of fire potential, fire regimes, ecosystems and species to climatic change was modelled for a 145,000 ha landscape in the south-central interior of British Columbia, Canada. The results from these analyses were used to guide forest zoning, using the triad zoning framework, and for the development of a “climate-smart” management framework. The use of climate-smart management is advocated as a decision-making framework for managing forested landscapes based on an understanding of landscape vulnerability to future climatic change. From this understanding, the maintenance of ecosystem health and vitality could be achieved.     

The effects of topography on forest soil characteristics in the Oregon Cascade Mountains (USA): Implications for the effects of climate change on soil properties

Forest soil measurements were made at over 180 sites distributed throughout the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) in the Oregon Cascade Mountains. The influences of both elevation and aspect on soil variables were measured in the early (1998) and late summer (1994). Increased elevation significantly increased soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, soil organic matter, labile C and mineralizable N, microbial activities, extractable ammonium, and denitrification potentials. In contrast, bulk density, pH and soil temperature (1998 only) were significantly lower at the higher elevations. Relative to labile C, mineralizable N was preferentially sequestered at higher elevations. Aspect significantly affected annual mean temperature and precipitation, soil moisture and temperature, soil organic matter, mineralizable N, extractable ammonium, denitrification, and microbial activities. There were no significant higher statistical interactions between elevation and aspect on climatic or soil factors. Soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation at higher elevations is likely driven by a reduction in decomposition rates rather that an increase in primary productivity, however, SOM accumulation on north facing slopes is probably due to both a decrease in decomposition and an increase in primary production. Models of climate change effects on temperate forest soils based on elevational studies may not apply to aspect gradients since plant productivity may not respond to temperature–moisture gradients in the same way across all topographical features.     

Influence of climate change,fire and harvest on the carbon dynamics of black spruce in Central Canada

The results of EFIMOD simulations for black spruce (Picea mariana [Miller]) forests in Central Canada show that climate warming, fire, harvesting and insects significantly influence net primary productivity (NPP), soil respiration (Rs), net ecosystem production (NEP) and pools of tree biomass and soil organic matter (SOM). The effects of six climate change scenarios demonstrated similar increasing trends of NPP and stand productivity. The disturbances led to a strong decrease in NPP, stand productivity, soil organic matter (SOM) and nitrogen (N) pools with an increase in CO₂ emission to the atmosphere. However the accumulated NEP for 150 years under harvest and fire fluctuated around zero. It becames negative only at a more frequent disturbance regime with four forest fires during the period of simulation. The results from this study show that changes in climate and disturbance regimes might substantially change the NPP as well as the C and N balance, resulting in major changes in the C pools of the vegetation and soil under black spruce forests.     

Forest management for mitigation and adaptation to climate change: Insights from long-term silviculture experiments

Developing management strategies for addressing global climate change has become an increasingly important issue influencing forest management around the globe. Currently, management approaches are being proposed that intend to (1) mitigate climate change by enhancing forest carbon stores and (2) foster adaptation by maintaining compositionally and structurally complex forests. However, little is known about the compatibility of these two objectives or the long-term efficacy of a given management regime at simultaneously achieving adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, we examined stand-level carbon and complexity responses using five long-term (>50 yrs) silviculture experiments within the upper Great Lakes region, USA. In particular, live tree carbon stores and sequestration rates, and compositional and structural complexity were analyzed from three thinning experiments in Pinus resinosa and two selection method experiments in northern hardwood systems to elucidate the long-term effects of management on these ecosystem attributes and the general compatibility of mitigation and adaptation objectives.As expected, we observed a general increase in large tree densities with stand age and positive relationships between stand stocking level and live tree carbon stores. More importantly, our results clearly identify tradeoffs between the achievement of mitigation and adaptation objectives across each study. For example, maintaining higher stocking levels (i.e., enhanced mitigation by increasing carbon stores) resulted in decreases in stand-level structural and compositional complexity (i.e., reduced adaptation potential). In addition, rates of live tree carbon increment were also the lowest within the highest stocking levels; despite the benefits of these stand conditions to maximizing carbon stores. Collectively, these findings underscore the importance of avoiding rigid adherence to a single objective, such as maximum on-site carbon stores, without recognizing potential consequences to other ecosystem components crucial to ensuring long-term ecosystem functioning within the context of environmental change. One potential stand-level strategy for balancing these goals may be to employ multi-aged management systems, such as irregular shelterwood and selection systems, that maintain a large proportion of carbon stores in retained mature trees while using thinning to create spatial heterogeneity that promotes higher sequestration rates in smaller, younger trees and simultaneously enhances structural and compositional complexity.     

Spatiotemporally interactive growth dynamics in selected South African forests: Edaphoclimatic environment, crowding and climate effects

Stand-level tree diameter growth patterns were explored for evergreen moist forests in the southern Cape, South Africa. Results of standard multiple regression analyses, involving 934 permanent sample plots with data spanning a 10-year interval, revealed that stand-level increment of canopy species in the canopy layer (>30 cm dbh) was significantly determined by inherent species-specific growth capacities (species composition of the stand), water availability, forest matrix crowding and tree condition impairment (age-related manifestations of reduced vitality indicated by signs of crown die-back, damage and stem rot). In contrast, stand-level increment of trees of canopy species in the subcanopy layer (10-20 cm dbh) was prominently shaped by light availability, as mainly determined by the degree of canopy-level disturbance (mortality rate of trees >30 cm dbh), crowding (canopy-level overhead and forest matrix crowding) and proximity to conspecific adults (within 6-8 m). In addition to species-inherent and resource factors, considerable variation in stand-level growth resulted from site-climate interactions. For 507 of the permanent sample plots, increment data was available for two consecutive 10-year intervals; permitting the analysis of spatiotemporal interactions of growth patterns (repeated measures ANOVA). In the Knysna forests higher canopy-level increment rates were associated with the moister southerly facing slope sites in comparison with the drier northerly facing and ridge sites during the first increment period. During the second increment period, increment rates on the drier, but better illuminated sites had increased disproportionately. In contrast, in the Tsitsikamma forests, higher increment rates during the second increment period were encountered on moister flat bottomland sites (with extended periods of subsoil wetness) than on the comparatively drier southerly facing slope sites (increment period × site-based water availability × forests interaction). In both forests relatively higher growth performance of subcanopy-level trees during the second increment period was associated with stands experiencing conditions of enhanced light availability. Atmospheric temperatures were higher during the second increment period (mean periodic T_max: + 0.64 °C). The detected spatiotemporal interactions were interpreted as site × climate interactions where site-related conditions of favourable light or water availability resulted in enhanced temperature-linked growth responses during the second increment period. A metabolic performance trade-off model provided a framework for the interpretation of these complex site-climate interactions by placing the patterns of forest growth into an ecophysiological explanatory context.     

Using a spatiotemporal climate model to assess population-level Douglas-fir growth sensitivity to climate change across large climatic gradients in British Columbia, Canada

Effective adaptation of forest management practices to climate change will require a good understanding of the ecological and climatic factors influencing tree sensitivities and responses to climate. Using tree-ring data collected from 33 stands of mature interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) spanning a wide climatic range in British Columbia (BC), Canada, we present an approach combining high-resolution spatiotemporal climate data with traditional dendroecological analyses to quantify relationships between population climate-growth sensitivity and provenance (i.e., seed-source origin) climate. Key results showed that Douglas-fir climate-growth sensitivities were strongly linked to provenance climate and varied in coherent patterns across climatic gradients. Climate-growth sensitivities and responses were sometimes opposite between provenances from disparate climates. Perhaps most importantly, our results showed that Douglas-fir productivity across most of its range was sensitive to moisture limitations, and this sensitivity increased strongly with decreasing provenance mean annual precipitation and increasing heat-moisture index. Using geographic information systems, we visualize the link between provenance mean annual precipitation and climatic sensitivity of Douglas-fir across BC to identify “high risk” populations. By understanding the link between biological responses and climate, forest managers may be able to spatially identify sensitive populations using spatiotemporal climate data.     

Growth responses of West-Mediterranean Pinus nigra to climate change are modulated by competition and productivity: Past trends and future perspectives

Positive and negative effects of climate change on forest growth have been observed in different parts of the world. However, much is still unknown about how forest structure and productivity might affect climate-growth relationships in the future. We examined the effects of climate, site quality, and competition on tree basal area growth of black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) between 1964 and 2005 in 21 sites in the Iberian Peninsula. We used a new approach to simultaneously account for climate-growth relationships, inter-annual growth variability, and stand structural changes, by fitting a linear mixed effects model (LMEM) for basal area increments (BAI) using climate data, tree-ring chronologies, and repeated forest inventory data. This approach showed the potential to improve our understanding of climate effects on tree growth and to include climate in empirical forest growth models. We used the LMEM to make projections of BAI growth under two CO₂ emission scenarios and two global circulation models (GCM). The main climate drivers for growth were precipitation from previous autumn to summer and winter temperature with a positive effect, and temperature in spring-summer which had a negative effect. Tree response to climate was modulated by stand conditions, tree competition, and productivity. The more productive stands showed greater ability to either maintain or increase growth at warmer spring-summer temperatures under different levels of autumn-summer precipitation. Growth projections showed important regional differences. In general, growth under future climate is predicted to decrease although moderate growth increases might be expected in the northern region for highly and moderately productive stands.     

Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history-factors

Species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate trees’ potential responses to climate change are essential for developing appropriate forest management strategies. However, there is a great need to better understand these models’ limitations and evaluate their uncertainties. We have previously developed statistical models of suitable habitat, based on both species’ range and abundance, to better understand potential changes of 134 tree species habitats in the eastern United States (http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas). Our focus here is to build on these results via a more robust assessment framework called modification factors (ModFacs) that is made up of five components. ModFac 1 addresses nine biological characteristics (e.g., shade tolerance and seedling establishment) that quantify the influence of species life-history traits. ModFac 2 considers 12 disturbance characteristics (e.g., insect pests, drought, and fire topkill) which address the capacity of a species to tolerate and respond to climate-induced changes in habitat. ModFac 3-5 distill the tree SDM results and facilitate communication of model uncertainty; we quantified the variability in projected change for General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios (ModFac 3), the extent to which each species’ habitat intersects novel climate conditions (ModFac4), and accounted for long-distance extrapolations beyond a species’ current range (ModFac5). The life-history components of ModFacs 1 and 2 demonstrate the marked variability among species in terms of biological and disturbance characteristics, suggesting diverse abilities to adapt to climate change. ModFacs 3-5 show that the information from the SDMs can be enhanced by quantifying the variability associated with specific GCM/emission scenarios, the emergence of novel climates for particular tree species, and the distances of species habitat shifts with climate change. The ModFacs framework has high interpretive value when considered in conjunction with the outputs of species habitat models for this century. Importantly, the intention of this assessment was not to create a static scoring system, but to broadly assess species characteristics that likely will play an important role in adaptation to climate change. We believe these scores based on biological, disturbance, and model synthesis factors provide an important expansion of interpretive and practical value to habitat model projections.