Modelling the effects of climate change and timber harvest on the forests of central Nova Scotia, Canada

Context

Understanding the range of possible climate change impacts on forests and the interactions between them is vital to sustainable forest management.

Aims

We examine whether the combined influence of climate change and timber harvest will affect tree species distribution and productivity beyond predictions based on climate alone.

Methods

We used the landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II to simulate two climate and two harvest scenarios in 14,000 ha of managed watersheds.

Results

The elevated temperature led to a decline in the abundance of boreal species and a substantial increase in some temperate and pioneer species. Importantly, the interaction of climate change and timber harvest yielded changes in the distribution of some species that would not be expected based on climate alone. Conversely, some late-successional species exhibited resistance to climate-driven changes in their distribution. Climate change caused an increase in forest productivity when harvest was simulated, but a decrease in no-harvest scenarios. A time lag in forest response was likely responsible for this decrease in the absence of widespread mortality.

Conclusions

The finding that disturbance may drive the range expansion of early-successional broadleaved species and cause a decline of red spruce has implications for forest community associations, as well as for forest management where conifers are favoured for pulp production.     

Response of terrestrial small mammals to varying amounts and patterns of green-tree retention in Pacific Northwest forests

To sustain native species in managed forests, landowners need silvicultural strategies that retain habitat elements often eliminated during traditional harvests such as clearcut logging. One alternative is green-tree or variable retention. We investigated the response of terrestrial small mammals to experimental harvests that retained large live trees in varying amounts (approximately 100, 75, 40, and 15% of original basal area) and patterns (aggregated versus dispersed) in mature coniferous forests of western Oregon and Washington. Treatments were applied in 36, 13-ha experimental units. We used pitfall traps to sample small mammals for 4 weeks each autumn during 2 years before and 2 years after treatments. We captured 21,351 individuals of 32 species. We analyzed effects of treatments on relative abundance of 12 species. As level of retention declined, we expected species associated with closed-canopy forests to decrease (Sorex trowbridgii, Neurotrichus gibbsii, Peromyscus keeni, Myodes [Clethrionomys] californicus, and M. gapperi); species associated with early successional habitats to increase (S. vagrans, P. maniculatus, Microtus longicaudus, and Microtus oregoni); and habitat generalists to show little response (S. monticolus, S. pacificus, and S. sonomae). As expected, M. californicus declined after harvest, and P. maniculatus and M. longicaudus increased. Sorex sonomae showed an unpredicted decrease. Other species did not show consistent changes. Responses of S. monticolus, S. sonomae, and M. gapperi varied among study areas. For M. gapperi, this variation was not explained by differences in habitat structure among areas. For all species, capture rates were similar in dispersed- and aggregated-retention units. Similarity in species composition between harvested sites and controls decreased with decreasing retention. Future sampling of these treatments is needed to assess long-term responses. Based on our initial results, green-tree retention strategies need to be sensitive to regional variation in environmental characteristics and small mammal community composition.     

Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests

We simulated how possible changes in wind and ground-frost climate and state of the forest due to changes in the future climate may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within one northern and one southern study area in Sweden, respectively. The topography of the study areas was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in the site productivity equal to a relative change in NPP, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of the site index in response to climate change using the model The Forest Time Machine. Global climate change scenarios based on two emission scenarios and one general circulation model were downscaled to the regional level. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the sensitivity of the forest to wind and the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands for the periods 2011–2041 and 2071–2100 and for a control period 1961–1990. This was done while taking into account effects on stability of the forest from expected changes in the occurrence of ground frost. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated for both study areas when adhering to recommended management rules of today. Adding also a changed wind climate further increased the probability of wind damage. Calculated probabilities of wind damage were generally higher in the southern study area than in the northern one and were explained by differences in wind climate and the state of the forests, for example with respect to tree species composition. The indicated increase in sensitivity of the forest to wind under the current management regime, and possibly increasing windiness, motivate further analysis of the effects of different management options on the probability of wind damage and what modifications of Swedish forest management are possibly warranted.     

STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRE IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE

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A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.     

Simulating responses of Northeastern China forests to potential climate change

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Climate and recent fire history affect fuel loads in Eucalyptus forests: Implications for fire management in a changing climate

Predicted changes to global climates are expected to affect natural fire regimes. Many studies suggest that the impact of these effects could be minimised by reducing fuel loads through prescribed burning. Fuel loads are dynamic and are affected by a range of factors including fire and climate. In this study, we use a 22-year dataset to examine the relative influence of climate and fire history on rates of litterfall and decomposition, and hence fuel loads, in a coastal Eucalypt forest in south-eastern Australia. Litterfall and decomposition were both affected by temperature, recent rainfall and fire history variables. Over the study period prescribed burning immediately reduced fuel loads, with fuel loads reaching pre-burn levels within 3 years of a fire. Modelling fuel loads under predicted climate change scenarios for 2070 suggests that while fuel loads are reduced, the levels are not significantly lower than those recorded in the study. Based on these predictions it is unlikely that the role or value of prescribed burning in these forests will change under the scenarios tested in this study.     

Dynamic response to climate change in the radial growth of Picea schrenkiana in western Tien Shan,ChinaOA

Forests are important ecosystems for economic and social development. However, the response of tree radial growth to climate has produced ‘divergent problems’ at high latitudes under global warming. In this study, the response stability and trend of Picea schrenkiana radial growth to variability in climate factors were analyzed in the mid-latitudes of the western Tien Shan Mountains. Radial growth of P.schrenkiana was mainly limited by minimum and mean temperatures. The divergent responses of ra...     

Uncertainty of 21st century growing stocks and GHG balance of forests in British Columbia, Canada resulting from potential climate change impacts on ecosystem processes

Over the coming decades, climate change will increasingly affect forest ecosystem processes, but the future magnitude and direction of these responses is uncertain. We designed 12 scenarios combining possible changes in tree growth rates, decay rates, and area burned by wildfire with forecasts of future harvest to quantify the uncertainty of future (2010-2080), timber growing stock, ecosystem C stock, and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance for 67 million ha of forest in British Columbia, Canada. Each scenario was simulated 100 times with the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). Depending on the scenario, timber growing stock over the entire land-base may increase by 14% or decrease by 9% by 2080 (a range of 2.8 billion m³), relative to 2010. However, timber growing stock available for harvest was forecast to decline in all scenarios by 26-62% relative to 2010 (a range of 1.2 billion m³). Forests were an annual GHG source in 2010 due to an ongoing insect outbreak. If half of the C in harvested wood was assumed to be immediately emitted, then 0-95% of simulations returned to annual net sinks by 2040, depending on scenario, and the cumulative (2010-2080) GHG balance ranged from a sink of −4.5 Pg CO₂e (−67 Mg CO₂e ha⁻¹) for the most optimistic scenario, to a source of 4.5 Pg CO₂e (67 Mg CO₂e ha⁻¹) for the most pessimistic. The difference in total ecosystem carbon stocks between the most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios in 2080 was 2.4 Pg C (36 Mg C ha⁻¹), an average difference of 126 Tg CO₂e yr⁻¹ (2 Mg CO₂e yr⁻¹ ha⁻¹) over the 70-year simulation period, approximately double the total reported anthropogenic GHG emissions in British Columbia in 2008. Forests risk having reduced growing stock and being GHG sources under many foreseeable scenarios, thus providing further feedback to climate change. These results indicate the need for continued monitoring of forest responses to climatic and global change, the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies by forest managers, and global efforts to minimize climate change impacts on forests.     

Bat response to shelterwood harvests and forest structure in oak-hickory forests

Forest management practices, such as shelterwood harvesting, can greatly impact bat habitat relationships. Such practices can alter the amount of structural volume within a forest, which can influence bat foraging patterns. We determined the effects of shelterwood harvests of different retention levels (50% and 70% of full stocking) on bat activity patterns in oak-hickory forests located in southern Ohio. We used the Anabat system to monitor activity during May-September 2006. Our objectives were to quantify the effects of harvesting on structural volume and use the results to explain variations in bat activity. Because harvesting alters vertical structure as well as the total amount of volume within a forest, we also determined the height within the vertical profile where changes in structural volume begin to influence overall and species-specific activity. Overall bat activity did not differ significantly between shelterwood harvest levels, but was significantly different between harvested and control sites, with more passes detected within the harvested sites. Lasiurus borealis (red bat), Eptesicus fuscus (big brown bat), and Lasionycteris noctivagans (silver-haired bat) activity was significantly greater in harvested versus control sites, but did not differ between shelterwood harvest levels. Myotis spp. (Myotis lucifugus (little brown bat) and Myotis septentrionalis (northern Myotis)) and Perimyotis subflavus (tri-colored bat) activity did not vary between shelterwood harvest levels or between harvested and control sites. The greatest reductions in structural volume occurred in the understory to mid-canopy of the shelterwood harvests. Overall activity was most influenced by the amount of volume within 3-6 m above the forest floor, and declined as volume within that height strata increased. Mean bat passes declined by 50% when volume within 3-6 m exceeded 17 m³/ha. Estimated use by L. borealis decreased by 50% at volumes exceeding 1750 m³/ha in the understory to mid-canopy (0-12 m), while E. fuscus and L. noctivagans estimated use was the highest when volumes within 3-6 m were less than 63 m³/ha. Our results suggest that forest management practices that reduce the amount of structural volume in the understory to mid-canopy provide suitable habitat for foraging bats. Quantifying the amount of structural volume at various heights within the vertical profile of the forest can lend valuable insights into overall and species-specific bat activity patterns.     

Risks to forest carbon offset projects in a changing climate

When included as part of a larger greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction program, forest offsets may provide low-cost opportunities for GHG mitigation. One barrier to including forest offsets in climate policy is the risk of reversal, the intentional or unintentional release of carbon back to the atmosphere due to storms, fire, pests, land use decisions, and many other factors. To address this shortcoming, a variety of different strategies have emerged to minimize either the risk or the financial and environmental implications of reversal. These strategies range from management decisions made at the individual stand level to buffers and set-asides that function across entire trading programs. For such strategies to work, the actual risk and magnitude of potential reversals need to be clearly understood. In this paper we examine three factors that are likely to influence reversal risk: natural disturbances (such as storms, fire, and insect outbreaks), climate change, and landowner behavior. Although increases in atmospheric CO₂ and to a lesser extent warming will likely bring benefits to some forest ecosystems, temperature stress may result in others. Furthermore, optimism based on experimental results of physiology and growth must be tempered with knowledge that future large-scale disturbances and extreme weather events are also likely to increase. At the individual project level, management strategies such as manipulation of forest structure, age, and composition can be used to influence carbon sequestration and reversal risk. Because some management strategies have the potential to maximize risk or carbon objectives at the expense of the other, policymakers should ensure that forest offset policies and programs do not provide the singular incentive to maximize carbon storage. Given the scale and magnitude of potential disturbance events in the future, however, management decisions at the individual project level may be insufficient to adequately address reversal risk; other, non-silvicultural strategies and policy mechanisms may be necessary. We conclude with a brief review of policy mechanisms that have been developed or proposed to help manage or mitigate reversal risk at both individual project and policy-wide scales.     

Forest management for mitigation and adaptation to climate change: Insights from long-term silviculture experiments

Developing management strategies for addressing global climate change has become an increasingly important issue influencing forest management around the globe. Currently, management approaches are being proposed that intend to (1) mitigate climate change by enhancing forest carbon stores and (2) foster adaptation by maintaining compositionally and structurally complex forests. However, little is known about the compatibility of these two objectives or the long-term efficacy of a given management regime at simultaneously achieving adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, we examined stand-level carbon and complexity responses using five long-term (>50 yrs) silviculture experiments within the upper Great Lakes region, USA. In particular, live tree carbon stores and sequestration rates, and compositional and structural complexity were analyzed from three thinning experiments in Pinus resinosa and two selection method experiments in northern hardwood systems to elucidate the long-term effects of management on these ecosystem attributes and the general compatibility of mitigation and adaptation objectives.As expected, we observed a general increase in large tree densities with stand age and positive relationships between stand stocking level and live tree carbon stores. More importantly, our results clearly identify tradeoffs between the achievement of mitigation and adaptation objectives across each study. For example, maintaining higher stocking levels (i.e., enhanced mitigation by increasing carbon stores) resulted in decreases in stand-level structural and compositional complexity (i.e., reduced adaptation potential). In addition, rates of live tree carbon increment were also the lowest within the highest stocking levels; despite the benefits of these stand conditions to maximizing carbon stores. Collectively, these findings underscore the importance of avoiding rigid adherence to a single objective, such as maximum on-site carbon stores, without recognizing potential consequences to other ecosystem components crucial to ensuring long-term ecosystem functioning within the context of environmental change. One potential stand-level strategy for balancing these goals may be to employ multi-aged management systems, such as irregular shelterwood and selection systems, that maintain a large proportion of carbon stores in retained mature trees while using thinning to create spatial heterogeneity that promotes higher sequestration rates in smaller, younger trees and simultaneously enhances structural and compositional complexity.     

Using a spatiotemporal climate model to assess population-level Douglas-fir growth sensitivity to climate change across large climatic gradients in British Columbia, Canada

Effective adaptation of forest management practices to climate change will require a good understanding of the ecological and climatic factors influencing tree sensitivities and responses to climate. Using tree-ring data collected from 33 stands of mature interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) spanning a wide climatic range in British Columbia (BC), Canada, we present an approach combining high-resolution spatiotemporal climate data with traditional dendroecological analyses to quantify relationships between population climate-growth sensitivity and provenance (i.e., seed-source origin) climate. Key results showed that Douglas-fir climate-growth sensitivities were strongly linked to provenance climate and varied in coherent patterns across climatic gradients. Climate-growth sensitivities and responses were sometimes opposite between provenances from disparate climates. Perhaps most importantly, our results showed that Douglas-fir productivity across most of its range was sensitive to moisture limitations, and this sensitivity increased strongly with decreasing provenance mean annual precipitation and increasing heat-moisture index. Using geographic information systems, we visualize the link between provenance mean annual precipitation and climatic sensitivity of Douglas-fir across BC to identify “high risk” populations. By understanding the link between biological responses and climate, forest managers may be able to spatially identify sensitive populations using spatiotemporal climate data.     

Forest vegetation responses to climate and environmental change: A case study from Changbai Mountain, NE China

The distribution of plant species has always been altered by changing climatic conditions. Nonetheless, the potential for species’ range shift responses has recently become severely limited, as exceptionally fast temperature changes coincide with a high degree of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. This study provides rare insights into the effects current temperature increases have on pristine temperate forest ecosystems, using the forests of Changbai Mountain, NE China, as a case study. On the northern slopes of the mountain at elevations between 750 and 2100 m, the composition of trees, shrubs and herbaceous species was recorded on 60 plots in 1963 and 2006/07. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) were used to establish the response of plant diversity and plant distribution patterns to environmental conditions. Climatic factors proved important in explaining the spatio-temporal trends within the vegetation. The composition of dominant trees remained mostly unchanged over the last 43 years, reflecting a very slow response of the forest canopy to environmental change. The composition of young trees, shrubs and herb species showed varied changes in the different forest types. A homogeneous species composition in the cohort of regenerating trees indicates an increased future uniformity in the mixed broadleaved and coniferous forest. The understory vegetation of high elevation birch forests was invaded by floristic elements of the lower-elevation coniferous forests. Both these trends pose potential threats to forests plant diversity. Future research investigating climate change responses in forest canopy composition needs to be based on even longer timescales, while investigations in the near future need to pay particular attention to the changes in the distribution of rare and threatened herbaceous species.     

Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups

In this study, the overall utility of forest management alternatives at the forest management unit level is evaluated with regard to multi-purpose and multi-user settings by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is based on an additive utility model. The relative importance of partial objectives of forest management (carbon sequestration, ground water recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) is defined in cooperation with stakeholders. The forest growth model 4C (Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) is used to simulate the impact of six forest management strategies and climate on forest functions. Two climate change scenarios represent uncertainties with regard to future climatic conditions. The study is based on actual forest conditions in the Kleinsee management unit in east Germany, which is dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl.) stands. First, there is an analysis of the impact of climate and forest management on forest functions. Climate change increases carbon sequestration and income from timber production due to increased stand productivity. Secondly, the overall utility of the management strategies is compared under the priority settings of different stakeholder groups. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate due to high biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions.     

Influences of climate,fire, grazing,and logging on woody species composition along an elevation gradient in the eastern Cascades,Washington

Across western North America, current ecosystem structure has been determined by historical interactions between climate, fire, livestock grazing, and logging. Climate change could substantially alter species abundance and composition, but the relative weight of the legacy of historical factors and projected future conditions in informing management objectives remains unresolved. We integrated land use histories with broad scale climatic factors to better understand how inland Pacific Northwest ecosystems may develop under projected climates. We measured vegetation structure and age distributions in five vegetation types (shrub steppe to subalpine forest) along an elevation gradient in the eastern Cascades of Washington. We quantitatively assessed compositional changes, and qualitatively summarized the environmental history (climate, fire and fire suppression, grazing, and logging) of each site. Little change was evident in woody species composition at the shrub steppe site. At the shrub steppe/forest ecotone, densities of drought-tolerant Artemisia tripartita and Pinus ponderosa increased. In the dry conifer, montane, and subalpine forest sites, increases in Pseudotsuga menziesii, Abies grandis, and Abies lasiocarpa, respectively, and decreases in Pinus ponderosa, Larix occidentalis, and Pinus contorta, respectively, have shifted species composition from fire and drought-tolerant species to shade-tolerant species. Fire suppression, grazing, and logging explain changes in species composition more clearly than climate variation does, although the relative influence of these factors varies with elevation. Furthermore, some of the observed changes in composition are opposite what we expect would be most suited to projected future climates. Natural resource managers need to recognize that the current state of an ecosystem reflects historical land uses, and that contemporary management actions can have long-term effects on ecosystem structure. Understanding the processes that generated an ecosystem's current structure will lead to more informed management decisions to effectively respond to projected climate changes.     

Influence of climate change,fire and harvest on the carbon dynamics of black spruce in Central Canada

The results of EFIMOD simulations for black spruce (Picea mariana [Miller]) forests in Central Canada show that climate warming, fire, harvesting and insects significantly influence net primary productivity (NPP), soil respiration (Rs), net ecosystem production (NEP) and pools of tree biomass and soil organic matter (SOM). The effects of six climate change scenarios demonstrated similar increasing trends of NPP and stand productivity. The disturbances led to a strong decrease in NPP, stand productivity, soil organic matter (SOM) and nitrogen (N) pools with an increase in CO₂ emission to the atmosphere. However the accumulated NEP for 150 years under harvest and fire fluctuated around zero. It becames negative only at a more frequent disturbance regime with four forest fires during the period of simulation. The results from this study show that changes in climate and disturbance regimes might substantially change the NPP as well as the C and N balance, resulting in major changes in the C pools of the vegetation and soil under black spruce forests.     

Relationships between the structural complexity and lichen community in coniferous forests of southwestern Nova Scotia

The relationships between the structural complexity of coniferous forests and the epiphytic lichen communities that inhabit them were examined in 51 conifer-dominated stands in southwestern Nova Scotia. One hundred and fifteen lichen species were studied in stands in the age range of 50–300 years. Environmental variables shaping the structural complexity of each forest stand were measured and their relationship with lichen species were assessed using a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). The CCA revealed that the considerable variation in lichen community composition can be explained by several environmental variables associated with forest structure. The stand orientation on the first axis of the CCA found the most important variables for lichen richness to be stand age, tree stem density and snag stem density. The stand orientation on the second axis is strongly correlated with deciduous stem density and abundance including specific deciduous tree species such as Acer rubrum abundance. The analysis indicates that the greater the structural complexity in the forest, and thus the more microhabitats available, the greater the lichen species richness. These results should provide forest managers with a better understanding of the environmental variables that influence lichen diversity, and contribute to the development of more sustainable forest management strategies.     

Selecting tree species for testing climate change migration hypotheses using forest inventory data

The lack of objective tree species lists hinders the assessment of climate change effects on tree species distributions. The goal of this study was to develop and evaluate criteria for selecting tree species used in large-scale tree migration monitoring efforts. The results of this study indicate that tree migration conclusions are highly dependant on the species selected for examination. It was found that tree species’ median latitudes or forecasted future areas provided objective criteria for development of species lists for migration hypothesis testing with the latter being insensitive to simulation error. Furthermore, only 10–15 of the top species, in terms of high median latitudes or loss in forecasted future area, are needed to maximize the sensitivity of a migration index. The use of such criteria in this study indicated a northward shift of sensitive tree populations of 27 km. It is suggested that examining species only the most likely to migrate serves as an objective starting point for migration detection. In contrast, the inclusion of all tree species commonly observed in large-scale forest inventories can obfuscate migration detection with tree species that have little ecological reason to immediately migrate in a changing climate.     

Potential impacts of a climate change on forest ecosystems

Review of literature indicates that many uncertainties and assumptions exist in predicting the impacts of a climate change on forest ecosystems. However, current knowledge is sufficient to encourage any measures that are combating climate change, that is to reduce first and foremost the release of harmful substances to the atmosphere, lithosphere and biosphere.