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1.
We reviewed Bayesian approaches for animal-level and herd-level prevalence estimation based on cross-sectional sampling designs and demonstrated fitting of these models using the WinBUGS software. We considered estimation of infection prevalence based on use of a single diagnostic test applied to a single herd with binomial and hypergeometric sampling. We then considered multiple herds under binomial sampling with the primary goal of estimating the prevalence distribution and the proportion of infected herds. A new model is presented that can be used to estimate the herd-level prevalence in a region, including the posterior probability that all herds are non-infected. Using this model, inferences for the distribution of prevalences, mean prevalence in the region, and predicted prevalence of herds in the region (including the predicted probability of zero prevalence) are also available. In the models presented, both animal- and herd-level prevalences are modeled as mixture distributions to allow for zero infection prevalences. (If mixture models for the prevalences were not used, prevalence estimates might be artificially inflated, especially in herds and regions with low or zero prevalence.) Finally, we considered estimation of animal-level prevalence based on pooled samples.  相似文献   

2.
This meta-analysis estimates a single-group summary (effect size) for seroprevalence of Brucella spp. exposure in dairy cattle of Ethiopia. It also attempts to identify study-level variables that could explain the variation in apparent seroprevalence. The literature search was restricted to studies published in English language from January 2000 to December 2013. A template was designed to retrieve the most biologically plausible and consistent variables from the articles. A total of 29 published papers containing 40 animal-level studies were used in the analyses. The single-group summary of Brucella seroprevalence in cattle was estimated to reach 3.3 % with 95 % confidence interval (CI) (2.6–4.2 %). Of all the variables considered, region was the only specific factor identified to explain about 20 % of between-study variation. Accordingly, the region-based meta-analysis forest plot revealed the highest prevalence in central Ethiopia followed by southern part. The lowest prevalence estimate was observed in the western part of the country. The visual inspection of the funnel plot demonstrated the presence of possible publication bias which might dictate shortage of studies with higher prevalences or variance inflation due to infectiousness of Brucella. In conclusion, the quantitative review showed the seroprevalence to be low but widely distributed. More importantly, the review underscores the need for isolation and characterization of the circulating Brucella spp. to capture the type of Brucella spp. involved and its distribution in cattle in Ethiopia.  相似文献   

3.
The prevalence of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli and Salmonella in Ontario broiler chickens was determined by culturing cloacal samples from 500 individual birds selected from 50 poultry farms. Resistance to antimicrobials was determined for each of the isolates. In addition, abattoir and farm-level management data were obtained to evaluate variables that may be considered risk factors for infection. The variables selected included: Percentage of birds condemned at slaughter, percentage of birds dead-on-arrival, bird weight, truck number, farm size, hatchery source, litter source and type, feed source, mortality levels, type of water drinker, water sanitization, down time, barn clean out and history of antibiotic treatment. None of the cloacal samples revealed the presence of verocytotoxin-producing E. coli, though 19/500 (3.8%) contained Salmonella organisms. Nine different Salmonella serotypes were isolated; the most common being S. hadar, S. heidelberg and S. mbandaka. Resistance to tetracycline and streptomycin was common among Salmonella (63%) and E. coli (25.2%) isolates. Resistance to two or more antimicrobials occurred in 420/500 (84%) of the E. coli isolates. No statistically significant associations between abattoir or farm-level management variables and the Salmonella-status of farms were demonstrated.  相似文献   

4.
A review of prevalences of paratuberculosis in farmed animals in Europe   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Prevalence estimates are used by decision makers such as policy makers and risk assessors to make choices related to certain diseases and infections. Paratuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), is a chronic infection particularly resulting in economic losses among farmed ruminants. Therefore, this infection is of concern for many farming industry decision makers. As a result, multiple studies have been carried out to determine the within-herd and between-herd prevalence of MAP infections. The objective of the present study was to conduct a review and, if possible, compare animal and herd level prevalences of MAP among farmed animals in Europe. European data on prevalences of MAP in all farmed animal species were included from a review of literature. Information on target population and study design, tests used and apparent prevalences were recorded, and subsequently true prevalences were calculated when possible. A critical review of the included studies indicated that although a wide range of studies have been conducted, likely and comparable true prevalence estimates could rarely be calculated. Based on a few studies where the prevalences appeared to be plausible, it was concluded that prevalences of MAP would have to be guesstimates based on available data. The true prevalence among cattle appeared to be approximately 20% and was at least 3-5% in several countries. Between-herd prevalence guesstimates appeared to be >50%. No countries had published sufficient information to claim freedom from MAP or just a near-zero prevalence of MAP infections. No within-flock prevalence estimates were available for goats and sheep. The between-flock prevalence guesstimates were >20%, based only on estimates from Switzerland and Spain. Major critical issues were identified in the majority of the studies, primarily due to lack of knowledge of the test accuracy of the diagnostic test used, or due to studies where the study population did not reflect the target population. Because most of the reported studies did not yield prevalence estimates which were comparable to other studies, there is a continuing need for well-designed studies of the prevalence of MAP infections.  相似文献   

5.
We review frequentist and Bayesian approaches for estimating animal-level disease prevalence using pooled samples obtained by simple random sampling. We determine the preferred approach for different prevalence scenarios and with varying knowledge about sensitivity and specificity values. When sensitivity and specificity are perfect or known, we can choose between the large-sample theory estimates and the one-to-one relationship exact estimates. When sensitivity and specificity are unknown, we must use large-sample theory estimates or Bayesian methodology (which gives exact estimates). However, when the large-sample theory produces a negative lower confidence limit, we must use one of the exact methods. We compare estimates from each approach using culture results from pools of 20 eggs from three flocks on a California ranch that were producing eggs that were contaminated with Salmonella enteritidis phage type 4.  相似文献   

6.
Specialised veal producers that purchase and raise calves from several dairy herds are potentially at high risk of delivering Salmonella-infected animals to slaughter. However, the true prevalence of Salmonella infected veal producing herds and the prevalence of infected calves delivered to slaughter from infected herds are unknown in Denmark. Due to uncertainties about test sensitivity and specificity, these prevalences are not straightforward to assess. The objective of this study was to estimate the within-herd- and between-herd prevalence of Salmonella in veal calves delivered for slaughter to abattoirs in Denmark. Furthermore, it was investigated to which extent the estimates differed between a setup using both serological tests and faecal culture, compared to just serological tests, and whether the applied sampling scheme in the national surveillance programme in Denmark was sufficient to establish high posterior estimates of freedom from infection in individual herds. We used Bayesian analysis to avoid bias as a result of fixed test validity estimates. Serological test results from 753 animals and faecal culture from 1233 animals from 68 randomly selected Danish veal producing herds that delivered more than 100 calves to slaughter per year were used to estimate the prevalences and estimates of freedom from Salmonella. Serological test results of 7726 animals from 185 herds were used to compare the difference in prevalence estimates between serology alone vs. faecal culture combined with serology. We estimated that 34-57% of specialised veal producing herds were infected with Salmonella. Within the infected herds, 21-49% of the animals were infected. Few herds obtained high posterior estimates for the probability of freedom from infection given the collected data, with only six of 68 herds obtaining posterior probability of being infected less than 10%. Furthermore, this study indicated that serology is sufficiently sensitive and specific to be used for estimating the prevalence of Salmonella-infected specialised veal producing herds.  相似文献   

7.
We used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate distributions for flock-level sensitivity of abattoir-based surveillance for ovine paratuberculosis as currently practised in New South Wales, Australia. Probability distributions were used as input variables for within-flock prevalence, years-infected and individual animal-level sensitivity and specificity of gross pathology as a screening test for the presence of paratuberculosis. Distributions used as inputs for the size of abattoir-slaughter groups were based on existing abattoir-surveillance data from NSW. Predicted flock-level sensitivity depended on within-flock prevalence and the number of animals examined and was sensitive to estimates of animal-level sensitivity and specificity. The median probability of detection of an infected flock based on the examination of one abattoir line was predicted not to exceed 0.95 unless the within-flock prevalence was ≥7%. If the within-flock prevalence was 2%, the probability distribution of flock-level sensitivity had a median of 0.73, with 80% of values lying between 0.55 and 0.84. Improvement in the flock-level sensitivity could be achieved by submitting more than three gross pathology-positive specimens per line, if available—but the degree of improvement depended on the number of sheep slaughtered (line size) and the within-flock prevalence. At 2% prevalence, a median flock-level sensitivity of 0.95 could be obtained in lines of >390 sheep if six gross pathology-positive specimens were submitted. We concluded that abattoir surveillance based on identification of gross pathology as a screening test is not a sensitive tool for detecting recently infected flocks or flocks which have a moderate or lower prevalence of infected animals. But—with relatively minor modifications of the protocol currently in use—it could become a key component of a surveillance programme which included additional testing strategies for small flocks.  相似文献   

8.
Time trends in animal-disease surveillance often are evaluated on the basis of crude estimates of apparent prevalence. In addition to possible changes in the true prevalence of the condition, changes in apparent prevalence over time might reflect changes in sensitivity and/or specificity of the diagnostic classification used. To illustrate this, comparative post-mortem meat inspection data from four Danish slaughter plants sampled in 1993-1994 and 1997-1998 were used to obtain latent-class model estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of traditional and extended post-mortem meat inspection of visceral and parietal chronic pleuritis (CP), respectively.True prevalence of CP was estimated for each study period and slaughter plant by latent-class models. Estimated sensitivities of traditional post-mortem meat (TPM) inspection ranged from 28.8 to 61.4% (1993-1994) and 39.2 to 87.3% (1997-1998). An increase in sensitivity with time was seen for all slaughter plants. Estimated sensitivities of extended post-mortem meat (EPM) inspection ranged from 85.7 to 94.8% (1993-1994) and 73.8 to 93.0% (1997-1998). All estimated specificities were >93.3%.The possible association of the estimated true prevalence of CP with time (1993-1994 versus 1997-1998) was investigated with a logistic-regression model with random effects. A slight, but non-significant decrease in the odds of CP from 1994 to 1998 was found (odds ratio=0.9).In this and similar situations, one should consider conducting ongoing double-classification of samples of units followed by statistical estimation of true prevalences, sensitivities and specificities, so that decisions can be based on such estimates rather than on crude apparent prevalences.  相似文献   

9.
The relative variability of the sero-prevalence of antibodies to infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) due to cow, farm, and agroecological area levels were investigated for three contrasting districts in Kenya: Samburu, an arid and pastoral area; Kiambu, a tropical highland area; and Kilifi, a typical tropical coastal area. Cattle were selected by two-stage cluster sampling and visited once between August 1991 and 1992. Data on animal, farm, and area factors were analyzed using Schall's algorithm and MLn (multi-level, n-level), two generalized mixed-model programs suitable for multi-level analysis. Most variation in IBR sero-prevalence was from farm-to-furm. This was reflected by the many farm-level fixed effects (farm size, disease control measures and type of breeding) significant in models both ignoring and accounting for single variance components (clustering) at farm, area, and district levels. Area-to-area and district-to-district variations were noted but the area and district variance components were one-third and one-fifth the size of the farm variance components for both methods. As farm-to-farm variation differed markedly by farm size and district, models in MLn were extended to allow for multiple farm-level variance components by these categories. For each, sero-prevalence of IBR increased with age and was significantly decreased on small-sized zero-grazing farms. These models, particularly the model with different farm variance components by districts, fit the data better and highlighted well that there was considerable farm-to-farm variation—differing by district—and that the available farm-level fixed effects did not predict IBR sero-prevalence well.  相似文献   

10.
The aim of this study was to provide baseline data on the population and herd Salmonella seroprevalence in sows and finishers. For the population estimates in 1996 and 1999 and the herd prevalences for sows and gilts, blood samples from swine vesicular disease (SVD) and pseudorabies monitoring programmes were used and tested in an indirect Salmonella enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The herd prevalence for finishers was determined using blood samples collected at two slaughterhouses.The population prevalence for finishers in 1996 and 1999 was 23.7 and 24.5%, respectively, and for sows 40.5 and 60.4%, respectively. The prevalence in free range (FR) finishers was significantly higher (44.6%) than in intensively housed finishers in 1999, identifying a hazard group for possible extra pork and pork product contamination. Of 406 finishing herds, 9% were completely seronegative for Salmonella (cut-off OD%>10). Of these 406 finishing herds, 69.7% had Salmonella-status I (low prevalence), 21.7% status II (moderate prevalence) and 8.6% status III (high prevalence) (cut-off OD%>40). In 46 multiplying sow herds, 20 breeding sow herds and 20 matching replacement gilt herds, the average herd prevalences were 54, 44.4 and 19.3%, respectively. Two gilt herds were completely seronegative. The prevalence in the gilt herds was never higher than in the matching breeding sow herds. Agreement on methodology and calibration of ELISA tests would make these results comparable between countries and is a prerequisite for a co-ordinated and integrated program to reduce Salmonella in pork in the European Union.  相似文献   

11.
The problems addressed are: (1) comparison of prevalences of Salmonella spp. in different herd types in the Danish pig population after implementation of the Danish Salmonella Control Program (DSCP), and (2) to make a reference to a study from 1993/1994 (pre-implementation) with a discussion of possible biases when diagnostic methods differ slightly. The objectives were to present the prevalences of Salmonella spp., Salmonella Typhimurium, and multiresistant S. Typhimurium DT104 in Danish pig herds in 1998. Further, to discuss how herd prevalences may be compared to a previous study.A bacteriological study in 1998 comprised: (a) a random sample of slaughter pig producing herds (N=1962); (b) a random sample of farrow-to-grower (sow) herds (N=305); and (c) all breeding and multiplying (genetic) herds (N=366). A previous bacteriological study on Salmonella presence in 1993/1994 served as a model for the present study. The results of the study were that multiresistant S. Typhimurium DT104 was detected in one herd producing slaughter pigs. The herd apparent prevalences (HAPs) of Salmonella spp. were 11.7, 16.7 and 11.4% in genetic, sow, and slaughter pig herds, respectively. The conclusion of the study was that prevalence of multiresistant S. Typhimurium DT104 was low in the examined slaughter pig herds. The herd true prevalence (HTP) of Salmonella spp. in pigs had declined from before the start of the DSCP in 1993/1994 to 4 years later (1998).  相似文献   

12.
We describe the spatial epidemiological features of the 6.8 million meat-juice serological tests that were conducted between 1995 and 2004 as part of the Danish swine Salmonella control programme. We investigated pig and farm density using edge-corrected kernel estimations. Pigs were aggregated at the county level to assess county-level risk, and then we investigated farm-level risk by giving farms a case or non-case label using a cut-off of 40% of pigs positive. Conditional probability surfaces, correcting for the underlying population at risk, were produced for each year of the study period using a novel kernel estimator with a spatially adaptive smoothing bandwidth. This approach improves on previous methods by allowing focussed estimation of risk in areas of high population density while maintaining stable estimates in regions where the data are sparse. Two spatial trends in the conditional probability of a farm being a case were evident: (1) over the whole country, with the highest risk in the west compared to the east; and (2) on the Jutland peninsula with the highest risk in the north and south. At the farm-level a consistent area of risk was the south-west of Jutland. Case farms tended to aggregate indicating spatial dependency in the data. We found no association between pig or farm density and Salmonella risk. We generated hypotheses for this spatial pattern of risk and we conclude that this spatial pattern should be considered in the development of surveillance strategies and as a basis for further, more detailed analyses of the data.  相似文献   

13.
A nation-wide survey was carried out in 370 randomly chosen French commercial broiler chicken flocks from October 2005 to September 2006 to determine Salmonella spp. prevalence and to identify risk factors for contamination, at the end of the rearing period. The Salmonella status of the flocks was assessed from five faecal samples (litter swabs) analysed by classical bacteriological methods. A flock with at least one contaminated sample was classified as a Salmonella-positive flock. The apparent prevalence of Salmonella was 8.6% (95% CI: 5.7, 11.5%). The most prevalent serovar was S. hadar followed by S. anatum and S. mbandaka. Logistic regression methods were used to analyse the associations between husbandry practices, farm characteristics, general hygiene and the Salmonella status of the sample. The risk for Salmonella contamination of the flock at the end of the rearing period increased when neighbours helped in the placement of day-old chicks. On the contrary, the risk decreased when mobile equipment was dismantled before cleaning and disinfection, when the farm had a specific container for dead-bird disposal and when acetic acid was added to the drinking water.  相似文献   

14.
Pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter spp. have been implicated in outbreaks of food poisoning in the UK and elsewhere. Domestic animals and wildlife are important reservoirs for both of these agents, and cross-contamination from faeces is believed to be responsible for many human outbreaks. Appropriate parameterisation of quantitative microbial-risk models requires representative data at all levels of the food chain. Our focus in this paper is on the early stages of the food chain-specifically, sampling issues which arise at the farm level. We estimated animal–pathogen prevalence from faecal-pat samples using a Bayesian method which reflected the uncertainties inherent in the animal-level prevalence estimates. (Note that prevalence here refers to the percentage of animals shedding the bacteria of interest). The method offers more flexibility than traditional, classical approaches: it allows the incorporation of prior belief, and permits the computation of a variety of distributional and numerical summaries, analogues of which often are not available through a classical framework. The Bayesian technique is illustrated with a number of examples reflecting the effects of a diversity of assumptions about the underlying processes. The technique appears to be both robust and flexible, and is useful when defecation rates in infected and uninfected groups are unequal, where population size is uncertain, and also where the microbiological-test sensitivity is imperfect. We also investigated the determination of the sample size necessary for determining animal-level prevalence from pat samples to within a pre-specified degree of accuracy.  相似文献   

15.
Six of the seven known serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus occur in Africa. This paper describes the results of a population-based cross-sectional study of the seroprevalence of FMD and the persistence of the virus in cattle herds and associated sheep flocks in the Adamawa province of Cameroon. Antibody titres measured by the virus neutralising test indicated that serotypes O, A and SAT2 viruses had been circulating in the province. The estimates of apparent seroprevalence in cattle herds, based on five juvenile animals (eight to 24 months old) per herd, were 74.8 per cent for serotype SAT2, 30.8 per cent for serotype A and 11.2 per cent for serotype O, indicating recent exposure; the estimates based on animals more than 24 months of age were 91.1 per cent for SAT2, 83.6 per cent for A and 34.2 per cent for serotype O. Epithelial and oropharyngeal samples were collected from cattle and small ruminants, cultured and typed by ELISA; serotypes A and SAT2 were isolated from both types of sample. The herd-level estimate of apparent prevalence of probang-positive herds was 19.5 per cent and the animal-level estimate of apparent prevalence was 3.4 per cent. The geographical distribution of the seropositive herds based on juveniles suggested that recent SAT2 exposure was widespread and particularly high in the more northern and western parts of the province, whereas recent exposure to serotype A was patchy and more concentrated in the south and east. This distribution corresponded very closely with the distribution of herds from which virus was recovered by probang, indicating recent exposure or infection. No serotype O viruses were recovered from cattle, and the distribution of seropositive herds suggested very localised recent exposure. The apparent prevalence of probang-positive animals declined with the age of the animal and the period since the last recorded outbreak in the herd.  相似文献   

16.
The study set out to explore risk factors for Salmonella infection in pigs, based on seroprevalence amongst slaughtered pigs, using a large study population of holdings and a comprehensive list of farm characteristics. Farm data were collected from pig quality assurance schemes and supplemented by a postal questionnaire. These data were used with meat juice serology results from ongoing abattoir Salmonella surveillance, for a multivariable risk factor analysis, modelling the ELISA sample to positive ratio directly (ELISA ratio). The study population contained 566 farms, covering a geographically representative spread of farms within the United Kingdom, with a mean average of 224 sample results per holding over a 4-year period. The model highlighted that temporal factors (quarterly and yearly cycles) and monthly meteorological summaries for rainfall, sunshine and temperature were associated with Salmonella presence (P < 0.01). The ELISA ratio was found to be highest in autumn and lowest in spring and summer, whereas yearly averages showed a greater degree of variation than seasonal. Two feed variables (homemix and barley) were found to be protective factors, as was a conventional, rather than organic or freedom foods, farm enterprise type. The number of annual pig deliveries and dead stock collections, and the main cause of pig mortality on the farm were found to be associated with Salmonella infection. Scottish farms had a lower ELISA ratio than other regions, and an increased number of pig farms within a 10-km radius was associated with a higher ELISA ratio. The study demonstrated that the analysis of routinely collected data from surveillance and quality assurance schemes was cost-effective, with sufficient power to detect modest associations between Salmonella and exposure variables. The model results can be used to inform on-farm Salmonella control policies and could target-specific geographical regions and seasons to assist the efficiency of surveillance.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper, choropleth maps display the geographical distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis in red foxes in Lower Saxony. Areas of high prevalence of the infection in foxes and with high fox population density pose high risk for the human population for alveolar echinococcosis. Spatial statistical methods were used to analyse regional count data obtained from 5365 hunted or found-dead foxes. Spatial smoothing (of raw estimates of regional prevalences based on count data before mapping) was used because raw estimates can give an erratic impression of the spatial pattern of the infection. For smoothing, empirical Bayesian methods are used as an explorative spatial epidemiological tool. The resulting map showed the geographical variation of the estimated prevalences around a median at 9% and indicated the presence of spatial-trend effects. Based on this finding, conditional autoregressive spatial modelling for Freeman-Tukey transformed data was used as an inferential spatial epidemiological tool. There were significant additive linear and quadratic spatial-trend effects with elevated prevalences in the north and south and extreme values (prevalences>38%) for the south of Lower Saxony.  相似文献   

18.
This study was aimed at understanding some aspects of the canine heartworm epidemiology in the southern distribution limit of the parasite in South America. With this objective, 19,298 blood samples of owned dogs from 65 localities of 13 municipalities of Buenos Aires Province were tested for Dirofilaria immitis circulating microfilariae and/or female antigens. The overall heartworm prevalence was 1.63% by microhematocrit tube technique (n=19,136), 3.65% by modified Knott (n=713), and 14.41% by antigen test kit (n=118). Microfilaremic dogs showed a median of 1933 microfilariae per millilitre (q1=375, q3=5625, n=100). Male dogs belonging to breeds of short hair and large size recorded significantly higher prevalences than the other categories. Also, the prevalence increased significantly with the age and only dogs younger than 12 months were not found infected. A clear decreasing trend of the annual prevalence was observed during the whole study period, from 3.91% in 2001 to 1.17% in 2006. D. immitis-infected dogs were detected in 32 localities of 9 municipalities (prevalence range: 0.2-6.7%). Generalized linear models were used to assess associations between heartworm prevalence and environmental variables. The resulting significant models were univariate and included variables related with soil cover and human population density. The best model predicted maximum heartworm prevalences around middle values of bare soil cover, and lower at high and low covers. According to our analyses, canine heartworm infection in urban temperate Argentina could be described as relatively low, endemic, and spatially heterogeneous. Host and environmental factors affecting heartworm transmission at local level were identified and discussed.  相似文献   

19.
The aim of this study was to determine the farm prevalence of Salmonella in 90 Alberta finishing swine farms over a 5-month period, to evaluate Salmonella distribution in the farm environment and to describe Salmonella serovar diversity on these farms. Ten veterinary practitioners selected 90 Alberta swine farms based on an annual production of > or =2000 market pigs per farm and the willingness of the producers to participate in the study. Between May and September 2000, twenty samples were collected from finishing swine and the environment of each farm. The annual production of selected farms represented approximately 25% of the market swine production in Alberta. Participating farms were geographically representative of major swine production areas in Alberta. Sixty (66.7%) farms had at least one Salmonella-positive sample, with confidence interval (CI) of 57.1-77.2%. Salmonella were detected in 14.3% of fecal and 20.1% of environmental samples. The number of Salmonella-positive samples per farm ranged from 1 to 19. Among environmental samples, Salmonella were most frequently recovered from boots (38.6%) and the main drain (31.8%). Twenty-two serovars were detected on the 60 Salmonella-positive farms. Serovars Typhimurium (78 isolates), Derby (71 isolates) and Infantis (47 isolates) were the most common. A single serovar was detected on 58 farms, while 2, 3 and >3 serovars were detected on 15, 10 and 7 farms, respectively. The Salmonella farm status changed frequently over the 5-month period indicating the dynamic nature of Salmonella infections on these farms.  相似文献   

20.
Commercial ram flocks in the Tamworth area of northern New South Wales were surveyed to estimate the proportion of flocks, and rams, infected with Brucella ovis. The flock prevalence (percentage of flocks containing seropositive rams) of 9.1% for Merino flocks was significantly lower than that for British-breed flocks (43.8%, p=0.006) and mixed-breed flocks (46.7%, p=0.017). The mean flock prevalence over all flock types was 32.9%. These estimates were supported by data obtained from diagnostic testing for brucellosis carried out during the previous 6 years. The seroprevalence in rams was 10.8% overall, 2.5% for Merinos, 19% for Border Leicester and 26% for Dorset rams. Within infected flocks, the estimated prevalences were 21%, 65% and 67% for Merinos, Border Leicester and Dorset rams respectively. The seroprevalence in Merino rams was significantly lower than that for both other breeds (p<0.001) for all flocks and in infected flocks. There was no apparent association between age and serological status, or age and the prevalence of epididymitis.  相似文献   

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