我国干旱半干旱地区气候变化及其影响

全球气候变化正在直接或间接地对自然生态系统和人类经济社会产生影响,而干旱、半干旱地区的生态系统非常脆弱,对气候变化异常敏感,通过对我国干旱半干旱地区气候变化及影响研究,认为在近50年我国干旱半干旱地区气温上升了1.8℃、降水增多29mm、地表蒸发加大、径流量减少、水资源供求矛盾加剧;农业结构调整,绿洲灌溉区农作物气候产量提高,雨养旱作区农作物产量减少;部分草原生产力下降,病虫害加剧;沙尘暴总体呈减少趋势,但局部地区由于气温升高,土壤水分耗减加速,风沙活动加剧;农业、航空、建筑、渔业、交通、工业均受到影响。     

Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate,Iran

Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables. The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend, while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series. Meanwhile, time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests. The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones, however, after eliminating the serial correlation factor, this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95% confidence level. The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations. The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semi-arid climatic zones. Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones; furthermore, most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation. Furthermore, spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming. Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend; so that, the series which have significant trends are not static. The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues, implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran.     

Climate change,water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

The countries of Central Asia are collectively known as the five "-stans": Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. In recent times, the Central Asian region has been affected by the shrinkage of the Aral Sea, widespread desertification, soil salinization, biodiversity loss, frequent sand storms, and many other ecological disasters. This paper is a review article based upon the collection, identification and collation of previous studies of environmental changes and regional developments in Central Asia in the past 30 years. Most recent studies have reached a consensus that the temperature rise in Central Asia is occurring faster than the global average. This warming trend will not only result in a higher evaporation in the basin oases, but also to a significant retreat of glaciers in the mountainous areas. Water is the key to sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid regions in Central Asia. The uneven distribution, over consumption, and pollution of water resources in Central Asia have caused severe water supply problems, which have been affecting regional harmony and development for the past 30 years. The widespread and significant land use changes in the 1990 s could be used to improve our understanding of natural variability and human interaction in the region. There has been a positive trend of trans-border cooperation among the Central Asian countries in recent years. International attention has grown and research projects have been initiated to provide water and ecosystem protection in Central Asia. However, the agreements that have been reached might not be able to deliver practical action in time to prevent severe ecological disasters. Water management should be based on hydrographic borders and ministries should be able to make timely decisions without political intervention. Fully integrated management of water resources, land use and industrial development is essential in Central Asia. The ecological crisis should provide sufficient motivation to reach a consensus on unified water management throughout the region.     

对西北旱区农业发展战略的思考

讨论了西北旱区农业与农作制的特点及农业发展的三大目标,在此基础上提出农业发展的四大战略:精种战略、脱贫战略、建设我国最大生态屏障——草原战略和投入战略。     

甘肃省伏旱指数特征及多层递阶方法预测

根据甘肃省58个台站1961~2000年伏期降水和气温资料计算其德马东干燥指数,并对其进行EOF分析。结果表明:甘肃省伏旱指数的空间分布特征与降水量分布特征非常相似,伏旱有3种主要空间分布形式和7个气候区域,各区伏旱发生频率是不同的,天水区伏旱发生频率最高,甘肃中部西片最低。用多层递阶方法对各区代表站点的伏旱指数进行预测,可取得较好效果,检验准确率在70%以上。     

内蒙农牧交错带家畜品种改良可行性分析——以克什克腾旗经棚镇为例

引入外来品种改良牲畜被作为干旱半干旱地区发展畜牧业的重要手段,但对其在生产基础差、严重依赖自然资源的小农户生产系统中的适用性却缺乏分析,因而,盲目推广改良可能危及牧民生计,进而导致生态破坏。以位于农牧交错带的内蒙古赤峰市克旗的家畜改良为案例,通过入户访谈,在识别其畜牧业生产系统约束条件的基础上,分析了家畜改良的效果、可行性条件及存在的问题。研究表明:在小农户生产系统中,家畜品种改良并不能提高限制性资源的生产率,而且增加了农户面临的生态风险和市场风险,改良是否可行取决于外部环境能否有效地改善其对限制性资源的利用及平衡风险,尤其是提供稳定的饲料和畜产品市场,以及良好的基础设施、技术及金融保障。     

甘肃中东部旱区秸秆还田量对土壤水分、玉米生物性状及产量的影响

在甘肃省安定区凤翔镇的旱川地上通过大田试验研究了不同秸秆还田量对玉米关键生育期土壤水分、生物性状及产量的影响。试验设计为三个秸秆还田量水平,分别为100%玉米秸秆(10 500 kg·hm-2)粉碎还田、75%玉米秸秆(7 875 kg·hm-2)粉碎还田、50%玉米秸秆(5 250 kg·hm-2)粉碎还田,对照为秸秆不还田。每个处理设3次重复,随机区组排列,玉米秸秆粉碎后均匀翻埋至0~25 cm的土层。结果表明:播前各还田处理0~200 cm土层土壤含水量均较CK有所提高,秸秆还田量由高到低,土壤含水量平均分别提高2.0%、2.8%和1.9%,但不同还田量之间差异不显著;玉米株高、茎粗和叶面积较对照显著增加(P0.05);100%、75%和50%等三个不同秸秆还田量处理的玉米产量较对照分别提高10.3%、5.7%和3.7%,玉米水分利用效率(WUE)较对照分别提高9.2%、4.9%和3.1%。秸秆还田措施可提高土壤的保墒贮水能力,促进作物生长,增加产量,提高水分利用效率。     

Effects of different mulching patterns on soil moisture,temperature, and maize yield in a semi-arid region of the Loess Plateau,China

A study was conducted in the semi-arid region of the Loess Plateau in China to identify an alternative material for use instead of plastic film under maize crops. Plastic film (PMW), straw (SMW), and biodegradable film (BMW) were used for mulching throughout the whole season (fallow and growth periods), in addition to straw for mulching (SMF) only during the fallow period. The results showed that PMW and BMW treatments retained 17 mm and 11 mm more water, respectively, than the mean value of both SMW and SMF treatments, and 53 mm and 38 mm more water than nonmulching (NM) treatment during the fallow period. PMW and BMW treatments increased the soil water and temperature during the early growth stage of maize and significantly improved the dry matter accumulation. Under PMW and BMW treatments, the yield improved by 4.6–6.4 Mg ha^?1 and 2.3–2.8 Mg ha^?1, and the net income increased by 1166 USD ha^?1 and 372 USD ha^?1 compared with NM treatment, respectively. SMW treatment led to poor growth and yield reductions of 3.7 Mg ha^?1 due to the lower temperature, whereas SMF treatment had no significant effects on the yield (P > 0.05). High water consumption with PMW treatment reduced the water supply capacity at the end of the season, and resulted in soil water deficit during 2015, indicating that high yields might not be sustained in the long-term. Therefore, BMW treatment is recommended as an effective method for increasing the maize yield and maintaining the balance of soil water in semi-arid areas.     

抗旱救灾农作制度的建立

在分析甘肃省中东部黄土高原旱作区当前干旱灾害和农业生产现状的基础上,进一步分析了干旱灾害和农业生产模式以及二者的互作效应对农田系统抵御干旱灾害能力的影响.认为抗旱减灾农作制度必须以科学轮作的作物体系、耕地质量保育和自然降水高效利用的栽培技术体系为支撑点.只有建立基于多样化的作物体系、秸秆还田、科学轮作、垄沟种植、二元覆盖和少免耕技术的农作制度,协调农田生产和生态之间的关系,才能够实现甘肃省中东部黄土高原旱作农田水土资源的可持续利用,达到抗旱救灾和农田生产力持续提高的目标.     

甘肃省干旱、半干旱地区可持续发展定量评价研究

针对甘肃省干旱、半干旱区可持续发展综合评价问题 ,建立了评价指标体系 ,以及定量评价模型 ;并运用该模型 ,对该地区各县 (市、区 )可持续发展水平作了定量化评价 ,计算出了每县 (市、区 )从属于“可持续发展”的隶属度 ,有关结果可为该地区区域发展决策提供依据。     

基于DEA和Malmquist模型的甘肃省城市效率及其变化

基于甘肃12个城市2004-2010年城市社会经济的面板数据,运用数据包络分析方法和Malmquist指数,对2004年至2010年甘肃省城市效率及其变化进行分析。结果表明:甘肃省城市综合效率水平一般,内部差异明显,规模效应的抑制是制约综合效率提高的主要因素;甘肃省城市综合效率和生产率变化指数呈现弱衰退的趋势,主要原因是规模效率的下降,且各地市间的综合效率和生产率变化也存在着差异。该研究旨在为评估甘肃省城市效率变化提供定量测算依据,进而为城市的政策制定和调整提供科学依据。     

甘肃中东部半干旱区参考作物蒸散量多种计算方法的比较研究

为明确甘肃中东部丘陵沟壑地区参考作物蒸散量(ET0)在气象资料短缺条件下的计算方法,依据6个气象站的长系列资料,以FAO Penman-Monteith方法为标准,对7种ET0计算方法进行评价。结果表明:Hargreaves与FAO Penman-Monteith吻合最好,其次为Jensen-Haise,各地区年均标准偏差(RMBE)分别为120.0 mm、446.1 mm。Pennman、FAO-17 Penman、FAO-24 Radiation、Preiestley-Taylor计算结果偏高,各地区年均RMBE在3 122.1～1 383.4mm间,以FAO-24 Radiation差异最大。8种方程计算的年内月均ET0趋势基本呈单峰曲线,峰值出现在7月份。Hargreaves、Jensen-Haise两种方程3-9月差异大于1-2月和10-12月份; Penman、FAO-17 Penman、FAO-24Radiation、Preiestley-Taylor、Makkink 5种方程7月份差异最大,地区间表现不一。不同的方程与FAO PenmanMonteith方程均存在显著的线性相关关系(0. 994**≤R≤0.8743**),回归系数t检测均达到显著水平,以FAO Penman-Monteith方程为基础对各方程进行矫正是可行的。     

甘肃省区域经济时空差异GIS-ESDA分析

区域经济差异研究一直是区域经济学、发展经济学研究的核心问题之一,也是世界各国经济发展过程中的一个普遍性问题。一直受到各国学术界和政府决策部门的普遍关注。地处中国西北地区的甘肃省,经济社会发展较为落后,省内区域经济差异问题突出。深入分析甘肃省区域经济差异演变规律及其原因对于探索落后地区经济协调发展道路具有重要的理论和实践意义。文中采用一系列定量测度指标,运用GIS和空间统计分析方法,研究了2000-2006年间甘肃省区域经济差异及其演变规律。基于ESDA全局和局部空间自相关分析,在GIS软件和GeoDA空间统计软件的支持下,利用甘肃省2000-2006年各市、州和县域人均GDP数据,对甘肃省县域经济的总体和局部空间差异进行了实证分析。     

基于GIS与SPSS的甘肃省县域可持续发展区划

以县(区)为基本研究单元,建立适合甘肃省县域可持续发展的评价指标,运用主成分分析法并借助SPSS软件进行分析,计算出甘肃省87个县(区)在生态、经济、社会3个因子的得分.在GIS空间分析功能的支持下,生成甘肃省环境、经济水平和社会水平区划图.结果表明:甘肃省县域可持续发展水平呈现明显的空间差异性,总体来看环境是东部好,西部差;而经济和社会水平都是西部好,东部差.并依此对甘肃省可持续发展提出了优化策略.     

辽西干旱半干旱区免耕行间深松培土对土壤水分及玉米产量的影响

为了探究免耕行间深松培土(集成模式)对辽西干旱半干旱区土壤水分、水分利用效率及玉米产量的影响,依托辽宁省北票市蒙古营乡沈阳农业大学定点试验田,通过监测土壤水分和玉米产量,探讨不同耕作方式(旋耕CK、深松、翻耕、免耕秸秆覆盖、集成模式)对干旱半干旱区春玉米地土壤水分、产量、水分利用效率以及经济效益的影响.结果表明:(1)...     

干旱区农业土地生产力增进中人类活动要素定量研究--以塔里木河流域1980～2000年县域为例

采用探索性数据分析技术——投影寻踪回归(PPR)模型,定量研究了干旱区农业土地生产力影响因素问题。以塔里木河流域40个县市作为研究单元,以近20a(分5个研究时段)的农业土地生产力(粮食产量)作为因变量,人类活动的5个因素(引水量、耕地、人力、化肥和机械力)作为自变量,通过建立PPR模型,研究了这一区域农业土地生产力增进中人类活动因素的贡献度。研究结果表明,耕地、引水量等资源性因素虽然在20世纪90年代后有一定程度的下降,但仍是这一区域生产力增进的主要因素,化肥增进作用显著。结果也表明,PPR模型适合于这类研究。     

GIS-based assessment of non-equilibrium pattern between groundwater recharge and irrigation draft in a semi-arid region of Rajasthan,India

Over-exploitation of groundwater for irrigation can result in drastic reduction in groundwater level in Jodhpur district of western Rajasthan, India. In this study, we used the long-term trend analysis of seasonal groundwater level data to predict the future groundwater scenario in 33 villages of Jodhpur district, assessed the impact of water harvesting structures on groundwater recharge and explored the non-equilibrium between groundwater recharge and irrigation draft in the study area. Analysis of groundwater level data from 26 observation wells in 33 villages in the pre-monsoon period showed that groundwater level decreased continuously at the rate of 2.07 m/a. With this declining rate, most of the tube wells(including the well with the maximum depth of 193 m) are predicted to become completely dry by 2050. Behavior of temporal groundwater level data in the study period(from 2004 to 2012) can be explained by different geospatial maps, prepared using Arc GIS software. Statistical analysis of the interpolated maps showed that the area with the maximum positive groundwater recharge occupied 63.14% of the total area during 2010–2011 and the area with the maximum irrigation draft accounted for 56.21% of the total area during 2011–2012. Higher groundwater recharge is attributed to the increase in rainfall and the better aquifer condition. Spatial distribution for the changes of average groundwater recharge and draft(2008–2009 and 2011–2012) showed that 68.50% recharge area was in positive change and 45.75% draft area was in negative change. It was observed that the area of the irrigation draft exceeded that of the groundwater recharge in most of the years. In spite of the construction of several shallow water harvesting structures in 2009–2010, sandstone aquifer zones showed meager impact on groundwater recharge. The best-fit line for the deviation between average groundwater fluctuation due to recharge and irrigation draft with time can be represented by the polynomial curve. Thus, over-exploitation of groundwater for agricultural crops has result in non-equilibrium between groundwater recharge and irrigation draft.     

Degree of coupling and coordination of eco-economic system and the influencing factors: a case study in Yanchi County,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China

Based on the statistical data, we analyzed and evaluated the degree of coupling and coordination of the eco-economic system in Yanchi County for the period spanning from 1983 to 2014. The eco-economic system can be divided into socioeconomic and ecological sub-systems and their relationship can reveal the interaction state between the two sub-systems and help the local government to establish a coordinated development mode. An index system was constructed to assess the development of the two sub-systems before the evaluation of the degree of coupling and coordination. The principal component regression analysis was adopted to quantitatively assess the influences of natural, economic and social factors on the degree of coupling and coordination of the eco-economic system. Results showed that, from 1983 to 2014, the development trends of both sub-systems were increasing with the ecological sub-system having more fluctuations. The degree of coupling and coordination of the eco-economic system in the study area increased gradually from 1983 to 2014, but experienced five different development stages from the verge of disorder to favorable coordination. The development of the local social and economic conditions was the most important factor influencing the degree of coupling and coordination. The second most important factor was the financial support from the local government. In addition, the environment protection policies also played undeniable roles. Due to the diversity of the influence factors, the government should take comprehensive measures to promote the sustainable development of the eco-economic system.     

Interaction between Cd and Pb in the soil-plant system: a case study of an arid oasis soil-cole system

The Hexi Corridor,our study area,is located in Northwest China and is also the most developed area of oasis farming in arid regions of Northwestern China.However,the rapid development of metallurgy and chemical industries in this region poses a great threat to the accumulation of heavy metals in crops.The objectives of this study are(1)to determine the influence of heavy metals on plant growth;(2)to assess the translocation capability of heavy metals in soil-plant system;and(3)to investigate the interaction between heavy metals.Pot experiments were conducted on cole(Brassica campestris L.)grown in the arid oasis soils singly and jointly treated with cadmium(Cd)and lead(Pb).Nine treatments were applied into the pots.Under the same planting conditions,three scenarios of Cd,Pb and Cd–Pb were designed to compare the interaction between Cd and Pb.The results showed that the response of cole weights to Cd,Pb and Cd–Pb treatments was slight,while Cd and Pb uptakes in cole were more sensitive to the single effects of Cd and Pb concentration in soils from the lower treatment levels.Under the influence of the single Cd,Pb and joint Cd–Pb treatments,Cd concentrations were lower in the cole roots than in the shoots,while for Pb,the results were opposite.Comparison studies revealed that the interaction of Cd and Pb could weaken the cole’s ability to uptake,concentrate and translocate heavy metals in arid oasis soils.