灰色系统理论在有林地面积预测中的应用

文章对灰色系统理论及预测进行了简述,并以黑龙江省森工林区从1981~2006年每相隔5a的有林地面积数据为例,对灰色系统理论应用进行研究探讨。     

灰色系统理论在森林生长量预测中的应用

应用灰色系统理论与方法,以永泰县1987～1997年森林生长量为时间数据序列,建立GM(1,1)生长量预测模型为:X∧t′=-1223-316144e-0-0292919908(t-1)+1223-316144。回测的最大误差为3-06%,平均误差仅为2-01%,回测的精度较高,达96-94%以上。预测模型经后验差检验:C=0-048<0-35,P=1>0-95,模型精度为Ⅰ级模型。     

Dynamic prediction of forest fuel loads by Grey Verhulst model

The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types,phododendron--Larix gmelinii forest,herb--Larix gmelinii forest andherb--Betula platyphlla forest, in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling region was discussed. The dynamic models were developed by gray theory for estimating the fuels loads of arbor, shrub, herbs, grass, litter, and semi-decomposed litter, inflammable fuel and the total fuels in each forest type. After a fire, the inflammable fuel loads inphododendron-Lxirix gmelinii forest and in the herb- -Betula platyphlla fores was estimated at 10.958 t/hm² and 10.473 t/hm² respectively, by 13 years later, and that was 12.297 t/hm² inherb--Larix gmelinii forest by 7 years later. It was predicated that a big fire may occur after 10 years based on inflammable fuel biomass accumulated.     

Tree growth as indicator of tree vitality and of tree reaction to environmental stress: a review

The intensive monitoring plots (Level II) of ICP Forests serve to examine the effects of air pollution and other stress factors on forest condition, including tree vitality. However, tree vitality cannot be measured directly. Indicators, such as tree growth or crown transparency, may instead be used. Tree growth processes can be ranked by order of importance in foliage growth, root growth, bud growth, storage tissue growth, stem growth, growth of defence compounds and reproductive growth. Under stress photosynthesis is reduced and carbon allocation is altered. Stem growth may be reduced early on as it is not directly vital to the tree. Actual growth must be compared against a reference growth, such as the growth of trees without the presumed stress, the growth of presumed healthy trees, the growth in a presumed stress-free period or the expected growth derived from models. Several examples from intensive monitoring plots in Switzerland illustrate how tree-growth reactions to environmental stresses may serve as vitality indicator. Crown transparency and growth can complement each other. For example, defoliation by insects becomes first visible in crown transparency while stem growth reaction occurs with delay. On the other hand, extreme summer drought as observed in large parts of Europe in 2003 affects stem growth almost immediately, while foliage reduction becomes only visible months later. Residuals of tree growth models may also serve as indicators of changed environmental conditions. Certain stresses, such as drought or insect defoliation cause immediate reactions and are not detectable in five-year growth intervals. Therefore, annual or inter-annual stem growth should be assessed in long-term monitoring plots. An erratum to this article can be found at     

An application of Neurogenetic Algorithm System to individual tree growth model

A neural network system with genetic algorithms (Neurogenetic Algorithm System, or NGAS) was employed to develop individual coniferous tree growth models. A multivariable regression model was applied to compare the performance of NGAS. An IBM personal computer with the BioComp System’s software program of NGO was used to execute this comparison. The results indicate that NGAS is more accurate and effective than the conventional regression method in modeling individual tree growth based on the criteria of Sum of Squared Error (SSE), Average Absolute Error (AAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Final Predicted Error (FPE). This study also suggests that individual tree growth may indeed be a non-linear process. Using this flexible neural network system to model individual tree growth can yield satisfactory prediction results.     

The effects of belowground resources on aboveground allometric growth in Bornean tree species

Tree height and crown allometries reflect adaptations for resource acquisition and structural stability, as well as plastic responses to a heterogeneous environment. While both light and soil resources limit growth and influence competitive responses in tropical forests, the effects of belowground resources on allometries are less understood, especially within the understory. To characterize outcomes of tree competition along an edaphic resource gradient, we quantified variation in height and crown allometries of six Bornean tree species from contrasting regeneration niches (light-demanding vs. shade-tolerant) on two soil habitats (clay-fine loam and sandy loam) within a 52-ha forest dynamics plot. Using empirically-fit allometric parameters and diameter growth rates from plot census data, we modeled tree height and crown area growth over the projected life span of each species. Based on resource competition theory, we hypothesized that tree species specializing on and populations of generalist species growing on the relatively moister, more fertile clay-fine loam soil habitat would have faster height and crown growth rates, compared to those on the sandy loam habitat, regardless of regeneration niche. Among soil specialists and within generalists of both genera, trees growing on clay-fine loam had taller stems and larger crowns at a given age and faster height and crown area growth rates at most sizes than trees on sandy loam. Differences in height and crown growth were driven by the faster diameter growth rates of trees on clay-fine loam, not by differences in height- and crown-diameter allometries, as trees on sandy loam were significantly taller at a given diameter, and differences in crown allometry were not consistent across soil habitats. Characterizing the height and crown growth responses of trees along resource gradients provides insight into the mechanisms that maintain diversity in tropical forests. Our results point to the importance of adaptive and plastic responses to both above and belowground resource availability in determining the allometric growth of trees and suggest that this diversity of responses may contribute tree species coexistence through competition-based trade-off mechanisms and variation in growth among individuals. Additionally, as the importance estimating natural carbon sequestration increases with the escalating effects of anthropogenic climate change, differences in tree growth and architecture across soil habitats also have implications for the approximation of forest carbon storage on heterogeneous tropical soils.     

灰色系统理论在森林资源消耗量预测中的应用

本文应用邓聚龙教授创立的灰色系统理论与方法，以林业部华东森林资源监测中心１９８５－１９９３年对我省调查的森林资源消耗量数据为基础，以１９８３－１９８８年和１９８８－１９９３年全省森林资源连续清查复查的森林资源消耗量数据分段控制，建立灰色预测的ＧＭ（１，１）模型群，从中选出一个误差最小的模型，对我省１９９４－２０００年的森林资源消耗量进行预测。预测结果经过１９９４年消耗量调查数据的实践检验，精度达９８．５％。     

Impacts of temperate lianas on tree growth in young deciduous forests

Lianas are often overlooked in temperate ecological studies even though they are important components of forest communities. While lianas have been shown to damage tropical canopy trees and reduce the growth of juvenile trees, the impact of lianas on canopy tree growth in temperate systems is largely unknown. Growth of trees ≥8 cm dbh was examined over a 9-year period within 50-year old post-agricultural secondary forests in the Piedmont region of New Jersey, USA. Five lianas, Celastrus orbiculatus, Lonicera japonica, Parthenocissus quinquefolia, Toxicodendron radicans, and Vitis species, occurred throughout the forest. Total liana basal area, number of stems, and percent cover within host trees were evaluated to assess liana burdens on 606 previously censused trees. These data were related to tree growth to assess liana impacts. Forest trees were separated based on their dominance in the canopy to determine whether lianas had the potential to influence forest composition. In general, lianas in the forests were fairly abundant, with 68% of the trees having at least one liana present. On average, each tree supported 9.7 cm² of liana basal area and 23% of the canopy was covered by lianas. Most of the variation in tree growth was related to the dominance of trees within the canopy, with canopy dominant and co-dominant trees growing 2.5× more than suppressed trees. Liana basal area and number of lianas stems were not related to tree growth, but liana canopy cover decreased tree growth. However, not all trees were equally affected as canopy cover of lianas only reduced growth in dominant and co-dominant trees. Lianas were most influential on host tree growth in unsuppressed trees when occupying a majority of the canopy, only a minority of forest trees. This suppression was not related to differential liana colonization of canopy trees as all canopy classes supported equivalent liana burdens. Though lianas impacted only a minority of the trees in this system, some liana species, C. orbiculatus and Vitis spp., are still increasing and may pose future risks to forest growth and development.     

STUDY ON THE TREE GROWTH, ARCHITECTURE AND STAND STRUCTURE OF KOREAN PINE PLANTATION

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A comparison of wetland tree growth response to hydrologic regime in Louisiana and South Carolina

Numerous investigations have examined the growth of wetland tree species under a variety of hydrologic conditions. Most studies have compared flooded versus non-flooded conditions in greenhouses or in one to a few field sites near each other or within the same region. Comparisons of wetland tree growth among widely separated areas of the country are rare. This study compared the diameter growth of Nyssa sylvatica var. biflora, Nyssa aquatica, and Taxodium distichum trees from Louisiana (Gulf Coastal Plain) and South Carolina (Atlantic Coastal Plain). In both regions, individual trees were distributed along a gradient of hydrologic regimes from infrequent to permanent flooding. Nyssa sylvatica var. biflora was restricted to periodically flooded sites in both regions. Within these sites, this species showed little response to differences in mean water depth. In contrast, significant differences among hydrologic regimes were detected for N. aquatica in both regions. In Louisiana, patterns of growth response did not correlate with the gradient of hydrologic regimes, but in South Carolina maximum growth was inversely related to mean water levels during the growing season. Maximum growth of T. distichum trees was observed at sites with shallow, permanent flooding in both regions.     

Development of tree hollows in pedunculate oak (Quercus robur)

Many invertebrates, birds and mammals are dependent on hollow trees. For landscape planning that aims at persistence of species inhabiting hollow trees it is crucial to understand the development of such trees. In this study we constructed an individual-based simulation model to predict diameter distribution and formation of hollows in oak tree populations. Based on tree ring data from individual trees, we estimated the ages when hollow formation commences for pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) in southeast Sweden. At ages of about 200–300 years, 50% of the trees had hollows. Among trees <100 years old, less than 1% had hollows, while all >400-year-old trees had hollows. Hollows formed at earlier ages in fast-growing trees than in slow-growing trees, which may be because hollows are formed when big branches shed, and branches are thicker on fast-growing trees in comparison to slow-growing trees of the same age. The simulation model was evaluated by predicting the frequency of presence of hollows in relation to tree size in seven oak stands in the study area. The evaluation suggested that future studies should focus on tree mortality at different conditions. Tree ring methods on individual trees are useful in studies on development of hollow trees as they allow analysis of the variability in time for hollow formation among trees.     

酸性土壤铝的形态、迁移特征及林木根系的影响

采用孔洞根系生长法，研究了土壤中不同形态铝含量的变化及对杉木、马尾松根系生长的影响。结果表明：土壤中加入铝离子后，土壤pH下降，活性铝含量明显增加，孔洞中林木根系表现为明显的铝中毒症状；加入钙离子后，土壤pH升高，土壤中活性铝含量显著下降，根系生长得到改善，1a后，与原孔洞中土壤相比，土壤中总铝含量降低，交换态铝含量有所降低，腐殖质铝含量升高。     

Modeling heliotropic tree growth in hardwood tree species—A case study on Maesopsis eminii

There are many impacts during a tree's life that affect bole development. In Maesopsis eminii, a high-potential timber species in Uganda, studies have shown that the occurrence of strongly bent boles is the overwhelming reason that boles fail quality criteria. This observation is incongruous with the tree architecture model of Roux, which describes M. eminii as a tree with a strong apical dominance, meaning that it has a strong genetically based preference for vertical growth of the terminal sprout relative to side branches. As external causes for bent boles could be excluded, we demonstrate in this study the proof of heliotropic growth, i.e. an active bending towards light, for M. eminii beyond the sapling stage. We develop a model used to describe the effects of competition on bole quality using bole form parameters and basic information about the neighbouring trees, and without having to incorporate crown parameters. By means of calculated bole parameters and a mathematical equation to calculate the intensity and direction of competition, we prove the existence of a heliotropic growth reaction. However, we are not able to predict the intensity of this reaction. Finally, general silvicultural recommendations are discussed for tree species with strong heliotropic growth.     

Genetic variation in foliar nutrient concentration in relation to foliar carbon isotope composition and tree growth with clones of the F1 hybrid between slash pine and Caribbean pine

The objectives of this study were: (1) to quantify the genetic variation in foliar nutrient concentration in relation to foliar carbon isotope composition (δ¹³C) and tree growth of 122 clones of ca. 4-year-old F₁ hybrids between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm var. elliottii) and Caribbean pine (P. caribaea var. hondurensis Barr. et Golf.) grown at two experimental sites with different water and nutrient availability in southeast Queensland, Australia and (2) to examine the potential of using foliar nutrient concentration of the 4-year-old tree canopies for selecting elite F₁ hybrid pine clones with improved nutrient-use efficiency (NUE) and water-use efficiency (WUE), and ultimately enhanced tree growth under ambient growing conditions. There were significant differences in foliar nutrient concentrations between two canopy positions (upper outer and lower outer canopy) sampled, between summer and winter, and between the two sites. This highlights that foliar nutrient concentrations are influenced by sampling and environment. Significant genetic variations in foliar nutrient concentrations were detected between the clones, between the female parents, and between the male parents of the clones in both sampling seasons at both sites. Depending on the nutrient concerned, canopy position, season, and site sampled, the clones accounted for 4.7–33.9% of the total variation in foliar nutrient concentrations, the clone female parents for 0–25.1% and the clone male parents for 0–28.6%. The site-by-clone interactions were statistically significant for foliar N, P, Mg, Cu, Zn, Mn, Fe and mineral concentrations at the upper outer canopy in summer, and for foliar N concentration in winter. There were significant, positive correlations between clone means of foliar δ¹³C and N concentration at the upper outer canopy in summer for the wet site, while clone foliar δ¹³C was also positively related to clone foliar N concentration at both canopy positions in summer for the dry site. This suggests that clone WUE as reflected in foliar δ¹³C may be improved by selecting elite clones with higher foliar N concentration and increased photosynthesis, leading to enhanced tree growth when both water and N are the major growth-limiting factors. This is supported by the positive correlation detected between clone tree height and foliar N concentration at the upper outer canopy for both sites. Thus, foliar nutrient (particularly N) concentration, together with foliar δ¹³C, may be useful for assisting in selection of exotic pine clones with improved NUE and WUE, and enhanced tree growth under the nutrient- and water-limiting environments.     

Soil solution,foliar concentrations and tree growth response to 3-year of ammonium-nitrate addition in two boreal forests of Québec,Canada

Ammonium nitrate (NH₄NO₃) was applied monthly (from June to October) for 3 years in a balsam fir (Abies balsamea (Linné) Miller) and a black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) boreal forest in Québec (Canada). The design was composed of nine experimental units of 10 m × 10 m for each site. Application rates were 3 and 10 times the atmospheric N deposition measured at each site which was 6 and 3 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ for the fir and the spruce sites, respectively. Soil solution composition (30 and 60 cm), tree growth, and foliar concentrations were analysed. The inorganic N in the soil solution of the control plots of both sites was low, particularly at the spruce site indicating that these forests are actively accumulating the atmospheric deposited N. Nitrogen additions regularly caused sudden and large inorganic N increases in the soil solution at both sites, both treatments and both sampling depths. However, these increases were transitory in nature and no persistent changes in inorganic N were observed. It was estimated that more than 95% of the added N was retained above the rooting zone at both sites. Nitrogen addition increased N, Ca, Mg and Mn foliar concentrations at the black spruce site but had no effects at the balsam fir site. After 3 years of N application, tree growth was similar in the control and the treated plots at both sites. Our results show that slow growing black spruce boreal forests with low ambient N deposition are responsive (in term of foliar N, Ca, Mg and Mn concentrations) to even small increases in N inputs, compared to higher growth balsam fir boreal forests with higher N deposition.     

Tree and livestock productivity in relation to tree planting configuration in a silvopastoral system in North Wales, UK

Silvopastoral systems in Europe offer the potential of introducing environmental benefits while at the same time increasing the diversity of farm outputs. The establishment of new silvopastoral systems by planting young trees into existing pasture was investigated at a site in North Wales, UK. Two tree species, sycamore (Acer pseudo-platanus L.) and red alder(Alnus rubra Bong.), were planted into pasture at a range of densities and planting arrangements. Growth of trees planted in farm woodland blocks (2500 stems ha^–1) was compared with the growth of trees planted at 400 stems ha^–1 in clumps and dispersed throughout the plot and at 100 stems ha^–1 (dispersed). Over the first six years after planting, alder trees were significantly taller and larger in diameter than sycamore. Sycamore trees planted at close spacing in farm woodland or clumped arrangements were significantly larger in diameter than widely spaced sycamore at 100 and 400 stems ha^–1. Livestock productivity was unaffected by the presence of trees during the six-year establishment phase of the system. The planting of trees in a clumped pattern appears to combine silvicultural benefits to tree growth with agricultural benefits of maintaining livestock production while trees are established.This revised version was published online in November 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

浅谈中国南岭山地树种资源保护

根据中国南岭山地树种资源现状分析了其保护的意义和效益,提出了保护方法、措施及手段。     

The contribution of competition to tree mortality in old-growth coniferous forests

Competition is a well-documented contributor to tree mortality in temperate forests, with numerous studies documenting a relationship between tree death and the competitive environment. Models frequently rely on competition as the only non-random mechanism affecting tree mortality. However, for mature forests, competition may cease to be the primary driver of mortality.We use a large, long-term dataset to study the importance of competition in determining tree mortality in old-growth forests on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S.A. We make use of the comparative spatial configuration of dead and live trees, changes in tree spatial pattern through time, and field assessments of contributors to an individual tree's death to quantify competitive effects.Competition was apparently a significant contributor to tree mortality in these forests. Trees that died tended to be in more competitive environments than trees that survived, and suppression frequently appeared as a factor contributing to mortality. On the other hand, based on spatial pattern analyses, only three of 14 plots demonstrated compelling evidence that competition was dominating mortality. Most of the rest of the plots fell within the expectation for random mortality, and three fit neither the random nor the competition model. These results suggest that while competition is often playing a significant role in tree mortality processes in these forests it only infrequently governs those processes. In addition, the field assessments indicated a substantial presence of biotic mortality agents in trees that died.While competition is almost certainly important, demographics in these forests cannot accurately be characterized without a better grasp of other mortality processes. In particular, we likely need a better understanding of biotic agents and their interactions with one another and with competition.     

基于灰色理论的雾滴尺寸参数预测研究

雾滴尺寸参数影响喷雾技术的应用效果.应用灰色理论建立雾滴粒径预测的GM(1,1)模型,实验表明该方法对雾滴粒径的预测精度较高,并可为某一雾滴粒径范围内的喷雾系统参数选择提供指导.     

基于灰色系统理论的祁连圆柏林分特征分析

以青海省不同地区的圆柏林分为研究对象,利用灰色关联分析法对林分立地质量进行评估的基础上,构建以立地得分为时间序列的林分胸径和树高的非等间距灰色模型.研究结果表明:立地质量与林分生长有着十分明显的关联性,即随着立地质量的提高,圆柏林分的生长状况也有明显提高;在海拔、坡度、坡向、坡位、全氮、有效磷、有机质、碱解氮、土层厚度...