Planning for the future: identifying conservation priority areas for Iberian birds under climate change

Context

Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity.

Objectives

We identify conservation priority areas for current and future projected distributions of Iberian bird species. We then investigate the extent to which global change informed priority areas are: (i) covered by existing protected area networks (national protected areas and Natura 2000); (ii) threatened by agricultural or urban land-use changes.

Methods

We use outputs of species distributions models fitted with climatic data as inputs in spatial prioritization tools to identify conservation priority areas for 168 bird species. We use projections of land-use change to then discriminate between threatened and non-threatened priority areas.

Results

19% of the priority areas for birds are covered by national protected areas and 23% are covered by Natura 2000 sites. The spatial mismatch between protected area networks and priority areas for birds is projected to increase with climate change. But there are opportunities to improve the protection of birds under climate change, as half of the priority areas are currently neither protected nor in conflict with urban or agricultural land-uses.

Conclusions

We identify critical areas for bird conservation both under current and climate change conditions, and propose that they could guide the establishment of new conservation areas across the Iberian Peninsula complementing existing protected areas.

     

In the bleak mid-winter: The value of brownfield sites for birds during the winter

Brownfield sites (e.g., wastelands, disused industrial grounds and power stations) are valuable refuges for urban birds during the breeding season. This owes to the presence of vegetation in different stages of succession, which provide a high diversity of food and breeding resources. However, insufficient research has explored their winter value, when temperatures are lower and food is scarcer. Accordingly, 342 bird and habitat surveys were conducted in brownfield sites, and other land-uses, across Greater Manchester. Bird density estimates were then calculated using Distance software and bird-habitat associations were analysed using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Moreover, the impact of brownfield site development on winter bird density from 2000 to 2009 in Greater Manchester was explored using the bird density estimates, and historical image function in Google Earth. In brownfield sites, Pica pica had the highest density estimate (142 per km²), although four species had estimated densities > 100 per km² (Turdus merula; Cyanistes caeruleus; Passer domesticus; Aegithalos caudatus). The CCA indicated that Aegithalos caudatus, Cyanistes caeruleus, Parus major, Prunella modularis were associated with Fagus sylvatica, Betula pendula, and Buddleja davidii on brownfield sites, which during the winter 1) produce seeds 2) support overwintering insects, providing a valuable food source. Nevertheless, across land-uses, most species favoured green space and pre-2000 housing. Brownfield sites were most replaced between 2000 and 2009, with 17.8 km², 14.9 km², and 12 km² replaced by commercial, industrial, and post-2000 housing respectively. This is likely to have had a negative impact on the winter density of most bird species, owing to 1) the removal of brownfield site vegetation 2) increases in impervious land cover. Future declines in winter bird abundance could be mitigated by retaining brownfield site vegetation and setting aside brownfield sites in close proximity to green space and pre-2000 housing.     

Climate change and landscape fragmentation jeopardize the population viability of the Siberian tiger (Panthera tigris altaica)

The Amur tiger, a flagship species of the boreal forest ecosystem in Russian Far East and northeastern China, has declined dramatically in population and geographic distribution due to human caused habitat fragmentation and poaching over the past century. The fate of this largest feline species will also be influenced by the worsening impacts of climate change. In this paper we assess the possible effects of climate change (three scenarios from the 2007 IPCC Report) on the Amur tiger by integrating species distribution modeling (SDM) and population viability analysis (PVA). We projected the potential and realized suitable habitat distributions to examine the impacts from anthropogenic factors, and evaluated the changes of suitable habitat and extinction risk for 100 years under climate change. The realized suitable habitat was projected to be more severely fragmented than the potential suitable habitat because of human-related factors. The potential suitable habitat would expand northward under all climate change scenarios considered. However, the tiger population would suffer the largest decline and highest extinction risk in the next 100 years under the worst climate change scenario (A1B) even though the size of potential habitat would be greatest. Under climate change, the tiger population could persist for the next century only if the size and quality of current habitat patches would remain intact. In addition, our study demonstrated that using SDM alone could grossly overestimate the geographic distribution of the Amur tiger, and that coupling SDM and PVA could provide important insights into conservation planning to mitigate the effects of climate change.     

Past and predicted future effects of housing growth on open space conservation opportunity areas and habitat connectivity around National Wildlife Refuges

Context

Housing growth can alter suitability of matrix habitats around protected areas, strongly affecting movements of organisms and, consequently, threatening connectivity of protected area networks.

Objectives

Our goal was to quantify distribution and growth of housing around the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System. This is important information for conservation planning, particularly given promotion of habitat connectivity as a climate change adaptation measure.

Methods

We quantified housing growth from 1940 to 2000 and projected future growth to 2030 within three distances from refuges, identifying very low housing density open space, “opportunity areas” (contiguous areas with <6.17 houses/km²), both nationally and by USFWS administrative region. Additionally, we quantified number and area of habitat corridors within these opportunity areas in 2000.

Results

Our results indicated that the number and area of open space opportunity areas generally decreased with increasing distance from refuges and with the passage of time. Furthermore, total area in habitat corridors was much lower than in opportunity areas. In addition, the number of corridors sometimes exceeded number of opportunity areas as a result of habitat fragmentation, indicating corridors are likely vulnerable to land use change. Finally, regional differences were strong and indicated some refuges may have experienced so much housing growth already that they are effectively too isolated to adapt to climate change, while others may require extensive habitat restoration work.

Conclusions

Wildlife refuges are increasingly isolated by residential housing development, potentially constraining the movement of wildlife and, therefore, their ability to adapt to a changing climate.

     

Quantifying the spatial relationship between bird species’ distributions and landscape feature boundaries in southern Ontario, Canada

Understanding what features of the landscape affect species distribution is critical to effectively implement conservation strategies. This study investigates how a boundary analysis framework can be used to characterize the spatial association between boundaries (i.e., spatial locations of high rates of change) in bird species?? distributions and landscape features at the regional scale. The study area covers 92,000?km² in southern Ontario (Canada) and extends from the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence biome to the southern Canadian Shield biome. Landcover composition was derived from Ontario Land Cover data (1991?C1998; 7 types) and elevation data were derived from the Canada3D digital elevation model. Bird distributions were estimated using indicator kriging based on point counts obtained from the Ontario Breeding Bird Atlas data (2001?C2005; 60 species). Boundaries were delineated for both data types using a 10?×?10?km cell resolution. Spatial boundary overlap statistics were used to quantify the spatial relationship between landscape features and bird boundaries and tested using a randomization procedure. There was significant positive association and spatial overlap between delineated landscape feature boundaries and bird boundaries. The number of spatially overlapping cells between the two boundary types was 67 out of 164 (41?%) and 76?% of cells were within 11.42?km of each other. These results were statistically significant (P?<?0.001) and suggest a strong spatial relationship between high rates of change in landscape features and bird species?? distributions at the regional scale. A boundary analysis framework could be used to identify boundary shifts in response to climate change and anticipate changes in species distributions.     

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

Context

Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.

Objectives

The goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.

Methods

We conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.

Results

We uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.

Conclusions

Future distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

     

Climate change and ecosystem composition across large landscapes

Context

Climate change alters the vegetation composition and functioning of ecosystems. Measuring the magnitude, direction, and rate of changes in vegetation composition induced by climate remains a serious and unmet challenge. Such information is required for a predictive capability of how individual ecosystem will respond to future climates.

Objectives

Our objectives were to identify the relationships between 20 climate variables and 39 ecosystems across the southwestern USA. We sought to understand the magnitude of relationships between variation in vegetation composition and bioclimatic variables as well as the amount of ecosystem area expected to be affected by future climate changes.

Methods

Bioclimatic variables best explaining the plant species composition of each ecosystem were identified. The strength of relationships between beta turnover and bioclimate gradients was calculated, the spatial concordance of ecosystem and bioclimate configurations was shown, and the area of suitable climate remaining within the boundaries of contemporary ecosystems under future climate projections was measured.

Results

Across the southwestern USA, four climate variables account for most of the climate related variation in vegetation composition. Twelve ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change. By 2070, two ecosystems lose about 4000 (15 %) and 7000 (31 %) km² of suitable climate area within their current boundaries (the Western Great Plains Sandhill Steppe and Sonora-Mojave Creosotebush-White Bursage Desert Scrub ecosystems, respectively). The climatic areas of riparian ecosystems are expected to be reduced by half.

Conclusions

Results provide specific climate and vegetation parameters for anticipating how, where and when ecosystem vegetation transforms with climate change. Projecting the loss of suitable climate for the vegetation composition of ecosystems is important for assessing ecosystem threats from climate change and for setting priorities for ecosystem conservation and restoration across the southwestern USA.

     

Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

Context

Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climate-induced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change.

Objectives

We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian abundance through changes in forest landscapes and assessed impacts on bird abundances of forest management strategies designed to mitigate climate change effects.

Methods

We coupled a Bayesian hierarchical model with a spatially explicit landscape simulation model (LANDIS PRO) to predict avian relative abundance. We considered multiple climate scenarios and forest management scenarios focused on carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change over 100 years.

Results

Management had a greater impact on avian abundance (almost 50% change under some scenarios) than climate (<3% change) and only early successional and coniferous forest showed significant change in percent cover across time. The northern bobwhite was the only species that changed in abundance due to climate-induced changes in vegetation. Northern bobwhite, prairie warbler, and blue-winged warbler generally increased in response to warming temperatures but prairie warbler exhibited a non-linear response and began to decline as summer maximum temperatures exceeded 36 °C at the end of the century.

Conclusion

Linking empirical models with process-based landscape change models can be an effective way to predict climate change and management impacts on wildlife, but time frames greater than 100 years may be required to see climate related effects. We suggest that future research carefully consider species-specific effects and interactions between management and climate.

     

High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes

Context

Predicting climate-driven species’ range shifts depends substantially on species’ exposure to climate change. Mountain landscapes contain a wide range of topoclimates and soil characteristics that are thought to mediate range shifts and buffer species’ exposure. Quantifying fine-scale patterns of exposure across mountainous terrain is a key step in understanding vulnerability of species to regional climate change.

Objectives

We demonstrated a transferable, flexible approach for mapping climate change exposure in a moisture-limited, mountainous California landscape across 4 climate change projections under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for mid-(2040–2069) and end-of-century (2070–2099).

Methods

We produced a 149-year dataset (1951–2099) of modeled climatic water deficit (CWD), which is strongly associated with plant distributions, at 30-m resolution to map climate change exposure in the Tehachapi Mountains, California, USA. We defined climate change exposure in terms of departure from the 1951–1980 mean and historical range of variability in CWD in individual years and 3-year moving windows.

Results

Climate change exposure was generally greatest at high elevations across all future projections, though we encountered moderate topographic buffering on poleward-facing slopes. Historically dry lowlands demonstrated the least exposure to climate change.

Conclusions

In moisture-limited, Mediterranean-climate landscapes, high elevations may experience the greatest exposure to climate change in the 21st century. High elevation species may thus be especially vulnerable to continued climate change as habitats shrink and historically energy-limited locations become increasingly moisture-limited in the future.

     

Sensitivity of ecosystem goods and services projections of a forest landscape model to initialization data

Projections of indicators of forest ecosystem goods and services (EGS) based on process-based landscape models are critical for adapting forest management to climate change. However, the scarcity of fine-grained, spatially explicit forest data means that initializing these models is both a challenge and a source of uncertainty. To test how different initialization approaches influence the simulation of forest dynamics and EGS indicators we initialized the forest landscape model LandClim with fine resolution empirical data, coarse empirical data, and simulation-derived data, and evaluated the results at three spatial scales (stand, management area and landscape). Simulations were performed for a spruce (Picea abies) dominated landscape in the Black Forest, Germany, under current climate and a climate change scenario. We found that long-term (>150 years) projections are robust to initialization uncertainty. In contrast, shorter-term projections are sensitive to initialization uncertainty, with sensitivity increasing when EGS are assessed at smaller spatial scales, and when the EGS indicators depend on the spatial distribution of individual species. EGS dynamics are strongly influenced by interactions between the density, species composition, and age structure of initialized forests and simulated forest management. If EGS dynamics are strongly influenced by climate change, such as when climate change induces mortality in drought-sensitive species, some of the initialization uncertainty can be masked. We advocate for initializing landscape models with fine-grained data in applications that focus on spatial management problems in heterogeneous landscapes, and stress that the scale of analysis must be in accordance with the accuracy that is warranted by the initialization data.     

Graph theory as an invasive species management tool: case study in the Sonoran Desert

Context

Biodiversity in arid regions is usually concentrated around limited water resources, so natural resource managers have constructed artificial water catchments in many areas to supplement natural waters. Because invasive species may also use these waters, dispersing into previously inaccessible areas, the costs and benefits of artificial waters must be gauged and potential invasion- and climate change-management strategies assayed.

Objectives

We present a network analysis framework to identify waters that likely contribute to the spread of invasive species.

Methods

Using the Sonoran Desert waters network and the American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus)—a known predator, competitor, and carrier of pathogens deadly to other amphibians—as an example, we quantified the structural connectivity of the network to predict regional invasion potential under current and two future scenarios (climate change and management reduction) to identify waters to manage and monitor for invasive species.

Results

We identified important and vulnerable waters based on connectivity metrics under scenarios representing current conditions, projected climate-limited conditions, and conditions based on removal of artificial waters. We identified 122,607 km² of land that could be used as a buffer against invasion and 67,745 km² of land that could be augmented by artificial water placement without facilitating invasive species spread.

Conclusions

Structural connectivity metrics can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies for invasive species and climate mitigation.

     

Incidence of competitors and landscape structure as predictors of woodland-dependent birds

Globally, modification of landscapes for agriculture has had a strong influence on the distribution and abundance of biota. In particular, woodland-dependent birds are under threat across agricultural landscapes in Britain, North America and Australia, with their decline and extirpation attributed to the loss and fragmentation of habitat. Other native species have become over-abundant in response to anthropogenic landscape change and have strong interactive effects on avian assemblage structure. In eastern Australia, the hyper-aggressive noisy miner (Manorina melanocephala) often dominates woodlands in agricultural landscapes through interspecific competition, resulting in declines of species richness of woodland-dependent birds. We aimed to determine the relative influence and importance of interspecific competition, in situ habitat structure and landscape structure for woodland-dependent bird species at the landscape level. We recorded species-specific landscape incidence of woodland-dependent birds in 24 agricultural-woodland mosaics (25 km²) in southern Queensland, Australia. We selected extensively cleared landscapes (10–23 % woodland cover) where fragmentation effects are expected to be greatest. We applied generalised linear models and hierarchical partitioning to quantify the relative importance of the landscape-level incidence of the noisy miner, mistletoe abundance, shrub cover, woodland extent, woodland subdivision and land-use intensity for the incidence of 46 species of woodland birds at the landscape-scale. The landscape-level incidence of the noisy miner was the most important explanatory variable across the assemblage. Both in situ habitat structure and landscape structure were of secondary importance to interspecific aggression, although previous research suggests that the increasing incidence of the noisy miner in fragmented agricultural landscapes is itself a consequence of anthropogenic changes to landscape structure. Species’ responses to fragmentation varied from positive to negative, but complex habitat structure had a consistently positive effect, suggesting in situ restoration of degraded habitats could be a conservation priority. Landscape wide conservation of woodland-dependent bird populations in agricultural landscapes may be more effective if direct management of noisy miner populations is employed, given the strong negative influence of this species on the incidence of woodland-dependent birds among landscapes.     

Modeling and field-testing of Ovenbird (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Seiurus aurocapillus</Emphasis>) responses to boreal forest dissection by energy sector development at multiple spatial scales

Although the area disturbed by linear features in forested systems is small relative to many other human disturbances, linear features create significantly more amounts of edge per unit area. In the boreal plains of Alberta, Canada, energy sector exploration has resulted in extensive dissection of the landscape through 8 m wide seismic lines. A spatially explicit model was developed to test how bird abundance might change in response to increasing seismic line density if individuals use seismic lines as territory boundaries or actively avoid these edges. Assuming birds had fixed territory shape and size, increasing seismic line density from 0 to 8 km/km² resulted in a 38% decline and an 82% decline in bird abundance when individuals used lines as territory boundaries or avoided edges by 50 m, respectively. We tested the assumptions of our model using the Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus). Based on radio-telemetry (n = 12), all Ovenbirds crossed seismic lines at some point during the breeding season. However, male Ovenbirds showed a distinct use of one side of the seismic line, suggesting lines acted as territory boundaries. In 12.25 ha plots (n = 24) spot-mapping detected no change in Ovenbird density as linear feature density increased from 0 to 8.6 km/km². In 4 km² landscapes (n = 62) sampled using a grid of nine point-counts, we also detected no changes in Ovenbird numbers across the same range of seismic line densities. Ovenbirds declined with seismic line density at the level of the individual point-count station (12 ha scale), but only when a threshold seismic line density of 8.5 km/km² was reached. Above the threshold, Ovenbirds declined 19% for each 1 km/km² increase in seismic line density. While relatively few places in Alberta’s boreal forest have local seismic line densities of 8.5 km/km², forest dissection could increasingly become an issue if current energy exploration practices continue.     

Land cover influences boreal-forest fire responses to climate change: geospatial analysis of historical records from Alaska

Context

Wildfire activity in boreal forests is projected to increase dramatically in response to anthropogenic climate change. By altering the spatial arrangement of fuels, land-cover configuration may interact with climate change to influence fire-regime dynamics at landscape and regional scales.

Objectives

We evaluate how land cover interacts with weather conditions to influence boreal-forest burning from 2012 to 2014 in Alaska.

Methods

Using geospatial fire and land-cover data, we quantify relationships between area burned and land cover, and test whether observed patterns of burning differ from random under varying weather conditions and fire sizes.

Results

Mean summer moisture index was correlated with annual area burned (ρ = ?0.78, p < 0.01), the total number of fires (ρ = ?0.68, p = 0.01), and the number of large fires (>500 km²; ρ = ?0.58, p = 0.04). Area burned was related positively to percent cover of coniferous forest and woody wetlands, and negatively to percent cover of shrub scrub, dwarf scrub, and open water and barren areas. Fires preferentially burned coniferous forest, which represented 50.1 % of the area burned in warmer/drier summers and 40.3 % of area burned in cooler/wetter summers, compared to the 34.5 % (±4.2 %) expected by random selection of land-cover classes. Overall vegetation tended to burn more similarly to random in warmer/drier than cooler/wetter years.

Conclusions

Land cover exerted greater influences on boreal fire regimes when weather conditions were less favorable for forest burning. Reliable projections of boreal fire-regime change thus require consideration of the interactions between climate and land cover, as well as feedbacks from land-cover change.

     

Modelling Habitat Suitability for Deciduous Forest Focal Species – A Sensitivity Analysis using Different Satellite Land Cover Data

We explored the usefulness of three satellite land cover data sets available to land managers in south-central Sweden for conservation planning using four deciduous forest focal resident bird species with different habitat requirements. Habitat suitability models using empirical species-specific habitat parameters and a Geographic Information System were applied to evaluate and compare the degree of consistency among three different land cover data sets. The study area encompassed 10,000 km² in a landscape mosaic of managed boreal forests and is within the distribution range of all four focal species. Although the three land cover data sets indicated similar total amounts of deciduous forest, the habitat suitability models showed that different land cover data yielded inconsistent results regarding the amount and distribution of suitable habitat within 5×5 km grid cells. Given this sensitivity to the choice of land cover data sets, the habitat suitability models showed positive relationships among the selected focal species for each land cover data set separately. As expected, decreasing amounts of suitable habitat were identified for species with higher specialisation. Thus, because habitat suitability models are an appropriate way to gain insight into the functionality and connectivity of habitat networks, land cover data must be carefully evaluated and if necessary combined with other landscape information for effective conservation planning.     

Associations of Bird Species Richness and Community Composition with Local and Landscape-scale Environmental Factors in Borneo

A comprehensive understanding of variables associated with spatial differences in community composition is essential to explain and predict biodiversity over landscape scales. In this study, spatial patterns of bird diversity in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, were examined and associated with local-scale (habitat structure and heterogeneity) and landscape-scale (logging, slope position and elevation) environmental variables. Within the study area (c. 196 km²) local habitat structure and heterogeneity varied considerably, largely due to logging. In total 9747 individuals of 177 bird species were recorded. Akaike's information criterion (AIC) revealed that the best explanatory models of bird community similarity and species richness included both local- and landscape-scale environmental variables. Important local-scale variables included liana abundance, fern cover, sapling density, tree density, dead wood abundance and tree architecture, while important landscape-scale variables were elevation, logging and slope position. Geographic distance between sampling sites was not significantly associated with spatial variation in either species richness or similarity. These results indicate that deterministic environmental processes, as opposed to dispersal-driven stochastic processes, primarily structure bird assemblages within the spatial scale of this study and confirm that highly variable local habitat measures can be effective means of predicting landscape-scale community patterns.     

Influence of environmental factors and spatio-temporal covariates during the initial development of a spruce budworm outbreak

Recurrent and synchronous spruce budworm (SBW) outbreaks have important impacts in boreal and sub-boreal forest ecosystems of North America. This study examines the early phase of an outbreak that was developing across a 268,000 km² area over a period of 9 years (2003–2011). The territory was subdivided in 225 km² cells, and the relative influence of forest composition, elevation, forest age, average degree-days and soil drainage were examined during three development phases of the outbreak: initial epicenter location, relatively long-distance spread (cell-to-cell expansion), and expansion inside individual cells (within-cell expansion). The results indicate that elevation is the most determinant variable for initial epicenter location. Other variables that were identified as important for outbreak development by previous studies, such as forest composition and average degree-days, were not so important during this phase. However, forest composition and average degree-days were important factors during the cell-to-cell and within-cell expansion phases. Separating outbreak development in distinct phases also allowed to integrate phase-specific spatial and temporal covariates that were highly significant in the models, such as distance from previous year defoliations during the cell-to-cell expansion phase, and the proportion of defoliated stands during the preceding year for the within-cell expansion phase. Overall, this study provides limited evidence that patterns of SBW outbreak expansion could be altered by reducing host tree species abundance in the forest [mainly balsam fir (Abies balsamea) in this region]. More generally, this study suggests that the influence of environmental variables on SBW outbreak development is clearly phase-dependent, and that this landscape-level, process-based approach could be useful to forecast insect outbreak development in forest ecosystems.     

Multi-scale responses of bird species to tree cover and development in an urbanizing landscape

Landscape change is an ongoing process for even the most established landscapes, especially in context to urban intensification and growth. As urbanization increases over the next century, supporting bird species’ populations within urbanizing areas remains an important conservation challenge. Fundamental elements of the biophysical structure of urban environments in which bird species likely respond include tree cover and human infrastructure. We broadly examine how tree cover and urban development structure bird species distributions along the urban-rural gradient across multiple spatial scales. We established a regional sampling design within the Oak Openings Region of northwestern, Ohio, USA, to survey bird species distributions across an extensive urbanization gradient. Through occupancy modeling, we obtained standardized effects of bird species response to local and landscape-scale predictors and found that landscape tree cover influenced the most species, followed by landscape impervious surface, local building density, and local tree cover. We found that responses varied according to habitat affiliation and migratory distance of individual bird species. Distributions of short-distance, edge habitat species located towards the rural end of the gradient were explained primarily by low levels of urbanization and potential vegetative and supplemental resources associated with these areas, while forest species distributions were primarily related to increasing landscape tree cover. Our findings accentuate the importance of scale relative to urbanization and help target where potential actions may arise to benefit bird diversity. Management will likely need to be implemented by municipal governments and agencies to promote tree cover at landscape scale, followed by residential land management education for private landowners. These approaches will be vital in sustaining biodiversity in urbanizing landscapes as urban growth expands over the next century.     

Overwintering in a megacity: Urban green areas and migratory birds in Mexico City

Nearctic-Neotropical migratory birds are threatened by land-use change throughout their complex annual cycles. While urbanization is an essential driver of land-use change, it is unclear how it affects migrant birds. Although migratory birds are more diverse in non-urban patches of native vegetation than in urban areas, neotropical cities can host diverse assemblages of overwintering migrant birds. Migratory birds in neotropical cities tend to be closely associated with urban green areas (UGAs). However, how their presence and abundance are affected by the habitat elements of UGAs and the urban matrix of neotropical cities is poorly understood. In this study, we compared the migratory bird species richness and abundances among UGAs and the urban matrix of the southern section of the megacity of Mexico City and native vegetation sites outside the city. Our results show that UGAs in neotropical cities provide habitats capable of maintaining complex overwintering migratory bird assemblages with local trees as critical features. We also assess the role that UGAs' characteristics play in determining migrant bird assemblages. We conducted bird censuses and measured habitat traits to determine how migrant bird assemblages are related to the habitat features of our study sites. We measured local, buffer, and spatial habitat features of each UGA. We found 23 overwintering migrant species in the three habitats, with 22 present within UGAs. Both UGAs and urban matrix sites had higher estimated species richness of migrant birds than non-urban native vegetation sites located outside the city. Only local features of UGAs affected migrant birds. While tree abundance in UGAs was positively associated with migratory bird species richness, the proportion of tree coverage was positively related to bird abundance. Our results show that UGAs in neotropical cities can maintain complex overwintering migratory bird assemblages, with trees being the most critical habitat feature. As a result, UGA management focused on maintaining trees and increasing their numbers can improve habitat conditions for migratory birds overwintering in neotropical cities.     

Forest fragmentation, climate change and understory fire regimes on the Amazonian landscapes of the Xingu headwaters

Understory fire modeling is a key tool to investigate the cornerstone concept of landscape ecology, i.e. how ecological processes relate to landscape structure and dynamics. Within this context, we developed FISC??a model that simulates fire ignition and spread and its effects on the forest carbon balance. FISC is dynamically coupled to a land-use change model to simulate fire regimes on the Amazonian landscapes of the Xingu Headwaters under deforestation, climate change, and land-use management scenarios. FISC incorporates a stochastic cellular automata approach to simulate fire spread across agricultural and forested lands. CARLUC, nested in FISC, simulates fuel dynamics, forest regrowth, and carbon emissions. Simulations of fire regimes under modeled scenarios revealed that the major current and future driver of understory fires is forest fragmentation rather than climate change. Fire intensity proved closely related to the landscape structure of the remaining forest. While climate change may increase the percentage of forest burned outside protected areas by 30% over the next four decades, deforestation alone may double it. Nevertheless, a scenario of forest recovery and better land-use management would abate fire intensity by 18% even in the face of climate change. Over this time period, the total carbon balance of the Xingu??s forests varies from an average net sink of 1.6?ton?ha^?1?year^?1 in the absence of climate change, fire and deforestation to a source of ?0.1?ton?ha^?1?year^?1 in a scenario that incorporates these three processes.