Coupling an oceanographic model to a Fishery Observing System through mixed models: the importance of fronts for anchovy in the Adriatic Sea

Anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus, forms the basis of Italian small pelagic fisheries in the Adriatic Sea. The strong dependence of this stock on environmental factors and the consequent high variability makes the dynamics of this species particularly complicated to model. Weekly geo‐referenced catch data of anchovy obtained by means of a Fishery Observing System (FOS) from 2005 to 2011 were referred to a 0.2 × 0.2 degree grid (about 20 km²) and associated with the environmental parameters calculated by a Regional Ocean Modelling System, AdriaROMS. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMM) with and without random effects were used to identify a relationship between abundance in the catch and oceanographic conditions. The outcomes of models with no random effects, with random vessel effects and with the random vessel and random week‐of‐the‐year effects were examined. The GAMM incorporating a random vessel and week‐of‐the‐year effect were selected as the best model on the basis of the Akaike information criteria (AIC). This model indicated that catches (abundance) of anchovy in the Adriatic Sea correlate well with low temperatures, salinity fronts and sea surface height, and allowed the identification of areas where high concentrations of this species are most likely to occur. The results of this study demonstrate that GAMM are a useful tool to combine geo‐referenced catch data with oceanographic variables and that the use of a mixed‐model approach with spatial and temporal random effects is an effective way to depict the dynamics of marine species.     

我国渔业节能减排研究与发展建议

在实地采样调研和数据分析的基础上,得出我国每年海洋捕捞渔船的燃油消耗为637万t,其中拖网和刺网渔船分别占58.8%和22.2%,是渔船燃油消耗的主体;推算出每年渔船总燃油消耗为790万t,渔业生产领域总能源消耗为1 754万t标准煤,其中水产捕捞、养殖和加工所占的比重分别为66%、21%和13%,并以万元产值能耗为指标对渔业及其主要领域的能源利用水平进行比较分析。在对渔业节能减排总体水平进行全面分析的基础上,指出降低渔业能耗的主要领域是拖网渔船和刺网渔船,控制渔业排放的主要领域是池塘养殖和工厂化养殖;标准化渔船技术、玻璃钢渔船技术、循环水养殖技术等是推进渔业节能减排的主要技术支撑;参考国外渔业节能减排技术状况,提出发展目标和主要措施等方面的建议。     

Effectiveness of fish waste management strategies in reducing seabird attendance at a trawl vessel

The risk of seabird bycatch in trawl fisheries is increased by high numbers of seabirds attending vessels to feed on fish waste discharged. We conducted an experimental test of whether mincing fish waste prior to its discharge from a factory trawler reduced the number of seabirds attending the vessel. The trial was conducted on a mid-water trawler targeting hoki (Macruronus novaezelandiae) in New Zealand waters, and the experiment compared three treatments (1) discharging ‘unprocessed’ waste (fish offal and whole discards), (2) mincing all waste to a small particle size before discharge, or, (3) converting all waste to fishmeal and reducing discharge to sump water. The response to the experimental treatments was determined using seabird abundance within a 40 m-radius semi-circular area centred on the vessel stern. Mincing reduced the numbers of large albatrosses (Diomedea spp.) feeding astern of the vessel, but had no significant effect on other groups of seabirds. In contrast, reducing discharge to sump water resulted in a significant reduction in numbers of all groups of seabirds. In particular, the abundance of the small albatross group (principally Thalassarche spp.), and some smaller procellarids (e.g. sooty shearwater, Puffinus griseus, and white-chinned petrel, Procellaria aequinoctialis), was reduced to less than five percent of the number that were within the sweep area when unprocessed discharge was released. While mincing significantly reduced the abundance of large albatrosses at the vessel stern, relatively small numbers of these birds attend trawl vessels in New Zealand waters and associated bycatch rates are low. In contrast, reducing the quantity of fish waste discharge by mealing resulted in reduced abundances of a wide range of seabirds at the vessel. Therefore, compared to mincing, we recommend fish waste retention as a more effective management strategy for reducing seabird bycatch.     

Migrations and hydrography determine the abundance fluctuations of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) in the Barents Sea

The Barents Sea is the north‐eastern fringe of the distribution of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou). Fluctuations in distribution and abundance of blue whiting in the area have been marked. Two hypotheses are put forward to explain these fluctuations. First, rich year classes in the main Atlantic stock of blue whiting may contribute to increased abundance in the Barents Sea. Second, variations in hydrography, such as influx of warm Atlantic water, may be particularly important in this fringe area. We investigated these hypotheses using data from bottom trawl surveys conducted during the period 1981–2006. Variations in abundance (measured either as incidence or density) and distribution were correlated with recruitment in the Atlantic stock of blue whiting as well as hydrographic conditions. Regression analyses indicated that the abundance fluctuations are primarily determined by variations in recruitment of Atlantic blue whiting, a strong year class leading to high abundance in the Barents Sea the year after spawning. However, salinity anomaly in the Fugløya–Bear Island transect during the previous year, an indicator of high inflow of Atlantic water, had also a significant, positive effect. Thus, the data suggested a climatic modulation of dynamics that were primarily determined by recruitment of blue whiting in the main Atlantic stock. Analyses of size structure as well as earlier studies on population genetics supported this conclusion.     

CPUE standardisation and the construction of indices of stock abundance in a spatially varying fishery using general linear models

Construction of annual indices of stock abundance based on catch and effort data remains central to many fisheries’ assessments. While the use of more advanced statistical methods has helped catch rates to be standardised against many explanatory variables, the changing spatial characteristics of most fisheries data sets provide additional challenges for constructing reliable indices of stock abundance. After reviewing the use of general linear models to construct indices of annual stock abundance, potential biases which can arise due to the unequal and changing nature of the spatial distribution of fishing effort are examined and illustrated through the analysis of simulated data. Finally, some options are suggested for modelling catch rates in unfished strata and for accounting for the uncertainties in the stock and fishery dynamics which arise in the interpretation of spatially varying catch rate data.     

Examining the importance of consistency in multi-vessel trawl survey design based on the U.S. west coast groundfish bottom trawl survey

Generalized linear mixed-effects models can be used to combine bottom trawl data from multiple vessels, each with a different fishing power, into a single time series of relative abundance. However, how important might it be to have a consistent set of vessels and vessel characteristics from year to year given we can model differences in fishing power among vessels? We demonstrate how changes in the suite of fishing vessels performing the survey can affect the results of the data analysis using sablefish catches in the U.S. west coast groundfish bottom trawl survey from 1998 to 2000. The results do not indicate that one must have a consistent set of vessels over time to provide useful data, but rather that there is benefit to consistency even when the survey data are analyzed using advanced statistical models. Further research should be undertaken to quantify these benefits specifically to aid in contracting and bidding of survey vessels.     

Alternative error distribution models for standardization of catch rates of non-target species from a pelagic longline fishery: billfish species in the Venezuelan tuna longline fishery

Alternative error distributions were evaluated for calculating indices of relative abundance for non-target species using catch and effort data from commercial fisheries. A general procedure is presented for testing the underlying assumptions of different error distributions. Catch rates, from an observer program, of billfish caught mainly as bycatch in a pelagic tuna longline fishery in the Western Central Atlantic were standardized. Although catches of billfishes are not common in pelagic tuna longline fisheries, these fisheries are one of the main sources of fishing mortality for these stocks in the central Atlantic due to the magnitude and spatial extent of longline fishing effort. Billfish CPUE data are highly skewed with a large proportion of zero observations. Delta distribution models can accommodate this type of data, and involve modeling the probability of a non-zero observation and the catch rate given that the catch is non-zero separately. Three different Delta models were compared against other error distributions, including the lognormal, log-gamma, and Poisson. Diagnostic checks and deviance table analyses were performed to identify the best error distribution and the set of factors and interactions that most adequately explained the observed variability. The results indicated that the Delta-lognormal model (a binomial error distribution for the probability of a non-zero catch and lognormal error for the positive catch rates) complied best with the underlying characteristics of the data set. Analyses of catch rates for blue marlin, white marlin and sailfish confirmed the spatio-temporal nature of their distribution in the central Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Also, the analyses indicated that catch rates of billfish differed among fishing vessel types; larger vessels had a higher probability of catching blue marlin, the more oceanic-oriented species, and lower probabilities of catching the more coastal-oriented species white marlin and sailfish. Standardized catch rates indicated in general a lower relative abundance for blue and white marlin in the most recent years, although estimated confidence intervals overlap through the years especially for white marlin.     

Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a Penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.     

Integrating seabird dietary and groundfish stock assessment data: Can puffins predict pollock spawning stock biomass in the North Pacific?

Information on the annual variability in abundance and growth of juvenile groundfish can be useful for predicting fisheries stocks, but is often poorly known owing to difficulties in sampling fish in their first year of life. In the Western Gulf of Alaska (WGoA) and Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) ecosystems, three species of puffin (tufted and horned puffin, Fratercula cirrhata, Fratercula corniculata, and rhinoceros auklet, Cerorhinca monocerata, Alcidae), regularly prey upon (i.e., “sample”) age-0 groundfish, including walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogramma, Gadidae) and Pacific cod (Gadus microcephalus, Gadidae). Here, we test the hypothesis that integrating puffin dietary data with walleye pollock stock assessment data provides information useful for fisheries management, including indices of interannual variation in age-0 abundance and growth. To test this hypothesis, we conducted cross-correlation and regression analyses of puffin-based indices and spawning stock biomass (SSB) for the WGoA and EBS walleye pollock stocks. For the WGoA, SSB leads the abundance of age-0 fish in the puffin diet, indicating that puffins sample the downstream production of the WGoA spawning stock. By contrast, the abundance and growth of age-0 fish sampled by puffins lead SSB for the EBS stock by 1–3 years, indicating that the puffin diet proxies incoming year class strength for this stock. Our study indicates connectivity between the WGoA and EBS walleye pollock stocks. Integration of non-traditional data sources, such as seabird diet data, with stock assessment data appears useful to inform information gaps important for managing US fisheries in the North Pacific.     

两种底拖网渔业资源调查船捕捞效率标准化分析

渔业资源科学调查是开展渔业资源状况评价、物种保护和管理等分析的重要数据来源，当调查方式发生变化时，维持数据的时间一致性至关重要。因此，原位试验获取不同调查方式的捕捞效率校正因子（fishing power correction，FPC）成为资源状况评价的先决条件。本研究通过平行拖网对比试验分析了科学调查船“中渔科211”（试验船）和生产性渔船“浙嵊渔10201-10243”（标准船）在开展渔业资源调查时对不同种类或类群的渔获率差异。结果表明，标准船和试验船平均渔获率分别为（47.27~1836.72）kg/nmile²和（12.28~311.85）kg/nmile²。标准船主要种类为小黄鱼（），渔获率范围分别为（1.17~1113.26）kg/nmile²和（0~565.39）kg/nmile²；试验船主要种类为鳀（），渔获率范围分别为（0~277.59）kg/nmile²和（0~125.24）kg/nmile²。2种调查方式对不同种类/组的渔获率随深度变化趋势出现分化，其中总渔获率、鱼类、银鲳（Apogonichthys lineatus）、绿鳍鱼（）8个种类/组表现为相似的变化趋势；甲壳类、细点圆趾蟹（Erisphex pottii）5个种类/组变化趋势相反；头足类、小黄鱼、龙头鱼在各深度变化具有异质性特征。这种变化与网口垂直扩张和所在水层位置有关。均值比和Kappenman方法估计的总渔获率FPC分别为0.35（95%置信区间为0.24~0.61）和0.43（95%置信区间为0.27~0.70），各种类渔获率均值比结果显示，FPC变化范围在0.03~2.61，其中总渔获率、鱼类、头足类、小黄鱼和绿鳍鱼达到显著水平，建议对上述种类的资源丰度指标年际变化趋势分析时进行数据校正。标准船以近底层种类为调查对象，尤其在捕获经济种类方面表现出优良性能，但对完整生态系统代表性较弱。试验船适合浅水区调查，在深水区由于网口垂直扩张不足，且网位存在上浮现象，难以反映近底层生态系统。     

应用分层抽样技术估计北部湾底拖网渔业产量

传统的按行政单元逐级上报的渔业产量调查方法在数据获取过程中受人为因素的干扰,而全面普查的方法受限于时间和经费,相比而言,抽样调查是一种科学合理的方法。本研究于2007年8月对北部湾底拖网产量进行了调查,以全体底拖网渔船为抽样总体,按功率段划分了抽样层次,按比例分配了抽样单元数,分别以生产渔船总数和总功率数推算总产量,并比较了这两种方法的方差。结果表明,用每kW平均产量估计总产量的变异系数为1.13%,用单船平均产量估计总产量的变异系数为14.65%。同时由于渔业抽样调查的难点在于总体船数的掌握,建议统计推断时,采用单位渔捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）推算总体渔获量。     

A new spatial framework incorporating uncertain stock and fleet dynamics for estimating fish abundance

Relative abundance indices based on catch and effort data can become biased unless consideration is given to the spatial dynamics of the fishery such as changes in either the spatial distribution of fishing effort or the range of the stock over time. The construction of such indices therefore needs to take into account features of the fishery itself. In this paper, a general framework is presented for developing more appropriate abundance indices based on fishery catch and effort data. In developing this framework, it adopts the approach of (i) developing a range of hypotheses which encompass the uncertainties in the spatial–temporal dynamics of the stock and the fishing effort, (ii) identifying the hypotheses underlying the different CPUE series, and (iii) evaluating the available information relative to these hypotheses as the basis for evaluating CPUE indices. Observations from the fishery for southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) are used to illustrate various hypotheses about the nature of the fishery which can be used to construct indices of stock abundance while a simple simulation framework is used to explore the implications of some of these hypotheses on the accuracy of such indices.     

Effects of climate on temporal variation in the abundance and distribution of the demersal fish assemblage in the Tsushima Warm Current region of the Japan Sea

In the present study, we examined the effects of climate on temporal variation in the abundance and geographical distribution of demersal fishes at both interannual and decadal scales in the Tsushima Warm Current region of the Japan Sea using single‐trawler fishery data (1972–2002). This single‐trawler fishery targeted multiple species with different geographical affinities and life history traits. Thus, these data were suitable for examining the biological mechanisms that underlie how species respond to climate variability. Our results indicate that the distributional changes of species in response to decadal climate variability are best explained by asymptotic length, which indicates that warming has greater negative effects on larger fishes in the Japan Sea. However, none of the variables examined (including geographical affinity, asymptotic length and age at maturation) could explain the shift in abundance at interannual or decadal scales. It should be noted that life history traits and geographical affinities only provide partial explanations of the responses of species to environmental variability, thereby suggesting that other factors, such as interactions among species, may be involved in mediating species responses.     

基于资源-经济模型的莱州湾中国对虾增殖放流管理

利用2011年莱州湾中国对虾放流回捕生产调查统计和生物学测定数据,构建了包括资源模块、经济模块、决策模块的资源-经济模型,模拟了不同管理决策对放流经济效果的影响.结果表明,放流规模和捕捞强度不变时延迟开捕,总成本降低,渔民捕捞收益和社会经济效益先增加后减少,存在一个使放流经济效益达到最大值的最佳开捕日期：例如,当放流规模为738亿尾、捕捞死亡系数为0.03时,10月8日开捕可以获得最大的社会经济效益19.30万元;放流规模和开捕日期不变时扩大捕捞力量,总成本增加,同样存在一个最优捕捞规模使放流经济效益达到最大,但并非捕捞规模越大获得的经济收益越大;开捕日期和捕捞规模不变时,社会经济效益与放流规模成正比.在放流实践中,管理者应合理设置放流数量、捕捞规模和开捕日期,通过科学管控争取达到最佳的放流效果.     

广西北海市拖网作业捕捞能力的因子分析

利用北部湾渔船调查数据,运用R型因子分析方法对广西北海拖网渔船的11个基本指标进行了因子分析。通过简化观测系统,减少变量个数,揭示拖网渔船的捕捞能力与渔船基本因子之间的联系。将影响拖网捕捞能力的众多因素归并为渔船作业能力、综合捕捞技术、渔船老化程度、出航率4个公共因子。分析结果显示,这些因子对拖网作业渔船捕捞作业能力总影响力达84.7%,它们在拖网捕捞作业过程中所发挥的作用由大到小依次为:渔船作业能力(36.740%)、综合捕捞技术(24.388%)、渔船老化程度(15.772%)、出航率(8.014%)。评价出每艘渔船在4个公共因子上的优缺点,并探索渔获量与因子综合得分的关系,为渔业管理部门细化拖网渔船的管理提供参考。     

Are stock assessment methods too complicated?

This critical review argues that several methods for the estimation and prediction of numbers‐at‐age, fishing mortality coefficients F, and recruitment for a stock of fish are too hard to explain to customers (the fishing industry, managers, etc.) and do not pay enough attention to weaknesses in the supporting data, assumptions and theory. The review is linked to North Sea demersal stocks. First, weaknesses in the various types of data used in North Sea assessments are summarized, i.e. total landings, discards, commercial and research vessel abundance indices, age‐length keys and natural mortality (M). A list of features that an ideal assessment should have is put forward as a basis for comparing different methods. The importance of independence and weighting when combining different types of data in an assessment is stressed. Assessment methods considered are Virtual Population Analysis, ad hoc tuning, extended survivors analysis (XSA), year‐class curves, catch‐at‐age modelling, and state‐space models fitted by Kalman filter or Bayesian methods. Year‐class curves (not to be confused with ‘catch‐curves’) are the favoured method because of their applicability to data sets separately, their visual appeal, simple statistical basis, minimal assumptions, the availability of confidence limits, and the ease with which estimates can be combined from different data sets after separate analyses. They do not estimate absolute stock numbers or F but neither do other methods unless M is accurately known, as is seldom true.     

基于渔船捕捞行为特征的远洋延绳钓渔场捕捞强度计算

渔场捕捞强度信息可以为渔业资源评估和管理提供帮助。本研究结合2017年10—11月船舶自动监控系统(AutomaticIdentificationSystem,AIS)信息和同期中国中西太平洋延绳钓渔船捕捞日志数据,通过挖掘延绳钓渔船作业航速和航向特征,建立渔场作业状态识别模型,提取渔场捕捞强度信息。以3～9节为航速阈值和0°～10°及300°～360°为航向阈值,渔船作业状态识别准确率为68.29%。阈值识别和日志记录的捕捞强度信息在空间上相关性很高(0.96),基于AIS信息挖掘的渔船捕捞强度空间分布特征和实际非常相似。阈值识别和日志记录的捕捞强度信息在空间上与单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unite of effort, CPUE)、渔获尾数、渔获重量和投钩数的空间相关系数均大于0.62,基于AIS信息挖掘的渔船空间捕捞强度也可替代用于渔业资源分析。     

Reliability of stock size estimates from adaptive framework virtual population analysis

ABSTRACT:   The stock size estimates from adaptive framework virtual population analysis are sometimes very sensitive to the model's assumptions. The uniqueness and precision of stock size estimates from adaptive framework virtual population analysis are examined analytically and numerically. The results indicate that (i) when the fishing mortalities remain constant for all years, the stock size estimates are not determined uniquely without additional assumptions, and (ii) when the cumulative fishing mortalities are similar among cohorts, the precision of stock size estimates will be poor, even if the abundance indices are precise and informative. For the precise estimation of stock size, it is necessary that fishing mortalities vary among years, that cumulative fishing mortalities vary among cohorts and that auxiliary information such as selectivity is available in addition to precise abundance indices.     

闽南、台湾浅滩渔场单拖作业渔获物组成分析

根据2000~2001年单拖作业渔获物调查资料,着重对渔获物种类组成、个体大小进行分析。结果表明:闽南、台湾浅滩渔场单拖网作业渔获物品种繁多、个体小,优势种数量多、比重小,占周年总渔获量1%以上的品种有19种,鱼类、甲壳类、头足类渔获个体平均体重仅为11.4g/ind,周年中,5~6月个体最小,建议将该渔场单拖作业伏季休渔时间调整为5月1日至7月15日。