The implications of current and future urbanization for global protected areas and biodiversity conservation

Due to human population growth and migration, there will be nearly 2 billion new urban residents by 2030, yet the consequences of both current and future urbanization for biodiversity conservation are poorly known. Here we show that urban growth will have impacts on ecoregions, rare species, and protected areas that are localized but cumulatively significant. Currently, 29 of the world’s 825 ecoregions have over one-third of their area urbanized, and these 29 ecoregions are the only home of 213 endemic terrestrial vertebrate species. Our analyses suggest that 8% of terrestrial vertebrate species on the IUCN Red List are imperiled largely because of urban development. By 2030, 15 additional ecoregions are expected to lose more than 5% of their remaining undeveloped area, and they contain 118 vertebrate species found nowhere else. Of the 779 rare species with only one known population globally, 24 are expected to be impacted by urban growth. In addition, the distance between protected areas and cities is predicted to shrink dramatically in some regions: for example, the median distance from a protected area to a city in Eastern Asia is predicted to fall from 43 km to 23 km by 2030. Most protected areas likely to be impacted by new urban growth (88%) are in countries of low to moderate income, potentially limiting institutional capacity to adapt to new anthropogenic stresses on protected areas. In short, trends in global ecoregions, rare species, and protected areas suggest localized but significant biodiversity degradation associated with current and upcoming urbanization.     

Wolves in the Casentinesi Forests: insights for wolf conservation in Italy from a protected area with a rich wild prey community

The Casentinesi Forests, in the northern Apennines, harbour a rich community of wild ungulates, with the wolf representing the largest predator in the area. Between 1993 and 2000, wolf pack distribution in the area was monitored and estimates of pack size were obtained by wolf-howling surveys, snow-tracking, and occasional observations. Three to five packs were detected yearly, with sizes averaging 4.2 ± 0.9 wolves (maximum 7). The overall density in the area was 4.7 wolves per 100 km² with an average distance between adjacent packs of 11.1 km. The high wolf density in the Casentinesi Forests is mostly related to abundance and size of wild prey. In this, like in other areas at low latitudes, wolf density depends mainly on the number of packs, as pack size is rather small and recruitment limited by early dispersal and high mortality. Three homesites used in several years by resident packs were discovered. Homesite fidelity and pack reproductive success were higher in fully protected rather than harvested areas. Establishing a network of protected areas with high ungulate diversity and abundance is proposed as the main factor for allowing a full recovery of the wolf population in Italy.     

Will climate change reduce the efficacy of protected areas for amphibian conservation in Italy?

Amphibians are an important and imperiled component of biodiversity. In this study we analyze the efficacy of Italian reserve network for protecting multiple amphibian species in a climate change scenario, considering both nationally designated areas and Natura 2000 sites. Our approach is based on ensemble niche modeling estimate of potential range shift under two carbon emission scenarios (A1FI and B1) and two dispersal assumptions. The predicted distributions were used to perform gap and irreplaceability analyses. Our findings show that the current Italian reserve network incompletely represents current amphibian diversity and its geographic pattern. The combination of the nationally designated protected areas and the Natura 2000 sites improves current representation of amphibians, but conservation targets based on geographic range extent are achieved for only 40% of species. Under the future scenarios, Natura 2000 sites become a crucial component of the protected areas system. Nonetheless, we predict that climate change decreases for many species the amount of suitable range falling into reserves, regardless of our assumptions about dispersal. We identify some currently unprotected areas that have high irreplaceability scores for species conservation and that maintain their importance under all the future scenarios we considered. We recommend designation of new reserves in these areas to help guarantee long-term amphibian conservation.     

Using landscape suitability models to reconcile conservation planning for two key forest predators

Protection of area-limited species is an important component of plans to conserve biodiversity, but the habitat needs of such species can be different and important habitats may not align with existing reserves. We used empirically derived landscape suitability models for the spotted owl and the fisher to evaluate the overlap in habitat suitability for these two old forest-associated predators in an area of northern California affected by the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP), a bioregional conservation plan. The area includes designated Wilderness areas and new reserves (Late-Successional Reserves, LSRs) established under the NWFP. We used the site selection algorithm MARXAN to identify priority habitat areas for each species, and for both combined, and to compare these areas with reserves. Sites were selected under two constraints, to achieve a threshold proportion of total habitat value and to select new areas equal to the total current area in existing reserves. The rank correlation between predicted value for the two species was low (0.11), because areas of highest predicted habitat value were more widely distributed for the owl. This difference also meant that the sites selected to optimize habitat value were more aggregated for fishers than owls, resulting in greater overlap of owl habitat and current reserves. To capture 25%, 50% and 75% of total habitat value for the owl required 14.0%, 29.2%, and 47.3% of the planning units, respectively; capturing the same for the fisher required only 5.3%, 13.5%, and 27.2%. A combined owl-fisher scenario resulted in areas that overlapped only ∼50% of existing reserves. The current location of LSRs may not be the best solution to maintaining well-connected habitats for these area-limited species in northwestern California. Whether LSRs are a better solution to protecting the diversity of other lesser-known taxa (i.e., salamanders and mollusks) is the subject of related work.     

Relationship between distributions of threatened plants and protected areas in Britain

The establishment and maintenance of a system of protected areas is central to regional and global strategies for the conservation of biodiversity. The current global trend towards human population growth and widespread environmental degradation means that such areas are becoming increasingly isolated in fragmented habitat islands. In regions in which this process is well advanced a high proportion of species are thus predicted to have become restricted to protected areas. Here using uniquely detailed datasets for Britain, a region with close to the global level of percentage coverage by statutory protected areas, we determine the extent of restriction of Red List vascular plant species of conservation concern to these areas. On the basis of currently known distributions, overall our results strongly support the importance of a dual conservation strategy in Britain, in which protected areas are maintained with particular reference to those biodiversity features (such as many threatened plant species) that are highly dependent on them, and in which components of the wider landscape are also managed in such a way as to promote the abundance and distribution of such features with particular reference to those which are unlikely to persist in protected areas alone.     

Use of GIS for Optimizing a Collecting Mission for a Rare Wild Pepper (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Capsicum flexuosum</Emphasis> Sendtn.) in Paraguay

This paper presents an effective method for prioritizing areas within a country for acquisition of germplasm of a crop gene pool for ex situ conservation. The method was applied to the rare wild pepper species, Capsicum flexuosum Sendtn., in south-east Paraguay. A model to prioritize areas for collecting germplasm was constructed by combining (1) a prediction of the species' geographic distribution based on the climate at previous collection points, (2) the distribution of forest margins (the species' natural habitat) and (3) areas accessible by road. The model was then tested in the field by visiting 20 sites having both high and low predicted probability of occurrence of C. flexuosum. Six new populations were found, representing a significant improvement over two previous collecting missions for the species in the same region, undertaken without the use of GIS targeting. Using the most optimistic analysis of model performance, C. flexuosum was found at five out of seven points predicted to harbour the species and not found at four of five points predicted not to harbour the species. The model was then improved by the use of higher resolution climate surfaces. It is recommended that future explorers use more recent and higher resolution satellite images to locate suitable habitats. The method is replicable for different species in different geographic regions and is offered as a means of optimizing efficiency in financially constrained, national plant genetic resources programs.     

Protected areas do not fulfil the wintering habitat needs of the trans-Saharan migratory Montagu’s harrier

Populations of migratory birds can be affected by events happening at both breeding and wintering grounds. The Sahel is a vast region holding a large number of wintering trans-Saharan migratory European birds, and current land-use changes there may represent a threat for these species. We used satellite tracking data from the migratory Montagu’s harrier to evaluate habitat use of the species during the wintering season, and whether the current network of protected areas is effective to provide their habitat needs during that season. We also developed an ecological niche model for the species in Western-Central Sahel to check if the most suitable sites are included within current protected areas. Tracked harriers occupied a large region encompassing a total of eight countries. The most preferred habitats during winter were croplands and some natural vegetation habitats, especially grasslands. Protected areas only covered a small proportion of the overall wintering grounds of tracked harriers and the most suitable areas for the species in Western-Central Sahel. Increasing the extent of preferred natural habitats within protected areas should benefit the conservation of this and probably other insect-eating raptors. However, substantial increases in extent and number of protected areas in sub-Saharan Africa are very unlike to occur. Conservation actions in the region should therefore be mostly focused on improving land use planning and management outside protected areas, specially enhancing agricultural practices to make biodiversity conservation compatible with poverty alleviation. These can be chiefly targeted at an area of <20,000 km² of very suitable habitat for these species.     

How does human exploitation affect impala populations in protected and partially protected areas? - A case study from the Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania

Human exploitation can have severe conservation implications for wildlife populations. In the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania, illegal hunting is a serious concern for wildlife management, and in this study we investigated if density, demography and behaviour can be used as indicators of human exploitation. We used impala (Aepycerus melampus) as a model species to study human exploitation inside and outside a strictly protected area. Over a six month period, a total of 2050 km of transects were driven in the different protected areas (National Park, Game Reserve, Open Area). Densities were estimated by using distance sampling and the partially protected areas were found to have significantly lower densities (4.3 ind/km²) than the National Park (15.3 ind/km²). A variation in density between different sections within the National Park was also found. However, we found no differences in group sizes. Moreover, the sex-ratio was more skewed towards females in the partially protected areas and in sections within the National Park close to villages. In addition, impalas showed higher alertness levels, and longer flight initiation distance to an approaching human in the partially protected areas compared to the National Park. The present harvest levels by illegal hunting in the study area are most likely the cause of the observed differences. Our results suggest that density, demography and behaviour can be used as indicators of human exploitation, but that this probably varies according to local hunting pressure. Furthermore, it could be expected that the results obtained in this study might reflect the state of other ungulates in the area, which raises concern whether management objectives for the buffer zones of Serengeti National Park are met.     

Factors and scales potentially important for saproxylic beetles in temperate mixed oak forest

The influence of environmental factors on species richness and species composition may be manifested at different spatial levels. Exploring these relationships is important to understand at which spatial scales certain species and organism groups become sensitive to fragmentation and changes in habitat quality. At different spatial scales we evaluated the potential influence of 45 factors (multiple regression, PCA) on saproxylic oak beetles in 21 smaller broadleaved Swedish forests of conservation importance (woodland key habitats, WKH). Local amount of dead wood in forests is often assumed to be important, but two landscape variables, area of oak dominated woodland key habitats within 1 km of sites and regional amount of dead oak wood, were the main (and strong) predictors of variation in local species richness of oak beetles. The result was similar for red-listed beetles associated with oak. Species composition of the beetles was also best predicted by area of oak woodland key habitat within 1 km, with canopy closure as the second predictor. Despite suitable local quality of the woodland key habitats, the density of such habitat patches may in many areas be too low for long-term protection of saproxylic beetles associated with broadleaved temperate forests. Landscapes with many clustered woodland key habitats rich in oak should have high priority for conservation of saproxylic oak beetles.     

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species’ sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species.     

Applying species distribution modelling for the conservation of the threatened saproxylic Stag Beetle (Lucanus cervus)

Despite its size and attractiveness, many Lucanus cervus sites remain undetected in NW Europe because of its short flight period and its nocturnal activity. Therefore, present-day designated conservation areas for L. cervus are probably insufficient for a sustainable conservation of the species. We applied eight species distribution modelling techniques (artificial neural networks, classification tree analysis, generalised additive models, generalised boosting models, generalised linear models, mixture discriminant analysis, multiple adaptive regression splines and random forests) to predict the distribution of L cervus in Belgium using 10 randomly generated calibration and evaluation sets. We used AUC, sensitivity (% correctly predicted presences in the evaluation set) and specificity (% correctly predicted absences in the evaluation set) and Kappa statistics to compare model performances. To avoid the incorporation of only marginally suitable woodland sites into the Natura 2000 network, we, conservatively, considered the species as being present only in grid cells where all 10 randomly generated model sets predicted the species as such. Model performance was, on average, good allowing to predict the potential distribution of L. cervus accurately. According to the predicted distribution using the more robust prevalence threshold, only 5731 ha (11% of the potentially suitable area) is protected under the Natura 2000 scheme in Belgium. Subsequently, we categorised the potentially suitable woodlands into three conservation priority categories based on their surface area and the already designated Natura 2000 area. Including the most suitable L. cervus woodlands previously not included in the Natura 2000 sites within such network would require protecting an area of 15,260 ha. Finally, we discuss the implications of using species distribution modelling for nature policy decisions in designating conservation networks.     

The evaluation of key sites for breeding waders in lowland Scotland

This study considers the selection of sites based on the densities of breeding waders that would be considered to be distributed widely across common habitats in Scotland: so-called ‘wider countryside’ species. Five methods to provide a hierarchical classification of sites are assessed. Fifty percent of the populations of redshank (Tringa totanus) and snipe (Gallinago gallinago) occur on just 2 and 4.5% of Scottish lowlands, respectively, yet neither are suitably protected by conservation measures and both would benefit from a carefully targeted approach to their conservation. Three species, lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), curlew (Numenius arquata) and oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) are more appropriately considered to be dispersed species. We propose that, if the density of a breeding wader on a site exceeds the threshold level predicted for the top 1% of Scottish lowland for that species, and if the area of the site exceeds 1 km² then that site be considered to be a key site for farmland waders. The minimum density (in pairs km⁻²) must exceed 16.8 for lapwing, 10.1 for oystercatcher, 6.1 for snipe, 7.5 for curlew or 3.6 for redshank.     

Misleading results from conventional gap analysis – Messages from the warming north

Gap analysis is a widely used method for assessing the representation of species in protected area (PA) networks. However, representation does not imply persistence. Here, we investigated whether gap analysis may result in misleading conservation guidelines by comparing the representation to two indicators of persistence. We ran a gap analysis with Finnish breeding birds and identified conservation priorities based on current distribution patterns. We tested the sensitivity of these results by using two target setting schemes and several thresholds defining the amount of protected area, and found the levels of representation identified by gap analysis to be robust. We then compared the gap analysis results with recent population trends and projected changes in potential suitable climate under different climate change scenarios for the year 2050. We show that although high latitude species are well represented in PAs, they are currently declining and are projected to lose climatic suitability in the near future. In contrast, low latitude species with poor representation in PAs have increasing population trends and are generally expected to expand their ranges into protected areas in the near future. This study demonstrates with empirical data a mismatch between representation in PAs and population trends, resulting in misleading understanding of current PA effectiveness. The mismatch is linked to the latitude of species distributions and corresponds to expected future changes, indicating that the patterns are potentially driven by climate change. We therefore urge practitioners and researchers to include better indicators of persistence in gap-analysis frameworks even for short term assessments.     

Using ecological niche modelling to identify diversity hotspots for the herpetofauna of Pacific lowlands and adjacent interior valleys of Mexico

This article documents the conservation status of the herpetofauna in the Pacific lowlands and adjacent Balsas Basin and Chiapas Depression regions and the presents the results of modelling species spatial distributional patterns through GARP analysis, to identify hotspots of species richness, endemic and geographically restricted species in the study area. It also compares the distribution of these hotspots with the distribution of protected areas and intact seasonally tropical dry tropical forests, the dominant vegetation type in the study area and experiencing high deforestation rates. A total of 301 reptiles and amphibian species occur in the study area accounting for a third of the Mexican herpetofauna, and recording high levels of endemism and endangerment. Hotspots of species richness and endemism were located in coastal Jalisco, a considerable portion of the Colima state, as well as scattered areas in Michoacán, Guerrero, and Oaxaca. These areas should receive highest priority for protection. Unfortunately, there was a minimum correspondence when comparing the distribution of actually and proposed protected areas with hotspots identified. Fortunately, areas of high species richness, endemism and restricted species coincided with those where intact seasonally tropical dry tropical forests still exists. These areas should receive high priority in future plans for seasonally tropical dry tropical forests protected areas. It is hoped that this paper will call attention to the need for establishing a network of protected areas in the study area, as has been proposed by previous studies.     

Building large-scale spatially explicit models to predict the distribution of suitable habitat patches for the Greater rhea (Rhea americana), a near-threatened species

We developed large-scale spatially explicit models to predict the distribution of suitable habitat patches for the Greater rhea (Rhea americana), a near-threatened species, in two areas of central Argentina with different land use: a grassland area (ca. 4943 km²) mainly devoted to cattle grazing and an agro-ecosystem area (ca. 4006 km²) mostly used for crop production. The models were developed using logistic regression and were based on current records of Greater rhea occurrence coupled with remote sensing data, including land cover and human presence variables. The habitat suitability maps generated were used to predict the suitable habitat patch structure for wild rhea populations in each area. Fifty-one percent of the total grassland area was suitable for the species, being represented by a single large patch that included 62% of the individual locations. In the agro-ecosystem, only 28% of the total area was suitable, which was distributed among four patches. Seventy percent of rhea observations were in suitable habitat, with all rheas grouped in the largest patch. Conservation efforts for preserving wild rhea populations should be focused on maintaining habitats similar to grasslands, which are less profitable for landowners at present. Consequently, the protection of the pampas grasslands, a key habitat for this species as well as for others with similar habitat requirements, will demand strong conservation actions through the reconciliation of interests between producers and conservationists, since the proportion of croplands is increasing.     

Habitat suitability, threats and conservation of isolated populations of the smooth snake (Coronella austriaca) in the southern Iberian Peninsula

During the Pleistocene, climatic fluctuations due to glacial and interglacial periods greatly modified the distribution of boreal organisms. One direct effect of these distribution shifts is that, along the southern edge of the range of some boreal species, populations persist only in isolated patches of suitable habitats, surrounded by less suitable areas. Isolated populations in marginal habitat are vulnerable to several threats, including climate change, anthropogenic threats, and stochastic events. We developed habitat-suitability models using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis for populations of the smooth snake, Coronella austriaca, at the southernmost limit of the species range. These models were based on historical and current records of occurrence, coupled with remote sensing data including elevation, slope, and climatic variables. Our results indicated that C. austriaca in the Iberian Peninsula occurred in areas associated with high slope and precipitation, low temperatures, and low variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation compared to areas of non-occurrence. At a broad scale, the areas classified as highly suitable for the species in the southern Iberian Peninsula were small and fragmented. At a local scale, extensive field work demonstrated that C. austriaca occurs in low densities in these areas. In addition, we detected several human-induced threats like habitat loss, favoured by temperature increase and rainfall reduction. Several life-history traits, such as dietary specialization and low frequency reproduction, also may contribute to the vulnerability of these populations to local extinctions. Although the most suitable southernmost areas are included in protected reserves, specific guidelines for management are needed to assess conservation needs.     

Finding a needle in the haystack: Regional analysis of suitable Eld’s deer (Cervus eldi) forest in Southeast Asia

For species whose decline preceded the modern era and whose distribution is in the developing world, it is difficult to map suitable habitat across its former range. Eld’s deer (Cervus eldi) is an endangered cervid whose range across Southeast Asia was reduced during the last century to disjoint populations in Myanmar and Cambodia. We used ecological data from the present populations to determine landscape and habitat parameters that would help us predict the occurrence of the species in forests not yet surveyed. The suitable-forest GIS model was created using four readily available datasets for elevation, forest type, canopy closure, and human density. Comparison of the GIS model with 24 verified sightings of Eld’s deer during recent large mammal surveys in Cambodia, found 22 sightings (92%) within predicted suitable forest. Use the suitable-forest GIS model to survey a province in southern Lao People’s Democratic Republic, located a single, previously unreported population from 9 patches surveyed. In a separate analysis, a logistic regression model to predict Eld’s deer habitat in Northern Cambodia found percent tree cover, presence of wetlands, and distance to villages as the best predictors of deer, similar to variables used in the GIS model, with the exception of the importance of wetlands. Using mean annual rainfall to rank suitable-forest patches identified in the GIS model indicated dry dipterocarp forests in Northeastern Cambodia and Northern Myanmar have the highest potential to conserve eld’s deer. Examination of the suitable-forest GIS map and current protected areas indicated only Cambodia, with 11% suitable forest protected, has placed sufficient dry dipterocarp forest under protected status. Other Southeast Asia countries have not recognized dry dipterocarp forest as a significant ecotype worthy of conservation status.     

Gaps in the protected area network for threatened Afrotropical birds

Protected areas established for wildlife conservation (IUCN category I-VI protected areas) or for forest and watershed conservation (forest reserves) across mainland sub-Saharan Africa have high biodiversity values. However, they fail to cover over half of the 106 threatened bird species, and thus leave these vulnerable to extinction. An analysis of Red List bird species that are not represented in existing reserves indicates gaps in the current network of protected areas, namely: Mt. Cameroon-Bamenda highlands (Cameroon), the Angolan scarp (Angola), the Drakensberg Highlands (South Africa), the Highveld (South Africa), the Eastern Arc Mountains (Tanzania), the eastern African coastal forest mosaic (Kenya and Tanzania), the Albertine Rift (Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and western Tanzania), and the Ethiopian Highlands. The addition of Forest Reserves to the existing protected areas closes some of the reservation gaps for threatened birds in Africa. We suggest that these Forest Reserves should be included within official lists of protected areas, and that National forestry authorities be encouraged to manage these areas. Publication of scientific articles showing the conservation value of Forest Reserves is needed to raise local and international support and funding.     

Geographic information system (GIS) predictions of past, present habitat distribution and areas for re-introduction of the endangered subtropical rainforest shrub Triunia robusta (Proteaceae) from south-east Queensland Australia

The endangered Australian subtropical rainforest understorey shrub Triunia robusta, is restricted to the south-east Queensland region of Australia. The potential pre-clearing and current distribution of the species was modelled by relating species presence at recorded locations to correlated abiotic and biotic factors, which in combination, were then used as a surrogate for predicting distribution of the species habitat over its known range. From a defined study area of 330,000 ha, output of geographic areas likely to contain T. robusta habitat at three levels of probability were generated for pre-clearing vegetation, and vegetation classified as remnant in 1999. Potential pre-clearing distribution was compared with potential current distribution to ascertain the likely impact of clearing of native vegetation on the extent, pattern, and contiguity of T. robusta habitat. For pre-clearing vegetation, a total area of 45,480 ha was identified as potential T. robusta habitat. For vegetation classified as 1999 remnant, 13,440 ha were identified, representing an overall reduction of 70% in potential habitat for T. robusta. The model was partially validated, with T. robusta found at six new locations. Allowing for errors from spatial mismatching, five of the sites were located within habitat patches predicted by the model. A number of local areas containing high densities of predicted habitat patches were identified to guide searches for unrecorded populations. Strategically located areas linking known populations containing suitable or potentially suitable habitat that may be available for introduction of new populations were identified. The results indicate that the species former centre of range was in lowland areas adjacent to the north arm of the Maroochy River. Clearing and fragmentation of T. robusta habitat is the most likely cause of the apparent decline in distribution and abundance of the species.