1990-2019年中亚五国干旱状况时空变化特征及大气涛动驱动分析

咸海的迅速萎缩导致中亚五国的干旱问题引起了科学界的特别关注。为厘清中亚五国近30年来水分条件状况,探究影响其变化的气候驱动要素,本文使用帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI)对1990—2019年中亚五国干旱时空变化特征进行评估,并结合交叉小波变换揭示了大气涛动对其干旱状况的驱动影响。结果表明:中亚五国的干旱指数呈现周期性交替变化,年际变化率增大;夏秋旱、冬春湿的季节性干旱特征减弱,不同时间段的PDSI变异程度加剧,并表现出2018年后进入新一轮干期的可能。干旱程度总体呈现自西南向东北逐渐减轻、自东南山区向中西部平原逐步加重的格局;1990—2019年干旱重心由西南内陆腹地向哈萨克斯坦中西部地区转移,帕米尔和西天山山脉干旱程度呈波动上升态势。青藏高原指数(TPI)对PDSI变化表现出明显的驱动作用,在1990—2019年整个时间序列上均有较高的周期性强度,拥有1～3年(1995—2000年)、4～5年(2010—2015年)和8～10年(2015—2019年)3个明显年际尺度的震荡周期。总之, 1990—2019年中亚五国整体干旱状况趋好,干旱变异程度加剧,干旱空间分异明显, TPI在年际尺度上是驱动PDSI变化的大气涛动要素。     

Diversification of rural livelihood strategies and its effect on local landscape restoration in the semiarid hilly area of the Loess Plateau,China

This study is about the diversification of livelihood strategies and the interaction of farmers' livelihood with landscape change in Zhongzhuang small watershed, Pengyang County in Ningxia Autonomous region located in the Loess Plateau, western China. Farmers' livelihoods and landscape patterns during 1978–2007 in Zhongzhuang were analysed. In different stages, diverse limiting factors were discovered behind the diversification process of livelihood strategies. Before 1978, ‘planned economy’, ‘production team organization’, strict ‘household registration system’ and the scarcity of livelihood assets were the main factors restricting the diversification of livelihood strategies. From 1978 to 1993, the reform and open policy provided opportunities for local people to diversify their livelihood strategies, but livelihood strategies based on crop production still took an important role in their life. From 2000 to 2007, national policies brought assistance to help local farmers diversify their agricultural activities. However, the insufficient and incomplete credit and insurance market and lack of skill were the main factors constraining non‐farm activity diversification. Meanwhile, through analysis of the links between livelihood strategies diversification and landscape pattern change, we found that diversification of farmers' livelihoods contributed to the recovery of the landscape. Finally, using this relationship, steps for future landscape restoration is proposed, which provide a new view of landscape restoration research in the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1901-2017年黄土高原地区气候干旱的时空变化

[目的] 分析1901-2017年和1981-2010年两个时间尺度黄土高原地区气候干旱的趋势变化和发生频率，为该区气候干旱应对策略的制定提供科学依据。[方法] 基于高空间分辨率长时间序列的气候数据，计算了黄土高原地区1901-2017年的标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），依次分析了该区气候干旱的趋势变化和发生频率。[结果] 1901-2017年，整个黄土高原的气候经历了"湿润-干旱-湿润-干旱"的交替过程，年SPEI变化趋势未达到显著性水平，且无显著突变年份。1981-2010年干旱呈显著加剧趋势的区域分布在黄土高原腹地以及中西部，面积比例为3.43%。1901-2017年干旱呈显著减轻趋势的区域主要分布在东、西部边缘区域，面积比例为1.05%；呈显著加剧趋势的区域分布在西北部，面积比例为4.16%。近30 a，黄土高原中部轻旱、重旱发生频率较高。在历史时期的两个时间段内，黄土高原西北部大部分地区重旱发生频率较低，未有极端干旱发生。[结论] 在黄土高原地区，随着干旱程度的不断加重，干旱频率的空间变异程度逐渐降低；不同等级干旱发生频率具有明显的空间变化特征。     

基于MODIS数据的中亚地区旱情监测及影响因素分析

在全球变暖的背景下，及时准确地进行干旱监测对保障区域生态安全、对"新丝绸之路经济带"沿线各国的经济发展以及农业生产具有重要的指导意义。近年来，世界各地自然灾害频繁发生，中亚地区的干旱问题已成为全球生态环境变化中最显著的问题之一，阻碍了中亚及周边国家社会经济的长期、稳定发展。该研究基于2001-2020年的MODIS地表温度（Land Surface Temperature，LST）和归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index，NDVI）数据建立了温度植被干旱指数（Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index，TVDI）模型，利用趋势分析、MK趋势检验、地理探测器等方法揭示了中亚地区近20 a的干旱时空变化及特征、干旱演变规律并探讨了不同因素（气温、年均降雨量、土地利用类型、人口密度、高程、坡度、坡向）对TVDI的影响。结果表明：1）中亚干旱区TVDI空间分布具有明显的区域特征，呈现出自西南向东北递减趋势，其中66%面积呈干旱显著加剧趋势（P<0.05），34%的面积呈干旱显著减弱趋势（P<0.05），呈现"北部变干、南部变湿"空间变化趋势。其中，哈萨克斯坦的西北部一带旱情加剧显著；2）从旱情年际变化趋势可知，近20 a中亚地区生长季干旱程度略呈加剧趋势，2012年为干旱最严重的年份。TVDI空间分布差异显著，整体呈季节性变化，其干旱等级表现为：夏季>春季>秋季；3）单因子探测结果显示，气温和高程是驱动研究区干旱化形成的主要影响因素，多因子交互作用下，气温和高程、气温和坡度、气温和土地利用、气温与降雨量这4对组合贡献最大。随着全球气候变化、人类活动（植被破环、城市化建设、开垦耕地、过度放牧、工业污染等）持续加剧，近20 a来中亚地区气温逐渐上升，降雨量的减少，导致植被退化，进而导致生态环境恶化、干旱化趋势加剧。该研究可为当地政府及相关部门的旱灾防控提供参考和提升中国应对中亚生态风险及地缘安全影响的能力具有重要意义。     

中国黄土高原地区典型旱涝年降水特征

利用黄土高原40 a降水资料,采用EOF、小波分析和计算分维数等方法,确定典型旱涝年份,分析典型旱涝年降水量和频次变化特征。结果表明,黄土高原涝年降雨量自西向东递增,旱年由北向南递增;年降水频次时间分布的分维数涝年大于旱年,涝年降水间隔变化复杂程度超过旱年;旱涝年降水频次变化的周期谱存在较明显差异,涝年周期复杂,以短周期为主要特点,旱年长周期突出;大地形在涝年对降水的再分配能力远大于旱年;旱涝年降水频次的差异上大雨以上降水更为明显。     

The significance of drilling date and crop cover with reference to soil erosion by water,with implications for mitigating erosion on agricultural land in South East England

Early drilling of autumn‐planted cereals is strongly advised in UK government publications targeted at farmers, in part as a measure to combat soil erosion by water. However, in years when rainfall is heavy in early autumn, this strategy is ineffective. Late drilling of autumn‐planted cereals also increases the risk of erosion, but for a different reason: crop cover develops more slowly in cooler weather, resulting in a longer exposure of nearly bare ground. The crucial factor affecting both strategies is the timing of autumn and early winter rainfall. We discuss a conceptual model based on the notion of a ‘window of opportunity’ for erosion, comprising the relationship between drilling date, date of attainment of a sufficiently protective crop cover and the timing of rainfall; variations are presented for different weather conditions and management choices. Of these three factors, only the date of drilling can be chosen by the farmer. The date of attaining a sufficiently protective crop cover can only be predicted approximately. The timing of rainfall cannot be predicted. Thus, erosion control advice to farmers, which is based on choice of date of drilling to minimize erosion during the ‘window of opportunity’, is both difficult to formulate and likely to be ineffective. Sites at risk of erosion need to have better thought‐out mitigation measures in place, rather than relying on a fortuitous temporal pattern of autumn and winter rainfall to minimize the risk of erosion.     

固原市主要农作物生育期有效降水与需水量特征

由于干旱地区常年降雨资源匮乏,为提高旱区降雨资源的高效利用及更加精准的掌握该地区主要农作物的水分供需平衡状况。采用美国农业部(USDA)土壤保持局推荐的有效降水量和联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)推荐的参考作物蒸散量计算方法、线性分析法、Mann-Kendall检验法及小波分析法,研究了固原地区近60年3种主要农作物的有效降雨量及需水量的时空变化趋势。结果表明:(1) 3种作物生育期平均有效降水分布在68.8～177 mm,玉米和马铃薯生育期有效降雨量呈减小趋势,春小麦呈上升趋势,且有效降水周期呈大—小—大的变化规律;(2) 3种作物生育期平均需水量主要分布在233.7～439.3 mm,生育期需水量均呈上升趋势,分别为2.4 mm/10 a, 0.8 mm/10 a, 2.3 mm/10 a,需水量周期也呈"大—小—大"的变化规律;(3)马铃薯、玉米、春小麦的平均水分盈亏指数为-38.0%,-57.5%,-58.7%,玉米和春小麦对灌溉的依赖程度较马铃薯高。综合考虑分析固原地区多年降水和作物需水分布特征的趋势,研究结果可以为该地区3种农作物合理种植及灌溉提供理论依据,同时为发展该地区主...     

黄土区荒草地土壤水平衡的数值模拟

林草植被深层土壤干燥化是黄土高原地区生态环境建设过程中面临的重大科学问题。采用人工降雨的试验方法,对黄土高原沟壑区荒草坡地不同水文年土壤水平衡进行了数值模拟,结果表明:当植被覆盖率较高时,WAVES模型可以应用于荒草坡地土壤水平衡的模拟;土壤储水量的模拟结果与实测值趋势很吻合,但有关参数的取值还有待于进一步研究;荒草地土壤水分收支基本平衡所需的雨季降雨量和年总降雨量分别为507.0mm和747.6mm,分别高于黄土高原地区多年平均的雨季降雨量和年总降雨量,预示黄土高原地区干旱年和平水年土壤水分易收支负平衡,从而形成土壤干层。     

2000-2013年西安市植被覆盖度时空演变

随着黄土高原地区退耕还林政策的实施,近十几年西安市植被覆盖情况变化发生了显著变化。为了对西安市植被覆盖变化进行深入的研究,利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法及Hurst指数、Pettitt检验法分析了2000-2013年来西安市植被覆盖度变化特征,并利用重心转移模型和相对发展率分析了西安市植被覆盖度变化的空间变化差异。结果表明:（1）西安市植被覆盖度中等程度变异面积占总面积10.02%;（2）西安市植被覆盖度呈增加趋势的面积占区域总面积86.54%,具有正向持续性的面积占区域总面积72.62%,35.30%面积植被覆盖度呈持续改善;（3）西安市植被覆盖度突变年份均显著发生在2004年、2005年、2006年、2007年、2008年,发生显著突变年份的面积占总面积的17.58%;（4）西安市植被覆盖度相对发展率空间变化范围为-9.07~7.49,相对发展率的负值占区域总面积的20.77%,西安市植被覆盖度空间重心呈现由西南逐渐向东北方向转移的趋势;（5）西安市降雨量与植被覆盖度均值均呈现增加趋势,相关系数为0.47（p<0.09）,空间分布重心呈现从东北向西南转移的趋势,与植被变化呈现相反的趋势。研究成果有助于进一步深化对西安市植被恢复状况及其影响因素的认识,为西安市植被恢复等生态建设工程提供一定的科学依据。     

基于改进帕默尔干旱指数的中国气象干旱时空演变分析

近几十年来随着全球变暖的不断加剧,中国多地频繁发生干旱灾害,经济损失也越来越大,因而研究干旱的时空演变对社会经济发展具有重要的现实意义。论文基于改进帕默尔干旱指数(sc PDSI)分析了1961—2009年间年和四季干湿变化,并利用旋转经验正交函数(rotated empirical orthogonal function,REOF)探讨了中国气象干旱的时空演变特征。结果表明:1)近49 a来,整体上中国年和四季均呈显著变湿趋势,且均在20世纪70年代初期发生了由干变湿的突变;2)年及四季均存在2~8 a的振荡周期,其中夏季主周期为4.4 a,其余主周期均为6.2 a;3)根据REOF时空分解的前8个空间模态,将中国划分成8个干湿特征区域,其中大兴安岭地区、东南地区、西北地区和青藏高原南部地区有变湿趋势,后两个区域变湿趋势显著;东北—内蒙古高原区、青藏高原北部地区、中部地区和黄淮海平原地区呈变干趋势,前3个区变干趋势显著,黄淮海平原分区干湿变化不明显;各分区普遍具有2~9 a的振荡周期;4)极涡指数、印度洋偶极子和太平洋涛动与部分地区气象干旱有较好的相关关系。研究结果可为研究区防旱、抗旱与干旱预测提供参考依据。     

干旱条件下墨西哥中部高地不同耕作措施和农作物残留物管理对玉米产量和净收益的影响

In the subtropical highlands of Central Mexico, where the main crop is maize （Zea mays）, the conventional practice （CP） involves tillage, monoculture and residue removal, leading to soil degradation and unsustainable use of natural resources and agricultural inputs. Conservation agriculture （CA） has been proposed as a viable alternative in the region, based on reduction in tillage, retention of adequate levels of crop residues and soil surface cover and use of crop rotation. This study began in 2009 when the highlands of Central Mexico suffered from a prolonged drought during vegetative maize growth in July-August, providing an opportunity for the on-farm comparison of CA with CP under severe drought conditions which 21 climate change models projected to become more frequent. Under dry conditions, CA resulted in higher yields and net returns per hectare as early as the first and second years after adoption by farmers. As an average of 27 plots under farmers＇ management in 2009, the maize yields were 26% higher under CA （6.3 t ha-1） than under CP （5.0 t ha-l）. 2010 was close to a normal year in terms of rainfall so yields were higher than in 2009 for both practices; in addition, the yield difference between the practices was reduced to 19% （6.8 t ha-1 for CA vs. 5.7 t ha-1 for CP）. When all the 2009 and 2010 observations were analyzed in a modified stability analysis, CA had an overall positive effect of 3 838 Mexican Pesos ha-1 （320 $US ha-1） on net return and 1.3 t ha-1 on yield. After only one to two years of adoption by farmers on their fields, CA had higher yields and net returns under dry conditions that were even drier than those predicted by the analyzed 21 climate change models under a climate change scenario, emission scenario A2.     

1960-2011年西南地区干旱时空格局分析

基于西南地区130个气象站1960-2011年气象资料,计算了各站不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI),并采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法和反距离加权插值等方法,分析了该区近52a以来干旱发生的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)各区域干旱存在明显的年际变化波动且线性变化趋势较为显著,近12a来干旱次数明显增多。大部分区域干旱指数在春夏秋季均呈减少趋势,秋季最为明显,冬季反之。(2)空间分布方面,横断山地、广西丘陵、四川盆地东部和贵州高原南部春旱频率较高。夏旱主要发生在横断山地北部,若尔盖高原,四川盆地的西部和南部,云南高原中部和广西丘陵。云南高原南部,横断山地西南部,贵州高原和广西丘陵的秋旱频率较高。冬季干旱频率高值区主要集中在若尔盖高原、四川盆地西南部一带。     

低纬高原冬季与春季降水特征及其环流背景差异分析

利用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、相关分析、小波分析等方法对低纬高原地区148站的气象观测数据进行分析,以揭示该区域冬、春季的降水时空分布及其环流背景差异,了解低纬高原干旱的原因。结果表明：冬、春季降水时空分布特征差异显著,春季降水量较大幅度高于冬季,差异最大区域位于低纬高原的西部和南部,呈“L”型区域分布;冬季降水在1985-1990年和2005年以后存在4～6a的振荡周期,1990年以后存在准2a和10a左右的振荡周期;春季降水在1995年以前存在较明显的4～6a振荡周期,2001年以后存在准2a的振荡周期。导致冬、春季降水差异显著的环流背景主要为：与冬季相比,春季青藏高原北侧的东亚大槽较弱;但高原南侧的南支槽活跃;海洋上的西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏西,沿着高压外围的气流更容易到达低纬高原,从而水汽输送更强;副高与南亚高压的两高辐合区向北延伸的范围更大,有利于低纬高原降水。进一步研究表明,低纬高原冬季降水主要与青藏高原南侧孟加拉湾附近区域的热力作用密切相关,春季降水则与该地区的比湿关系显著。     

Land degradation: socioeconomic and environmental causes and consequences in the eastern Mediterranean

Land degradation is a natural and socioeconomic cause–effect phenomenon that is widespread all over the world. This study investigated the socioeconomic factors and causes of land degradation (e.g. population growth and urbanization, poverty, overgrazing, pollution, biodiversity, erosion) in the eastern part of the Mediterranean region. The study revealed a significant land use change from agricultural and natural vegetation to urbanized areas due to the high population increase during the last ca. 80 years (51‐times the magnitude of the total built‐up area). The high poverty rate that exists in the area (57 per cent of the population can be classed as ‘poor’) has resulted in damaging environmental practices (overgrazing and intensive usage of natural plants); we found 83 per cent of the farmers admitted to the adoption of these practices. Poverty has also resulted in an inverse and significant correlation (at the 95 per cent confidence level) between holding size and the sale of land for urban uses. We also noted that 75 per cent of the smallholder farmers surveyed had sold their lands for immediate benefits to cope with poverty. This relation was affected by the education level of the farmers; we found a direct and significant (95 per cent confidence level) correlation existed between these factors. Overgrazing was practised by 70 per cent of the farmers and was found to be one of the most important environmental consequences of land use change (1600 ha have been transformed from natural grazing to built‐up (urban) in the study area). Socio‐economic induced land degradation demands efforts to improve farmer environmental awareness as well as environmental standards, laws and bylaws and the reduction of mismanagement of land. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于标准化降水指数的山东省近45年旱涝演变特征

为探究山东省旱涝的演变特征,使用山东省25个国家气象观测站近45年的逐月降水资料,计算了月、季节和年尺度标准化降水指数(SPI),用旱涝频率、旱涝站次比、旱涝强度等指标分析了山东省旱涝的时空特征。结果表明:(1)山东省多年平均雨涝频率高于干旱频率,但不同地区、不同等级的旱涝频率差异较大,旱涝事件呈常态化发展趋势。(2)山东省旱涝影响范围大致相当。20世纪70年代的秋季旱涝状态以正常为主,其他时段各季节旱涝状态以交替出现为主。各季节多年平均雨涝频率均高于干旱频率,但多年和各季节的平均干旱强度均高于平均雨涝强度。(3)山东省受干旱的影响总体上大于雨涝,但20世纪70年代雨涝的强度和范围均明显大于干旱。20世纪80年代的秋季干旱影响范围最大,20世纪80年代的冬季雨涝影响范围最大。山东省旱涝的时空差异较大,全省受干旱的影响总体上大于雨涝,旱涝事件为常态化事件。     

Dryland salinity and rainfall patterns: A preliminary investigation in central west New South Wales (Australia)

Dryland salinity is an increasingly serious land degradation problem in many parts of the world. Bare salinised ground leads to accelerated rates of sheet, rill and gully erosion; decreasing plant productivity; and declining surface water quality. In a given geological, climatic and land use situation, rainfall patterns may influence the changing extent of dryland salinity. This possibility was investigated for an area in Australia with long‐term rainfall records. Changes in salinisation were recorded using nine sets of aerial photographs. Saline sites fluctuated in size between photo‐years but their number and extent increased between 1958 and 1996, with sites along wash lines being especially responsive to rainfall variations. Saline areas generally decreased in size and number during the wet period from 1958 to the early 1970s, extended during drought years in the early 1980s, then increased markedly to 1996 during a period of above average rainfall. Three saline sites showed a broad inverse relationship between salinity (bare ground) extent and rainfall in the pre‐drought period but post‐drought trends showed increasing rainfall associated with increasing salinisation. Short‐term variations in salinity were superimposed on longer‐term expansion. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄土高原汛期降水年代际演变

利用黄土高原区域40a的降水资料，研究汛期降水年代际演变。结果表明，黄土高原汛期旱涝交错的变化幅度不断减小；降水带南移雨量带南移。20世纪80年代较60年代南移0.6个纬度，90年代南移约1．8个纬度（高原东部地区南移4个纬度）。前3个模态演变的转折（突变）时间和显著程度不同，但其振荡强度和周期的阶段性与降水对应较好。多雨期降水变幅大，周期短，振荡强。少雨期对应多周期，弱振荡。降水异常的敏感区年代际变动明显，演化路径基本由东北向西南移动，高原西部旱涝灾害趋向频繁。     

陕西省降雨和风蚀气候侵蚀力时空分布特征

[目的]研究陕西省不同区域降雨侵蚀力和风蚀气候侵蚀力的时空分布特征、突变特征和周期特性等,为陕西水土流失防治和生态建设提供科学依据。[方法]利用陕西省96个气象站1981—2020年气象观测资料计算了全省降雨侵蚀力和风蚀气候侵蚀力,采用气候趋势分析、空间插值、M-K检验、小波分析等方法,分析了陕西省风蚀、水蚀气候侵蚀力时空分布特征、突变和周期特征等。[结果](1)全省1981—2020年降雨侵蚀力为2 719.6 MJ·mm/(hm²·h),空间差异性较大,呈现南高北低的空间分布。陕西省风蚀气候侵蚀力为3.18,呈现北高南低的空间分布特征。(2)近40年陕西省降雨侵蚀力年际波动较大,呈现微弱上升趋势,但未通过显著性检验。全省降雨侵蚀力经历了先减小后增大的变化趋势,目前处于降雨侵蚀较大的年代。陕西省风蚀气候侵蚀力年际波动较大,但无显著变化趋势。风蚀气候侵蚀力近40年先增强后减弱,大部分地区风蚀气候侵蚀力在20世纪90年代最强,目前处于最弱的年代。(3)降雨侵蚀力主要以6—9月较大,最大值出现在7月,风蚀气候侵蚀力则以冬春两季较大,4月最大,二者具有明显的非同步性。(...     

Soil‐moisture change caused by experimental extreme summer drought is similar to natural inter‐annual variation in a loamy sand in Central Europe

Intensification of weather extremes is currently emerging as one of the most important facets of climate change. Research frontiers are in analyzing (1) the consequences for the hydrological cycle and (2) the effects of multifactor scenarios on ecosystems. However, in all theoretical and experimental scenarios, challenges arise as to how precipitation regimes translate into variation in soil moisture. Here, we explore soil‐moisture response to experimental changes in the precipitation regime in Central Europe over a period of 5 y, particularly focusing on the effects of recurrent extreme weather events. Intraannual difference in weekly precipitation sums imposed by extreme‐drought or heavy‐rainfall manipulations clearly exceeded interannual variation in the ambient precipitation pattern during the growing season between 2005 and 2009. However, soil‐moisture variability in the experimental plots did not clearly reflect any altered patterns in response to the manipulated precipitation regime. Natural variation in soil moisture between years was similar to within‐season differences between manipulations. Strong differences in soil‐moisture dynamics during the growing season can, however, be generated by changing the temporal distribution of rainfall events while keeping the magnitude of the precipitation sum constant. Our findings confirm a common methodological dilemma in precipitation‐change experiments searching for a logical way to determine how precipitation change affects communities and ecosystems on relatively short time scales: Alteration of weather regimes according to extreme‐value statistics and future scenarios vs. systematic alteration of soil moisture. For Central Europe, our data suggest that other factors rather than the magnitude of rainfall exclusion or addition would appear to be decisive for ecosystem response to more extreme precipitation regimes. Response of soil moisture to frequency, return interval, and timing of events is a promising approach for further exploration. In addition, buffer capacity of the ecosystem under study has to be taken into account.