新疆天山北坡城市群经济联系分析

在经济全球化与区域一体化进程不断加快的背景下,城市间的经济联系日益加深.城市流强度是表示城市对外服务功能的量化指标,描述了城市对外联系的强弱.文中以天山北坡城市群为研究区域,运用城市流强度模型,对其城市流强度和结构,以及城市的产业结构趋同性进行了分析.结果显示:对外经济联系具有显著的规模等级差异,形成了以乌鲁木齐为中心...     

An analysis of oasis stability in arid areas: a case study in the northern slope areas of the Tianshan Mountains

This paper discusses oasis stability at regional scale with a case study in the northern slope areas of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM). The results showed certain significant aspects. (1) As long as water resources in the oasis keep stable and their utilization efficiency can be maintained or gradually increased, the primary productivity could be continuously increased and the natural primary productivity keeped relatively stable. In this case, it is considered that the oasis is stable and its sustainable development can be achieved at regional scale. (2) Considering the availability of water resources in the oases, the oases on the alluvial-diluvial fans are highly stable. In the alluvial plain downstream of the groundwater overflowing zones the oases are moderately stable and in the lacustrine deltas or dry lacustrine deltas the oases are lowly stable. (3) Enlargement of oases and the increase of water resources and vegetation coverage in the oasis will certainly enhance the "cold-island effect" of the oasis and increase the stability of oases.     

天山北坡绿洲城镇用地扩展及其驱动力分析

以1990年和2007年TM/ETM遥感影像为数据源,利用人机交互解译的方法得到研究区2期土地利用现状图;利用GIS空间分析技术,对天山北坡绿洲城镇用地的扩展采用土地扩展集中指数、土地利用动态度和相对变化率等方法进行分析;同时采用主成分法对城镇用地扩展的驱动力进行研究。结果表明：建设用地中的城镇、农村居民点及其他建设用...     

Response of ecosystem service value to land use/cover change in the northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang, China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is becoming more and more frequent and extensive as a result of human activities, and is expected to have a major impact on human welfare by altering ecosystem service value (ESV). In this study, we utilized remote sensing images and statistical data to explore the spatial-temporal changes of land use/cover types and ESV in the northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China from 1975 to 2018. During the study period, LUCC in the study region varied significantly. Except grassland and unused land, all the other land use/cover types (cultivated land, forestland, waterbody, and construction land) increased in areas. From 1975 to 2018, the spatial-temporal variations in ESV were also pronounced. The total ESV decreased by 4.00×10⁸ CNY, which was primarily due to the reductions in the areas of grassland and unused land. Waterbody had a much higher ESV than the other land use/cover types. Ultimately, understanding the impact of LUCC on ESV and the interactions among ESV of different land use/cover types will help improve existing land use policies and provide scientific basis for developing new conservation strategies for ecologically fragile areas.     

新疆天山极端干湿事件时空演变特征

基于新疆天山26个气象站1960—2017年的气象资料,采用FAO Penman-Monteith模型计算了各气象站月地表湿润指数,标准化后统计极端干湿事件频率.运用线性趋势分析法、反距离加权法探究了极端干湿事件频率的时空演变特征,并采用相关分析、偏相关分析及交叉小波分析分别探讨了气象因子和大气环流对极端干湿事件变化的...     

天山北麓黄土剖面的光释光测年分析

利用单片再生剂量法(SAR),测量了天山北麓大佛寺(DFS)、牛圈子(NJZ)2个风成黄土剖面的OSL信号特征与年龄.结果表明:天山北麓黄土的初始OSL信号强度低于黄土高原地区,并且4～11 μm混合矿物颗粒的IRSL、post-IR信号及40 ～ 63 μm石英颗粒的BLSL信号对人工剂量响应的灵敏度较低,其中细颗粒混合矿物的post-IR信号,甚至难以拟合出满意的生长曲线和等效剂量.依据40～63 μm石英颗粒BLSL信号计算出的年龄与地层深度则对应良好.DFS剖面底部年龄为(6.85 ±0.56)ka,表明其黄土物质沉积始于全新世大暖期.NJZ剖面出露黄土的最老年龄为(23.83±2.36)ka,整个剖面包括了晚更新世马兰黄土上部及全新世早期黄土,而全新世大暖期以来的黄土物质则可能因流水侵蚀而缺失.通过计算可以确定DFS、NJZ 2个剖面的平均黄土沉积速率介于0.25～0.26m·ka-1.     

天山北坡经济带产业聚集与空间结构研究

产业聚集是区域经济发展中的必然过程和显著特点,产业空间结构则是在其过程中所形成的地域布局格局。天山北坡经济带作为重点经济开发区域,由于其自然条件与资源禀赋、区位交通与地缘优势、区域发展战略与产业布局、产业结构与产业分工调整等主要因素作用,发生了较为明显的产业聚集现象,演化发展成"一轴四区"的产业空间结构,产业地域分工明确。本文通过分析,提出了天山北坡经济带产业发展与调整的战略目标、思路和方向,以及产业聚集与城镇化发展、资源开发和绿洲生态环境相关问题的思考。     

围栏封育对草原植被及多样性的影响

通过对乌鲁木齐地区典型草原围栏内外植被特征、多样性指数、土壤种子库及地下生物量的调查研究,结果表明:2年围栏后,草原植物群落的盖度、产量有大幅度提高,显著高于围栏外,且优势种表现更加明显;围栏内外物种丰富度指数S、优势度指数D和Shannon-Wiener指数H'、均匀度指数Jsw差异不显著;围栏内0～5 cm和10～15 cm土层中的地下生物量明显高于围栏外,但地下总生物量差异不显著,且主要分布在0～15 cm的土层中;围栏后的土壤种子总数及分层种子数明显高于围栏外,且种子主要集中在0～5 cm的土层中.     

Climate change in the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains based on GCM simulation ensemble with Bayesian model averaging

Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21~(st) century for the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains(TKM) based on the general circulation model(GCM) simulation ensemble from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5(CMIP5) under the representative concentration pathway(RCP) lower emission scenario RCP4.5 and higher emission scenario RCP8.5 using the Bayesian model averaging(BMA) technique. Results show that(1) BMA significantly outperformed the simple ensemble analysis and BMA mean matches all the three observed climate variables;(2) at the end of the 21~(st) century(2070–2099) under RCP8.5, compared to the control period(1976–2005), annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation will rise considerably by 4.8°C and 5.2%, respectively, while mean annual snowfall will dramatically decrease by 26.5%;(3) precipitation will increase in the northern Tianshan region while decrease in the Amu Darya Basin. Snowfall will significantly decrease in the western TKM. Mean annual snowfall fraction will also decrease from 0.56 of 1976–2005 to 0.42 of 2070–2099 under RCP8.5; and(4) snowfall shows a high sensitivity to temperature in autumn and spring while a low sensitivity in winter, with the highest sensitivity values occurring at the edge areas of TKM. The projections mean that flood risk will increase and solid water storage will decrease.     

中国天山山区药用植物资源及其保护与利用

天山山区得天独厚的自然条件孕育了丰富的药用植物资源，加上多民族聚居，三大医药体系交融等人文条件，使这些药用植物长期以来在当地居民与疾病作斗争中发挥了重要作用，据估算，整个天山山区有药用植物200多种，依功能，疗效可分为16类，在对这些资源的开发，利用与保护上，仍存在众多的问题，本文对存在的问题予以分析并提出了相应的对策；指导思想上，阐述了利用与保护的关系；利用方面，提出了加速升值研究；保护方面，提出了变消极保护为积极保护。     

中国天山山区新疆贝母居群遗传多样性及其环境适应性

新疆贝母(Fritillaria walujewii)具较高的药学利用价值,但现存量稀少,被列为新疆Ⅰ级保护植物。通过选取3个叶绿体基因片段,分析新疆贝母18个居群的遗传多样性,检测18个居群样地的土壤因子,利用SPSS软件分析了遗传多样性与土壤因子的关系。结果表明:新疆贝母居群总的遗传多样性较高,单倍型多样性指数与土壤中的全盐、SO_4~(2-)、Ca~(2+)、Mg~(2+)、有机碳、有机质、全氮、全磷含量呈显著正相关;平均等位差异与土壤SO_4~(2-)、Ca~(2+)、有机碳含量呈显著正相关;核苷酸多样性指数与土壤中的全盐、SO_4~(2-)、Ca~(2+)、Mg~(2+)、有机碳、有机质、全N呈极显著正相关,与土壤pH呈显著负相关。对新疆贝母居群土壤因子进行主成分分析,得到3个主分量,占总信息量的80.22%,得出新疆贝母的分布主要与全盐、有机碳、有机质、全N、全P、Ca~(2+)、SO_4~(2-)有关。土壤中硫酸盐和土壤有机质与新疆贝母居群遗传多样性显著相关,对新疆贝母居群的遗传多样性具有一定程度的选择性压力,在维持新疆贝母居群遗传多样性方面扮演较重要的角色,同时在一定程度上影响了新疆贝母目前的分布格局。     

天山北麓中段地下水水化学特征及其形成作用

本文通过分析天山北麓中段地下水水化学特征,并对比潜水和承压水水化学特征的异同点,得出结论:(1)地下水化学场受到地质地貌的控制作用,自南向北呈现明显的水平分带性。(2)山前冲洪积扇区,潜水和承压水联系密切,水质好,是城市集中供水水源地的良好选择。(3)细土平原区,潜水沿河道两侧分布着一定宽度的淡水带,反映在一定程度上接受河水的补给。(4)承压水是细土平原区工农业用水的首要选择;沙漠边缘和乌鲁木齐城镇区地下水水质差,不宜利用,可采用地表水或外流域调水。(5)地下水水化学特征的形成是受溶滤作用、蒸发作用和脱硫酸作用以及阳离子交换作用等共同作用的结果。     

基于改进相对资源承载力模型的天山北坡可持续发展研究

某一区域人口可持续发展的重要保障在于这一区域的自然资源及经济资源禀赋条件,特定区域人口和经济的双重合理布局是可持续发展的基础。利用改进的相对资源承载力模型,计算2000-2010年天山北坡的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力,探讨天山北坡各县市相对资源承载力的时空演变及差异特征。研究表明：① 以新疆为参照区,近10 a来天山北坡处于人口非常富余、经济超载或严重超载阶段。② 与全疆相比,水资源是天山北坡的优势资源,土地资源是制约天山北坡人口、经济发展的劣势资源。③ 以天山北坡为参照区,相对资源人口承载力非常富余度最大的是克拉玛依市,超载最严重的是博乐市;相对资源经济承载力超载最严重的是克拉玛依市,非常富余度最大的是奇台县。④ 依据相对资源人口、经济承载力的超载或富余状态,将天山北坡各县市归为4类资源承载力匹配区。     

新疆天山山区TRMM卫星降水数据的复合校正方法

在新疆天山山区,利用重建时间序列后的NDVI和DEM数据,基于人工神经网络对TRMM3B43月降水数据进行了校正。并采用研究区25个站点实测降水数据对仅考虑地理因子校正后的TRMM值与同时考虑地理因子和NDVI进行校正后的TRMM值分别进行精度检验,结果表明:仅考虑地理因子校正后的TRMM数据的校正效果明显,同时考虑地理因子与NDVI进行校正后的TRMM数据效果更好,R2显著提高,δ和RMSE明显降低。对于单个站点而言,仅考虑地理因子校正后的TRMM数据和综合考虑地理因子和NDVI校正后的TRMM数据精度大部分有所提高,个别站点与实测值之间有一定差异,降水量相对较小的站点差异较明显。     

中国东天山北坡40年来水热组合变化与古气候的关系

利用东天山北坡山区和平原共6个气象站40年来的降水量及气温记录,对各季、年的水热组合状况及其变化进行了统计分析,并与新疆5 000 aB P(中晚全新世)以来的水热组合主要规律进行了对比讨论.得到的基本结论为:(1) 从变化趋势看,除1987年相对暖湿(平原和秋冬两季表现尤其明显)外,40年来其它时段基本以暖干气候为主,也有冷湿气候出现;(2) 该结果与新疆历史时期百年尺度的水热组合变化规律存在一定的差异;(3)在一定程度上体现了中晚全新世以来,新疆气候以冷湿、暖干为主的水热组合规律只能代表百年尺度的变化,而年际尺度的变化规律还需要更多更深入地研究.     

天山北坡山区流域融雪径流模拟研究

天山北坡山区流域资料稀缺,融雪径流模拟比较困难。以天山北坡的乌鲁木齐河、玛纳斯河和奎屯河流域为例,利用水文气象资料和冰雪遥感数据,建立流域融雪径流SRM模型,以2007年3—8月为模拟校准期,2005年和2006年3—8月为模拟检验期,模拟3个资料稀缺山区流域融雪日径流,检验模拟结果和模型的有效性,评价SRM模型在资料稀缺流域的适用性。结果表明:3个流域SRM模型融雪径流模拟具有比较好的模拟效果。在模拟校准期间,3个流域R2平均值为0.85,D_V平均值为9.42%,模拟精度比较高;在模拟检校期,2006年3个流域R~2平均值为0.72,D_V平均值为13.3%,2005年R~2平均值为0.78,D_V平均值为4.85%,表明3个流域SRM模型的参数估算合理,建立的SRM模型是有效的,SRM模型在天山北坡的资料稀缺山区流域融雪径流模拟中具有其适用性。     

新疆天山北麓典型绿洲城市的水资源模糊综合评价研究

本文主要采用模糊评价法对新疆天山北麓的乌鲁木齐、石河子、克拉玛依三个绿洲城市的水资源利用程度进行评价分析,认为这三个城市的水资源开发利用虽处于开发利用的起步阶段,水资源开发规模较小,开发程度较低,利用率不高且对水资源的利用发展缓慢,制约了其水资源的可持续开发利用。最后提出解决新疆天山北麓城镇所面临的水资源问题的有效措施。     

Interdecadal variations of pan-evaporation at the southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains,China

Evaporation controlled by meteorological parameters plays a crucial role in hydrology,meteorology and water resources management.An insight view of long-term variation in evaporation will help understanding the effects of climate change and provide useful information for rational utilization of water resources,especially in the arid land where the shortage of water resources exists.However,the lack of data on evaporation led to difficulties in assessing the impacts of climate change on evaporation,especially in arid mountainous area.This study investigated the long-term variation of the pan-evaporation(Ep) measured by E601 type evaporation pan and its influencing climatic factors at both northern and southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang of China using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and Path analysis.The results revealed that Eps at both northern and southern slopes had obvious interdecadal variation within cycles of 3–4 and 7–8 years.Eps at both slopes sharply decreased in early 1980 s,but increased after late 1990 s.Path analysis showed that the 3–4 years cycle of Ep at the northern and southern slopes was mainly dependent upon actual water vapor pressure with a negative direct path coefficient of –0.515 and sunshine duration with a positive direct path coefficient of 0.370,respectively.The variation of Ep with cycle of 7–8 years at the northern slope was attributed to the wind speed with a direct path coefficient of 0.774.Average temperature had a direct path coefficient of 0.813 in 7–8 years cycle at the southern slope.The assessment of Ep variation and its causes provides information essential for a good understanding of hydrologic cycle and regional climate of arid mountainous regions in Xinjiang of China and offers a theoretical reference for distribution and utilization of water resources.