How to provide scientific advice for ecosystem‐based management now

In this paper, I argue that we have at hand what is needed to provide scientific advice for ecosystem‐based management of small pelagics and other species groups now. The ingredients for this advice are (i) large marine ecosystems as spatial management units; (ii) maintaining ecosystem productivity and exploiting at multispecies maximum yield as overarching management objectives; (iii) assessment of ecosystems by evaluating changes in primary productivity; (iv) an operational management procedure in which single‐species catch proposals are adjusted to ecosystem productivity using a set of control rules. Inspection of historic landings for small pelagics and other small species in the Northeast Atlantic (ICES area) reveals that most likely fisheries exploitation does not, and never did, exceed system productivity in most LMEs and is therefore overall sustainable, although not necessarily for individual stocks.     

A simple method for estimating MSY from catch and resilience

The Law of the Sea requires that fish stocks are maintained at levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). However, for most fish stocks, no estimates of MSY are currently available. Here, we present a new method for estimating MSY from catch data, resilience of the respective species, and simple assumptions about relative stock sizes at the first and final year of the catch data time series. We compare our results with 146 MSY estimates derived from full stock assessments and find excellent agreement. We present principles for fisheries management of data‐poor stocks, based only on information about catches and MSY.     

适用于数据缺乏渔业的资源评估方法研究进展

开展渔业资源评估研究是制定渔业可持续发展策略的重要前提,而数据有限是全球渔业资源评估面临的普遍挑战.传统资源评估方法具有数据需求量大、要求高等特点,无法应用于数据缺乏渔业的资源评估中.数据缺乏方法(data-limited method)可结合少量易获得数据和相关历史生物学信息对渔业资源状况、生物学参考点以及资源量等进...     

Using the best of two worlds: A bio-economic stock assessment (BESA) method using catch and price data

Reliable stock assessments are essential for successful and sustainable fisheries management. Advanced stock assessment methods are expensive, as they require age- or length-structured catch and detailed fishery-independent data, which prevents their widespread use, especially in developing regions. Furthermore, modern fisheries management increasingly includes socio-economic considerations. Integrated ecological-economic advice can be provided by bio-economic models, but this requires the estimation of economic parameters. To improve accuracy of data-limited stock assessment while jointly estimating biological and economic parameters, we propose to use price data, in addition to catches, in a new bio-economic stock assessment (‘BESA’) approach for de-facto open access stocks. Price data are widely available, also in the Global South. BESA is based on a state-space approach and uncovers biomass dynamics by use of the extended Kalman filter in combination with Bayesian estimation. We show that estimates for biological and economic parameters can be obtained jointly, with reliability gains for the stock assessment from the additional information inherent in price data, compared to alternative assessment methods for data-poor stocks. In a real-world application to Barents Sea shrimp (Pandalus borealis, Pandalidae), we show that BESA benchmarks well also against advanced stock assessment results. BESA can thus be both a stand-alone approach for currently unassessed stocks as well as a complement to other available methods by providing bio-economic information for advanced fisheries management.     

基于CMSY和BSM的东海区重要渔业种类资源评估

有限数据方法(data-limited method)可结合少量易获得数据和相关生物学信息对渔业资源状况、生物学参考点以及生物量等进行评估,已经成为全球区域性渔业管理组织和资源评估学者的关注热点。本研究采用基于渔获量的最大可持续渔获量(catch-based maximum sustainable yield,CMSY)和基于贝叶斯状态空间的Schaefer产量模型(Bayesian Schaefer production model,BSM)评估了东海区19个重要经济种类的资源状况,并提出了基于最大可持续渔获量(maximum sustainable yield,MSY)的渔业管理建议。结果显示,19个种类中有1个种类衰竭,3个种类严重衰退,5个种类过度捕捞,5个种类轻度过度捕捞,5个种类健康。种群状态长期评估结果表明,处于生物可持续水平的鱼类种群占比已由1980年的95%下降至2019年的26%。同时对CMSY和BSM方法的结果进行了比较,整合单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)数据的BSM方法导致了置信区间较宽,并调节了生物量轨迹的变化形态...     

The unfulfilled potential of fisheries selectivity to promote sustainability

The recent reform of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in Europe highlights the need for improvements in both species and size selectivity. Regarding size selectivity, shifting selectivity towards older/larger fish avoids both growth and recruitment overfishing and reduces unwanted catches. However, the benefits to fish stocks and fishery yields from increasing age/size‐at‐selection are still being challenged and the relative importance of selectivity compared to that of exploitation rate remains unclear. Consequently, exploitation rate regulations continue to dominate management. Here, an age‐structured population model parameterized for a wide range of stocks is used to investigate the effects of selectivity on spawning stock biomass (SSB) and yield. The generic effect of selectivity on SSB and yield over a wide range of stocks is compared to the respective relative effects of exploitation rate and several biological parameters. We show that yield is mainly driven by biological parameters, while SSB is mostly affected by the exploitation regime (i.e. exploitation rate and selectivity). Our analysis highlights the importance of selectivity for fisheries sustainability. Catching fish a year or more after they mature combined with an intermediate exploitation rate (F ≈ 0.3) promotes high sustainable yields at low levels of stock depletion. Examination of the empirical exploitation regimes of 31 NE Atlantic stocks illustrates the unfulfilled potential of most stocks for higher sustainable yields due to high juvenile selection, thus underscoring the importance of protecting juveniles. Explicitly incorporating selectivity scenarios in fisheries advice would allow the identification of optimal exploitation regimes and benefit results‐based management.     

基于生活史特征的数据有限条件下渔业资源评估方法比较

渔业资源评估是开展渔业资源管理,维系渔业可持续发展的基础工作。传统的渔业资源评估方法需要统计产量、资源丰度指数甚至年龄结构等大量数据,由于调查经费和数据的缺乏,全球仅1%的鱼种进行过系统性的资源评估。近年来,在数据有限(data-limited)条件下如何开展资源评估已日益成为学术界的关注热点。本文将基于生活史特征的评估方法分为仅需要生活史参数,需要产量数据和生活史参数,需要产量数据、生活史参数及体长或年龄数据等3大类,分别从方法、数据要求、输出结果及局限性进行了系统回顾分析,提供了关于生活史特征参数的常见估算方法,并就其中两种模型对北大西洋大青鲨(Prionace glauca)的可持续渔获量进行了初步评估与比较。最后,对数据缺乏模型的使用及模型在中国近海渔业资源评估中的运用提出了建议。     

Retrospective analysis of the influence of environmental drivers on commercial stocks and fishing opportunities in the Irish Sea

Irish Sea fisheries have undergone considerable change in recent years following the decline of commercially important finfish stocks and their slow response to management's recovery plans. In 2015, the fishing industry called for a holistic exploration into the impact of environmental change and food web effects to identify the drivers underpinning stock dynamics. In this study, we identify correlations between large‐scale climatic indicators, temperature, primary and secondary productivity, and fish recruitment in the Irish Sea and incorporate them into an Ecopath with Ecosim food web model co‐created by scientists and fishers. Negative correlations were found between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and large zooplankton abundance and between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the recruitment of cod (Gadus morhua) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus). Using correlation analyses to direct the addition of environmental drivers to the Irish Sea ecosystem model improved the models fit against observed biomass and catch data and revealed the indirect impacts of environmental change as mitigated through trophic interactions. Model simulations suggest that historic environmental change suppressed the overall production of commercial finfish, limiting opportunities for the fishing industry, whilst also dampening the rate of stock recovery despite marked reductions in fishing effort. These results suggest that failure to account for ecosystem information may lead to misconceived expectations and flawed fisheries management; therefore, there is a need to operationalize ecosystem information through management procedures to support fisheries advice.     

Broadbill swordfish: status of established fisheries and lessons for developing fisheries

Guidelines for the assessment and management of developing swordfish fisheries are derived through an examination of five swordfish fisheries. As they develop, swordfish fisheries may be inclined to local depletion around underwater features, such as seamounts and banks. Few nations have applied the precautionary approach in managing their developing swordfish fisheries. Without controls, swordfish fisheries expand geographically and fishing effort increases, often overshooting optimum levels. However, it is difficult to distinguish clear evidence of fishery collapse; modern longliners harvest widely distributed tuna and swordfish and they are able to relocate to distant areas or switch between target species in response to fluctuations in species abundance and price. Furthermore, the wide distribution of swordfish combined with year‐round spawning and high growth rates amongst juveniles probably contribute to the apparent resilience of swordfish stocks to intensive harvesting. Over half the world’s swordfish catch is taken as an incidental catch of longliners fishing for tuna. In several areas, such as the North Atlantic, catch quotas have sometimes caused tuna longline fishers to discard swordfish. Minimum size limits have also resulted in discarding of swordfish in tuna fisheries and in dedicated swordfish fisheries. In addition to weakening the effectiveness of those management measures, bycatch and discarding add to the complexities of managing swordfish fisheries and to uncertainties in assessing the stocks. Longliners that target swordfish often fish at high latitudes where interactions with marine wildlife, such as seabird, are generally more frequent than at low latitudes. Concern over incidental catches of marine wildlife and other species is becoming a driving force in the management of several swordfish fisheries. Fishery management organisations will need to implement management measures to protect non‐target species and gather reliable data and information on the situation by placing observers on boats fishing for swordfish.     

Policy needs to improve marine capture fisheries management and to define a role for marine protected areas in Indonesia

Abstract  Management of Indonesia's marine capture fisheries faces a huge dilemma: evidence suggests that most, if not all, of Indonesia's capture fisheries are fully or overexploited, but the fishery sector is still expected to contribute to the increase of Indonesia's gross national product (GNP) through an increase in total catches. Furthermore, the current practice of using catch-effort data and Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) models to inform Indonesia's fisheries policies is flawed, putting sustainability and long-term profitability of Indonesia's fisheries at risk. It is argued that the following shift in capture fisheries management policy must be achieved to ensure the survival of Indonesia's fish stocks and fisheries:
1  a shift in fisheries policy from development-oriented management towards management for sustainability;
2  acceptance by fisheries managers that 'untapped resources' may not exist or cannot be exploited profitably;
3  acceptance by fisheries managers that any transfer of fishing effort between fishing grounds may contribute to collapse of local fisheries;
4  a shift in fisheries management from MSY models to eco-system based management, wherein Marine Protected Areas should play an important role.     

Typology of landowners in Norwegian salmon angling: attitudes towards river owner organisations and management actions

Abstract Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., recreational fisheries in Norway are facing shorter seasons and harvest restrictions because of low adult migration runs. Private fishing‐right holders (landowners) are important stakeholders, being co‐managers of the stocks, owners of salmon habitat and suppliers of angling. Landowners saw measures addressing salmon farming and Gyrodactylus salaris (Malmberg) as the most important management actions to strengthen stocks and downplayed actions restricting their own activity or gain. The results showed a need to build knowledge and improve communication between landowners and river owner organisations about the effects of stocking, catch and release, and other management actions. Four distinct landowner types were identified, based on their objectives for the fishing right. The diversity in the landowner group suggests managing angling tourism will be challenging, and cooperation is required to manage salmon stocks. Policy instruments to facilitate cooperation are discussed for each landowner type.     

The role of environmental conditions and exploitation in determining dynamics of redfish (Sebastes species) in the Northwest Atlantic

The six stocks of redfish (Sebastes spp.) in the Northwest Atlantic have been fished for the past 60 years, during which time they have also experienced considerable variability in environmental conditions. Despite their close proximity and with life‐history features characteristic of many deep‐sea fishes (long‐lived, slow‐growing, late‐maturing, relatively low fecundity), each redfish stock has displayed quite different dynamics. Some have been able to support apparently sustainable fisheries, whereas others have been forced to close. The causes of such differences are unclear. We used dynamic factor analysis to determine the relative impacts of exploitation (days fishing for redfish, days fishing for shrimp, days fished by all fisheries, catch in the redfish fishery, total redfish catch) and environment (North Atlantic Oscillation, surface temperature, salinity, shallow, middle, and deep bottom temperatures) on trends of abundance in each stock over the years 1960–2004. The results showed that a mix of exploitation and environmental variability, with various and different lag times, accounted for observed trends. The Gulf of St. Lawrence stock was affected most by exploitation. Flemish Cap and northern Newfoundland‐Labrador stocks were mostly affected by environmental factors with longer time lags than more southerly stocks. We conclude that management of redfish must take into account individual responses to exploitation and environment over the time periods during which such factors operate, often decades or more, as opposed to the usual practice of reviewing only dynamics of the past few years. Deep‐sea populations cannot be managed on the same scales as shelf fisheries.     

Ecosystem processes are rarely included in tactical fisheries management

Fish stock productivity, and thereby sensitivity to harvesting, depends on physical (e.g. ocean climate) and biological (e.g. prey availability, competition and predation) processes in the ecosystem. The combined impacts of such ecosystem processes and fisheries have lead to stock collapses across the world. While traditional fisheries management focuses on harvest rates and stock biomass, incorporating the impacts of such ecosystem processes are one of the main pillars of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). Although EAFM has been formally adopted widely since the 1990s, little is currently known to what extent ecosystem drivers of fish stock productivity are actually implemented in fisheries management. Based on worldwide review of more than 1200 marine fish stocks, we found that such ecosystem drivers were implemented in the tactical management of only 24 stocks. Most of these cases were in the North Atlantic and north‐east Pacific, where the scientific support is strong. However, the diversity of ecosystem drivers implemented, and in the approaches taken, suggests that implementation is largely a bottom‐up process driven by a few dedicated experts. Our results demonstrate that tactical fisheries management is still predominantly single‐species oriented taking little account of ecosystem processes, implicitly ignoring that fish stock production is dependent on the physical and biological conditions of the ecosystem. Thus, while the ecosystem approach is highlighted in policy, key aspects of it tend yet not to be implemented in actual fisheries management.     

Rebuilding Mediterranean fisheries: a new paradigm for ecological sustainability

In Mediterranean European countries, 85% of the assessed stocks are currently overfished compared to a maximum sustainable yield reference value (MSY) while populations of many commercial species are characterized by truncated size‐ and age‐structures. Rebuilding the size‐ and age‐structure of exploited populations is a management objective that combines single species targets such as MSY with specific goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAF), preserving community size‐structure and the ecological role of different species. Here, we show that under the current fishing regime, stock productivity and fleet profitability are generally impaired by a combination of high fishing mortality and inadequate selectivity patterns. For most of the stocks analysed, a simple reduction in the current fishing mortality (F_cur) towards an MSY reference value (F_MSY), without any change in the fishing selectivity, will allow neither stock biomass nor fisheries yield and revenue to be maximized. On the contrary, management targets can be achieved only through a radical change in fisheries selectivity. Shifting the size of first capture towards the size at which fish cohorts achieve their maximum biomass, the so‐called optimal length, would produce on average between two and three times higher economic yields and much higher biomass at sea for the exploited stocks. Moreover, it would contribute to restore marine ecosystem structure and resilience to enhance ecosystem services such as reservoirs of biodiversity and functioning food webs.     

Estimating stock depletion level from patterns of catch history

The degree to which a stock is depleted is one of the most important quantities in fisheries management because it is used to quantify the success of management and to inform management responses. However, stock depletion is extremely difficult to estimate, particularly with limited data. Using the RAM Legacy database, we developed a boosted regression tree (BRT) model to correlate depletion with a range of predictors calculated from catch data, making the model usable for many fisheries worldwide. The most important predictors were found to be catch trends obtained from linear regressions of scaled catch on time, including regression coefficients for the whole catch time series, the subseries before and after the maximum catch, and in recent years. Eight predictors explain about 80% of variation in depletion. There is a correlation of .5 between measured levels of depletion and the predictions of the BRT model. Predictions are less biased when the stock is fished down below half of the carrying capacity. The BRT model outperforms comparable existing catch‐based depletion estimators and could be used to provide priors for depletion for data‐poor stock assessment methods, or used more directly to provide estimates of the probability that depletion is below a given threshold value.     

A synthetic control approach to estimate the effect of total allowable catches in the high seas

Total allowable catch restrictions (hereafter referred to as catch quotas) play an important role in maintaining healthy fish stocks. While studies have identified a positive relationship between catch quota implementation and improved stock status, these methods are subject to selection bias as catch quotas are typically applied to stocks that are depleted. We address this challenge using the synthetic control method, which estimates the causal effect of catch quotas on fishing mortality and biomass by predicting a synthetic counterfactual outcome. We focus on high seas stocks (tunas, billfishes, and sharks) managed by tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (tRFMOs), first providing an overview of stock status and current management measures in place. We find that implementation of catch quotas by tRFMOs has more than doubled over the past decade. Second, we predict the hypothetical fishing mortality and biomass trajectory for seven high seas quota-managed stocks in absence of a catch quota. These “synthetic non-quota stocks” are predicted using a weighted selection of high seas non-quota stocks. Credibility of the synthetic non-quota stocks is evaluated through diagnostic checks, and robustness tests assess sensitivity to study design. Five credible fishing mortality synthetic controls are predicted: three add support to the hypothesis that catch quotas successfully reduce fishing mortality, while two find that catch quotas increase fishing mortality. While our analysis is limited in scope, given that all seven quota-managed stocks are managed under a single tRFMO, we highlight the potential for the synthetic control method in fisheries management evaluation.     

以有限数据评估方法为基础的海州湾渔业管理策略评估

实验以计算机模拟的管理策略评价方法为基础,以海州湾海域的银鲳、小黄鱼、大泷六线鱼和长蛇鲻为例,对基于数据有限方法的管理策略进行了分析评价。模拟结果显示,基于体长的管理策略能够在产量和避免过度捕捞间取得较好的权衡,其管理效果优于基于捕捞努力量的管理策略。模拟结果显示,银鲳和大泷六线鱼处于过渡捕捞状态;小黄鱼种群规模具有较大波动和不确定性;长蛇鲻种群未遭受过度捕捞。研究表明,基于有限数据评估方法的管理策略可以有效避免潜在的过度捕捞,提升遭受过度捕捞群体的产卵群体生物量规模,具有较好的可持续性,并能维持可观的产量,在我国具有广泛的运用前景。     

International management of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., by the North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organization, 1984–1994

Abstract  The development of distant water fisheries at West Greenland and in the Northern Norwegian Sea during the 1960s and, more recently, in the Faroese zone, led to the establishment, in 1984, of the North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organization (NASCO). This paper summarizes the progress made in the 10 years since this Organization was established towards achieving its goals of conservation, restoration, enhancement and rational management of salmon, Salmo salar L., stocks. Agreements on regulatory measures have reduced the proportion of the total catch taken by the distant water fisheries and, in the case of the West Greenland fishery, management is now firmly based on scientific advice. The stability created by these regulations has allowed NASCO to address the broader areas of conservation called for under the Convention and international action has been taken to address a number of threats to the resource, including the impacts of aquaculture, introductions and transfers, and fishing in international waters by non-contracting parties. These actions are described and the paper concludes that NASCO has a significant role to play in the future, both through continued regulation of the fisheries and by promoting international cooperation to address these broader threats to the resource.     

基于SPiCT模型对数据有限短生命周期阿根廷滑柔鱼的资源评估

以西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼(Illex argentinus)为研究对象,基于连续时间的随机剩余产量模型(a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time,SPiCT),分析了6种方案下参数估计的变化及其对资源评估的影响。对比6种方案中阿根廷滑柔鱼的产量和单位捕捞努力渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)的估计值与观测值间的最小残差平方和,方案3(设置了K、r、q的先验分布)为最适方案。相应的资源评估结果显示,2010年西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼捕捞死亡系数小于最大持续产量时捕捞死亡系数F_(MSY),渔获量小于最大持续产量MSY,预期平衡生物量EEB大于最大持续产量时的生物量B_(MSY),这表明该资源在2010年尚未被过度开发利用。SPiCT模型综合考虑了环境因子、种群间相互作用和网具选择性等因素引起的观测和过程误差,较S、F-EDSP、S-F-EDSP模型及其他离散模型对数据要求低,计算方法简单,更适合数据有限、短生命周期渔业种类的资源评估。另外,可捕系数q值的设置严重影响了SPiCT模型K、B的估计,优化估计可捕系数q将有利于提高其资源评估的准确性。