Energy and the u.s. Economy: a biophysical perspective

A series of hypotheses is presented about the relation of national energy use to national economic activity (both time series and cross-sectional) which offer a different perspective from standard economics for the assessment of historical and current economic events. The analysis incorporates nearly 100 years of time series data and 3 years of cross-sectional data on 87 sectors of the United States economy. Gross national product, labor productivity, and price levels are all correlated closely with various aspects of energy use, and these correlations are improved when corrections are made for energy quality. A large portion of the apparent increase in U.S. energy efficiency has been due to our ability to expand the relative use of high-quality fuels such as petroleum and electricity, and also to relative shifts in fuel use between sectors of the economy. The concept of energy return on investment is introduced as a major driving force in our economy, and data are provided which show a marked decline in energy return on investment for all our principal fuels in recent decades. Future economic growth will depend largely on the net energy yield of alternative fuel sources, and some standard economic models may need to be modified to account for the biophysical constraints on human economic activity.     

多目标桐粮间作经营决策系统的研究

该系统在微机的支持下以不同的立地条件及不同经营措施的生长指标划分了四种泡桐生长模型,以此作为“事件”,再分别以间种不同密度级的泡桐作为“对策”,结合年龄的制约条件,对要求泡桐蓄积年平均生长量最大、林业经济收入最多、农业经济收入最多或总经济收入最多为四个经营目标。用人机对话形式输入以上要求,系统便自动运算,求出所要求的经济效果数值,也可显示决策后的具体指标,如胸径、树高、单株材积、立木蓄积、枝叶生物量及各种经济收入数值,以检验决策正确性。     

The greenhouse theory of climate change: a test by an inadvertent global experiment

Since the dawn of the industrial era, the atmospheric concentrations of several radiatively active gases have been increasing as a result of human activities. The radiative heating from this inadvertent experiment has driven the climate system out of equilibrium with the incoming solar energy. According to the greenhouse theory of climate change, the climate system will be restored to equilibrium by a warming of the surfacetroposphere system and a cooling of the stratosphere. The predicted changes, during the next few decades, could far exceed natural climate variations in historical times. Hence, the greenhouse theory of climate change has reached the crucial stage of verification. Surface warming as large as that predicted by models would be unprecedented during an interglacial period such as the present. The theory, its scope for verification, and the emerging complexities of the climate feedback mechanisms are discussed.     

农村人身保险在京郊养老体系中的发展探析

随着我国人口老龄化情况的不断加剧,养老问题解决已经迫在眉睫,而我国六成以上的老年人口分布在农村,所以农民养老问题尤显艰巨。随着计划生育政策的推行、经济社会结构的转型,家庭养老、土地养老的传统养老模式已经根本无法满足农村老年人口养老的需求,迫切需要发展农村养老保险,建立农村养老保障体系。虽然北京农村地区经济基础较为发达,但仅依靠政府财政也难以建立起较为完善的农村养老保险体系,需要商业人身保险发挥重要的补充作用,扩大覆盖面,提供多层次养老保障。     

“关中—天水经济区”视域下陕西关中农业产业链的构建研究

关中位于陕西腹部平原地区,由于农业土地资源较少,人口众多,而城市化发展速度较快,致使大量劳动力涌向城市,农村劳动力急剧流失,且农业生产规模小,机械化程度低,农业经济发展速度很慢,农民收入没有从根本上得到改善。在辨析现代农业、农业产业化和农业产业链的基础上,分析陕西关中农业产业链发展的现状和存在的问题,并在"关中—天水经济区"视角下,基于产业组织理论,提出构建陕西关中农业产业链的模式。     

Nobody farms here anymore: Livelihood diversification in the Amazonian community of Carvão,a historical perspective

Over the past 15 years income sources in the Amazonian community of Carvão have diversified to include government salaries, retirement and welfare benefits, and wages from an evolving informal service sector. These non-farm incomes are now more important to household incomes than the sale of agricultural products. Out of 80 households only three families were found to depend almost entirely on the sale of agricultural goods for cash income. Agriculture is still a part of most families’ livelihoods; however, production today is mainly a subsistence activity. Recent changes in Carvão are consistent with trends of livelihood diversification observed in rural societies across the globe. However, current research reveals that Carvão is different from other case studies in a number of ways. A history of livelihoods illustrates that residents in Carvão have always engaged in a range of activities, including farming, extractive activities, and wage labor. New incomes are the result of new jobs in the public sector and social policies benefiting the rural poor. In contrast to the literature on livelihood diversification, the decentralization of the federal government in Brazil has resulted in greater opportunities for rural income and employment. Consistent with recorded trends, research shows that small farmers in Carvão have down-sized agricultural production. Farmers cite low market prices (the result of vertical integration of local markets) as one cause of this decline. Residents, especially small farmers, interested in diversifying agricultural production are limited by inadequate extension services and credit, and younger residents seek public sector employment. Income diversification has increased livelihoods security; however, future livelihoods will depend on new economic growth. Given the stagnating public sector and a weak industrial sector, production geared toward growing urban markets is a viable means for further income generation in Carvão.     

覆膜对绿豆产量和主要农艺性状的影响

针对冀西北地区绿豆生产单产水平低、经济效益差的现状,以当前常规品种张家口鹦哥绿豆不覆膜种植为对照,研究了覆膜种类对张绿1号产量和主要农艺性状的影响。结果表明：覆膜可使绿豆产量增加10.6％～28.2％,覆黑膜较白膜增产幅度大;覆膜可增加绿豆千粒重和单株荚数,在一定程度上提高了绿豆的商品性;覆膜可明显提高经济收入,张绿1号覆黑膜较常规品种不覆膜种植增收6741元/hm 2。张绿1号覆黑膜将成为生产上主要推广的种植模式。     

Seabed materials

A large catalog of materials has been proposed as potential seabed resources, and some seabed materials such as hydrocarbons and tin already contribute to the world's economy. Scientific advances have increased our knowledge of other seabed prospects, but realization of their potential will be determined by their relative economic accessibility compared to rival resources on land. Examination of existing stocks of conventional resources, and of the economic process by which new resources are added, suggests that most potential sources of seabed materials will not be exploited in the near future. Strategic behavior in seabed materials development, however, implies that investment in exploration and R&D could proceed on a larger scale and at a more rapid pace than might be expected solely on the basis of apparent commercial potential.     

农村老年人健康信息素养现状及影响因素

[目的 /意义]本文旨在了解农村老年人健康信息素养的现状及其影响因素,并探讨提升老年人健康信息素养的方法和机制。[方法 /过程]本研究应用3阶段抽样,对60岁及以上的农村老年人进行入户问卷调查,共回收有效问卷1 222份。[结果 /结论]研究结果表明,农村老年人健康信息素养得分较低,其中健康信息认知维度得分最高,健康信息获取维度得分最低。受教育程度、智能手机使用时间、互联网使用时间、工作性质和健康状况是农村老年人健康信息素养的重要影响因素（P <0.05）。农村老年人最信任的健康信息来源是医务工作者,对网上信息难以评价和不太信任。因此,应当加强医务人员在老年人健康信息素养教育中的参与,缓解老年人使用智能手机、互联网的矛盾,以实现农村老年人健康信息素养的有效提升。     

黄河应急调水补偿的仿真计算

针对黄河应急调水对缓解下游缺水地区旱情的同时,也给上游的发电、灌溉、生态带来一定损失的问题,建立了应急调水补偿模拟仿真系统,应用该系统模拟了不同调水方案下的沿程水量变化、水电站发电损失、灌区农业灌溉损失、下游收益情况及补偿过程等,设计典型调水过程并对其进行模拟计算。结果表明,本系统基于信息技术,通过黄河信息门户实现分布式应用,具有良好的开放性和扩展性,可用以提高应急调水方案及补偿方案的合理性。     

我国农户收入及其差异的影响因素实证分析 ——基于收入决定方程和夏普里值分解方法

改革开放以来我国经济发展取得了巨大的成就,但其成果并未惠及全民。农户间的收入差距在不断扩大,这不仅加剧了农村贫困问题,削弱农户收入增长,而且对我国经济的可持续发展以及社会的和谐与稳定产生严重的影响。首先运用农户收入决定方程对江苏省、河南省和四川省抽样调查的566户农户的截面数据进行分析,确定影响农户收入的主要因素;其次,运用夏普里值分解方法分析了各显著因素对农户收入差异的贡献率。研究结果表明：农户家庭劳动力平均外出务工时间是影响农户收入增长及差异的最重要因素,劳动力平均受教育年限次之。基于上述结果认为加快农村非农产业发展、增加非农就业机会,加大财政对农村教育的投入、提供平等的受教育和培训机会,将有利于在持续增加农户收入的同时缩小农户间的收入差异。     

Characteristics and conflicts in Norwegian agriculture

This article raises the issue of the extent to which a single nation can develop a “national agricultural policy,” pursuing internal goals in agrarian development, goals that vary significantly from those of other industrialized countries. What are the conflicts arising from such a policy and how do these conflicts interfere with the general agricultural crisis of these countries? The Norwegian case is explored as an example of a blend of social-democratic and center-populist agricultural policies. The decision in 1975 by the Norwegian Parliament to establish the income level of farmers at the same level as workers is seen as an experiment. As agricultural policy, this new departure represented a deviation from the earlier policies of rationalization. The Social Democrats developed their new position as a result of internal and external pressure. A series of reforms financed by the new state incomes from oil production were undertaken, of which income equalization and a farm relief service were the most important. Most Norwegian farmers speak of the reform years as “the good years of escalation.” Equity was reached in 1982, but nevertheless several problems emerged: 1) the escalation of subsidized incomes led to overproduction and decreasing incomes from the market (after 1982), 2) the large budgetary transfers to agriculture caused a legitimation crisis, fueling the constituency of the right-wing Progress Party, 3) the large subsidies to agriculture contributed to the fiscal crisis of the state, 4) the problems mentioned above, contributed to the general crisis of the Norwegian Social Democracy which finds itself with dwindling support. The likely outcome of the present Norwegian farm crisis is the implementation of an agricultural policy that will protect the most vulnerable sector and open the more competitive sector to market forces.     

Off-farm employment and poverty alleviation in rural China

Two phenomena in the history of China's economic growth during the last four decades are the increase in the share of offfarm employment and the progress in poverty alleviation in rural China. Although both of them have been well documented in the literature, less is known about the linkage between the two. To better understand the role that off-farm employment has played in poverty alleviation in rural China is critically important not only for China but also for those countries that are trying to reduce poverty. Here, we examine the impact of off-farm employment on poverty alleviation in rural China. Using the data from two nationally representative household panel surveys(China National Rural Survey and China Rural Development Survey), this paper provides supporting evidence that off-farm employment contributes to poverty alleviation in rural China. Specifically, if household participation in off-farm employment increases by 10 percentage points, the likelihood for a nonpoor household to fall into poverty will decrease by 0.88 percentage point whereas the likelihood for a poor household to climb out of poverty will increase by 3.5 percentage points. In a word, off-employment can not only prevent rural residents to fall into poverty but also help those already in poverty climb out of it.     

Supply and demand for scientists and engineers: a national crisis in the making

Projections are analyzed for the future supply and demand of scientists and engineers. The demographics of the college-age population combined with estimates of the percentage of students who will pursue careers in science and engineering indicate significant shortfalls between supply and demand for the next several decades at both the baccalaureate and Ph.D. levels. If these projections are realized, the shortage of technical personnel will have a major impact on economic growth, international competitiveness, and national security. Various strategies for recruiting and retaining students in science and engineering are considered.     

频振式杀虫灯在烟草害虫防治中的应用研究

为了探索云南烟叶生产中害虫防治的有效方法,在火木龙现代烟草示范区利用频振式杀虫灯开展了烟草主要害虫防治示范试验,结果表明:该杀虫灯把杀虫工作日常化,能有效防止爆发大面积虫害;对蚜茧蜂、食蚜、蝇草蛉等天敌有一定的保护作用,对烟青虫、斜纹夜蛾、金龟子等害虫防效显著;投入成本低,控制面积大,操作简便;通过物理方法诱杀害虫,大大减少农药用量,同时不会使害虫产生抗药性,降低了烟叶农药残留,提高烟叶品质,减少对环境的污染,避免人畜中毒事件发生。这说明频振式杀虫灯具有较好的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益,可在烟草害虫防治中大面积推广使用。     

黑龙江垦区农业结构调整与农民农业收入增长问题的研究

基于线性函数模型,构建了1978-2008年黑龙江垦区农业结构变动与农民农业收入增长的模型,实证分析黑龙江垦区农业内部结构的变动与农民农业收人增长的关系,以及农、林、牧、渔产值与农民农业收入增长的关系.分析结果表明:农业结构调整是农民收人增长的重要原因,但反向因果关系不成立;畜牧业对农民农业人均收入的贡献率比较大,增大...     

广西“柑橘-绿肥-鹅”立体种养模式探索

果园立体种养模式将种植业与养殖业有机结合起来,可最大限度地提高果园产出率,增加农户经济收入.本研究介绍了广西“柑橘-绿肥-鹅”立体种养模式,详细描述了设施建设、柑橘栽培、绿肥种植、鹅饲养管理等技术要点,分析了该模式下的经济效益、社会效益及生态效益.     

重岗社区甜叶菊生产情况调查

甜叶菊有提高血糖、降低血压、促进新陈代谢的作用。本文总结了江苏省宿迁市泗洪县青阳镇重岗社区甜叶菊的栽培技术及实际应用中存在问题的解决方法。通过在农村广泛宣传和推广,努力探索套种、试种等田间推广模式,促进非农业生产的发展。2008年青阳镇重岗区共种植甜叶菊40余hm2,667m2产量150～200kg、收入2000～2500元、成本约500元,折合667m2纯收入1500～2000元。为了进一步推广甜叶菊的种植面积,不仅需要扩大示范带动、加强宣传引导工作,把甜叶菊生产当作一个产业来做,同时还要加强技术培训,提高广大菊农的种植管理水平。     

甘肃省农村金融发展与农村经济增长关系的研究

基于灰色关联分析法,对甘肃省1996-2004年农村金融发展与农村经济增长的关系做了实证研究.结果表明:农村金融发展与农村经济增长和农民收入具有显著相关性,而与乡镇企业发展相关性不显著,其中农村金融贷款规模是影响农村经济增长的主要因素,农业贷款对农民收入的支持力度比较大.     

粤澳农产品供应链质量安全风险控制研究

农产品质量安全是一个关系到城乡居民消费安全、农业长远发展和农民增收、经济增长与社会稳定的全局性问题。供澳农产品质量安全具有特殊的政治意义和经济意义,粤澳农产品供应链质量安全总体乐观,但仍存在质量安全追溯困难、"水客"现象严重及缺乏统一的质量安全标准等风险隐患。建议采取创新农产品封闭供应链、构建质量安全可追溯体系、实施质量安全价格补贴机制、统一质量安全标准体系、整治"水客"现象等质量安全风险控制策略。