Ecological Carrying Capacity Prediction of Huainan City Based on GM–BP Neural Network

Evaluation of ecological carrying capacity is an important method of analyzing regional sustainable development, study on ecological carrying capacity is to settle the contradictions between resource and environment, and it is a significant basis for realizing regional sustainable development. This paper, on the basis of the academician Sun Tiehang's "unification of three" for the eco-city construction, established ecological carrying capacity evaluation indexes for the traditional industrial and mining city—Huainan City; and applied GM–BP neural network coupling model for the dynamic evolution and prediction of ecological carrying capacity of Huainan City in the future decade. The results showed that ecological carrying capacity index of Huainan would be 2.13 by 2025, higher than the loadable state 1, so the ecological carrying capacity would keep in the over-loaded level, but the over-loaded degree would be lower than the current. Carrying capacity of arable land, energy and water resources contribute greatly to the improvement of ecological carrying capacity, thus it is imperative to adjust this unreasonable and unsustainable ecological consumption relationship, enhance environmental protection awareness and high-efficiency utilization of resources, and take an energy-saving and intensive development path.     

基于能值生态足迹的陕川渝三地可持续性发展对比分析

能值生态足迹法（EEF）是一种基于生态足迹的对区域生态系统的可持续发展状况予以评估的能值分析方法。以陕川渝三省（市）为研究对象,利用人均能值生态承载力和人均能值生态足迹以及万元GDP对2007年三地生态经济系统可持续状况进行了分析,并就陕川渝区域之间合作的优先性从可持续发展的角度予以客观评价。结果表明：2007年陕川渝三地的能值生态赤字分别为3.604hm2、1.467hm2、1.268hm2,万元GDP生态足迹分别为3.162hm2、2.31hm2、1.632hm2;三地均处于不可持续发展状况,且陕西的情况最为严重,资源利用效率最低;陕川渝三地的发展各自面临一定的资源短缺问题,依靠进口或者过度开发来为维持社会经济的高速发展,势必会引发一系列的生态问题,在新的时期原有的以环境为代价发展经济的传统发展模式遇到了挑战,只有因地适宜地对这种模式进行优化调整,才会使陕川渝各地的发展持续化,从而推动西部发展。     

基于P-S-R框架模型试点研究高寒地区生态承载力——以甘肃省迭部县为例

全面客观评价生态资源承载能力,进而为区域可持续发展提供理论依据。以甘肃省迭部县为例,首先,采用压力-状态-响应(P-S-R)模型构建生态承载力评估指标体系,运用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)确定各指标权重,评估生态环境承载力现状;其次,在生态功能区层面对迭部县水源涵养功能及生物多样性功能进行评价;最后,对生态承载力状况进行成因解析。研究结果表明：（1）迭部县整体生态承载力得分为0.239,处于“较强”承载力状态,构成整体生态承载力的生态弹性力、资源和环境承载力和人类社会影响力得分分别为0.222、0.062和0.063。（2）2016年,迭部县单位面积水源涵养量为111.76 mm,水源涵养功能处于“高”状态,其中,水源涵养功能较高地区主要集中在以草地和针阔混交林为主的区域。（3）自然栖息地面积占迭部县总面积的83.67%,其自然栖息质量指数(Natural Habitant Quality Index,NHQI)处于“高”状态。（4）从自然和经济2个因素进行分析,发现迭部县生态环境条件较好,但林草地面积已呈现出逐渐减少状态,因此需要通过合理科学的开发引导,发展文化旅游事业,推动迭部县的可持续发展。     

Research on the Regional Ecological Environment Evaluation and Application under the Influence of the Severe Earthquake Disaster

To conduct the ecological restoration and reconstruction of disaster areas after the severe earthquake, such as Wenchuan Earthquake and Lushan Earthquake, this article uses region al ecological environment evaluation and ecological footprint to construct a quantitative analysis model on the basis of ecololgical environment indexes in Mianzhu City. Through this model, resource status of the regional environment in Mianzhu is analyzed, as well as the ecological capacity and the ecological security. Based on the evaluation and analysis, this paper provides multi-path development strategies of ecological restoration and sustainable development of human settlements after the earthquake.     

基于GIS和PSR模型的生态环境承载力时空差异研究——以海南省为例

生态环境承载力是区域可持续发展研究的重要内容。本文结合海南省社会、经济、环境现状,构建压力-状态-响应（P-S-R）模型,选取27个指标构建海南省生态环境承载力评价指标体系,采用GIS空间分析法和模糊综合评价法,对海南省18个市县生态环境承载力的时空差异进行研究。研究结果表明：海南省生态环境状况较好,生态环境承载力的整体水平较高。随着社会经济的发展,绝大部分市县的I级隶属度值不断增大,生态环境承载力整体呈现不断上升的趋势。从各市县的对比分析来看,海南省各市县的生态环境承载力呈现东部-中西部-北部递减的态势。     

浙江省新型农村社会养老保障制度可持续发展研究 - 以德清县为例

摘 要：为了研究浙江省新型农村社会养老保障制度的可持续发展问题,通过实证研究的方法对德清县新型农村社会养老保障制度的现状及特点进行了分析,研究结果表明,影响德清县新型农村社会养老保障制度可持续发展的关键因素为缴费档次低及城乡差距大、基金保值增值困难、政府财政支付能力不足、“父母-子女”捆绑式的参保方式、经办服务能力及其制度的稳定性不高5个因素。通过对这5个因素进行系统分析,提出了多方筹措及建立稳定资金库、完善基金监管机制及加强投资管理等建议措施。     

基于SWOT分析的河南省城镇化发展策略研究

研究旨在分析河南省现阶段城镇化的发展水平,了解其优势及问题所在,在此基础上得出未来城镇化发展的相关策略,以推动其持续健康发展。以河南省城镇化进入历史转型期为切入点,运用SWOT分析方法,明确了当前的城镇化建设在历史文化、区位交通及国家政策等方面拥有显著优势,并揭示了城镇化进程中存在的诸多问题：城乡发展不均衡、基础设施建设及产业发展滞后、“城市病”频发及人口素质和资源环境的制约等。以此为依据,提出未来河南省的城镇化建设应集中力量做好四件事：以“新三化”协调发展助推新型城镇化建设;加快城乡一体化建设,全力缩小城乡差距;加大生态环境保护力度,追求可持续发展的新型城镇化;注重农村人口素质提升,助力城镇化转型升级。     

县域可持续发展能力评价——以河南省温县为例

从可持续发展的角度,建立了县域可持续发展评价框架。以温县为例,构建出如下4个系统、15个指标的县域可持续发展指标体系,按照温县提出的发展目标,利用协调度模型对温县可持续发展能力做出了评价,并对该县的发展程度和存在的问题做了具体分析。     

鄱阳湖生态经济区可持续发展能力测度研究?

对鄱阳湖生态经济区的可持续发展能力进行排序,为区域更好地实现生态与经济的协调发展,为落实国家战略提供决策参考。首先,构建以生态支撑、经济支撑、社会支撑三大系统为基础的鄱阳湖生态经济区可持续发展能力评价指标体系,并以鄱阳湖生态经济区25个主要县域为研究具体区域,使用层次分析法和主成分分析法进行测度。结果表明,可持续发展生态支撑能力排名靠前的县域,综合可持续发展能力排名一般靠前;以牺牲生态支撑来发展经济的县域则综合可持续发展能力较低。     

The comparative study of China's mega‐city regions: A perspective of competitiveness

Mega‐city regions (MCRs) have emerged as the main spatial form of China's new urbanization strategy and become the basic spatial units participating in global and regional competition. However, MCRs are not equally capable of boosting regional economic development due to their different levels of development. Therefore, this paper adopts the concept of competitiveness as both a theoretical framework and an empirical model to evaluate the development status of China's MCRs. Based on a review of the existing literature, this paper proposes a multi‐tier evaluation system to calculate the competitiveness of 13 MCRs. The chosen indicators come from the six perspectives of economic development, human resources, infrastructural accessibility, integration into the global economy, capacity for scientific and technological innovation, and sustainable development. The results show that there are great disparities and regional inequalities in competitiveness across different MCRs. The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan MCRs are the first‐tier MCRs with the highest levels of development and have significant global influence as well. Chengdu–Chongqing, Shandong Peninsula, South‐central Liaoning, and Wuhan belong to the second‐tier of MCRs that show partial advantages and have significant regional influence. The remaining regions belong to the third‐ or fourth‐tier of MCRs that have relatively weak competitiveness. The competitiveness of MCRs largely depends on the concentration of core elements in core cities.     

蜀南竹海旅游环境容量的测算及分析

旅游环境容量的研究能为区域旅游开发和管理提供科学依据。以蜀南竹海为例,通过实地走访获取有关数据,从旅游生态、设施、空间以及社会环境容量4 个方面分别对该景区的旅游环境容量进行计算,结果表明：社会环境容量（9150 人次/日）最大,生态环境容量（7766 人次/日）次之,空间环境容量（4908 人次/日）和设施环境容量（4000 人次/日）相当,结合木桶原则和专家赋分权重,估算出蜀南竹海旅游环境容量为276 万人/年,与近期景区游客接待量相比,仍有较大挖掘潜力。为此,结合景区实际,从鼓励景区内使用公共交通工具、加强垃圾分类管理、优化旅游线路、实行景区弹性门票价格等方面,提出了可行性建议,为实现景区旅游业的可持续发展提供理论参考。     

干旱绿洲农业区社会-经济-自然复合生态系统可持续发展综合评价

为了配合石羊河流域治理规划,确切分析绿洲农业区的可持续发展状况,本研究基于层次分析法基本原则,在征求专家意见的基础上构建了干旱绿洲农业区社会-经济-自然复合生态系统可持续发展评价指标体系,并通过评价模型构建对典型干旱绿洲农业区武威市1957—2008年的生态系统可持续发展进行评价研究。结果表明：（1）1957—2008年,研究区资源环境指数随时间变化呈波动下降趋势,而经济发展和社会人文指数随时间均呈波动增长的趋势;（2）武威地区可持续发展综合指数呈波动上升趋势,经历了极弱可持续发展阶段、弱可持续发展阶段和中等可持续发展阶段。但综合来看,区域可持续发展的水平还较低,区域生态经济的发展是建立在消耗自然资源基础之上。     

典型农牧区新农村发展影响因素及模式选择——以内蒙古鄂尔多斯市乌审旗为例

中国实施可持续发展战略,农业与农村既是基础和优先领域,也是最具挑战和难度最大所在。农牧地区的新农村发展既是我国新农村建设的重要组成部分,也是相对薄弱的环节。内蒙古自治区乌审旗是典型的农牧地区,全旗各乡镇（苏木）在区域的差异性、功能的主导性和发展的制约性（简称“三性”）等方面具有不同特征,这对于全旗新农村建设具有直接的影响。基于乌审旗不同乡镇（苏木）“三性”的分析,乌审旗新农村发展的主要模式为：工业企业带动模式、城镇建设带动模式、现代农业带动模式、生态牧业带动模式、休闲旅游带动模式、专业市场带动模式。     

The Dynamic Conservation Strategy of Central Historic Block in Baoding

Under the traditional static protection mode that advocates controlling and stresses no change to the original, the central historic block in Baoding is facing some new problems such as the setting back of physical environment, isolation from the urban development and imbalance of the regional economical development. Based on investigation and analysis, the goals and dynamic conservation strategy were proposed for central historic block. The strategy took the dynamic conservation theory, in which the holistic protection and sustainable development were the features, as theoretic tool. And from urban planning, urban administration, society economic growth, urban space design and historic buildings protection aspects, the relationship between protection, renaissance and development were studied with the dynamic conservation strategy.     

Detecting the intellectual pathway of resilience thinking in urban and regional studies: A critical reflection on resilience literature

Confronted with increasing natural and anthropogenic crises, sustainable urban and regional development requires a sound understanding of how cities and regions respond to those crises and how that response shapes their continued development. The conceptual ambiguity and missing link among varied perspectives of resilience studies have given rise to a sneaking suspicion about the contribution of resilience thinking. By conducting a network analysis of 1,274 papers published between 1991 and 2019 using CiteSpace, we detect and visualize the intellectual pathway of resilience thinking and argue for its malleability to deepen our understanding about human-environment dynamics. Three major research clusters were identified: adaptive capacity of ecosystems, regional variation in economic resilience, and social resilience of disadvantaged communities. Resistance and recovery of systems are the key concerns in the first two clusters, whereas social resilience emphasizes opportunities and processes of restructuring rather than returning to the pre-crisis status. The extension of resilience thinking to the social realm is a promising area for future research. It calls for a shift of epistemology from the deterministic structure-function hypothesis which is place-less toward a situated understanding of context, relation, and human adaptation despite the methodological challenges ahead.     

农业高新技术产业示范园的建设成效及发展思考——以湖北省恩施州为例

为促进湖北省恩施州农业高新技术产业示范园稳定、健康、可持续发展,在总结中国农业科技园区发展态势的基础上,阐述了恩施州农业高新技术产业示范园建设取得的成效、经验和对区域农业科技创新发挥的重要作用及存在的问题,提出了恩施州农业高新技术产业示范园今后的发展思路。     

基于模糊物元的重庆市资源环境承载力动态评价研究

通过对重庆市资源环境承载力进行综合评价,为重庆市有效保护生态环境和可持续发展政策的制定等提供决策依据。从资源环境支撑系统、资源环境经济系统、资源环境耗散系统、资源环境保育系统4个维度构建资源环境承载力评价指标体系,运用模糊物元模型对2002—2013年重庆市资源环境承载力进行评价分析。评价结果表明,2002—2013年重庆市资源环境承载力水平总体上呈上升趋势,社会经济发展与资源环境保护不断协调,区域可持续发展水平不断提高。该结果为重庆市资源环境开发、保护和可持续发展政策的制定提供了依据。     

Laos' hydropower development and cross‐border power trade in the Lower Mekong Basin: A discourse analysis

Increasing demands for energy to boost the Mekong economies have attracted the keen interest of riparian countries for hydropower development. This is evidenced by extensive investment in hydropower projects across the region over the last few decades. Drawing on interviews with key stakeholders, including officials from Ministry of Energy and Mines, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, private sector actors, civil society organisations and academics, as well as secondary data from public and policy resources, this paper aims to examine how the government of Laos' (GoL) decisions in hydropower development are influenced by regional energy dynamics, and how these shape the country's future energy development. The paper argues that the GoL's decisions on hydropower development are highly dilemmatic, given the current limited institutional capacity in hydropower governance and the accelerating evolution of alternative energy in neighbouring countries. While uncertainty in power markets is recognised, this places greater pressure on new hydropower projects as to how much power could be sufficiently produced and exported. The paper calls for GoL's policy considerations on the development and planning of alternative energy to secure the sustainable and equitable use of water resources as stipulated in the 1995 Mekong Agreement.     

城市文化主题公园景观设计探析

城市文化主题公园的建设是诠释城市文化形象、地域特色、生态环境的重要途径。简述城市文化主题公园建设意义,总结了城市文化主题公园景观设计原则与特性,并结合宝鸡市周礼文化主题公园景观营造的实例进行梳理和分析,探讨文化内涵和公园本体景观营造在文化主题公园中的灵魂和核心地位,对中国中小城市主题公园开发、特色建设以及可持续发展提供创新思路,对其文化主题公园文化表达及景观营造具有理论价值和现实作用。     

日照农村和农业旅游开发研究

中国农业旅游发展较晚,目前关于农业旅游的研究尚不成熟。为了解决“三农”问题和实现可持续发展,必须做好农村和农业旅游开发研究。通过对日照市所辖农村区域旅游资源和发展现状的调研,提出农村和农业旅游开发必须树立大农村旅游观念,充分利用和深入挖掘当地旅游资源,采取有效措施做好农村区域旅游规划和旅游目的地规划、旅游产品策划和投融资,以保证旅游开发顺利进行和科学运营,从而实现可持续发展。