On the surveillance for animal diseases in small herds

Small herds may present a problem in surveillance for infectious animal diseases because typical levels of a within-herd design prevalence are not directly applicable. We suggest a definition of small herds as those smaller than 2/(within-herd design prevalence) on the basis that such herds would be expected to have less than two (i.e. only one) infected animals. Consequently, the probability of detecting small herds cannot be improved by choosing a larger sample size within the herd. We derive necessary sample sizes of herds and the probability (“confidence”) of detecting disease within a stratum of small herds, given the among-herd design prevalence and test diagnostic sensitivity. Both a binomial model and a Poisson model can be used to establish the confidence for a given sample size of herds (and vice versa). The results of a simulation study suggest that the Poisson model provides more conservative (lower) estimates of the confidence for a given sample size and should therefore be preferred.     

Probability of freedom from disease after the first detection and eradication of PRRS in Sweden: Scenario-tree modelling of the surveillance system

In July 2007, PRRS was detected for the first time in Sweden. A total of eight positive herds were identified and various measures were taken to eradicate the disease, including restrictions and slaughter of infected herds. Subsequently, both active and passive surveillance activities were undertaken. This study describes stochastic scenario-tree modelling of all the various surveillance system components, to estimate the current probability that Sweden is free from PRRS. The model includes all actions taken after the first positive herd was detected. The surveillance system components included in the model were as follows: investigations undertaken in association with the outbreak, a serological study based on samples collected at slaughter, samples collected in the national PRRS surveillance programme and passive clinical surveillance. The probability of freedom was estimated in time steps of 1 month, from July to December 2007. After each time step, the calculated posterior probability of freedom from the previous month, combined with the probability of introduction, was used as a prior probability for the next month.The result from the model showed a 99.8% probability that Sweden was free from PRRS at the end of December 2007. The estimated total sensitivity of the surveillance system varied between 81.2% and 94.3% and was highest during the first months after the outbreak. For sensitivity analysis purposes, the model was also applied using higher risks of introduction. However, this did not make considerable difference to the final estimates.     

Sense and sensitivity--designing surveys based on an imperfect test

Designing a survey to detect the presence of a disease is complicated if the test used to detect the disease has non-perfect sensitivity and specificity. This paper gives two new approximations that simplify such a task. The first gives the cumulative probability distribution of the number of apparently diseased animals detected in the survey and the second gives the probability that no diseased animals are detected if the test used has 100% specificity. Both approximations can be used to determine confidence limits for the true prevalence.

The main purpose of the approximations is to determine the number of animals that need to be tested to be confident that a herd is free of disease, and then to determine the number of herds that need to be tested to demonstrate area freedom. One approach to such an area survey has been to classify each herd as diseased or not based on the number of reactors found in the herd, and then to use the number of herds classified as diseased to determine the area’s status. The paper points out that basing the decision simply on the magnitude of the maximum observed within-herd reactor proportion results in a more accurate survey for the same number of animals and herds tested.     

Adapting a scenario tree model for freedom from disease as surveillance progresses: The Canadian notifiable avian influenza model

Scenario tree models with temporal discounting have been applied in four continents to support claims of freedom from animal disease. Recently, a second (new) model was developed for the same population and disease. This is a natural development because surveillance is a dynamic process that needs to adapt to changing circumstances – the difficulty is the justification for, documentation of, presentation of and the acceptance of the changes.     

不同剂型新城疫-禽流感二联灭活疫苗免疫SPF鸡后抗体水平对比试验

不同剂型的佐剂对疫苗的免疫效果有较大的影响,本试验旨在对比不同剂型佐剂的新城疫-禽流感(简称"新-流")二联灭活疫苗的免疫效果,从而为生产上选择最佳剂型佐剂应用于新城疫-禽流流感二联灭活疫苗提供依据。分别将油包水型、水包油型、水包油包水型佐剂与新城疫及禽流感灭活抗原乳化成不同剂型的新城疫-禽流感(H9亚型,HP株)二联灭活疫苗,将这三种不同剂型的新城疫-禽流感(H9亚型,HP株)二联灭活疫苗分别免疫一组7日龄SPF鸡。每羽颈部皮下注射0.2 m L,同时设一组未免7日龄SPF鸡作为对照组,各免疫组与对照组SPF鸡于免疫组免后6、10、15、21、28、35 d进行采血,检测新城疫与禽流感抗体水平。结果表明:免疫油包水型疫苗组SPF鸡免疫后新城疫与禽流感抗体上升最快,在免后10、15、21、28、35 d的新城疫与禽流感抗体也最高,其次是免疫水包油包水型的,而免疫水包油型疫苗组的SPF鸡新城疫与禽流感抗体上升最慢,而且在免后10、15、21、28、35 d的新城疫与禽流感抗体也最低。此外,从各免疫组可以看出,在免后6 d时新城疫抗体已开始产生,在1log2以下,而禽流感抗体仍未产生。可见免疫新-流二联苗后,新城疫抗体比禽流感抗体更早产生,油包水型新-流二联苗的免后抗体高于水包油包水及水包油型,而且能持续刺激机体产生高水平抗体,更具优势。