Contribution of small glaciers to global sea level

Observed long-term changes in glacier volume and hydrometeorological mass balance models yield data on the transfer of water from glaciers, excluding those in Greenland and Antarctica, to the oceans. The average observed volume change for the period 1900 to 1961 is scaled to a global average by use of the seasonal amplitude of the mass balance. These data are used to calibrate the models to estimate the changing contribution of glaciers to sea level for the period 1884 to 1975. Although the error band is large, these glaciers appear to account for a third to half of observed rise in sea level, approximately that fraction not explained by thermal expansion of the ocean.     

High plant diversity in Eocene South America: evidence from Patagonia

Tropical South America has the highest plant diversity of any region today, but this richness is usually characterized as a geologically recent development (Neogene or Pleistocene). From caldera-lake beds exposed at Laguna del Hunco in Patagonia, Argentina, paleolatitude approximately 47 degrees S, we report 102 leaf species. Radioisotopic and paleomagnetic analyses indicate that the flora was deposited 52 million years ago, the time of the early Eocene climatic optimum, when tropical plant taxa and warm, equable climates reached middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Adjusted for sample size, observed richness exceeds that of any other Eocene leaf flora, supporting an ancient history of high plant diversity in warm areas of South America.     

Rapid rise of sea level 19,000 years ago and its global implications

Evidence from the Irish Sea basin supports the existence of an abrupt rise in sea level (meltwater pulse) at 19,000 years before the present (B.P.). Climate records indicate a large reduction in the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water formation and attendant cooling of the North Atlantic at this time, indicating a source of the meltwater pulse from one or more Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Warming of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the Southern Hemisphere also began at 19,000 years B.P. These responses identify mechanisms responsible for the propagation of deglacial climate signals to the Southern Hemisphere and tropics while maintaining a cold climate in the Northern Hemisphere.     

The rise of global mean sea level as an indication of climate change

Rising mean sea level, it is proposed, is a significant indicator of global climate change. The principal factors that can have contributed to the observed increases of global mean sea level in recent decades are thermal expansion of the oceans and the discharge of polar ice sheets. Calculations indicate that thermal expansion cannot be the sole factor responsible for the observed rise in sea level over the last 40 years; significant discharges of polar ice must also be occurring. Global warming, due in some degree presumably to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, has been opposed by the extraction of heat necessary to melt the discharged ice. During the past 40 years more than 50,000 cubic kilometers of ice has been discharged and has melted, reducing the surface warming that might otherwise have occurred by as much as a factor of 2. The transfer of mass from the polar regions to a thin spherical shell covering all the oceans should have increased the earth's moment of inertia and correspondingly reduced the speed of rotation by about 1.5 parts in 10(8). This accounts for about three quarters of the observed fractional reduction in the earth's angular velocity since 1940. Monitoring of global mean sea level, ocean surface temperatures, and the earth's speed of rotation should be complemented by monitoring of the polar ice sheets, as is now possible by satellite altimetry. All parts of the puzzle need to be examined in order that a consistent picture emerge.     

Ocean warming and sea level rise along the southwest u.s. Coast

Hydrographic time-series data recorded during the past 42 years in the upper 500 meters off the coast of southern California indicate that temperatures have increased by 0.8 degrees C uniformly in the upper 100 meters and that temperatures have risen significantly to depths of about 300 meters. The effect of warming the surface layer of the ocean and there by expanding the water column has been to raise sea level by 0.9 +/- 0.2 millimeter per year. Tide gauge records along the coast are coherent with steric height and show upward trends in sea level that vary from about 1 to 3 millimeters per year.     

Forecasting fire season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies

Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. We investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in fire activity in South America and sea surface temperatures. We found that the Oceanic Ni?o Index was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model to forecast regional fire season severity with lead times of 3 to 5 months. Our approach may contribute to the development of an early warning system for anticipating the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for climate and air quality.     

Milankovitch forcing of the last interglacial sea level

During the last interglacial, sea level was as high as present, 4000 to 6000 years before peak Northern Hemisphere insolation receipt 126,000 years ago. The sea-level results are shown to be consistent with climate models, which simulate a 3 degrees to 4 degrees C July temperature increase from 140,000 to 130,000 years ago in high latitudes, with all Northern Hemisphere land areas being warmer than present by 130,000 years ago. The early warming occurs because obliquity peaked earlier than precession and because precession values were greater than present before peak precessional forcing occurred. These results indicate that a fuller understanding of the Milankovitch-climate connection requires consideration of fields other than just insolation forcing at 65 degrees N.     

Global sea level trend in the past century

Data derived from tide-gauge stations throughout the world indicate that the mean sea level rose by about 12 centimeters in the past century. The sea level change has a high correlation with the trend of global surface air temperature. A large part of the sea level rise can be accounted for in terms of the thermal expansion of the upper layers of the ocean. The results also represent weak indirect evidence for a net melting of the continental ice sheets.     

Sustaining sustainable agriculture: The rise and fall of the Fund for Rural America

Sustainable agriculture has lately madesignificant inroads into US agricultural policydiscourse. An examination of the ``life cycle' of theFund for Rural America, a component of the 1996 farmbill, provides an example of the complex and contestedways in which the goals of sustainable agriculture areadvocated, negotiated, and implemented at the level ofnational policy, in the context of the evolvingpolitical and institutional arrangements of Americanagricultural policy. The Fund, with its relativelylarge endowment of $100 million annually, and itsexplicit emphasis on alternative agriculture research,is emblematic of both the growing politicaleffectiveness of the alternative agriculture movementand the increasing institutionalization of alternativeagriculture representatives in Federal agencies. Theuntimely demise of the Fund in the appropriationsprocess, however, illustrates the extent to whichcertain key spaces within the state remain outsidesustainable agriculture's broadening sphere ofinfluence. This suggests that while some aspects ofthe movement's organizing strategy are indeedeffective, some may need to be rethought in light ofthe experience with the FRA.     

A transient rise in tropical sea surface temperature during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) has been attributed to a rapid rise in greenhouse gas levels. If so, warming should have occurred at all latitudes, although amplified toward the poles. Existing records reveal an increase in high-latitude sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (8 degrees to 10 degrees C) and in bottom water temperatures (4 degrees to 5 degrees C). To date, however, the character of the tropical SST response during this event remains unconstrained. Here we address this deficiency by using paired oxygen isotope and minor element (magnesium/calcium) ratios of planktonic foraminifera from a tropical Pacific core to estimate changes in SST. Using mixed-layer foraminifera, we found that the combined proxies imply a 4 degrees to 5 degrees C rise in Pacific SST during the PETM. These results would necessitate a rise in atmospheric pCO2 to levels three to four times as high as those estimated for the late Paleocene.     

Rapid wastage of Alaska glaciers and their contribution to rising sea level

We have used airborne laser altimetry to estimate volume changes of 67 glaciers in Alaska from the mid-1950s to the mid-1990s. The average rate of thickness change of these glaciers was -0.52 m/year. Extrapolation to all glaciers in Alaska yields an estimated total annual volume change of -52 +/- 15 km3/year (water equivalent), equivalent to a rise in sea level (SLE) of 0.14 +/- 0.04 mm/year. Repeat measurements of 28 glaciers from the mid-1990s to 2000-2001 suggest an increased average rate of thinning, -1.8 m/year. This leads to an extrapolated annual volume loss from Alaska glaciers equal to -96 +/- 35 km3/year, or 0.27 +/- 0.10 mm/year SLE, during the past decade. These recent losses are nearly double the estimated annual loss from the entire Greenland Ice Sheet during the same time period and are much higher than previously published loss estimates for Alaska glaciers. They form the largest glaciological contribution to rising sea level yet measured.     

Ice volume and sea level during the last interglacial

During the last interglacial period, ~125,000 years ago, sea level was at least several meters higher than at present, with substantial variability observed for peak sea level at geographically diverse sites. Speculation that the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsed during the last interglacial period has drawn particular interest to understanding climate and ice-sheet dynamics during this time interval. We provide an internally consistent database of coral U-Th ages to assess last interglacial sea-level observations in the context of isostatic modeling and stratigraphic evidence. These data indicate that global (eustatic) sea level peaked 5.5 to 9 meters above present sea level, requiring smaller ice sheets in both Greenland and Antarctica relative to today and indicating strong sea-level sensitivity to small changes in radiative forcing.     

Early warming of tropical South America at the last glacial-interglacial transition

Glaciation in the humid tropical Andes is a sensitive indicator of mean annual temperature. Here, we present sedimentological data from lakes beyond the glacial limit in the tropical Andes indicating that deglaciation from the Last Glacial Maximum led substantial warming at high northern latitudes. Deglaciation from glacial maximum positions at Lake Titicaca, Peru/Bolivia (16 degrees S), and Lake Junin, Peru (11 degrees S), occurred 22,000 to 19,500 calendar years before the present, several thousand years before the B?lling-Aller?d warming of the Northern Hemisphere and deglaciation of the Sierra Nevada, United States (36.5 degrees to 38 degrees N). The tropical Andes deglaciated while climatic conditions remained regionally wet, which reflects the dominant control of mean annual temperature on tropical glaciation.     

Vertebrate evidence of a low sea level in the middle pliocene

Marine and untransported terrestrial vertebrates of Middle Pliocene (Hemphillian) age occur together in well-sorted, sandy, phosphatic gravels at an elevation of 1.8 to 3 meters in Manatee County, Florida. If no crustal warping of the Late Cenozoic age has occurred in this part of Florida (as investigators generally agree), the sea must have approached its present level 4 to 7 million years ago.     

美国·韩国及台湾农业现代化对我们的启示

发达国家和地区解决农业现代化问题的经验是一笔宝贵的世界遗产,值得仔细地发掘和整理,为我们所用。以美国、台湾和韩国为例分别进行了研究。     

越南南定省交水县交善乡对海平面上升的家庭和社区应对经验和对策

【目的】通过收集社会经济学数据,评估居民和社区对海平面上升的适应能力,评估海平面上升的负面影响及其对策,确定应对海平面上升备用对策。【方法】在越南南定省交水县交善乡选择99户居民,分成3组,采用半问卷调查、面谈、家庭群组讨论、重要人物访谈以及当地居民非正式会谈等方法进行调查。【结果】海平面上升已对当地社区造成了极大的负面影响,如作物产量降低、土地流失、盐碱地面积增加、基础设施损坏等。当地社区和居民已经意识到海平面上升的负面影响,并采取了各种应对方法。改变经济结构、选择适宜的作物品种、把水产养殖地转给家庭、鼓励渔民成立渔业合作社并建立早期预警系统是应对海平面上升的主要对策。【结论】应根据潮汐节律和台风、暴风雨发生等所确定的水面上升规律,采取不同的应对策略和方法,以减少海平面上升造成的破坏和损失。     

越南南定省交水县交善乡对海平面上升的家庭和社区应对经验和对策

[目的]通过收集社会经济学数据,评估居民和社区对海平面上升的适应能力,评估海平面上升的负面影响及其对策,确定应对海平面上升备用对策.[方法]在越南南定省交水县交善乡选择99户居民,分成3组,采用半问卷调查、面谈、家庭群组讨论、重要人物访谈以及当地居民非正式会谈等方法进行调查.[结果]海平面上升已对当地社区造成了极大的负面影响,如作物产量降低、土地流失、盐碱地面积增加、基础设施损坏等.当地社区和居民已经意识到海平面上升的负面影响,并采取了各种应对方法.改变经济结构、选择适宜的作物品种、把水产养殖地转给家庭、鼓励渔民成立渔业合作社并建立早期预警系统是应对海平面上升的主要对策.[结论]应根据潮汐节律和台风、暴风雨发生等所确定的水面上升规律,采取不同的应对策略和方法,以减少海平面上升造成的破坏和损失.