Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.     

温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展

IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）在第25次会议上决定,本身不再开发情景,而由专业的研究团队承担起未来第五次评估报告（AR5）所需要的开发情景任务,同时建议新情景用典型浓度路径RCPs来表示,以加速综合情景的开发进程,使气候模型同时能模拟排放情景。本文对此进行了介绍,并建议发展中国家和经济转轨国家更多的参与到新情景和新模型的开发中来,以推进农业气候变化影响评估、支持温室气体排放总量和排放权分配谈判的科学研究。     

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on the US Agricultural Exports

Climate change is expected to have substantial effects on agricultural productivity worldwide. However, these impacts will differ across commodities, locations and time periods. As a result, landowners will see changes in relative returns that are likely to induce modifications in production practices and land allocation. In addition, regional variations in impacts can alter relative competitiveness across countries and lead to adjustments in international trade patterns. Thus in climate change impact studies it is likely useful to account for worldwide productivity effects. In this study, we investigate the implications of considering rest of world climate impacts on projections of the US agricultural exports. We chose to focus on the US because it is one of the largest agricultural exporters. To conduct our analyses, we consider four alternative climate scenarios, both with and without rest of world climate change impacts. Our results show that considering/ignoring rest of world climate impacts causes significant changes in the US production and exports projections. Thus we feel climate change impact studies should account not only for climate impacts in the country of focus but also on productivity in the rest of the world in order to capture effects on commodity markets and trade potential.     

The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.     

The future for fisheries

Formal analyses of long-term global marine fisheries prospects have yet to be performed, because fisheries research focuses on local, species-specific management issues. Extrapolation of present trends implies expansion of bottom fisheries into deeper waters, serious impact on biodiversity, and declining global catches, the last possibly aggravated by fuel cost increases. Examination of four scenarios, covering various societal development choices, suggests that the negative trends now besetting fisheries can be turned around, and their supporting ecosystems rebuilt, at least partly.     

The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers

Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.     

基于OWA多属性决策的生态系统服务最优保护区选择研究——以渭河流域（关天段）为例

【目的】 通过对生物多样性、固碳、产水以及文化四类生态系统服务进行测算,使用多属性决策方法进行区域最优保护范围的选取,为研究区生态平衡的维护及生态建设研究提供理论依据。【方法】 以渭河流域关中-天水经济区（关天段）为研究区,通过InVEST模型测算生物多样性及固碳服务,SWAT模型划分子流域并计算产水服务以及SoLVES模型量化文化服务,在此基础上利用OWA（Ordered Weighted Averaged,有序加权平均）多属性决策方法建立11种情景,筛选出优先保护区。【结果】 （1）研究区在子流域尺度上产水量分布不均,整体情况为东部最高,中部地区小于西部地区,平均产水量约为95 mm;子流域固碳量范围为5.041—10.284 t·hm ^-2,单位面积固碳量较高的子流域多为秦岭地区,位于关中平原地区的子流域是城市聚集地区,建设用地密集的区域碳储存十分受限;生物多样性主要由生境质量指标衡量,研究区生境质量范围0.222—0.921,关中平原地区植被覆盖较少,人类活动频繁和城市发展导致威胁因子分布密集,因此生境质量较低,平均值在0.22左右,秦岭地区属于高植被覆盖且距离生境威胁因子较远,生态适宜性高且生物多样性保持良好;研究区文化价值总指数1.298—5.667,审美和精神价值集中在森林公园及秦岭山脉地区,但城市区域的历史文化底蕴浓厚且娱乐设施丰富,因此综合来看城市区域文化服务价值最高。（2）通过设立不同风险值和权重计算OWA算子,共得出11种风险情景及其保护效率。最终选取权衡值最高的风险情景6的覆盖范围为最优保护区范围,其保护效率约为1.499,覆盖范围多位于南部秦岭地区、天水市和宝鸡市交界处等。 【结论】 结合自然因素与人文因素对研究区生态系统服务进行分析与评价,通过OWA算子平衡不同生态系统服务之间的权衡并选择最优保护区,为提升研究区生态系统服务提供参考。     

Global change and agricultural management options for groundwater sustainability

According to the general circulation models (CGMs) for future climate projections, a temperature increase, precipitation decrease, and an increase in the variability of extreme events may be expected in the future, likely reducing available water resources. For the western Mediterranean, future climate change projections indicate that temperature increase may range from 1.5 °C to 3.6 °C, and the precipitation decline will reach between 10% and 20%, which may result in a significant reduction of natural groundwater recharge. With the use of modelling tools, the amount of groundwater recharge under different climate change scenarios and varying agricultural management practices can be predicted, and water budget attributes can be estimated, which may allow for quantifying impacts, and assist in defining adaptation strategies. For the Inca–Sa Pobla basin (Balearic Islands, Spain), under future climate change projections, agricultural management alternatives of crop type distribution and irrigation demands are required for planned adaptation strategies. In the area, where irrigation water for agricultural practices originates from groundwater resources, adaptation measures based on a change from mixed crops to potatoes and a 20% decrease of agricultural land cultivation have proven to be efficient for the hydrologic system and associated wetland sustainability.     

气候变化对浙江水稻生产影响的集合模拟分析

生长模型耦合气候模式模拟是研究气候变化对农业生产影响的有效途径。本文基于3种典型浓度路径排放情景（RCP）下11个国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）全球气候模式（GCMs）的气候预估结果,以1971-2000年观测资料作为气候资料基准值（baseline）,利用LARS WG天气发生器形成包含RCP26、RCP45、RCP85情景下2050s（2041-2060年）和2070s（2061-2080年）时段的气候预估逐日数据集合,分析了浙江省杭州、金华两个代表站点的气候资源变化特征,以气候模式耦合水稻机理模型ORYZA2000方法,集合模拟评估了气候变化对浙江水稻生产的影响。结果表明,未来浙江代表站点杭州和金华的平均气温均会升高,预估2070s时段杭州、金华分别平均升温1.65～3.56、1.75～3.67 ℃,高温热害发生加剧。在仅考虑未来气候变化的条件下,随着温度升高,代表站点的水稻生育期相对基准期缩短。不考虑CO2浓度增加对水稻产量的肥效作用,无论早稻、晚稻、单季稻,其产量相对于基准年份均普遍减产,且高排放情景下的减产幅度明显大于低排放情景。     

Recent climate observations compared to projections

We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.     

Species loss and aboveground carbon storage in a tropical forest

Tropical forest biodiversity is declining, but the resulting effects on key ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and sequestration, remain unknown. We assessed the influence of the loss of tropical tree species on carbon storage by simulating 18 possible extinction scenarios within a well-studied 50-hectare tropical forest plot in Panama, which contains 227 tree species. Among extinction scenarios, aboveground carbon stocks varied by more than 600%, and biological insurance varied by more than 400%. These results indicate that future carbon storage in tropical forests will be influenced strongly by future species composition.     

海岸带生态系统健康评价中能质和生物多样性的差异——以江苏海岸带为例

生态系统健康评价是生态系统保护和监测研究的重要内容,该过程迫切需要综合性强、准确性高的指标,能质和生物多样性指标都是生态系统健康评估中的有效指标.以江苏省海岸带游泳和底栖生物群落为对象,沿海岸线从海州湾到长江入海口北岸选取15个站点,调查研究江苏省海岸带生态系统能质和生物多样性及其空间分布格局.结果表明:江苏海岸带除了中部地区能质和结构能质值较一致(都偏小)外,南北差异明显,生物多样性指数空间分布情况为南部Margalef指数略大于北部,中部较小,Shannon Wiener和Simpson指数空间分布都为南部＞中部＞北部;能质与生物多样性指标在高级生态系统中反映的生态系统健康状态一致,在中低级生态系统中差异明显;能质与生物多样性指标关联程度低,前者的测算侧重于生态系统中物种的等级,后者的测算侧重于物种的数量;总结能质和生物多样性指标在理论支撑、建立理论视角、与生态系统健康对应关系、应用模型以及局限性等方面的差异,研究结果在一定程度上可以丰富和完善生态系统健康评价研究理论与方法体系.     

Methyl chloroform: impact on stratospheric ozone

Regulations to limit the use of trichloroethylene as a degreasing solvent have led to an increased use of the more photochemically inert solvent methyl chloroform as a substitute. Model calculations show that about 15 percent of the methyl chloroform released into the atmosphere will reach the stratosphere. Time scenarios based on past production figures and reasonable projections for future release rates lead to a steady-state ozone depletion due to this solvent about 20 percent as large as those resulting from the continuous release of chlorofluoromethanes at 1973 rates.     

Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.     

适应气候变化的我国粮食安全及经济增长研究——基于静态多区域农业一般均衡模型

采用静态多区域农业一般均衡模型,把A2气候变化情景和B2气候变化情景导致粮食产量变化作为政策模拟条件,本文研究了气候变化对我国粮食生产、消费及其经济增长的影响。模拟结果显示,无论是A2还是B2气候变化情景,我国玉米、小麦和水稻总体产出增加态势较为明显,中间投入需求和家庭消费需求明显增加,同时模拟结果还显示我国各地区玉米、小麦和水稻的出口将会随着产出的增长而大幅增加、进口随着产出的增加而大幅下降。在经济增长方面,绝大多数地区宏观经济呈增长态势,表现在实际GDP、实际投资、总进出口额的增加。基于研究结果本研究得出如下结论：气候变化会导致我国粮食总产量增加,我国经济增长得以保障。气候变化所引起的粮食产量变化地区间有所差异,总的来说粮食主产区增长幅度要高于非主产区增长幅度,其中东北三省粮食增幅最为明显;不同作物产量因时(时间)因景(气候变化情景)有较大差异;虽然气候变化导致我国各地区粮食产量总体呈增加态势,但未来不确定因素较多,我国粮食安全问题仍不可掉以轻心。     

论保护区基本含义的发展和深化

:随着社会和经济的变化以及自然和社会科学研究的深入,保护的观点正在迅速发展,所以,对保护区的理解也在深化.保护区建立的目的除了以生物多样性的保护为核心外,还包括自然资源的持续利用、生态系统效益的维护,还与广泛的社会发展进程相结合,而且对作为生物多样性不可缺少的伙伴——文化资源也要给予更多的关注.因此,对保护区必须要有相应的管理类型和监控类型的划分以及有效的管理措施,才能发挥保护区的巨大作用,为社会做出更多的贡献.      

Species Diversity and Invasion Resistance in a Marine Ecosystem

Theory predicts that systems that are more diverse should be more resistant to exotic species, but experimental tests are needed to verify this. In experimental communities of sessile marine invertebrates, increased species richness significantly decreased invasion success, apparently because species-rich communities more completely and efficiently used available space, the limiting resource in this system. Declining biodiversity thus facilitates invasion in this system, potentially accelerating the loss of biodiversity and the homogenization of the world's biota.     

济源市王屋山地区乔木物种多样性的垂直分布格局

本文主要调查了2019年5—8月太行山猕猴国家级自然保护区天坛山管护区内乔木在700～1 700 m海拔区间的垂直变化趋势。结果表明:在海拔700～1 700 m范围内,共有乔木38种,属于15科23属,其中壳斗科的栎属占据绝对优势;乔木物种数量随海拔变化具有明显的不规律性,但总体趋势维持稳定;乔木在总体海拔区段内多样性指数为H′=1.00±0.39,随海拔的升高呈不规则分布;乔木的整体均匀度指数E=0.57±0.15,在海拔区段内具有多样的变化。乔木物种多样性指数与均匀度指数之间具有显著的正相关关系。     

城镇家庭收入分布变动对其食物消费的影响——兼论与静态模拟结果的比较

了解不同方案设定下收入分布变化对食物消费结构的变动及其前景有着重要的现实意义。采用广东省城镇住户调查数据,运用两阶段需求分析法(Engel-QUAIDS),动态模拟城镇家庭收入分布变化对其食物消费的影响,并与静态的模拟结果进行比较。结果表明:1)在不同收入组的城镇家庭中,不同种类食物的消费水平和消费结构存在显著差异。2)保持收入分布格局不变、缩小或是拉大收入差距的情景方案都会明显增加城镇家庭各类食物消费量;不同方案中增长幅度有显著差异,缩小收入差距的方案模拟最具明显优势,会促进各类食物消费总量的快速增长,但乳品消费的增幅总为最低。3)相较于动态收入分布的模拟结果,传统的静态收入模拟倾向于低估蛋类、乳品和蔬果类消费总量;而在对粮食、油脂类和肉类消费量的估计中,缩小收入差距的静态模拟有着较为明显的高估倾向。因此,在对未来食物消费进行预测时,需要充分考虑收入分布的动态变化这一因素。     

生物多样性评判林分抗虫性研究方法

为建立相关模型,实现利用生物多样性指数评判林分抗虫性的目的,研究了林内昆虫的丰富度指数、物种多样性指数及均匀度指数等与林分害虫危害程度、林分结构变化之间的关系。阐述了评判林分抗虫性的常用物种多样性指数(Shannon-Wiener指数、Simpson指数、McIntoch指数)和均匀度指数(Pielou指数、Alatalo指数)及其应用中应注意的问题,论述了利用生物多样性评判林分抗虫性研究的基本内容与方法,讨论了林分抗虫性的多样性阈值研究方法。