Modelling the impact of climate change on rangeland forage production using a generalized regression neural network: a case study in Isfahan Province,Central Iran

Monitoring of rangeland forage production at specified spatial and temporal scales is necessary for grazing management and also for implementation of rehabilitation projects in rangelands. This study focused on the capability of a generalized regression neural network(GRNN) model combined with GIS techniques to explore the impact of climate change on rangeland forage production. Specifically, a dataset of 115 monitored records of forage production were collected from 16 rangeland sites during the period 1998–2007 in Isfahan Province, Central Iran. Neural network models were designed using the monitored forage production values and available environmental data(including climate and topography data), and the performance of each network model was assessed using the mean estimation error(MEE), model efficiency factor(MEF), and correlation coefficient(r). The best neural network model was then selected and further applied to predict the forage production of rangelands in the future(in 2030 and 2080) under A1 B climate change scenario using Hadley Centre coupled model. The present and future forage production maps were also produced. Rangeland forage production exhibited strong correlations with environmental factors, such as slope, elevation, aspect and annual temperature. The present forage production in the study area varied from 25.6 to 574.1 kg/hm~2. Under climate change scenario, the annual temperature was predicted to increase and the annual precipitation was predicted to decrease. The prediction maps of forage production in the future indicated that the area with low level of forage production(0–100 kg/hm~2) will increase while the areas with moderate, moderately high and high levels of forage production(≥100 kg/hm~2) will decrease both in 2030 and in 2080, which may be attributable to the increasing annual temperature and decreasing annual precipitation. It was predicted that forage production of rangelands will decrease in the next couple of decades, especially in the western and southern parts of Isfahan Province. These changes are more pronounced in elevations between 2200 and 2900 m. Therefore, rangeland managers have to cope with these changes by holistic management approaches through mitigation and human adaptations.     

Rangelands of Central Asia: challenges and opportunities

Rangelands of Central Asia(referring to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in this study), the largest contiguous area of grazed land in the world, serve as an important source of livelihood for pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in this region. They also play an important role in absorbing CO2 as a global carbon sink. However, unsustainable management of rangelands has led to their degradation hugely by downgrading their potential agro-ecological, environmental and socio-economical roles. This paper reviewed the rangeland degradation in Central Asia, a topic which so far has received only scant coverage in the international scientific literature. It also provided examples of successful experiences and outlined possible options that land managers can adopt to enhance the sustainable management of these vast degraded rangelands. The experiences and lessons described in this paper may also be relevant for other degraded rangeland areas, especially in the developing countries. The causes of rangeland degradation within the Central Asian region are numerous, complex and inter-related. Therefore, while addressing the factors associated with improper rangeland management may shed some light on the causes of rangeland degradation, the scope of this paper would not be all-encompassing for the major causes of degradation. There is a need to develop and widely apply the viable and locally accepted and adapted packages of technical, institutional and policy options for sustainable rangeland management. Incentivizing the collective action of small-scale pastoralists who group together to facilitate access to remote pastures can reduce the degree of overgrazing within community pastures, such as those near the settlements. We also found that migratory grazing through pooling of resources among small-scale pastoralists can increase household income. After their independence, most Central Asian countries adopted various rangeland tenure arrangements. However, the building of enhanced capacities of pasture management and effective local rangeland governance structures can increase the likelihood, which will be sustainable and equitable. Finally, this paper presented several promising technical options, aiming at reversing the trend of rangeland degradation in Central Asia.     

Impacts of livestock grazing on a savanna grassland in Kenya

The dynamics of most rangelands in Kenya remain to be poorly understood.This paper provides baseline information on the response of a semiarid rangeland under different livestock grazing regimes on land inhabited by the Massai people in the east side of Amboseli National Park in Kenya.The data were collected from grasslands designated into four types:(1) grassland from previous Massai settlements that had been abandoned for over twenty years;(2) grassland excluded from livestock grazing for eight years;(3) a dry season grazing area;and (4) a continuous grazing area where grazing occurred throughout all seasons.Collected data included grass species composition,grass height,inter-tuft distance,standing grass biomass and soil characteristics.The results indicated that continuous grazing area in semiarid rangelands exhibited loss of vegetation with negative,long-term effects on grass functional qualities and forage production,whereas grassland that used traditional Maasai grazing methods showed efficiency and desirable effects on the rangelands.The results also showed that abandoned homestead sites,though degraded,were important nutrient reservoirs.     

Potential habitat modeling for reintroduction of three native plant species in central Iran

Potential habitat modeling of endemic species is an appropriate method to maintain biodiversity,ecosystem function and rehabilitation of rangeland ecosystems.Astragalus caragana,A.cyclophyllon and A.podolobus are endemic in Iran's rangelands and some neighboring countries.The three native species could endure environmental stresses due to their distinctive ecophysiological characteristics.They play important roles in sustainable pastures production,recreation and improvement.They suffer severe threat from many factors including;grazing,agriculture and invasive exotic species.We analyzed the potential habitat of three native plant species in central Iran basing on the grid map with the resolution of 1-km.We used inventory records from field surveys,herbarium collections and 22 environmental factors to explore the environmental influences on given species distribution by Maximum entropy(Maxent) model.Maxent is a species distribution model that uses species occurrence and environmental data for predicting potential species.The results of our study indicated species occurrence has strong correlation with environmental factors such as mean temperature of wettest season,elevation and precipitation of coldest season.We evaluated the model accuracy by AUC(area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) based on an independent test data set.AUC values indicated the high power of Maxent to create potential habitat map(AUCA.caragana=0.988,AUCA.cyclophyllon=0.927,AUCA.podolobus=0.923).It is important to consider that AUC values tend to be lower for species that have broad distribution scope,such as A.podolobus distribution.Most suitable potential habitat distributions of the three species were predicted in the western and southwestern parts of rangelands in Isfahan province.Visual comparisons of the actual distribution map of the three species with produced Maxent maps represent a good agreement.In general,the model demonstrated that the occurrence of the given species is highly probable when the elevation is between 2,200 and 3,000 m and mean temperature of wettest season less than 3°C.This model,therefore,can be applied to recognize potential sites for rangeland reclamation projects.     

Rangeland Monitoring and Fire: Wildfires and Prescribed Burning,Nutrient Cycling,and Plant Succession

Prescribed fires are used to manipulate and manage rangelands, but effective monitoring techniques are needed to ensure that management goals and objectives are being met. The application of an effective fire program on rangelands is not a simple task. Overgrazing by livestock since the early development of the livestock industry has altered the vegetative complex on most rangelands with an increase in woody plants. Because of its relatively low cost, prescribed fire, both cool and warm season, are sustainable practices if proper grazing management is part of the management scheme. Grazing management and prescribed fire have often been treated as separate issues by rangeland managers; however, development and application of an effective prescribed burning program requires an understanding of the relationship between fire and grazing. Ranchers need fuel (grass) to burn and they also need income from livestock, which requires forage (grass, a major part of forage). In the short-term, fire reduces carrying capacity for livestock but, in the long-term, fire increases grass production, resulting in increased carrying capacity. Therefore, some monitoring technique is needed that will allow the manager to budget grass for both fuel and forage. The Grazing Manager (TGM) is a software program that projects both forage production (expressed as animal unit days) and, animal demand (expressed as animal unit days) for each forage year. TGM has been successfully used on the Texas A&M University Research Station at Sonora as a tool to integrate prescribed fire and grazing management.     

Assessing the response of dryland barley yield to climate variability in semi-arid regions,Iran

Precipitation and temperature are the most abiotic factors that greatly impact the yield of crop, particularly in dryland. Barley, as the main cereal is predominantly cultivated in dryland and the livelihood of smallholders depends on the production of this crop, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This study aimed to investigate the response of the grain yield of dryland barley to temperature and precipitation variations at annual, seasonal and monthly scales in seven counties of East and West Azerbaijan provinces in northwestern Iran during 1991-2010. Humidity index (HI) was calculated and its relationship with dryland barley yield was evaluated at annual and monthly scales. The results showed that the minimum, maximum and mean temperatures increased by 0.19°C/a, 0.11°C/a and 0.10°C/a, respectively, while annual precipitation decreased by 0.80 mm/a during 1991-2010. Climate in study area has become drier by 0.22/a in annual HI during the study period. Negative effects of increasing temperature on the grain yield of dryland barley were more severe than the positive effects of increasing precipitation. Besides, weather variations in April and May were related more to the grain yield of dryland barley than those in other months. The grain yield of dryland barley was more drastically affected by the variation of annual minimum temperature comparing with other weather variables. Furthermore, our findings illustrated that the grain yield of dryland barley increased by 0.01 t/hm² for each unit increase in annual HI during 1991-2010. Finally, any increase in the monthly HI led to crop yield improvement in the study area, particularly in the drier counties, i.e., Myaneh, Tabriz and Khoy in Iran.     

Estimation of spatial and temporal changes in net primary production based on Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model in semi-arid rangelands of SemiromCounty,Iran

Net primary production (NPP) is an indicator of rangeland ecosystem function. This research assessed the potential of the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model for estimating NPP and its spatial and temporal changes in semi-arid rangelands of Semirom County, Iran. Using CASA model, we estimated the NPP values based on monthly climate data and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained from the MODIS sensor. Regression analysis was then applied to compare the estimated production data with observed production data. The spatial and temporal changes in NPP and light utilization efficiency (LUE) were investigated in different rangeland vegetation types. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was also calculated at different time scales and the correlation of SPI with NPP changes was determined. The results indicated that the estimated NPP values varied from 0.00 to 74.48 g C/(m²?a). The observed and estimated NPP values had different correlations, depending on rangeland conditions and vegetation types. The highest and lowest correlations were respectively observed in Astragalus spp.-Agropyronspp. rangeland (R²=0.75) with good condition and Gundeliaspp.-Cousiniaspp. rangeland (R²=0.36) with poor and very poor conditions. The maximum and minimum LUE values were found in Astragalus spp.-Agropyronspp. rangeland (0.117 g C/MJ) with good condition and annual grasses-annual forbs rangeland (0.010 g C/MJ), respectively. According to the correlations between SPI and NPP changes, the effects of drought periods on NPP depended on vegetation types and rangeland conditions. Annual plants had the highest drought sensitivity while shrubs exhibited the lowest drought sensitivity. The positive effects of wet periods on NPP were less evident in degraded areas where the destructive effects of drought were more prominent. Therefore, determining vegetation types and rangeland conditions is essential in NPP estimation. The findings of this study confirmed the potential of the CASA for estimating rangeland production. Therefore, the model output maps can be used to evaluate, monitor and optimize rangeland management in semi-arid rangelands of Iran where MODIS NPP products are not available.     

Global Dryland Ecosystem Programme(G-DEP): Africa consultative meeting report

In order to enhance and restore the ecosystems of natural capital in African arid regions, the Global Dryland Ecosystem Programme(G-DEP) consultative meeting was hosted in Dakar, Senegal, from 23 to 25 September 2019. This paper details the first African meeting of the G-DEP. Consultative meeting reviewed preceding dryland ecosystems case studies, identified vulnerable arid and semi-arid regions, and proposed sustainable solutions to problems. It also identified the successes and failures of previous attempts to improve vulnerable ecosystems and ultimately formed an action plan to improve these attempts. Climate, ecosystems, and livelihoods for Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs), Great Green Wall Initiative(GGWI) for Sahara and Sahel, and China-Africa cooperation on science, technology, and innovation are three extra main sections concerned of the meeting. Separately, more specific topics as the complicated relationship between these natural processes and human activity, including pastoralism, soil restoration, and vegetation regenerate techniques, were fully discussed. Consultative meeting also identified the positive effects international collaboration can have on dryland regions, specifically in the capacity of sharing information, technology, and innovation on purpose to develop a joint proposal for long-term research programs in African arid and semi-arid areas. Moreover, meetings that review the progress made on ecosystem management for the sustainable livelihoods in Africa, identification of priority areas, and the development and implementation of ecosystem programs for proper research and collaboration in African arid and semi-arid zones, have been proposed as strategic recommendations to enhance the global partnership for sustainable development. Furthermore, as the outcomes of the workshop, there are three steps proposed to handle African dryland climate changes, several aspects suggested to solve current dilemmas of the GGWI, and a series of actions recommended for G-DEP related activities in Africa.     

荒漠草原区畜牧业对气候变化的响应研究——以内蒙古苏尼特右旗为例

气候变化对自然生态环境及社会经济活动的影响日益明显,但县域畜牧业对气候变化响应研究较少。文中以苏尼特右旗为例,应用灰色关联分析法,基于经营制度,划分1976-1983、1984-1990、1991-2002、2003-2008四个时序段,将年均降水量、年均气温、草场载畜量、肉畜产品收购价格指数等作为驱动因素,分别定量分析了各因素对畜牧业产值和牲畜结构的影响。结果显示,作为外部环境因素,气候始终影响和限制畜牧业的发展,而在市场经济引入牧区后,市场因素对该地区畜牧业发展起到了极大的引导和推动作用。从长期看,该旗降水减少、气温升高、干旱加剧以及各种极端气候事件频发都必将是牧区畜牧业发展的主要环境影响因素,牧区畜牧业要实现可持续发展,气候变化不容忽视。     

宁夏旱地农业类型分区及评价研究

旱地农业是指干旱、半干旱区的雨养农业。类型分区是因地制宜布局农业生产,找出农业技术措施推广的合理区间和开发旱耕地生产潜力之重要条件。该文在指出宁夏干旱特点的基础上,提出旱地农业类型分类的原则与指标和分区方法,最后将宁夏划分为荒漠草原风沙干旱牧业区、半农半牧区、半干旱典型草原旱作农业区和半湿润森林草原农林区。同时也给每一区的资源条件以综合评价。     

Effects of rangeland exclusion on plant cover and soil properties in a steppe rangeland of Southeastern Iran

The study was conducted in Taftan rangeland in Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran, to study the effects of grazing exclusion on reclamation of vegetation cover and soil properties. After a comprehensive assessment of the vegetation types, plant sampling was carried out in sampling stands (50?×?50?m). In each stand, vegetation properties were measured using simple transect lines (50?m) method within quadrats (5?×?5?m), with a systematically randomized method. Soil sampling (75 samples) was performed along transects from the surface layer (0–30?cm). Results showed that livestock exclusion significantly affected community characteristics. The species richness (14.32), diversity (2.97), and plant cover (65.14%) showed their maximum level in the 15-year exclusion. The soil nutrient content increased during exclusion. Organic carbon (4.20%), total nitrogen (1.12%), available potassium (393.33?mg?kg^?1), and available phosphorus content (17.13?mg?kg^?1) attained significantly greater values under the long-term exclusion. The soil pH level (8.93) was significantly higher in the overgrazed site compared to the grazing exclusion sites. The soil electrical conductivity was statistically similar under the three treatments. The amounts of silt (63.40%) and clay (14%) were greater in the long-term exclusion compared with overgrazed rangeland. The long-term exclusion showed the lowest amount of sand (22.50%). These results imply that livestock exclusion plays an important role in vegetation restoration and soil conservation of degraded ecosystems in arid regions. We suggest that more studies are required to investigate the effect of livestock exclusion on ecosystem process in the arid rangeland regeneration.     

Monitoring for Success

The use of data gained from monitoring vegetation and soil parameters to enhance the ecological and economic efficacy of range livestock enterprises is not a new concept. I have been involved in several applications of rangeland monitoring to enhance the quality of rangeland environments and to preserve range livestock production as a proper and economically effective means of using such environments.     

Discriminating and monitoring rangeland condition classes with MODIS NDVI and EVI indices in Iranian arid and semi-arid lands

Monitoring is essential for appropriate rangeland management. The present study aimed to examine the potential of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery in rangeland condition assessment and monitoring within and across vegetation types in the arid and semi-arid rangelands of central Iran. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were calculated from MODIS Aqua/Terra Level 1B data (related to 2003–2013). The obtained values were compared with vegetation cover measurements and rangeland condition classes at 110 sampling sites using linear regression, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), independent-samples t-tests, and Tukey’s pairwise comparisons. The results showed that two indices made stronger predictions of vegetation cover within a vegetation type (R²?>?0.87, P?R²?>?0.51, P?P?≤?0.001) in predicting rangeland condition classes (poor, fair, and good), but their performance varied between vegetation types. The NDVI classified about 73, 19, and 7.5% of the rangelands in poor, fair, and good condition classes, respectively. The good performance of MODIS NDVI index at different landscapes indicates that this index has high potential in detecting vegetation cover and discriminating different condition classes, therefore, it can be used to aid field- based techniques in rangeland condition assessment and monitoring.     

Attribution analysis and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI drivers in the Xilin Gol grassland,China

Grassland degradation is influenced by climate change and human activities, and has become a major obstacle for the development of arid and semi-arid areas, posing a series of environmental and socio-economic problems. An in-depth understanding of the inner relations among grassland vegetation dynamics, climate change, and human activities is therefore greatly significant for understanding the variation in regional environmental conditions and predicting future developmental trends. Based on MOD...     

自然降水量利用与旱地裸燕麦产量形成的关系

通过该项调查与分析表明 :旱作区裸燕麦年平均降水量 30 0 - 40 0 mm,6- 8月降水量占全年的 64% - 74% ,降水变率小 ,降水日数多 ,大于 1 0和 2 5 mm降水次数多 ,1天或者 1小时内降水强度小 ,全年超过 30 0 mm降水保证率达 80 % ,生长季节内超过 2 5 0 mm占 70 % ,7-8月超中均出现丰、平、欠年规律 ;4、5、6月降水量大于 1 0、2 5、5 0 mm,7和 8月大于 1 0 0 mm。或者有两次 1 0 mm的保苗雨 ,40 - 60 mm的抽穗雨 ,1 0 0 mm的灌浆雨 ,亩产达 5 1 - 74kg。反之 ,2 0- 30 kg通过蓄住天上水 ,保住地里摘 ,形成土壤小水库的耕作措施 ;合理调节播种期 ;搭配不同熟性品种 ,增强抗旱性和经济性状 ,达到持续丰产和稳产目的。     

草地植物入侵的预防和控制

外来植物入侵属于生物入侵的范畴,对生态、环境和生物多样性具有破坏性影响。植物入侵的途径很多,但有意引进是最主要途径。本文阐述了国外一些地方由于植物入侵所造成的损失和教训。重点介绍了我国植物入侵的形势及主要有害外来植物种类、来源、入侵途径、分布范围及危害程度,并根据国际、国内目前应对植物入侵的作法和未来趋势,提出了预防和控制植物入侵的办法和措施。认为预防和控制植物入侵是草地保护的一项重要任务。     

宁夏南部山区旱作农业开发战略研究

宁夏南部山区属半干旱区 ,90 %以上的耕地为旱地 ,加速旱作农业开发 ,对促进该区域经济全面发展具有十分重要的战略意义。本文论述了旱作农业开发在宁南山区的地位与潜力 ,提出了相应的技术需求。针对区域资源特点提出该区域旱作农业开发的三个战略阶段 :即强农促牧、农牧并举和稳农重牧阶段     

Innovative Evaluation of Field and Spatial Remote Sensing Data for Analysis of Vegetation Bio-types in Arid Rangelands,Taznakht, Moroccan Anti-Atlas

In Morocco, as in many other regions of north Africa, desertification is affecting the most sensitive environments such as the rangelands. Demographic expansion, cereal growing, and overgrazing constitute the principal factors of degradation in such regions. The use of satellite data provides an efficient tool for observation and continuous measurement of the biosphere. Our objective is to propose a method for the characterization and mapping of rangelands in arid and desert areas, based on the biophysical reality of the environment (field data). A highly detailed study based on field surveys of the Taznakht basin (Moroccan Anti-Atlas) was carried out to determine rangeland typology. Close relationships were demonstrated between the abiotic environment and the vegetation. The relevant bio-pedo-morphological classes at each site, corresponding to the different types of rangeland, were identified. The cartographic accuracy of these classes was considerably increased by combining the stratification obtained by Visual Interpretation Assisted by Computer of the photofacies of a Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Tene (SPOT) image obtained during the dry period, with a supervised classification of each stratum based on maximum likelihood. This methodological approach was used to develop a simple, robust, and generally applicable model for the efficient correlation of field and remote sensing data.     

近30年甘肃省农业需水预测与节水高效农业建设途径

以粮食自给为前提,对甘肃省未来30a的农产品需求及高低节水方案下的农业需水进行了预测。通过对水资源供需平衡进行分析后认为,要使农业用水保障供给,农业生产必须走高效用水的道路。提出了发展节水灌溉、建立旱地高效农业、实行水旱互补、统等发展等农业高效用水思路。     

种草养畜与内蒙古自治区农业的可持续发展

从遏制荒漠化、种植业结构调整、草地禁牧、气候变化等方面阐述了种草养畜是内蒙古农业可持续发展的现实选择。并对农田种草、牧草品种的选育引进、栽培及利用等问题进行了探讨。