Trends in cow numbers and culling rate in the Irish cattle population, 2003 to 2006

Cows are the main economic production units of Ireland's cattle industry. Therefore, demographic information, including overall numbers and survival rates, are relevant to the Irish agricultural industry. However, few data are available on the demographics of cows within a national population, either in Ireland or elsewhere, despite the recent development of comprehensive national cattle databases in many EU Member States. This study has sought: to determine the rate of cow culling from the national herd; to determine the rate of culling by type (dairy, beef), age, method of exit, date of exit and interval between last calving and exit; to calculate the national cow on-farm mortality rate; and to compare the Irish rates with published data from other countries. This work was conducted using data recorded in the national Cattle Movement Monitoring System (CMMS). Culling refers to the exit of cows from the national herd, as a result of death but regardless of reason, and cow-culling rate was calculated as the number of cow exits (as defined above) each year divided by the number of calf births in the same year. Culling rate was determined by type (dairy or beef), date of birth, method of exit (slaughter or on-farm death), month of exit and interval between last calving and exit. The average cow-culling rate during 2003 to 2006 was 19.6% (21.3% for dairy, 18% for beef). While comparisons must be treated with caution, it concluded that the overall rates of culling in Ireland fell within published internationally accepted norms. The on-farm mortality rate of 3.2-4.1% was similar to that reported in comparable studies.     

Discrete time survival analysis of lamb mortality in a terminal sire composite population

Mortality records of 8,642 lambs from a composite population at the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center during the first year of life were studied using discrete survival analyses. Lamb mortality was studied across periods from birth to weaning, birth to 365 d of age, and weaning to 365 d of age. Animal-time data sets were created for each period using different time intervals: daily, weekly, fortnightly, and monthly. Each data set was analyzed using logistic and complementary log-log sire, animal, and maternal effects models. Explanatory variables included in the models were duration of time interval, sex, type of birth, contemporary group, age of dam, and type of upbringing (nursery or not). Similar estimates of explanatory variables were obtained within the same period across models and different time intervals. Heritability estimates from the complementary log-log models were greater than those from the comparable logistic models because of the difference in variance of the respective link functions. Heritability estimates from the complementary log-log sire model ranged from 0.13 to 0.21 for all periods. These estimates were greater than the complementary log-log animal model estimates that ranged from 0.04 to 0.12. Maternal effects were important early in life, with the maternal heritability slightly greater than the direct additive heritability. Negative correlations (-0.72 to -0.65) between direct additive and maternal effects was estimated. The similarity of results among survival analysis methods demonstrates that the discrete methodology is a viable alternative to estimate variance components in livestock survival data.     

Simulation-based estimation of BSE infection in Japan

The first case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Japan was found in September 2001. As a result, national BSE surveillance systems in slaughterhouses and farms were introduced between October 2001 and April 2004. All cattle, with the exception of those under 24 months of age that die at farms, now undergo compulsory testing when they die or are slaughtered. The removal of specified risk material (SRM) from all slaughtered cattle and a ban on the feeding of meat-and-bone meal to all farm animals were implemented in October 2001. However, infected cattle that died or were slaughtered before these measures were put into practice could have been a source of infection to other cattle through the rendering process. The slaughtered cattle could also have been a source of infection to humans via SRM that entered the food chain. The purpose of this study was to estimate the number of BSE-infected cattle that could have been a source of infection to cattle and humans before October 2001. Since all typical cases were dairy cattle, this study focused on the dairy cattle population. We developed a simulation model to obtain the year of death and the final disposition of infected cows born in each year from 1996 to 2001. In this model, the dairy cattle population was divided into birth cohorts, and parameters regarding its population dynamics were assumed to be constant. Using this model, the total number of infected cattle in each birth year was estimated by maximum likelihood estimation using data on the number of detected cases from 2002 to 2006. Finally, the number of infected cattle that died or were slaughtered each year was estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation using the same model with the total number of infected cattle estimated by maximum likelihood estimation. It was estimated that the majority of infected cattle that could have been sources of infection before 2001 were born in 1996. The total number born in 1996 was estimated to be 155 (95% confidence interval: 90-275). Of these 155 cattle, 56 died or were slaughtered before October 2001, after the accumulation of infectious agent in their bodies. Only 5 of these 56 cattle were estimated to have been slaughtered. Therefore, the number of infected cattle that could have served as a source of human infection would appear to have been a very limited subset of the BSE-infected cattle in Japan.     

Competing risks analysis of lamb mortality in a terminal sire composite population

Mortality records from birth to weaning of 8,301 lambs from a composite population at the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center were analyzed using a competing risks model. The advantage of the competing risks model over traditional survival analyses is that different hazards of mortality can be assigned to different causes, such as disease, dystocia, and starvation. In this study, specific causes of mortality were grouped into dam-related (DAMR; e.g., dystocia and starvation), pneumonia (PNEU), disease (DIS; excluding pneumonia), and other (OTHER) categories. The hazard of mortality was analyzed using a competing risk approach, where each mortality category was assumed to be independent. Continuous- and discrete-time survival analyses were implemented using sire, animal, and maternal effects mixed models. The continuous-time survival analysis used the Weibull model to describe the hazard of mortality for each category of mortality. Under the discrete-time survival analysis, a complementary log-log link function was used to analyze animal-time data sets using weekly intervals for each category of mortality. Explanatory variables were sex, type of birth, contemporary group, and age of dam. The significant influences of type of birth and age of dam effects were consistent across category of mortality, and the sex effect was significant for all categories except the OTHER category. Estimates of variance components indicated strong maternal effects for all categories except for PNEU. Estimates of additive genetic heritabilities from the discrete maternal effects models were 0.08+/-0.04, 0.09+/-0.18, 0.16+/-0.12, 0.19+/-0.09, and 0.14+/-0.10 for OVERALL (all causes combined), DIS, DAMR, PNEU, and OTHER categories, respectively. Ignoring the cause of the defining event in mortality and longevity studies may hide important genetic differences. Therefore, the effectiveness of breeding programs relying on models that ignore multiple causes of an event in time-to-event data, such as mortality and longevity, could be affected.     

Smallholder dairy farming in the Chikwaka communal land, Zimbabwe: birth, death and demographic trends

A study of mortality, morbidity and productivity of cattle on smallholder dairy farms was conducted in Chikwaka communal land, Zimbabwe. We estimated the frequency and determinants of mortality in DDP cattle and explored demographic trends. Using Cox proportional-hazards modelling (with the farm as a random effect), the animal-level variables associated with mortality were age, sex and breed. Calf mortality was 35% of calves within the first year of life. This was nearly five-times higher than adult mortality (relative risk (RR) 4.73, 95% CI 2.12, 10.6). Females had lower mortality than males (RR=0.25, 95% CI 0.11, 0.56). After adjusting for the confounding effects of age, Jersey breeding was associated with higher mortality (RR=2.89, 95% CI 1.16, 7.22) whereas Red Dane breeding was associated with lower mortality (RR=0.27, 95% CI 0.11, 0.69). Farms with a higher ratio of non-DDP:DDP cattle had higher mortality in their DDP cattle. Leslie-matrix models simulated population growth and showed that (at the current levels of mortality and fertility) the population would double in approximately 10 years.     

Estimating the trend of the French BSE epidemic over six birth cohorts through the analysis of abattoir screening in 2001 and 2002

A bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) testing programme at the abattoir started in 2001 in France. A total of 5 281 293 bovines were tested in 2001 and 2002; 87 were found positive in 2001--37 per million (95% CI 30-46)--, whereas only 71 in 2002--24 per million (95% CI 19-30). Logistic regression models were run to compare the prevalence of BSE on successive birth cohorts, using a pair-wise method of controlling for age at testing; the prevalence on the first one, determined on animals slaughtered in 2001, was compared to the prevalence on the following one determined on animals slaughtered in 2002. Five models were performed in order to compare the birth cohorts preceding and following the months of June 1993 (i.e. July 92-June 93 birth cohort compared to July 93-June 94 birth cohort) (8.5 years old cattle), June 1994 (7.5 years old cattle), June 1995 (6.5 years old cattle), June 1996 (5.5 years old cattle) and June 1997 (4.5 years old cattle). The models were adjusted for the production type of cattle and the test used. The results showed a significant increase (OR = 2.31, 95% CI 1.08-4.9) of the BSE prevalence between the July 93-June 94 and July 94-June 95 cohorts, and then a significant decrease over the next two birth cohorts; the July 95-June 96 birth cohort was significantly less affected than the July 94-June 95 one (OR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.27-0.78), and the July 96-June 97 birth cohort was significantly less affected than the July 95-June 96 one (OR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.07-0.37). The increase in BSE prevalence between the July 93-June 94 and July 94-June 95 cohorts was in agreement with modelling studies, but needs to be confronted to the data on fallen stock at the national level. The decrease in BSE prevalence on the birth cohorts born after June 1995 was in agreement with the findings on the fallen stock in the western part of France and matches the implementation of the removal of specified risk materials (SRM) and dead animals from the processing of meat and bone meal (MBM) since June 1996.     

The estimated long-term impact of tsetse control on the size of the population of cattle in the Didessa Valley,Western Ethiopia

The long-term impact of tsetse control on cattle population size in the Didessa Valley, western Ethiopia, was analysed using an age-structured population model. A prior analytical assessment revealed that the risk of cattle dying in the tsetse-unprotected villages ranged from 4 to 9 times higher than in the tsetse-protected village. Model results show that during a period of 10 years the cattle population in the tsetse-protected village of Meti is likely to increase from 167 to 583 animals, while that in the adjacent tsetse-unprotected village of Gale remains almost constant. Model simulations also predict that improving the survival rate of calves in the tsetse-unprotected villages of Taikiltu and Temoloko (which presently have calf mortality rates of up to 35%) would bring a substantial increase in their cattle population.     

Survival analysis of lamb mortality in a terminal sire composite population

Records of mortality during the first year of life of 8,642 lambs from a composite population at the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center were studied using survival and logistic analyses. The traditional logistic approach analyzes the binary response of whether or not a lamb survived until a particular time point, thus disregarding information on the actual age at death. Survival analysis offers an alternative way to study mortality, wherein the response variable studied is the precise age at death while accounting for possible record censoring. Lamb mortality was studied across five periods based on management practices: birth to weaning, birth to 120 d of age, birth to 365 d of age, weaning to 365 d of age, and 120 to 365 d of age. Explanatory variables included in the models were sex, type of birth, age of dam, and whether or not a lamb was raised in a nursery. The survival analysis was implemented using Weibull and Cox proportional hazards models with sire as random effect. The logistic approach evaluated sire, animal, and maternal effects models. Lambs culled during any period were treated as censored in the survival analyses and were assumed alive in the logistic analyses. Similar estimates of the explanatory variables were obtained from the survival and logistic analyses, but the survival analyses had lower standard errors than the logistic analyses, suggesting a slight superiority of the former approach. Heritability estimates were generally consistent across all periods ranging from 0.15 to 0.21 in the Weibull model, 0.12 to 0.20 in the Cox model, 0.08 to 0.11 in the logistic sire model, 0.04 to 0.05 in the logistic animal model, and 0.03 to 0.07 in the maternal effects logistic model. Maternal effects were important in the early stages of lamb life, but the maternal heritability was less than 0.07 in all the stages studied with a negative correlation (-0.86 to -0.61) between direct and maternal effects. The estimates of additive genetic variance indicate that the use of survival analysis estimates in breeding schemes could allow for effective selection against mortality, thereby improving sheep productivity, welfare, and profitability.     

新疆褐牛不同生长阶段体尺体重的遗传参数估计

试验旨在构建新疆褐牛不同生长阶段体尺体重性状的遗传参数估计模型,估计新疆褐牛生长发育性状的遗传参数,为新疆褐牛育种目标性状的确定和综合选择指数的制定提供理论依据。以1983－2017年收集的4个新疆褐牛核心育种场81头公牛后代的2 504条新疆褐牛体尺体重数据为研究材料,以初生及6、12和18月龄阶段的体重、体高、体斜长和胸围性状为研究对象,通过DMU软件构建多性状动物模型,以场、出生年份、出生季节和性别为固定效应,以加性效应和母体效应为随机效应,估计各性状的遗传力和遗传相关。结果显示,新疆褐牛初生至18月龄阶段体重遗传力估计值为0.22~0.61,体高遗传力估计值为0.43~0.46,体斜长遗传力估计值为0.29~0.52,胸围遗传力估计值为0.35~0.61。相同和不同生长阶段新疆褐牛各体尺体重性状间均呈现正的遗传相关和表型相关,其中相同生长阶段各体尺体重性状间的遗传相关系数为0.11~0.92,表型相关系数为0.05~0.92;不同生长阶段各体尺体重性状间的遗传相关系数为0.08~0.92,表型相关系数为0.01~0.72。18月龄与其他各生长阶段间体尺体重性状的遗传相关系数较高,且均属于中高遗传力性状。因此,在制定新疆褐牛综合选择指数时,应重点考虑18月龄阶段的体尺体重性状,从而进一步提升新疆褐牛生长发育性状的遗传进展。     

Simulation analysis of the population dynamics of the mite, Psoroptes ovis, infesting sheep.

The pattern of population growth of the ectoparasitic mite, Psoroptes ovis (Acari: Psoroptidae), on its ovine host is considered through the development of a Leslie matrix-based, simulation model. The model is parameterised using experimental data in conjunction with reanalysis of published data. The model shows that on sheep P. ovis populations grow at a rate of approximately 11% per day and the population doubles every 6.3 days. Additional rates of adult mortality, in excess of 50% per day, need to be imposed to prevent population growth. The predictions of the model are tested by comparison of the expected numbers of mites with the numbers recorded in lesions either on naturally infested sheep where the date of infestation can be estimated or on one artificially infested animal, where the initial number of mites and date of infestation are known precisely. In both cases the observed number of mites in lesions relate closely to the numbers expected from the simulations. The model simulations do not support the concept of a 'lag' phase as distinct from the 'growth' phase in the changing pattern of mite abundance on an infested sheep and suggests that the observed pattern of growth is a natural function of an exponential increase in numbers. The development of such models and their use in explaining the demographic processes which drive mite population dynamics are discussed.     

Effects of body weight loss during transit from sale barns to commercial feedlots on health and performance in feeder cattle cohorts arriving to feedlots from 2000 to 2008

Body weight loss during transport or shrink (SHK) is a common occurrence in feeder cattle that results from a physiological, complex process. Previous studies have assessed the effects of environmental and dietary stressors on transport-associated BW loss; however, data on associations between shrink and subsequent health and performance parameters in feeder cattle are limited. Operational data from 13 U.S. commercial feedlots (n = 16,590 cattle cohorts) were used to quantify how SHK was associated with bovine respiratory disease (BRD) morbidity and overall mortality risks, HCW and ADG in feeder cattle cohorts arriving to feedlots during 2000 to 2008. Multivariable mixed-effects negative binomial and linear regression models were employed to determine these associations while accounting for other cohort-level demographic variables. The median SHK among the study cohorts was 3.0% with a mean (± SEM) of 2.4 ± 0.02%. The mean (± SEM) cumulative BRD morbidity was 10.0% ± 0.09% (median = 5.8%; range 0 to 100%) and the mean (± SEM) overall cumulative mortality was 1.3% ± 0.01% (median = 0.9%; range: 0 to 25.6%). The mean and median number of days on feed of cohorts experiencing initial BRD cases was 143 and 150 d (range = 23 to 288 d). The effects of SHK were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with BRD morbidity, overall mortality, HCW and ADG, and these effects were significantly (P < 0.05) modified by gender, season and mean arrival BW of the cohort. Combining data on BW loss during transport with cohort demographics could allow a more precise prediction of health and performance of feedlot cattle.     

Comparison of culling rates among dairy cows grouped on the basis of serologic status for bovine leukemia virus

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between serologic status for bovine leukemia virus (BLV) and culling rates by use of survival times in a commercial Holstein dairy herd. DESIGN: Longitudinal study. ANIMALS: 593 milking cows. PROCEDURE: Cattle were tested for antibodies against BLV by use of agar gel immunodiffusion or ELISA 4 times each year from 1989 to 1993 and then annually through 1999. Dates of birth, first calving, and culling or death were obtained from Dairy Herd Improvement Association records. Most cows were enrolled in the study on the date of first calving. Survival times were compared among seropositive, seronegative, and seroconverted cows with the Kaplan-Meier method and a Cox regression model stratified on the basis of year of birth. RESULTS: Complete records were available for 593 of 685 (87%) cattle in the dairy herd during the study period. Median survival time for all cows was 31.7 months. Survival times, which correspond to cull rates, did not differ significantly between seropositive and seronegative cattle, whereas cattle that seroconverted during the study had a significantly longer survival time. Year of birth was positively and significantly associated with survival time. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: BLV serologic status was not associated with cull rate as measured by survival time in this dairy herd. This finding is in contrast to results of studies that used survival analysis techniques; our results may influence management decisions concerning BLV.     

Effects of travel distance and season of the year on transport‐related mortality in cattle

The number of animals that die during transport to a slaughterhouse or shortly after being delivered to a slaughterhouse may serve as an indicator of animal welfare during transport. The aim of this study was to determine the mortality rate in cattle resulting from transport to slaughter in the Czech Republic in the period from 2009 to 2014, and to investigate the effect of travel distance and season of the year. Transport‐related mortality rates were recorded for all categories of cattle for the following travel distances: up to 50 km, 51–100 km, 101–200 km and over 200 km. Higher mortality rates occurred with shorter travel distances (<50 km and 51–100 km) when compared to longer travel distances (101–200 km and > 200 km), with a significant difference (P < 0.01) between short and long travel distances being found in feeders and dairy cows. Also, the season of the year had a significant impact on the mortality rate among transported cattle. The highest mortality rate in all categories was observed in spring months. The lowest mortality rate was found in autumn months for fat cattle and dairy cows and in winter months for feeders and calves.     

Factors affecting the livestock herd size among smallholder households in Zambia

Structural changes in the economic and demographic landscapes in the developing countries create a host of opportunities for smallholder livestock producers to tap into the economic growth from which they have largely been excluded. However, small livestock herd sizes limit the opportunities available to farmers to commercialize and benefit from the growing demand for livestock and livestock products. Therefore, understanding what it takes to build and maintain the herd size is a critical step in addressing the problem of low market participation. The study used five cross-sectional nationally representative data sets to arrive at the following conclusions. While purchases are a primary source for the initial stock, births are the principal way of increasing the herd size. Livestock deaths as reflected by high mortality rates are the major outflow channel through which livestock leaves the herd, and reducing the mortality rates has a positive effect on the livestock population as evidenced within the cattle sub-sector. Thus, provision of adequate animal health services is key to addressing the high mortality rates which subsequently can lead to increased herd size. As births are the primary means of increasing the herd size, it is necessary to implement interventions that address the reproduction rates. The interventions include adequate feeding of livestock on high-quality feed and strategic feeding to address the dry season challenges. These interventions can facilitate the growth of the young livestock into mature breeding stock and thus increase the herd size.     

Estimation of the age-dependent risk of infection to BSE of dairy cattle in Great Britain

An important aspect of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic has been an apparent age-dependent risk of infection, with younger cattle being more likely to become infected than older cattle. Our objective was to determine the age-dependent risk of infection of dairy cattle. We first reviewed unpublished data on the feeding patterns of proprietary concentrates for dairy-replacement cattle. These data showed that autumn- and spring-born cattle would receive different feeding patterns of proprietary concentrates, and so age-dependent risk of infection profiles were obtained separately for autumn- and spring-born cattle. We used back-calculation methods to analyse BSE-epidemic data collected in Great Britain between 1984 and 1996.

Dairy cattle were most at risk in the first 6 months of life; adult cattle were at relatively low risk of infection. Between 6 and 24 months of age, risk profiles reflected feeding patterns of proprietary concentrates in each of the autumn- and spring-born cohorts.     

An analysis of the demand for and revenue from companion animal veterinary services in Australia between 1996 and 2026 using industry revenue data and household census and pet ownership data and forecasts

OBJECTIVE To examine the potential impact of household demographic and pet ownership trends on the demand for and revenue from companion animal veterinary services in Australia. DESIGN The size of the market for companion animal veterinary services was estimated by creating a model using assumptions derived from the revenue equation. The model was verified and validated through sensitivity analyses and comparisons between model outputs and available industry data. RESULTS The model provided outputs similar to alternative industry estimates and suggested that revenue growth in recent years has been much stronger than demand growth. Under the assumptions used in this model, forecast changes to household numbers and types are less important than pet ownership trends in determining the potential demand for and revenue from companion animal veterinary services. Forecast trends in household types and relatively stable pet ownership in the future will lead to growth in demand for companion animal veterinary services in real terms of approximately 1.2% per annum to 2026. CONCLUSION The market for companion animal veterinary services in Australia is mature and growth in demand is expected to remain low over the forecast period. For most veterinary practices within this environment, growth in revenue will be a function of growth in average client fees.     

Age-dependent patterns of bovine tuberculosis in cattle

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an important livestock disease, seriously impacting cattle industries in both industrialised and pre-industrialised countries. Like TB in other mammals, infection is life long and, if undiagnosed, may progress to disease years after exposure. The risk of disease in humans is highly age-dependent, however in cattle, age-dependent risks have yet to be quantified, largely due to insufficient data and limited diagnostics. Here, we estimate age-specific reactor rates in Great Britain by combining herd-level testing data with spatial movement data from the Cattle Tracing System (CTS). Using a catalytic model, we find strong age dependencies in infection risk and that the probability of detecting infection increases with age. Between 2004 and 2009, infection incidence in cattle fluctuated around 1%. Age-specific incidence increased monotonically until 24–36 months, with cattle aged between 12 and 36 months experiencing the highest rates of infection. Beef and dairy cattle under 24 months experienced similar infection risks, however major differences occurred in older ages. The average reproductive number in cattle was greater than 1 for the years 2004–2009. These methods reveal a consistent pattern of BTB rates with age, across different population structures and testing patterns. The results provide practical insights into BTB epidemiology and control, suggesting that targeting a mass control programme at cattle between 12 and 36 months could be beneficial.     

Genetic and environmental factors influencing mortality up to weaning of Bruna dels Pirineus beef calves in mountain areas. A survival analysis

Survival analysis techniques were used to analyze survival up to weaning of beef calves in the Pyrenean mountains areas of Catalonia, Spain. The Kaplan-Meier curve showed that the survival experience was not constant throughout the lactation period, as the mortality rate was more pronounced during the first month of life. The proportional hazards model analysis showed that several factors influenced the instantaneous mortality rate, with the herd-year effect having the strongest influence. Calves born in the first part of the breeding season, from September to February, had the lowest mortality risk (P < 0.001), showing that mortality risk increases as births accumulate. Calves from cows younger than 1,300 d of productive life had a higher risk of mortality (P < 0.05). Unassisted calvings presented the smallest risk of mortality, and mortality risk increased up to five times as birth became more difficult (P < 0.001). This risk also tended to increase slightly when calf birth weight was small (P < 0.10); for bigger calves, no increase of risk was detected, probably because calving difficulty was included in the model. These results suggest the need for improving the environment in the second part of the breeding period and paying more attention to births from younger cows. The survival curve fitted a parametric piecewise exponential function very well, with cut points at 16 and 32 d. The lower risk corresponded to the period of 33 to 180 d, the risk for the periods 17 to 32 d and 1 to 16 d being multiplied by 7 and 26, respectively. Confirming the robustness of the Cox model, the relative risks estimated for the different factors under this piecewise exponential model or a Weibull time-dependent model were similar to those reported above, as well as to those estimated under a frailty model, including the sire as a random effect. The modal estimates of sire variance under different baseline functions were close to 0.3, although the standard errors were very large. At weaning, the heritability estimate in the binary scale reached a value of only 0.037 because the survival at weaning was very high (96.9%) in this population. Nevertheless, in populations with a higher mortality, the inclusion of survival to weaning in the breeding objective might be justified. Overall, these results show that survival analysis is a powerful tool to analyze the mortality curve until weaning of beef calves.     

Life expectancy in a birth cohort of Boxers followed up from weaning to 10 years of age

OBJECTIVE: To determine mortality rate over time, risk factors for death, and heritability of life expectancy in Boxers. ANIMALS: 1,733 purebred Boxers born in The Netherlands between January 1994 and March 1995. PROCEDURE: Dogs were followed up from weaning (ie, 49 days of age) to 10 years of age through use of a written questionnaire sent to owners every 6 months. Mortality rate over time, risk factors potentially associated with death, and heritability of life expectancy were examined by use of a proportional hazards model based on the Weibull distribution. RESULTS: stimated mortality rate during the 10-year study period for this birth cohort of Boxers was 45%. The probability of surviving to 5 years of age was 88%; the probability of surviving to 10 years of age was 55%. Estimated effective heritability of life expectancy was 0.076, meaning that in this population, an estimated 76% of the observed variation in life expectancy could be attributed to genetic differences among dogs that were passed from parents to their offspring. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results suggest that cumulative incidence of death from weaning to 10 years of age among this birth cohort of Boxers was 45%. The estimated heritability of life expectancy suggested that life expectancy can be improved by use of selective breeding.     

The incidence, calf morbidity and mortality due to Theileria parva infections in smallholder dairy farms in Murang'a District, Kenya

A prospective observational study was conducted among smallholder dairy farmers in Murang'a District, Kenya, to estimate the incidence of Theileria parva infections, as well as calf morbidity and mortality caused by the infection. The study was conducted between March 1995 and August 1996, in five cohorts of female calves from birth to six months of age from different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and grazing-system strata shown previously to have varying prevalences of T. parva infection. A total of 188 smallholder dairy farms with 225 female calves were selected purposively by five AEZ-grazing strata. All recruited calves were visited within the first two weeks of life and thereafter at biweekly intervals up to the age of six months. The mean number of cattle in these smallholder farms was 2.6. Both exotic and indigenous breeds of cattle and their crosses were present, with the former predominating. The incidence (27-54%) of sero-conversion to T. parva in an ELISA test was significantly different (p < 0.05) across the five AEZ-grazing strata and increased with lower elevation and unrestricted grazing. Calf morbidity and mortality were also variable across the AEZ-grazing strata. East Coast fever (ECF) was the highest-incidence cause calf morbidity and mortality (relative to other diseases). There are great differences in the epidemiology of ECF within a small area and this implies that there is need to carefully consider different ECF control strategies in different AEZ-grazing strata.