Regional Growth Dynamics in the Service Sector: The Determinants of Employment Change in UK Regions, 1971–2005

There is a need to better understand the dynamics relating to the evolving economic structure of regions, in particular factors concerning deindustrialisation and the growth of services. In order to unpick the dynamics relating to contemporary regional evolution, this paper examines regional employment in the UK's services sectors from 1971 to 2005. The analysis utilises the statistical technique of multi‐factor partitioning to examine the evolutionary dynamics of employment change in the UK service sector. Overall, differing growth trajectories in services employment across regions appear to be the result of the different underlying industrial structures observed within the regions themselves. The findings indicate that the industrial structure of a region has a significant influence on employment change in services, with related variety being of greater consequence than specialisation. This suggests that diversity, or urbanisation, effects have a greater influence than specialisation effects on “lighter” industries than “heavier” industries. Spatio‐temporal variations within the development of services are evident in the analysis, and there is evidence of convergence across the regions for all sub‐sectors examined. It concludes that in an increasingly services‐dominated economy, diversity and related variety have some weight in explaining regional development paths.     

Servicing Our Economy: Producer Service Location and Government Procurement 2004–2010 in the Washington DC Metropolitan Area

Harrington and Campbell (1997) previously illuminated the pattern of producer services' suburbanization in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area between 1970 and 1992. Their results showed producer services growing at a faster rate at locations farther from the central city. We revisit the topic utilizing data from 2004 to 2010, assessing not only changes in the distribution of producer services since their work, but also the impact of massive increases in defense spending on producer services' growth throughout the first decade of the twenty‐first century. Multivariate linear regression is used to estimate per capita growth of producer services employment using six independent variables. Our results reveal producer services employment during the time period has grown significantly more quickly in the urban D.C. core than the outer suburbs, contrary to Harrington and Campbell's research. Additionally, we find per capita producer services employment is self‐limiting over the study period: locations with more producer services employment in 2004 experienced significantly less producer services growth over the period. We find federal procurement has no correlation on producer services overall, with limited effects on some subsectors. Analyzing a select group of producer services subsectors revealed that no sectors followed the overall model exactly, suggesting that targeting producer services for growth must be done carefully. None of our models show employment diversity to be a factor in differentiating economic growth at the intra‐metropolitan level.     

Change in the Concentration of Employment in Computer Services: Spatial Estimation at the U.S. Metro County Level

ABSTRACT This article models the concentration of computer services activity across the U.S. with factors that incorporate spatial relationships. Specifically, we enhance the standard home‐area study with an analysis that allows conditions in neighboring counties to affect the concentration of employment in the home county. We use county‐level data for metropolitan areas between 1990 and 1997. To measure change in employment concentration, we use the change in location quotients for SIC 737, which captures employment concentration changes caused by both the number of firms and the scale of their activity relative to the national average. After controlling for local demand for computer services, our results support the importance of the presence of a qualified labor supply, interindustry linkages, proximity to a major airport, and spatial processes in explaining changes in computer services employment concentration, finding little support for the influence of cost factors. Our enhanced model reveals interjurisdictional relationships among these metro counties that could not be captured with standard estimates by state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), or county. Using counties within MSAs, therefore, provides more general results than case studies but still allows measurement of local interactions.     

The Impact of the Maquiladora Industry on U.S. Border Cities

For decades, the maquiladora industry has been a major economic engine along the U.S.–Mexico border. Since the 1970s, researchers have analyzed how the maquiladora industry affects cities along both sides of the border. Hanson produced the first comprehensive study on the impact of the maquiladoras on U.S. border cities, considering the effects of in‐bond plants on both employment and wages. His estimates became useful rules of thumb for the entire U.S.–Mexico border; however, they have become dated. Using Hanson's framework, we estimate the maquiladora industry impact on U.S. border cities from 1990 to 2006. We find that a 10 percent increase in maquiladora production leads to a 0.5 to 0.9 percent increase in employment. We also find large differences among individual border cities. Furthermore, we estimate the cross‐border maquiladora impacts before and after 2001 when border security begins to rise, and the global low‐wage competition intensified after China joined the World Trade Organization. Empirical results indicate that U.S. border cities are less responsive to growth in maquiladora production from 2001 to 2006 than in the earlier period; however, when looking into specific sectors, we find that U.S. border city employment in service sectors is more responsive post‐2001.     

Globalization and Regional Change in the U.S. Furniture Industry

ABSTRACT Furniture manufacturing has experienced rapid globalization in recent years. This is mainly the result of global production networks established by large manufacturers and retailers seeking to reduce costs in a highly competitive environment. The industry's globalization has been facilitated by technological innovations and the global reduction of trade and investment barriers. In the U.S., furniture‐producing regions are experiencing tumultuous change. Growing numbers of firms are outsourcing production to China, which is now responsible for about half of all U.S. furniture imports. Employment levels have plummeted. However, an analysis of spatial patterns of employment, output, and capital investment in U.S. furniture manufacturing shows that regional change is not uniform. Southern regions characterized by larger firms specializing in wooden case goods production have been especially vulnerable to job loss.     

Integrating Economic Base Theory with Regional Adjustment Models: The Nonmetropolitan Rocky Mountain West

ABSTRACT Interest in the use of adjustment models has recently increased as analysts have come to see the value of these models in the study of regional growth processes. Adjustment models are especially useful in clarifying the nature and direction of population-employment interactions. However, other models of regional growth suggest that employment should not be treated as a single homogeneous variable, as is the usual assumption in regional adjustment models. This paper looks at the issue of employment disaggregation, and suggests that adjustment models can be alternatively specified by making use of economic base theory to separate employment into at least two broad sectors. Alternative economic base specifications are tested using data for the nonmetropolitan counties (n=254) of the US. Rocky Mountain West during a recent time period. The results show that an economic base version of the adjustment model provides insights to regional change that are not available from the traditional version of the model.     

Manufacturing Output Indexes for a Metropolitan Area: A Look at New Economic Indicators

The purpose of this paper is to construct monthly manufacturing output indexes for a metropolitan area, employing a method used by the Federal Reserve Banks to construct regional manufacturing indexes. The Tulsa metropolitan area is the region considered. The index of total manufacturing output is included in a vector autoregression model of the Tulsa economy. The results indicate that the linkages between manufacturing activity and non-manufacturing employment differ from the linkages between employment in those sectors, and that since the early 1980s both sectors have become less sensitive to changes in the price of oil.     

Fluctuations and Downturns in a “Company Town”

ABSTRACT A semi-structural VAR time-series model was used to examine movements in Flint Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) employment levels and determine how area employment was affected by movements in different sectors of the U.S. economy. Flint was chosen because in 1958 over 50 percent of the area's population was employed by the transportation industry, the majority in automobile production, and therefore Flint should be considered as a company town prototype for this modeling technique. Due to the dependency of this area's employment base on the automotive industry and the highly volatile nature of area employment levels, the Choleski decomposition was used instead of the structural Bernanke method. It was found that the effects of movements in the automotive industry were a major impact on aggregate area employment as well as on virtually all manufacturing sectors. These results are more robust than those for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (PSA) ¹ 1 As found in Rushen (1993).
. This is due primarily to Flint's greater degree of area dependency on the automotive-industry.     

Global Markets and the Role of Geographical Proximity in Mexico's Employment Growth

In the context of greater economic integration with global markets and structural economic reforms, this paper analyses regional and sectoral employment growth dynamics in Mexican states between 2004 and 2014. The methodology is based on spatial shift‐share analysis that explicitly considers interregional interactions in employment while assessing potential spillover effects arising from spatial interactions among states and industrial sectors. The results suggest a competitive effect from some industries—such as those related to science and specialized suppliers, intensive scale industries and dominated providers—which led to the formation of industrial corridors of neighboring states that connect the central region with the northeast region of the country. It was also found that proximity to states such as Nuevo Leon, Queretaro, Guanajuato, San Luis Potosi, and Puebla has positively influenced neighboring states in terms of employment growth rates. The results also support the argument of some sort of de‐concentration of economic activity in the capital, Mexico City, toward neighboring states.     

Urban–Rural Differences in Internet Usage,e‐Commerce,and e‐Banking: Evidence from Italy

ABSTRACT By reducing the cost of performing isolated economic activities in remote areas, information technology might serve as a substitute for urban agglomeration. The paper assesses this hypothesis using data on Italian households' usage of the Internet, e‐commerce, and e‐banking. The results do not support the argument that the Internet reduces the role of distance. Internet usage is much more frequent among urban consumers than among their non‐urban counterparts. The use of e‐commerce is basically unaffected by the size of the city where the household lives. Geographically remote consumers are discouraged from purchasing goods by the fact that they cannot inspect them beforehand. Leisure activities and cultural items (i.e., books, CDs, and tickets for museums and theaters) are the only goods and services for which e‐commerce is used more in isolated areas. Finally, e‐banking bears no relationship to city size. In choosing a bank, non‐urban customers give more importance to personal acquaintance than do urban clients, partly because bank account holders in remote areas are more likely to have taken out a loan from their bank.     

Changing Employment Profiles and Growth: An Economic Base Study of Florida Counties (1982–1987)

Location Quotients are used to estimate economic base multipliers for two-digit Standard Industrial Classification employment data at the county level for the state of Florida. Changes in multipliers are contrasted to changes in county employment profiles and demographic trends for the period 1982 to 1987. Counties are then classified by employment and growth characteristics. A cross-sectional econometric model is constructed to explain regional shifts in total employment. It is demonstrated that although the Florida economy is supported by a low level of employment activity in primary and secondary sectors (relative to the tertiary sector), these sectors tend to be very important in explaining variations in regional economic growth. The empirical findings suggest that the alleged service-oriented economy of Florida is still reliant upon export-oriented activity as the catalyst for employment expansion.     

Factors Driving the Population Growth and Decline of Portuguese Cities

Despite the worldwide trend of urbanisation, data reveal that some cities are growing whereas others are losing inhabitants. To assess such dynamics in Portuguese cities, demographic, employment, housing, and climate variables were analysed as possible drivers of population change for the period 1991–2011. Panel data models show that higher shares of employment in the secondary and tertiary sectors, higher maximum temperatures, and a higher proportion of middle‐aged vacant houses act as pull factors attracting inhabitants, whereas a higher unemployment rate is a push factor for cities.     

Productivity Change in Manufacturing Regions: A Multifactor/Shift-Share Approach

ABSTRACT The traditional shift-share model measures the combined effects of output growth and productivity change on employment. A region with above average employment growth either has a favorable industry mix or enjoys a competitive advantage over other regions. To separate the effects of output and productivity, the shift-share model is extended to decompose the effects of changes in output and productivity on employment. This paper modifies the Rigby-Anderson extension by separating the contribution of labor and capital to productivity growth in the analysis of regional economic performance, and investigates twenty (two-digit SIC) manufacturing sectors in twelve states (six snowbelt, six sunbelt states) to assess whether observed changes in employment were due to changes in output or to productivity.     

Impacts of IT Advances and E‐commerce on Transportation in Producer Services

ABSTRACT Producer services have been among the most rapidly growing industries, as measured by employment, in the United States and in Europe in recent decades. The production and delivery of these specialized forms of service industry work require the use of transportation and communications systems in a variety of ways, including the physical movement of people working in these industries, as well as the movement of the information related to the production and distribution of their work. Some of this work is performed in localized markets, requiring travel between clients and suppliers in local transportation modes, such as auto, bus, or other types of transportation. Other work is done by specialists who travel interregionally and globally to do their work, primarily traveling to their clients. There is little knowledge of how these production relationships have changed with the advent of the Internet and the widespread use of e‐mail in the business production process. Within the framework of this STELLA initiative, this paper outlines research needs in this area, and frames an approach that would produce badly needed knowledge about impacts on the producer services of the Internet and related e‐commerce initiatives on physical transportation systems at a local to interregional scale.     

Private Government Formation in the DC Metropolitan Area

ABSTRACT This paper examines a variety of quasi-governmental organizations, mandatory homeowners' associations, special service districts, and transportation management associations, recently established in the urban region. Using the Washington, DC metropolitan area as a case study, this paper explores reasons for their development and implications of them for urban governance. It is argued that these organizations marry the concepts of public special districts and public-private partnerships in a process of private government formation. Private governments, it is suggested, are not wholly a private response to the shedding of services by the public sector, the dominant notion of privatization and local state restructuring, but the result of demands emerging in the private sector stimulated by social and spatial change. This signals the need to add to the concept of public-driven privatization the process of private initiated change where the resulting goods and services are more fully shaped by the needs of private interests. The evidence suggests these institutions do not represent a scaling back of the local state as privatization implies, but an extension of state structures in a fundamentally new direction, an extension which could be labeled the parallel state.     

气候变化对中国农业的影响研究进展

（1湖北三峡职业技术学院,宜昌 443000;2中国农科院农业环境与可持续发展所,北京 100081）     

Integrating Firm Dynamics into the Shift‐Share Framework

ABSTRACT This article integrates firm birth and death data into a shift‐share analysis framework. The proposed methodology can be used when data availability does not allow for the direct association of employment changes to business demographics at the regional level. It may be also used as an exploratory step before any explanatory econometric work is undertaken as a means of identifying classes of potential control variables. Applying the method to Greek data suggests that firm‐size heterogeneity should not be ignored, that local conditions matter more than regional economic structure, and that the latter are asymmetrical across sectors when it comes to the effects of business demographics on regional employment or output growth.     

Are Business Services Immune to the Business Cycle?

Should an economic development strategy target the business services industry to insulate the local economy from the business cycle? The relationship between business services employment (SIC 73) and measures of the business cycle is analyzed at national and metropolitan-area levels. At the national level, certain components of business services are not immune to the business cycle while others are. At the metropolitan level, certain characteristics of the metropolitan area and its industrial structure are identified which would result in business services employment being procyclical or not immune to the business cycle.     

人民币汇率升值对中国粮食安全影响的一般均衡金融模型分析

通过构建一般均衡金融模型,分析了汇率变化对中国粮食安全的影响。模拟结果显示,现有中国经济增长条件下,人民币升值5%、10%、20%,对中国经济增长产生了较为持久的负面影响。与工业部门一样,人民币升值对农业部门也产生了产出、就业、投资及产出价格下降的严重影响,这种影响关系到农产品生产和供给,与中国的粮食安全息息相关,自2005年以来,人民币实际升值22%,过去的几年中,除粮食生产外,中国农产品生产遭受诸多价格风险,理论上,隐藏在农产品价格风险背后的因素,人民币升值有一定的作用。所以,人民币升值进程中,必须密切关注中国的农产品生产特别是粮食生产的安全。     

Accessibility,Diversity, Environmental Quality and the Dynamics of Intra‐Urban Population and Employment Location

This paper investigates intra‐urban population and employment shifts over 1980–2000, using the Cincinnati Metropolitan Area as a case study. Population and employment are disaggregated by ethnicity (White, Black, Others) and industry (10 sectors) to better capture different location behaviors. Inter‐industry relationships are considered when constructing accessibility variables. Additional diversity, locational and socio‐economic variables are included. A location‐specific index of air quality is also considered, as a proxy for environmental quality. A structural equation model is specified to account for the dynamic interactions between populations, activities, and air quality. The results reveal strong interactions between ethnic groups, confirm the existence of agglomeration effects, and suggest that diversity has positive effects on both firms and households in both periods (1980–1990 and 1990–2000). For firms, better access to their potential customers and employees is more important than better access to their input–output sectors. Better air quality attracts population, which in turn worsens it. The results reveal changing dynamics, from 1980–1990 to 1990–2000, for different population and activity groups, and suggest that overall, firm location behaviors are more stable than household behaviors.