Manufacturing Output Indexes for a Metropolitan Area: A Look at New Economic Indicators

The purpose of this paper is to construct monthly manufacturing output indexes for a metropolitan area, employing a method used by the Federal Reserve Banks to construct regional manufacturing indexes. The Tulsa metropolitan area is the region considered. The index of total manufacturing output is included in a vector autoregression model of the Tulsa economy. The results indicate that the linkages between manufacturing activity and non-manufacturing employment differ from the linkages between employment in those sectors, and that since the early 1980s both sectors have become less sensitive to changes in the price of oil.     

Retail Business Adjustment in Rural Hierarchies

Many rural hierarchies are becoming increasingly dominated by a few regional growth centers while the retail sector in adjacent smaller communities either stagnates or declines. This study tests the hypothesis that the rate of adjustment of the retail sector to changing consumer spending patterns is uniform across different ordered communities in a rural hierarchy. Neoclassical investment theory is combined with central place theory to develop a conceptual model of the relationship between the retail sector and investment in a community. A three tiered 49 community hierarchy is constructed using data from the Minnesota Department of Revenue and the Report of Condition and Income of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. A crosssectional time series ordinary least squares regression model is employed to estimate retail coefficients of adjustment for the hypothesis testing. Regional estimates indicate only partial adjustment in the retail sector across the whole hierarchy to shifts in consumer spending patterns. Community estimates, which decompose the regional estimate, indicate retail businesses in the largest and mid-sized communities adjust totally in one period, but that retail businesses in the smallest communities do not. The faster rates of adjustment by retail businesses in the larger communities to changing consumer spending patterns may augment the development of regional growth centers in rural areas.     

Globalization and Regional Change in the U.S. Furniture Industry

ABSTRACT Furniture manufacturing has experienced rapid globalization in recent years. This is mainly the result of global production networks established by large manufacturers and retailers seeking to reduce costs in a highly competitive environment. The industry's globalization has been facilitated by technological innovations and the global reduction of trade and investment barriers. In the U.S., furniture‐producing regions are experiencing tumultuous change. Growing numbers of firms are outsourcing production to China, which is now responsible for about half of all U.S. furniture imports. Employment levels have plummeted. However, an analysis of spatial patterns of employment, output, and capital investment in U.S. furniture manufacturing shows that regional change is not uniform. Southern regions characterized by larger firms specializing in wooden case goods production have been especially vulnerable to job loss.     

Investment,Capital Stocks and the Age of Capital in U.S. Regions

ABSTRACT This paper outlines a conventional method of constructing regional capital stocks using investment and depreciation data. The method was used to estimate annual capital stocks for twenty (two-digit SIC) manufacturing industries in the nine census regions of the US. between 1955 and 1989. The novelty of the paper is the disaggregated capital stock data generated. Those data reveal that the industrial distribution of capital is becoming increasingly similar among regions of the U.S. They also show the familiar snowbelt-sunbelt shift of manufacturing capacity. Statistical tests establish that the redistribution of regional net capital stocks between 1955 and 1989 is significant in sixteen of twenty industries and that in ten of these sectors the most pronounced shifts in capacity occurred before the early 1970s. As investment moved away from the old manufacturing heartland, the age of capital in the mid Atlantic and east north central states increased and the age structure of capital stocks became relatively youthful in the west. Age pyramids reveal that regional variations in the age distribution of capital and the average age of capital were greater in 1989 than in 1955. Models of embodied technological change claim that the age of capital is a useful surrogate of best-practice technology.     

Growth and Location of Economic Activity: The Spatial Dynamics of Industries in Canada 1971–2001

ABSTRACT A growing literature has accumulated that points to the stability of industrial location patterns. Can this be reconciled with spatial dynamics? This article starts with the premise that demonstrable regularities exist in the manner in which individual industries locate (and relocate) over space. For Canada, spatial distributions of employment are examined for seventy‐one industries over a thirty‐year period (1971–2001). Industry data is organized by “synthetic regions” based on urban size and distance criteria. “Typical” location patterns are identified for industry groupings. Industrial spatial concentrations are then compared over time using correlation analysis, showing a high degree of stability. Stable industrial location patterns are not, the article finds, incompatible with differential regional growth. Five spatial processes are identified, driving change. The chief driving force is the propensity of dynamic industries to start up in large metro areas, setting off a process of diffusion (for services) and crowding out (for manufacturing), offset by the centralizing impact of greater consumer mobility and falling transport costs. These changes do not, however, significantly alter the relative spatial distribution of most industries over time.     

Who leads regional industrial dynamics? “New industry creators” in Chinese regions

Recent evolutionary economic geography studies have argued that regional diversification emerges as a path‐dependent process, as regions often branch into industries that are related to its industrial structure. However, it is less clear who are creating new industries and under what regional conditions. This research seeks to fill this gap and identify “new industry creators” in regional industrial diversification. We differentiate two types of new industry formation—path‐breaking and path‐dependent—and examine whether some new industry creators are more path‐breaking than others, by incorporating two factors that have been largely overlooked in recent literature on technological relatedness—firm heterogeneity and regional institutions. Based on a firm‐level data set of China’s manufacturing industries, this paper shows that path‐breaking and path‐dependence coexist. Empirical results confirm that firm heterogeneity and regional institutions not only affect the firms’ capabilities in creating new industries, but also encourage/discourage firms to be adventurous and path‐breaking. This research implies that lagging regions can catch up with developed regions by coordinating regional resources and adjusting local institutional arrangements to attract more path‐breaking firms.     

Shift‐Share Analysis and Changes in Japanese Manufacturing Employment

Shift‐share analysis is used to examine the role of spatial structure on changes in regional manufacturing employment, in contrast to the traditional focus of shift‐share studies on the role of industrial structure. It is argued that changes in a region's space‐economy can be understood not only in terms of the economic subdivisions of the region but also in terms of the contribution of its spatial subdivisions. The latter is illustrated by means of a case study of the contribution of different types of local area to changes in regional manufacturing employment in Japan. Each region was subdivided into four types of local area based on population density. The analysis covered the period from 1981 to 1995, a time of major transformation in Japan's space‐economy. The shift‐share model was also used to estimate the impact of local area output and productivity on changes in regional employment. In general, the results show that there was a progressive underdevelopment of the core regions, associated with falling output and productivity. The country's peripheral regions were characterized by development, associated with rising output and productivity. Atthe local scale, however, the picture is far more complex. Types of local area contributed to regional employment change in very different ways, with respect to both time, region, and output/productivity. The contribution of local spatial structure to the regional space‐economy of Japan is fundamentally fragmented and uneven.     

The Impact of Output and Productivity Changes on Manufacturing Employment

Traditional univariate shift-share studies of employment provide an unreliable indicator of the relative performance of a region or an industry for they fail to separate the effects of output and productivity change on the demand for labor. An extended shift-share model is proposed that overcomes this weakness and permits identification of different processes of regional development. This model is used to investigate annual employment change in twenty (two-digit SIC) manufacturing industries in nine census regions of the U.S. between 1950 and 1986. The timing and depth of the exodus of manufacturing jobs from the snowbelt to the sunbelt is illustrated along with the business cycle performance of industries and regions. Productivity growth in the sunbelt is positively associated with rapid output expansion, whereas in the snowbelt it is associated with the loss of market share and economic rationalization.     

Prediction of winter wheat cultivar performance in Germany: At national,regional and location scale

Winter wheat cultivar recommendation is usually based on the cultivar performance observed in post-registration trials. In Germany, official recommendations are based on state cultivar trials, which are conducted individually by the federal states, usually over a period of three years. In each predefined winter wheat cultivation region a subset of registered cultivars is tested. The recommendation in a particular region is mainly based on the yields from trials on several locations in this region. Practically, the farmer's interest is a prediction of the yielding ability of cultivars on his own farm in the following growing season. This prediction can be made based on data from different scales, and with one year or multiple-year data. Here, we evaluated the prediction ability with the data from national, regional and location scales per se, and tried to find the optimal information source (scale and number of years) to predict the relative yield of a specific cultivar for a specific location. For this purpose, data from the country wide value testing trials from 1991 to 2001 carried out by the Federal Office of Plant Varieties (Bundessortenamt) were used. Winter wheat cultivation regions were adopted according to the German convention which gives the chance of further dividing the data into regional subgroups. The results of the analyses indicate that for a given location, the two years regional data have the highest predictive power for superior cultivars. Two years’ data from that specific location give the highest predictive power for intermediate and inferior cultivars. In general, the predictive power of single year data is much lower than of two years data. The results confirm the merit of the definition of different cultivation regions. By proper definition of regions, the multiple year data collected within the region have high predictive power for the cultivar performance for the locations within that region.     

The Changing Regional Structure of the U.S. Economy

This paper utilizes newly available industry-specific historical measures of Gross Regional Product to highlight the changing regional structure of the U.S. economy between 1963 and 1986. During this period, the percentage of U.S. output produced in the eight different regions changed significantly. The largest changes occurred in the Great Lakes (?3.65 percent), Mideast (?3.32 percent), and Southeast (+3.64 percent). Four major industry sectors (Agriculture, Mining, Construction, and Government) declined in relative importance in all eight regions. Five major industry sectors (TCPU, Retail Trade, Wholesale Trade, FIRE, and Services) expanded in relative importance. Somewhat surprisingly, Manufacturing output expanded for the U.S. as a whole and for six of the eight regions. The perception of decline in the relative importance of manufacturing in the U.S. is clearly based on the dramatic declines in the once dominant manufacturing base of the Mideast and Great Lakes regions.     

The Influence of Industrial and Spatial Structure onCanada-U.S. Regional Trade

Data on trade flows between states and provinces in the year 1992 are analyzed in order to explore the regional structure of Canada–U.S.trade. An index of integration based on the these data shows significant variation in levels of interdependence across pairs of regions on opposite sides of the border. Most of this variation appears to stem from patterns of intermediate goods trade. Further analysis is conducted to distinguish between pairs of regions with similar industrial structures which are highly integrated due to intra-industry trade and pairs with complementary industrial structures that are highly integrated due to inter-industry trade. The friction of distance appears to play a major role in distinguishing between these two types of relationships. Specifically, trade can be quite strong between regions with similar industrial structures, but this trade tends to be limited to regions in close geographic proximity. As the distance between regions increases, trade based on different but complementary industrial structures becomes increasingly dominant.     

The interactions between genotype,management and environment in regional crop modelling

Biophysical models to simulate crop yield are increasingly applied in regional climate impact assessments. When performing large-area simulations, there is often a paucity of data to spatially represent changes in genotype (G) and management (M) across different environments (E). The importance of this uncertainty source in simulation results is currently unclear. In this study, we used a variance-based sensitivity analysis to quantify the relative contribution of maize hybrid (i.e. G) and sowing date (i.e. M) to the variability in biomass yield (Y_T, total above-ground biomass) and harvest index (HI, fraction of grain in total yield) of irrigated silage maize, across the extent of arable lands in New Zealand (i.e. E). Using a locally calibrated crop model (APSIM-maize), 25 G x M scenarios were simulated at a 5 arc minute resolution (∼5 km grid cell) using 30 years of historical weather data. Our results indicate that the impact of limited knowledge on G and M parameters depends on E and differs between model outputs. Specifically, the sensitivity of Y_T and HI to genotype and sowing date combinations showed different patterns across locations. The absolute impact of G and M factors was consistently greater in the colder southern regions of New Zealand. However, the relative share of total variability explained by each factor, the sensitivity index (S_i), showed distinct spatial patterns for the two output variables. The Y_T was more sensitive than HI in the warmer northern regions where absolute variability was the smallest. These patterns were characterised by a systematic response of S_i to environmental drivers. For example, the sensitivity of Y_T and HI to hybrid maturity consistently increased with temperature. For the irrigated conditions assumed in our study, inter-annual weather conditions explained a higher share of total variability in the southern colder regions. Our results suggest that the development of methods and datasets to more accurately represent spatio-temporal G and M variability can reduce uncertainty in regional modelling assessments at different degrees, depending on prevailing environmental conditions and the output variable of interest.     

Characterizing functionally integrated regions in the Central Yangtze River Megaregion from a city-network perspective

The past decade has witnessed a blossoming of megaregional plans throughout China. However, it is still unclear whether megaregions delineated in these plans are based on a functionally integrated foundation or imagined by the government. This study takes the Central Yangtze River Megaregion (CYRM)—a cross-jurisdictional megaregion planned as a leading regional integration platform in Central China—as a case to examine the mismatch between the governmentally designated regions and functionally integrated regions. Specifically, this research employs the community detection algorithm to identify functionally integrated regions within the CYRM based on producer services networks, then associate the formation of these network-based regions with territorial factors. The results show that the integration of identified first-tier functional regions is subject to the provincial administrative divisions; whereas, the locally planned regions comply with the second-tier functionally integrated regions spatially. Besides, the regression results indicate that the territorial factors are significantly associated with the above spatial patterns. Hence, the region-making practices initiated by the local governments rather than the central government, are more consistent with the conditions of regional economic development.     

European Regional Convergence Revisited: A Weighted Least Squares Approach

A plethora of past studies have concluded that unconditional β‐convergence is present in a broad sample of regions, implying that poor regions grow faster than rich ones. All these econometric studies tend to overlook the relative importance or size of each region in the national setting, treating all regional observations as equal. However, this assumption might lead to unrealistic or misleading results. Convergence analysis could be more meaningful if it included a weighting mechanism taking into account the size of regions. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the inclusion of a weighting mechanism in β‐convergence analysis, giving more weight to larger regions and less to smaller ones, can result in sharply different implications for the regional convergence‐divergence process. For this reason, both unweighted ordinary least squares (OLS) and weighted least squares estimators are used in the analysis of regional (intra‐national) convergence within 10 European Union (EU) countries over the period 1990–2000. The comparison between the two methods reveals that when regions are appropriately weighted for their size, intra‐national divergence, rather than convergence found with the OLS approach, seems to be the dominant experience in the EU.     

Innovation and Regional Growth in the Enlarged Europe: The Role of Local Innovative Capabilities,Peripherality, and Education

ABSTRACT In this paper, a formal model for the relationship between innovation and growth in European Union regions is developed drawing upon the theoretical contribution of the systems of innovation approach. The model combines the analytical approach of the regional growth models with the insights of the systemic approach. The cross‐sectional analysis, covering all the Enlarged Europe (EU‐25) regions (for which data are available), shows that regional innovative activities (for which a specific measure is developed) play a significant role in determining differential regional growth patterns. Furthermore, the model sheds light on how geographical accessibility and human capital accumulation, by shaping the regional system of innovation, interact (in a statistically significant way) with local innovative activities, thus allowing them to be more (or less) effectively translated into economic growth. The paper shows that an increase in innovative effort is not necessarily likely to produce the same effect in all EU‐25 regions. Indeed, the empirical analysis suggests that in order to allow innovative efforts in peripheral regions to be as productive as in core areas, they need to be complemented by huge investments in human capital.     

羌塘国家自然保护区植被生长季NDVI时空变化及其对气候变化的响应

为详细了解羌塘国家级自然保护区生长季NDVI时空特征及其对气候变化的响应,使用MODIS传感器的生长季归一化植被指数(NDVI),计算2000—2020年羌塘国家级自然保护区各功能区生长季NDVI变化趋势和稳定性,结合中国第一代大气和陆面再分析产品(CRA/LAND)研究NDVI对气候变化的响应。结果表明：（1）保护区多年植被生长季NDVI均值为0.02~0.55,平均值为0.138,呈现由东南向西北逐渐减小的空间分布特征。（2）保护区86.39%的面积区域植被生长季（6—9月）NDVI呈缓慢上升趋势,并且大部分区域达到显著水平(P<0.05),剩余13.61%的面积区域植被生长季NDVI处于下降趋势,其中只有极少部分区域达到显著性水平(P<0.05);总体植被状况随时间变化呈变好趋势。（3）2000年以来保护区的生长季NDVI稳定性较差,NDVI≤0.1的大部分区域处于较低稳定度,较低稳定度和中等稳定度面积之和占整个研究区域面积的86.66%。（4）保护区在植被生长季气候趋向于“暖湿化”;气温与降水量对保护区生长季NDVI都有重要的正向影响。研究结论能为气候变化背景下该区域植被生态保护提供一定科学依据。     

Regional Business Cycles and the Emergence of Sheltered Economies in the Southern Periphery of Europe

ABSTRACT Recent research has highlighted that in the last few years, the evolution of regional disparities in many European states has become pro‐cyclical. This represents a change with respect to the predominantly anti‐cyclical pattern of the 1960s and 1970s. This paper addresses the question of whether and when this change has taken place in the southern periphery of Europe, before analysing the factors that may have played a role in such a change. The analysis relies on a regional database that includes the evolution of the GDP per capita of NUTS II regions in five European countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) between 1980 and 2000. The results of the analysis support the hypothesis of a change towards a pro‐cyclical evolution of regional disparities in the cases of Italy, Portugal, and Spain, but not in those of Greece and France. A relationship between these pro‐cyclical patterns and the emergence of less dynamic sheltered economies is also detected in peripheral regions. This lack of dynamism is related to the fact that numerous peripheral areas in southern Europe have become increasingly dependent on factors such as transfers or public investment and employment, and therefore are less exposed to changes in market conditions.     

The geographically variegated connections of the Jakarta metropolitan area as produced by manufacturing firms

Connectivity in urban networks is often deemed to be an important feature of economically vibrant cities. Under conditions of contemporary globalization, the importance and geographies of these connections are increasingly variegated. Accordingly, various attempts have been made to analyse the external relations of cities and metropolitan regions, often through the lens of multilocational firms. Our purpose in this paper is to address the to‐date limited empirical knowledge about whether firms originating from different regions (i.e., firms with different headquarter [HQ] locations) create different patterns of inter‐urban relations. Drawing on the interlocking network model and using the Jakarta metropolitan area (JMA) as a case study, this paper explores how manufacturing firms with HQs either inside (further differentiating between the JMA and other cities) or outside (further differentiating between East Asian and non‐East Asian countries) Indonesia produce different patterns of external relations. Our findings indicate that each category of firms generates unique configurations of interurban relations for the JMA at the global and national scales. We argue that these variegated networks patterns not only reflect different locational strategies of firms, but also Indonesia's evolving policy orientations which have complex relations with evolving patterns of economic globalization.     

Regional Variation of Firm Size and Growth: The Portuguese Case

This paper analyses the patterns of firm growth of manufacturing firms across Portuguese regions. In particular, we compare firm size and growth in order to investigate 1) whether region‐specific characteristics, interpreted as generating localization economies, exert any influence on firm growth and size, and 2) whether there is evidence of persistence in firm growth across regions. Using an extensive dataset of Portuguese manufacturing firms and applying parametric and semi‐parametric approaches, we found that, in eleven of the eighteen analyzed regions, firm growth is related to firm size and therefore firms have no equal probabilities of attaining a particular growth rate within any given period. Moreover, the results uncovered that firms experience serial correlation in their growth patterns in all regions and region‐specific characteristics, such as industrial diversity, entrepreneurship potential, and workforce qualities, engender differences in the way firms grow. Thus, this paper adds to the literature by showing how geographic location matters to firm size and growth.     

Ever-transient FDI and ever-polarizing regional development: Revisiting conventional theories of regional development in the context of China,Southeast and South Asia

In this new age of globalization, regions attempt to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in order to achieve regionally balanced development. We revisit existing theories of regional development and FDI by analyzing recent data sets on FDI, employment, and trade in China, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Using Chinese provincial data in 2004, 2008, and 2013 and applying panel estimations, our econometric results demonstrate that FDI remarkably influenced the concentration of employment in manufacturing, financial, and business services industries within the three Chinese macro-regions. We also find that FDI is ever transient, always moving away from high-cost to low-cost production bases across different regions. This transient nature of FDI is spatially selective and biased, and not able to generate the trickle-down effects to other neighboring regions. That is why FDI recently moved from China to Southeast and South Asia rather than from its coastal to inland regions. Furthermore, we show that this nature of FDI generally leads to polarization development for regions. As a synthesis or extension of the existing theories, we propose a leapfrog polarization pattern and strategy for vast developing countries in considering their regional development strategies.