Factors impacting yields in rain-fed paddies of the lower Mekong River Basin

The Mekong River Basin (MRB) is the biggest basin in Monsoon Asia. About 80% of the agricultural lands, which occupy about 40% of the basin are rain-fed paddy rice area. Therefore, it is assumed that changes in rain-fed paddy rice production affect the total agricultural production to a great degree in the Mekong River Basin. While there are many factors affecting the productivity of rain-fed paddies, such as climate, water use, rice varieties, applications of manure, fertilizer and agro-chemicals, sowing date and other agronomic practices, this paper focuses on the relation between rainfall and yields of rain-fed paddies. Agricultural statistics and rainfall data were collected and analyzed for all 24 provinces in Cambodia for the years 2001 and 2002. Factors such as soil fertility and other natural conditions were removed by comparing the yield and rainfall in one province for different years. Special attention was given to the relation between yields of paddy in the wet season and rainfall, considering factors such as rice varieties, soil fertility, irrigation ratio and the ratio of area damaged by flood, drought, and insect. Although it is not easy to assess those impact factors on yields because they are organically interactive, the following results were obtained: (1) The ratio of high yielding varieties (HYV), soil fertility, and irrigation ratio among many factors that affect yields individually, especially if they are combined, (2) Total rainfall did not have a significant influence on rice yields even for the rain-fed paddies if it was over 700 mm in wet season, and one of the reasons for this would be that there exist supplementary water uses through small ponds and water ponding in local land depressions in and around paddies.     

Estimation of supplementary water to paddy fields in the lower Mekong River basin during the dry season

Efficient management of water resources in paddy fields requires an understanding of the volume of supplementary water used. However, quantifying the volume is laborious due to the large amount of data that must be collected and analyzed. The purpose of our study was to estimate the volume of supplementary water used in paddy fields, based on several years of available statistical data, and to provide information on how much water can be supplied to paddy fields in each target area. In this study, the lower Mekong River basin of northeast Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia was selected as the study area. In the first step, we used agricultural statistics for each country, rainfall data acquired from the Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS), and the value of virtual water required per unit of rice production. Because several years of data were used for dry season harvested areas and rice production in each country, the supplementary water to paddy fields in each province was calculated using virtual water and rainfall. This method made it possible to estimate changes in supplementary water in each province. Through this study, the supplementary water to paddy fields during the dry season in three countries was approximated from the minimum number of data sets. Moreover, for cases in which it is not possible to procure agricultural water use data for a hydrological model simulation, an alternative solution is proposed.     

Development of an innovative conceptual model and a tiered testing strategy for the ecological risk assessment of rice pesticides

Rice paddies constitute a very special agrobiosystem, which for some circumstances, could be considered as a human driven wetland. The complexity of such dynamic systems is a key element for conducting ecological risk assessments, in addition, the proximity of rice paddies to areas of high ecological value must be considered. This paper presents a new conceptual model for conducting ecological risk assessments of pesticides and other agrochemicals in rice, based on a combination of three main elements, the source of the stressor, the exposed environmental compartments and the relevance of the ecological receptors. A tiered testing strategy, starting with the standard requirements for pesticides and moving to specific higher tier studies with three levels of risk refinement is also presented.     

Impact of seawater intrusion control on the environment,land use and household incomes in a coastal area

Agricultural production in the coastal wetlands of Asia is often hindered by salinity intrusion caused by tidal fluctuation. This paper reports changes in environmental and socio-economic conditions that followed the phased construction and operation of sluices for controlling seawater intrusion from 1994 –2000 in a coastal area of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam. Canal water salinity decreased rapidly upstream of sluices, allowing rice cropping intensification and increased rice production in the eastern part of the study area. However, the livelihoods of farmers in the western part were adversely affected due to cessation of supply of brackish water that was needed for brackish-water shrimp farming, while the acid sulphate soils present there posed problems for rice cultivation. The poor farmers and landless people suffered more because the fishery resource that they depended on declined sharply due to reduced salinity and increased acidity in the canal water. The findings confirmed that the environment and resource use in the coastal lands are very sensitive to external intervention. A clear understanding of the socio-economic and environmental impacts of salinity control measures in coastal areas can help planning to enhance farmers' incomes while minimizing negative environmental impacts. Land-use policy formulation, planning and management should adopt a more holistic approach, taking into account the interests of all resource users, especially the poor, instead of focusing on any particular sector.     

Impacts of climate change on rice market and production capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin

The supply of water is affected by climate changes. In addition, high economic growth in the lower Mekong River countries including two large rice exporters is expected to reduce the per capita consumption of rice as incomes grow. Consequently, the need exist to investigate changes in supply and demand using econometric models of rice markets in the countries, where water supplies are expected to change. The objective of this research is to clarify impacts of water supply changes on rice producers and consumers using supply and demand models of rice considering changes in the water supply to aid in producing agricultural policies and plans. The following two simulations were conducted in this assessment: (a) baseline and (b) CC_B2. The simulation of the baseline includes the assumption that the evapotranspiration (ET) of each province after 2000 is the average quantity of ET from 1995 to 1999. The simulation of the CC_B2 includes the assumptions that ET of each province after 2010 accords with the IPCC socioeconomic scenario B2. The simulation results suggest that climate change will depress wet season rice production in Cambodia and Mekong River Delta (MRD) region in Vietnam, and that of dry season rice in the MRD region in Vietnam and northeastern region (Isan) Thailand. The simulation results also indicate that climate change will increase farm prices of rice in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The results suggest that climate changes will weigh on the livelihood of rice consumers, especially those of poor rural populations.

     

Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.

     

Impacts of climate change on rice market and production capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin

The supply of water is affected by climate changes. In addition, high economic growth in the lower Mekong River countries including two large rice exporters is expected to reduce the per capita consumption of rice as incomes grow. Consequently, the need exist to investigate changes in supply and demand using econometric models of rice markets in the countries, where water supplies are expected to change. The objective of this research is to clarify impacts of water supply changes on rice producers and consumers using supply and demand models of rice considering changes in the water supply to aid in producing agricultural policies and plans. The following two simulations were conducted in this assessment: (a) baseline and (b) CC_B2. The simulation of the baseline includes the assumption that the evapotranspiration (ET) of each province after 2000 is the average quantity of ET from 1995 to 1999. The simulation of the CC_B2 includes the assumptions that ET of each province after 2010 accords with the IPCC socioeconomic scenario B2. The simulation results suggest that climate change will depress wet season rice production in Cambodia and Mekong River Delta (MRD) region in Vietnam, and that of dry season rice in the MRD region in Vietnam and northeastern region (Isan) Thailand. The simulation results also indicate that climate change will increase farm prices of rice in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The results suggest that climate changes will weigh on the livelihood of rice consumers, especially those of poor rural populations.     

Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.     

Assessment of changes in water cycles on food production and alternative policy scenarios

This special issue deals with water and food as it applies to water resources and rice production in the Mekong River Basin. The range of papers reflects not only the broad interest but also the complexity of the topic. These reports are mainly based on the research carried out by the project, “Assessment of the Impact of Global-Scale Change in Water Cycles on Food Production and Alternative Policy Scenarios”. Hence the special issue gives a brief overview of the structure, goals, outcomes, and future direction of the above project. What we do in this paper are: (1) giving an overview of the project’s structure and goals, (2) stating the five common outcomes and several more specific results, and (3) looking forward to the future direction of the project. The aim of our research is to draw up scenarios for optimum water-resource distribution and to develop social guidelines, measures, and policies to help solving food and environmental problems by developing a world water–food model that emphasizes rice production in Monsoon Asia. We have integrated all of the data gathered and the research results into a food supply and demand model combined with a water-cycle analysis. We included operational factors, such as water-cycle change, water demand, water supply, and water distribution in the model. Emphasis is placed on the use of efficient resource-management technologies for proper use of water resources in agricultural and other sectors. The water–food model has been developed as a tool for evaluating technical decisions derived under various policy scenarios.     

Determination of the potential land for securing double-rice cropping in the Cambodian Mekong Delta,based on a sub-area based modeling of flood inundation

Inundated areas of the Mekong Delta are the most important regions for agricultural production in both Cambodia and Vietnam. With population growth and increasing water demand in the dry season, effectively managing available water in the region is vital for crop production. This study is aimed at developing a sub-area based modeling of flood inundation model in order to analyze flood inundation processes in the Cambodian Mekong Delta as a basis for introducing semi-flood control for new cropping systems such as double-rice cropping. The simulated results of the flood inundation model from 2002 to 2003 were utilized for estimating land appearance in the dividing sub-area, and the potential of securing land for double-rice cropping was determined based on the period of land appearance and the cropping schedule. In order to realize the available water for double cropping, consideration of the effect of operating canal gates for controlling the early and receding inundation are crucially necessary. By considering the operation of control gates facilities, the potential land for securing double-rice cropping exceeded about 50 km² compared to the 34 km² of the actual land used for recession rice (about 30 and 20% of the total selected area, respectively). The study confirms that the sub-area based modeling of inundation model can be a helpful tool for water management in the Cambodia Mekong Delta.     

模拟高温季节稻丛基部小气候条件下白背飞虱的生长发育与繁殖

白背飞虱[Sogatella furcifera (Horváth)]是我国最重要的水稻害虫之一。每年6—8月高温是制约该虫在长江流域发生的重要生态因子。白背飞虱多栖息于稻丛基部,其小气候特征常不同于大气。采用变温变湿、恒温恒湿两种方式,通过分别模拟高温期间(日最高温35℃~39℃)水稻拔节后稻丛基部和大气温湿度条件,研究了高温季节稻丛基部与大气温湿度条件对白背飞虱的生长、发育和繁殖的影响。结果表明,稻丛基部温湿度条件下,白背飞虱的生长、发育和繁殖在变温变湿模拟与恒温恒湿模拟间无显著差异,白背飞虱能正常地完成生长发育和繁殖。与之相比,模拟大气条件下,白背飞虱生长、发育和繁殖相关的多数指标均受到显著抑制,其中较为重要的单雌产卵量,大气变温变湿模拟较稻丛基部变温变湿模拟减少了62.1%。可以认为,夏秋高温期间水稻拔节后稻丛基部田间小气候有利于白背飞虱“躲避”高温天气的不利影响。     

Traditional ‘maavee’ rice production in Sri Lanka: environmental,economic and social pressures revealed through stakeholder interviews

The Nilwala Ganga Basin of Sri Lanka includes important natural wetlands that are habitat for vulnerable animal and plant species. Flood protection and intensive rice production in the Basin have resulted in degraded acid soils and declining rice yields. However, traditional ‘maavee’ rice production outside the flood protection scheme has continued to generate a high-value rice product. This study reports on interviews conducted with farmers and other stakeholders to document the production practices and the potential environmental and economic benefits associated with maavee rice paddies. The maavee production system has prevailed for at least several decades. Farmers apply no chemicals to their paddies, relying instead on alluvial deposits as a source of nutrients, and on the natural pest and disease resistance of their traditional varieties. The maavee rice product can attain three times the selling price of rice from conventional farms making it more economically viable than conventional rice production. However, much of maavee production is for home consumption and the system is threatened by increasing labour costs, an ageing farming population and pressures to increase rice yields. Non-invasive production practices and the proximity of maavee paddies to regenerating wetlands in the Kirala Kele Sanctuary suggest that traditional paddies may constitute an important habitat for vulnerable wildlife; however, maavee farmers also perceive wetland birds as potentially damaging to rice. Based on a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis, we make recommendations for future research needs and potential management actions to safeguard the environmental and economic sustainability of the maavee system.     

A modeling approach for assessing rice cropping cycle affected by flooding,salinity intrusion,and monsoon rains in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

We developed a crop scheduling model for rice cultivation in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD), focusing on the adaptive behavior of crop planning to various water resource constraints. In addition, we also examined the effects of environmental change on rice cultivation in the last decade. In the VMD, multiple rice cropping is practiced under a variety of adverse water conditions, including flooding, salinity intrusion, and irregular monsoon rains. These environmental changes influence the durations of growing seasons and the number of crops per year, resulting in changes in productivity. To validate the performance of the model, we compared model estimates for the heading date and changes in leaf area index at nine sites with estimates of these parameters derived from MODIS satellite time series data for the period 2002–2006. The root mean square errors of heading date between the modeled and satellite data in the upper, middle, and coastal regions of the delta were 17.6, 11.2, and 13.0 days, respectively. Based on the model, we examined case studies to assess the changes in cropping cycles and crop failures in the VMD due to extreme flooding in 2000 and salinity intrusion in 2004 by applying evaluation indices defined by available period for cultivation (APC) and safe margin for cropping (SMC) which is defined as the marginal time between APC and the period required for cultivation. Findings of case studies suggested that a small difference in the SMC of the cropping pattern is critical to the stability and productive capacity of the rice crop.     

Flood vulnerability assessment in the light of rice cultivation characteristics in Mekong River flood plain in Cambodia

More than 2 million hectares of the lower Mekong River flood plain (Cambodian Plain), which extends from southern Cambodia to the border with Vietnam, is cultivated with rice; and more than 60 % of the population in the flood plain are farmers involved in rice cultivation. Rice production in this area is seriously affected by floods almost every year; on the other hand, the farmers need floodwater for their crop fields. Therefore, the farming in this area is about coping with floods, and flood countermeasures should be carefully planned based on good understanding of the livelihood of the farmers. Thus, this study aimed to identify flood-vulnerable rice-growing communities in the Mekong River flood plain in Cambodia. In this research, we proposed a useful methodology to make flood inundation maps by conducting a simple analysis by combining satellite-based digital elevation model (DEM) and river water level data based on the flood characteristics in this area. Then, rice-crop vulnerability maps were derived from previous maps and results from other past researches using the geographical information system (GIS). Comparison among those maps was also conducted to find out the relationship between DEM and people’s lifestyles in this area. This simple, inexpensive methodology was proven useful to understand major crop damage and vulnerability in relation to floods in this area, based on flood characteristics in the Cambodian flood plain. Because the method is a GIS-based approach, it can deliver more accurate results when provided with more accurate data.

     

A model driven by crop water use and nitrogen supply for simulating changes in the regional yield of rain-fed lowland rice in Northeast Thailand

Climate change will have significant impacts on the rain-fed rice production ecosystem, and particularly on the ecosystem’s hydrology and water resources. Under rain-fed lowland conditions, substantial variations among fields in grain yield are commonly observed, but a method that can account for field-scale yield variability to produce regional-scale yield estimates is lacking, thereby limiting our ability to predict future rice production under changing climate and variable water resources. In this study, we developed a model for estimating regional yields of rain-fed lowland rice in Northeast Thailand, by combining a simple crop model with a crop calendar model. The crop model incorporates the effects of two important resources (water and nitrogen) on crop growth. The biomass accumulation is driven by water use, whereas the nitrogen supply determines canopy development and thereby constrains crop water use. Accounting for the wide range of planting dates and the strong photoperiod-sensitive characteristics of rice varieties through the calendar model is an essential component in determining regional yield estimates. The present model does not account for the effects of mid-season drought or flooding, but was nonetheless able to explain the spatial and temporal yield variations at the province level for the past 25 years. Thus, it can be used as a prototype for simulating regional yields of rain-fed lowland rice.     

An index for evaluating the flood-prevention function of paddies

Urbanization is expanding in and around small to medium-sized cities as well as in large cities, and the expansion includes low-lying areas where the flood risk is high. Flood risk in small watersheds has been evaluated using precise mathematical models. However, these models cannot be applied to larger basins due to the complexity of data collection and analysis. As a result, quantitative evaluations of flood risk at macro scales and the flood-prevention function of paddies around urban areas have not been made. This paper proposes a method and an index that can be used to evaluate the flood-prevention function of paddies on a regional scale. In addition, the use of this system for basin-wide management is illustrated by an example for the Kinu and Kokai rivers, which are tributaries of the Tone River of Japan. The applicability of the approach is evaluated using data from a major flood that occurred in the study area.     

Seasonal characteristics of surface water quality in the wastewater catchment system of an urbanizing basin

Vientiane, Lao PDR, has been subject to extensive and ongoing urbanization plans, including development of natural marshes and residentialization of paddy fields into suburban areas, despite natural marshes playing a vital role in treating wastewater from urban areas. Therefore, it is important to understand the current situation regarding the nutrient balance in these natural wastewater treatment systems to predict future conditions and design appropriate measures against water quality deterioration. However, limited data are available in Vientiane on the hydrological characteristics of water and nutrient runoff that flow into marshes through drainage canals. In this study, we conducted a periodic survey of drainage canals and Mak Hiao River in the wastewater catchment system surrounding Vientiane during the rainy and dry seasons. We monitored the discharge of surface water at 21 observation sites and analyzed water quality of nitrogen, phosphorus, and total organic carbon. These observations revealed that the concentrations of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus were significantly higher at sites in urban areas, followed by sites in the main river basin and those in agricultural areas. Dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations varied with runoff discharge, especially in urban and river basin sites, with lower concentrations in the rainy season and higher concentrations in the dry season. On the other hand, we found no significant differences between the rainy and dry seasons in nutrient concentrations in the agricultural basin. Finally, we proposed measures to counteract the deterioration of water quality during dry seasons and simulated the impact of these measures.     

稻—小龙虾—泥鳅绿色高效种养技术要点

稻虾鳅绿色高效种养模式能够提高稻田综合生产能力,实现农业增效及农民增收,是水稻种植和水产养殖结合后农业生态系统重建的典范模式.从田间工程改造、清沟消毒、施用基肥、投放有益生物、水稻品种选择、水稻栽培管理、放养苗种、饵料投喂、日常田间管理、水稻和水产品收获等方面介绍了稻虾鳅种养模式的关键技术.     

宁夏水稻

从宁夏水稻的生产历史、地理生态条件、生产及科研现状、发展中存在问题、发展之展望五个方面比较全面地介绍了宁夏水稻。明确指出了宁夏水稻的发展是伴随着宁夏引黄灌区的开发而发展,宁夏水稻高产而上乘的品质是与宁夏独特的生态条件相关联。阐述了宁夏水稻品种、栽培技术演变及其成效。从宁夏种稻所具有的良好经济功能和生态功能强调了宁夏引黄灌区种稻的重要性,分析宁夏水稻生产发展中的问题,展望了宁夏未来水稻面积、区域优化布局、品种、栽培技术多样化发展趋势。     

中国居民中高端大米需求弹性估算与市场潜力研究——以长三角市场为例

【目的】主粮结构升级需求压力随着居民收入水平的提高和消费观念的变化不断增大,长三角地区作为我国经济最发达地区和重要的粮食主销区,研判其主粮消费结构变化有助于判断未来全国大米需求结构的变化趋势。【方法】以主粮大米为例,利用大型连锁超市销售数据,采用计量经济模型对不同档次大米需求弹性进行了估计,并预测了长三角地区未来近20年中高端大米的市场消费潜力。【结果】长三角地区大米消费市场已趋稳定,消费结构逐渐由普通大米向中高端大米转变,预计到2040年,长三角地区中高端大米市场需求将达到1231×10⁴～2463×10⁴t,市场价值将达到1085亿～2302亿元。【结论】应针对稻米中高端需求的倾向,做好顶层设计,在已有市场及未来市场发展空间的基础上,科学确定区域布局、发展方向和产业规模,推进优化产品结构、品种结构、经营结构,不断提升优质绿色稻米的比重,加大对高端稻米产业发展的保护。