| 考虑水系演变的湘江流域洪水风险四维评价体系构建 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨柳, 王晨颖, 冯畅, 李慧仪, 彭璐璐, 宣润泽. 考虑水系演变的湘江流域洪水风险四维评价体系构建[J]. 农业工程学报, 2023, 39(3): 92-101. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202211025 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨柳 王晨颖 冯畅 李慧仪 彭璐璐 宣润泽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.衡阳师范学院地理与旅游学院，衡阳 421002;2.湖南省环境教育与可持续发展研究基地，衡阳 421002;3.古村古镇文化遗产数字化传承协同创新中心，衡阳 421002;4.福建师范大学地理科学学院，福州 350007 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41901026，42001024）；湖南省自然科学基金项目（2022JJ40015，2021JJ40011）；湖南省教育厅科学研究项目青年项目（21B0625，21B0646）；教育部大学生创新创业训练计划项目（S202010546025）；湖南省研究生科研创新项目（CX20221271） |
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| 摘 要： | 为刻画水系演变对洪水风险的影响，该研究区别于传统洪水风险评价方式，着重考虑水系演变的综合定量化研究，以湘江流域为例，构建基于水系演变的洪水风险评价体系，运用有别于主观赋值、具有一定客观性的熵权法，从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防洪减灾能力4个维度开展1995－2015年洪水风险评价体系验证研究。研究结果表明：1）1995－2015年，研究区水系大体呈衰减趋势且各市域之间水系变化差异大，其中河网密度和支流发育系数衰减率最高，分别达30.96%、34.01%，河道趋于主干化，单一化；2）基于水系演变的洪水风险评价表明，期内，区内洪水风险程度逐渐提高，高风险地区发生在上游的永州市南部、郴州市西部、中游的衡阳市以及下游长沙市辖区；3）定量化水系演变的流域洪水风险四维评价体系合理可行，且能更科学和细腻地反映城镇化背景下水系演变对洪水风险的影响，为流域农业生产和区域防洪减灾提供科学支撑。
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| 关 键 词： | 水系演变 洪水 风险评价 水资源 熵权法 湘江流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-11-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023-01-23 |
Four-dimensional assessment system for flood risks with the river network system evolution in Xiangjiang River Basin in Hunan of China |
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| YANG Liu, WANG Chenying, FENG Chang, LI Huiyi, PENG Lulu, XUAN Runze. Four-dimensional assessment system for flood risks with the river network system evolution in Xiangjiang River Basin in Hunan of China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2023, 39(3): 92-101. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202211025 |
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| Authors: | YANG Liu WANG Chenying FENG Chang LI Huiyi PENG Lulu XUAN Runze |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Faculty of Geography and Tourism, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421002, China;2.Research Base of Environmental Education and Sustainable Development in Hunan Province, Hengyang 421002, China;3.Collaborative Innovation Center for Digital Inheritance of Cultural Heritage in Gucun Ancient Town, Hengyang 421002, China;4.Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 35007, China |
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| Abstract: | Conventional assessment cannot fully depict the impact of river system evolution on flood risk in recent years. In this study, a four-dimensional assessment system of flood risk was proposed considering the evolution of the river network system in Xiangjiang River Basin. A comprehensive and quantitative investigation was also made on the spatiotemporal evolution of the river network. The entropy-weight method was used to verify the assessment system of flood risk from 1995 to 2015 from four dimensions: the risk of disaster-causing factors, the sensitivity of disaster-bearing environment, the vulnerability of disaster bearing body, as well as the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation. The certain objectivity was achieved in the difference from the previous subjective assignment. A flood risk was then expressed by the maximum precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall greater than or equal to 50 mm, the maximum continuous precipitation, and the longest continuous precipitation days over 10 years. The sensitivity of the disaster environment was represented by a composite index of the absolute elevation, relative elevation, vegetation cover, and water system evolution. The vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies was indicated by the population per unit area, GDP per unit area, and the percentage of arable and construction land. The disaster prevention and hazard reduction capability were explained by the number of beds, the ratio of medical service personnel, the capacity of reservoirs per unit area, and the financial income per capita. The results show that: 1) The river network system presented high spatial heterogeneity in the rapid descending trend over the past 20 years. The river tended to be shrunk and simplified. The drainage density and the tributary development coefficient indicated the highest attenuation rate up to 30.96 % and 34.01 %, respectively. 2) The high-risk region was located in the eastern and southern areas. The sensitivity of the disaster environment showed a pattern of high in the north, but low in the southeastern and southwestern. The vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies was mainly distributed in economically developed areas. The areas with high disaster prevention and mitigation capacity were mainly located in the municipal districts with high economic levels. Among them, Zixing City shared stronger water retention and water connotation capacity. The local flood risk gradually increased to expand the range of high-risk flood hazards in the basin over the past 20 years. High-risk areas mainly included the southern Yongzhou City, the northwestern Chenzhou City of the upstream, the southeastern of Hengyang City, and the municipal districts of Changsha City. 3) Rapid urbanization led to the decline of the river network system and storage capacity but also resulted in the increase of extreme precipitation and flood frequency over the past 20 years. Therefore, a four-dimensional assessment system was established for the flood risk considering the evolution of the quantitative water system, indicating the impact of water system evolution on the flood risk under the background of urbanization in a more scientific and delicate way. The finding can also provide scientific support for agricultural production in the basin, particularly for regional flood control and disaster reduction. |
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| Keywords: | water resources flood risk assessment evolution of river network systems entropy weight method Xiangjiang River basin |
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