| 天水市近63年极端温度变化特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚延锋,朱恩超,安晶,李悦,汪鸿滨. 天水市近63年极端温度变化特征分析[J]. 农学学报, 2015, 5(1): 130-133. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.2014-xb0407 |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚延锋 朱恩超 安晶 李悦 汪鸿滨 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃省天水市气象局,,天水市气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央财政资金中国气象局预报司业务专项“西北区强对流预报预警业务平台建设”(QDLYJ2013-001) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了研究气候变暖对天水极端温度的影响，利用天水观测站1951年至2013年逐年的极端温度资料，运用气候倾向率、趋势系数、百分位法、滑动T检验等统计方法，分析极端温度对气候变暖的响应特征。结果表明：天水年极端最高（低）温度均呈显著性升高趋势，极端最高气温上升0.2℃/10a,极端最低气温上升0.3℃/10a，都通过了α=0.01的显著性检验；通过百分位法定义了极端温度的阈值，分析发现：极端最高气温与阈值的差值随时间序列的增加逐步增大，极端最低气温与阈值的差值随时间序列的增加逐步减少，对极端最高温度和极端最低温度利用滑动T检验法进行突变检验，在α=0.01显著性水平下，极端最低温度没有发生突变，而极端最高温度在1983年和1993年发生了两次十分明显的突变。
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| 关 键 词： | 生长素 生长素 Aux/IAA基因家族 信号转导 基因功能 调控机制 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-04-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-04-18 |
Extreme Temperature Variability in Tianshui over the past 63 years |
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| Yao Yanfeng;Zhu Enchao;An Jing;Li Yue;Wang Hongbin. Extreme Temperature Variability in Tianshui over the past 63 years[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2015, 5(1): 130-133. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.2014-xb0407 |
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| Authors: | Yao Yanfeng Zhu Enchao An Jing Li Yue Wang Hongbin |
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| Affiliation: | Yao Yanfeng;Zhu Enchao;An Jing;Li Yue;Wang Hongbin;Tianshui Meteorological Bureau; |
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| Abstract: | Evaluation of extreme temperature changes in Tianshui under global warming is studied based on annual extreme temperature data from 1951 to 2013. To better understand the variability and long-term trend of extreme temperature, various mathematical statistics methods, including the climate tendency rate, climate tendency coefficient, percentile threshold value method and slidingT -test method, have been used. Results indicate that annual extreme temperature showed a significant increase trend over the past 63 years. The extreme high-temperature rate of increase is estimated as 0.2℃/10 a, while the extreme low-temperature increased by 0.3℃/10 a, which are all statistically significant at 99% confidence level. The threshold values of temperature extremes have been determined using the percentile threshold value method, we find that the difference between the extreme high-temperature (extreme low-temperature) and the corresponding threshold value increased (decreased) with the length of time series. The temporal characteristics of extreme hightemperature and extreme low-temperature trends are analyzed by using sliding T-test method. There is no significant abrupt change in extreme low-temperature at 99% confidence level. In contrast, the extreme hightemperaturechanges abruptly in 1983 and 1993. |
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| Keywords: | Extreme temperature Threshold Percentile threshold value method Sliding t-test method |
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