| 1971-2015年烟台冬小麦不同生育期温度变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘书畅,董心怡,潘仕梅,宋俊芬,王学芬,衣淑玉. 1971-2015年烟台冬小麦不同生育期温度变化[J]. 农学学报, 2019, 9(7): 68-73. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas19040024 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘书畅 董心怡 潘仕梅 宋俊芬 王学芬 衣淑玉 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业大学烟台研究院 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国农业大学烟台研究院项目基金“气候变化对山东省沿海典型城市旅游业发展的影响及对策研究”(YT201708);中国农业大学烟台研究 院URP项目“烟台地区极端气候分析”(U20183016) 。 |
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| 摘 要： | 旨在分析不同生育期温度变化对冬小麦的影响,基于1971—2015年烟台平均气温资料,利用线性倾向率和M-K检验,分析气温的年际变化趋势、年代变化率和突变点。结果表明：烟台冬小麦全生育期、营养生长期、营养生长和生殖生长并生期（并生期）和生殖生长期温度均明显增加,线性倾向率依次为0.15℃/10 a(P<0.01)、0.12℃/10 a(P<0.05)、0.21℃/10 a(P<0.01)和0.28℃/10 a(P<0.01);营养生长期、并生期和生殖生长期、全生育期平均温度的变异系数依次为17.27%、11.80%、3.94%、8.05%;营养生长期、并生期、生殖生长期、全生育期的突变年份分别出现在1987年、1991年、1981年、1982年。温度升高会导致冬小麦难以通过春化,花芽分化期缩短,生殖生长期遭遇初夏干热风等灾害性天气影响,最终造成小麦减产。在全球变暖背景下,应顺应气候变化,合理搭配冬小麦品种和采取相应管理措施,以促进烟台农业高产高质地可持续发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 云南红萝卜 云南红萝卜 农艺性状 偏相关分析 通径分析 主成分分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-04-15 |
Yantai Winter Wheat: Temperature Change in Different Growth Stages During 1971-2015 |
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| Abstract: | To analyze the effects of temperature change in different growth stages on winter wheat. Based on the average temperature data of Yantai from 1971 to 2015, we studied the inter-annual changes, the decadal change rates and mutations by using the linear trend rate and Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that: the average temperature in the whole growth period, the vegetative period, the vegetative and reproductive growth period, the reproductive growth period increased at the rate of 0.15℃/10 a (P<0.01), 0.12℃/10 a (P<0.05), 0.21℃/10 a (P<0.01) and 0.28℃/10 a (P<0.01), respectively; the coefficient of variation and the mutations in the vegetative period, the vegetative and reproductive growth period, the reproductive growth period and the whole growth period was 17.27%, 11.80%, 3.94%, 8.05%, respectively, appeared in 1987, 1991, 1981 and 1982, respectively. The increase of temperature eventually makes it difficult to complete the vernalization phase and shortens the bud differentiation period, besides, the reproductive growth period may experience extreme weather such as hot-arid wind in early summer, which may cause a drop in wheat yield. Under the background of global warming, we should conform to climate change, reasonably match winter wheat varieties and take corresponding management measures to promote the sustainable development of high yield and high quality of agriculture in Yantai. |
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