|
|||||
|
|
| 未来情景下东北地区极端气候事件的模拟分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 高霁 杨红龙 陶生才 林而达. 未来情景下东北地区极端气候事件的模拟分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2012, 28(14): 295-300. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-0408 |
| 作者姓名： | 高霁 杨红龙 陶生才 林而达 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 首都师范大学,北京100048;中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081;山西农业大学,山西太谷030801 2. 深圳市国家气候观象台/深圳市气象局,深圳,518040 3. 首都师范大学,北京100048;2中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 |
| 基金项目： | 中英合作项目“中国农业对气候变化脆弱性及适应能力建设”（H5105001）; 国家重点基础研究发展计划“农林业固碳减排关键技术研究与示范”（2012CB955904） |
| 摘 要： | 为了预测评估全球变暖背景下东北地区所面临的极端气候事件的可能变化趋势，并为粮食生产应对极端气候事件提供参考依据，利用Hadley气候预测与研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS进行中国东北区域气候基准时段（1961-1990年）和SRES A2情景下2071-2100年极端事件变化响应的分析。气候基准时段的模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明：PRECIS具有对中国东北地区极端事件的模拟能力，能够模拟出极端事件的空间分布以及随地形变化的细节特征。对SRES A2情景下相对于气候基准时段的极端气候事件的变化响应分析表明：东北地区极端事件发生频率呈明显变化，极端低温事件减少，高温事件增加。夏季日数增加明显，增幅范围为50%~400%。极端温较差也呈增加趋势，大部分地区增幅为0~5%。生长季长度呈地理特征的变化，东部和西部地区增幅较大。冰冻日数和最大连续霜冻日数都呈减少趋势。 |
| 关 键 词： | 相关性 相关性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-02-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012-03-23 |
Simulation Analysis of Extreme Events of Climate Change in the Northeast China in the Future |
|
| Gao Ji , Yang Honglong , Tao Shengcai , Lin Erda. Simulation Analysis of Extreme Events of Climate Change in the Northeast China in the Future[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2012, 28(14): 295-300. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-0408 | |
| Authors: | Gao Ji Yang Honglong Tao Shengcai Lin Erda |
| Affiliation: | 1Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048;2Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081;3Shanxi Agricultural University,Taigu Shanxi 030801;4Shenzhen National Climate Observatory/ Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau,Shenzhen 518040) |
| Abstract: | In order to predict and evaluate the extreme events of climate change in northeast China under the background of global warming,and provide reference for food production to address the extreme events of climate change.The regional climate model system PRECIS developed by Hadley centre for climate prediction and the research had been used to study the extreme events of climate change response under the baseline and SRES A2 scenario in the northeast China.PRECIS had the ability to simulate the extreme events of climate change in northeast China and their spatial distributions of and details varies with terrain through simulations and compared with observations under the baseline.As the analysis and calculation results under SRES A2 scenario relative to baseline（1961-1990） showed that： a clear change of frequency of climate change extreme events would occur in northeast China.Extremes of cold decrease,extremes of heat increase,and summer days raised obviously with an increase of 50%-400%.Extreme temperature range increased with an increase of 0%-5%;Length of growth period varied with geographical features,there was a greater increase in the east and west in the northeast China,but both frost days and consecutive frost days tended to decrease. |
| Keywords: | SRES A2 scenario extreme events of climate change baseline |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《中国农学通报》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《中国农学通报》下载全文 | |