| 2012年7月9日临朐地区暴雨成因及漏报原因分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 杨萌 宋欣 王文波 杨可栋 王焕毅 王鹏. 2012年7月9日临朐地区暴雨成因及漏报原因分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2013, 29(17): 202-207. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-3070 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 杨萌 宋欣 王文波 杨可栋 王焕毅 王鹏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 潍坊市气象局,山东潍坊,261011
2. 本溪市气象局,辽宁本溪,117000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 山东省气象局预报员专项项目“潍坊市局地大暴雨分析与疑难个例落区研究”(sdyby2012-07)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了更好地研究潍坊市暴雨落区，减少暴雨灾害发生，为以后的暴雨预报工作总结经验，提高预报准确率，特对此次暴雨过程进行诊断分析。利用气象信息综合分析处理系统MICAPS 3.1，对常规气象资料进行剖面分析、探空分析，最后对数值预报产品进行检验，得出暴雨的产生和漏报原因。结果表明，此次暴雨产生的重要原因是中纬度短波槽带来的干冷空气与低空急流带来西南暖湿气流的叠加，同时临朐县南部沂山造成的地形影响和弥河的水汽蒸发也是其中重要原因。漏报的主要原因是由于过分依赖数值产品的降水预报和忽略中小尺度系统的演变以及对物理量场分析不深入。通过此次总结分析得出结论，要做好暴雨的预报必须综合考虑天气实况，重点分析各物理量，同时加强预报员对数值预报产品的订正工作。
|
| 关 键 词： | 统计方法 统计方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-09-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012-09-26 |
Analysis on the Genesis and the Omission of Torrential Rain over Linqu on 9 July 2012 |
| |
| Yang Meng , Song Xin , Wang Wenbo , Yang Kedong , Wang Huanyi , Wang Peng. Analysis on the Genesis and the Omission of Torrential Rain over Linqu on 9 July 2012[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2013, 29(17): 202-207. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-3070 |
| |
| Authors: | Yang Meng Song Xin Wang Wenbo Yang Kedong Wang Huanyi Wang Peng |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future, the author made especially a diagnosis about the process of the torrential rain. The author took the method and had an analysis of profile and sounding to the conventional meteorological data by using a meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system 3.1 and had finally an inspection of numerical weather prediction, which got the reason of production and omission of torrential rain. The results showed that: the important reason of the torrential rain with the southern Yishan and indemnity river was commonly effected by cold air brought by the middle latitude shortwave trough and the southwest warm wet airflow brought by the jet stream. It was the main reason of the omission of torrential rain that the author relied excessively on the rainfall forecast of numerical products and neglected the evolution of small scale process as well as analysis of the physical quantity field. Above all, the author could draw the conclusion that it was very important to monitor the actual weather situation and analyze all kinds of physical quantities for forecasting torrential rain. Besides, people should improve forecaster to revise the work of the numerical weather prediction. |
| |
| Keywords: | torrential rain mesoscale upper-level trough subtropical high |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《中国农学通报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《中国农学通报》下载全文 |
