| 张家界市洪涝灾害农业风险评估研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 辛学飞. 张家界市洪涝灾害农业风险评估研究[J]. 农学学报, 2015, 5(9): 125-129. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas14120022 |
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| 作者姓名： | 辛学飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南省张家界市气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南省气象局2013年“短、平、快”课题基金支撑。 |
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| 摘 要： | 洪涝灾害是发生频率较高、危害较重的一种自然灾害。因此，对洪涝灾害进行风险评估，能够有效减轻灾害损失，提高社会经济效益。本研究利用张家界地区桑植、永定、慈利3个站点1981～2010年的降水资料，以及张家界市主要农作物播种面积、洪涝受灾面积、成灾面积、以及减产粮食量等数据，建立洪涝风险评估模型；根据逐日降水量数据的伽玛（gamma）分布特征，对其进行拟合，再分析计算张家界地区主要农作物需水量的特征值，对主要农作物进行洪涝风险评估。结果表明：张家界地区发生洪涝风险的概率很高，相对而言，发生低级别洪涝风险的概率更高；农作物遭受洪涝风险的概率自西向东逐渐增加，需水量越大的农作物遭受洪涝风险的概率越低。
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| 关 键 词： | 微生物发酵床养猪垫料 微生物发酵床养猪垫料 育苗基质 种子发芽 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-12-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-02-11 |
Research on the evaluation of Zhangjiajie city of agricultural flood disaster riskXin Xuefei1 Huang Ping2 Huang Jun3 Tan Lei4 |
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| Abstract: | Flooding is a high frequency and heavy damage in a natural disaster. So for flood disaster risk assessment, can effectively reduce disaster losses, improve the social and economic benefits. This study used SangZhi, yongding, zhangjiajie area CiLi three sites precipitation data from 1981 to 2010, and the major crops planting area, flood affected area, zhangjiajie inundated area, food and production quantity, and other data, flood risk assessment model is established. According to the daily rainfall data of gamma gamma distribution characteristics, fitting, then analyzed and calculated in zhangjiajie is mainly the eigenvalues of the crop water requirement, for flood risk assessment of major crops. The results show that the high probability of zhangjiajie regional flood risk, relatively low level of flood risk probability is higher; Crop the probability of flooding risk increase gradually from west to east, the greater the water requirement of crops, the lower the probability of flooding risk. |
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| Keywords: | flood risk Gama (gamma) distribution crop water requirement |
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