| 安徽省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害等级指标的确定 |
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| 引用本文： | 李 德,景元书,祁 宦. 安徽省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害等级指标的确定[J]. 中国农学通报, 2015, 31(9): 56-62. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2084 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李 德 景元书 祁 宦 |
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| 作者单位： | (;1.安徽省宿州市气象局,安徽宿州 234000；;2.南京信息工程大学,南京210044；;3.江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京 210044） |
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| 基金项目： | 基金项目：江苏省农业气象重点实验室开放基金项目“淮北平原冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害风险评估技术研究”(JKLAM201210)；安徽省2012年地方标准制（修）订项目“安徽省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨等级”(皖质函[2012]142-127)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为确定冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害等级指标，利用1980—2012年安徽省冬小麦灌浆期间逐日气象观测数据、连阴雨灾害样本和灾情资料，遴选出连阴雨灾害过程的阴雨日数、累计雨量和日照时数3个主要致灾因子，采用主成分法(PCA)、有序样本最优分割法等数理统计方法，构建了冬小麦灌浆期间连阴雨灾害综合指数(D)，并结合危害特征和产量损失情况进行了灾情等级划分。结果表明，冬小麦灌浆期间的连阴雨灾害可由连阴雨综合指数(D)表达，并划分为轻、中、重、严重4个等级，对应的连阴雨综合指数(D)的分级阈值分别为：＜0.2、[0.2, 0.4)、[0.4,0.6)、≥0.6。经对典型连阴雨年的验证，研究中构建的连阴雨等级指标较单要素指标，对连阴雨灾害具有较高识别能力，可作为冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害监测与评估业务指标使用。
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| 关 键 词： | 富集系数 富集系数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-07-31 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-07-31 |
Index Determination of Continuous Rain Disaster During the Filling Stage of Winter Wheat in Anhui |
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| Li De,Jing Yuanshu and Qi Huan. Index Determination of Continuous Rain Disaster During the Filling Stage of Winter Wheat in Anhui[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2015, 31(9): 56-62. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2084 |
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| Authors: | Li De Jing Yuanshu Qi Huan |
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| Affiliation: | (;1.Meteorological Bureau of Suzhou in Anhui Province, Suzhou Anhui 234000;2.College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;3.Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science |
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| Abstract: | The paper aims to determine the grade index of continuous rain disaster during the filling stage of winter wheat. The study was conducted by using the daily meteorological observation data, continuous rain disaster samples and data during the filling stage of winter wheat in Anhui from 1980 to 2012. The authors selected 3 main disaster causing factors which were the number of rainy day, accumulative rainfall and sunshine hours of rain disaster process. Mathematical statistics method such as the principal component analysis method (PCA), ordered sample optimal segmentation method, etc. were adopted to construct continuous rain disaster comprehensive index (D), and the grade of disaster was determined with the characteristics of damage and yield loss. The results showed that continuous rain disaster during the filling stage of winter wheat could be expressed by the continuous rain disaster comprehensive index (D), and could be divided into 4 levels, which was light, medium, heavy and serious. The classification threshold of corresponding continuous rain comprehensive index (D) was: ＜ 0.2, [0.2, 0.4), [0.4, 0.6), ≥ 0.6. At the same time, the morphological characteristics of each grade of continuous rain disaster were given. Through the verification of typical continuous rainy years, the continuous rain index had higher recognition ability than the single factor index, which could be used as the monitoring and evaluation business index of continuous rain disaster during the filling stage of winter wheat. |
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| Keywords: | winter wheat filling stage continuous rain level indicators |
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