| 中国食用菌出口美国的影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张延斌. 中国食用菌出口美国的影响因素分析[J]. 南方农业学报, 2021, 52(1): 261-268. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1191.2021.01.032 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张延斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 郑州西亚斯学院,郑州 451150 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目（17BJY088） |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】通过对中国食用菌出口美国市场影响因素的分析，为中国食用菌出口美国市场提供建议，以应对中美贸易摩擦给中国食用菌出口美国市场带来的挑战。【方法】基于联合国粮农组织数据库、Uncomtrade数据库、国际清算银行官网、中国产业信息网中国食用菌出口美国的年度面板数据，运用扩展的引力模型对中国食用菌出口美国的影响因素进行实证分析，并将食用菌分为干食用菌和食用菌罐头产品分别测算不同类别食用菌贸易差异性，探究我国与美国食用菌贸易的发展措施。【结果】自加入WTO以来，中国食用菌产量逐年增加，由2010年的1837.00万t增至2018年的3842.04万t，其中2015年后增幅趋于稳定。中国食用菌目前以内需为主，出口潜力巨大，2011年之后由于美国设置的关税制度、反倾销政策及技术壁垒等贸易障碍减少了中国食用菌对美国的出口量，从2011年的79 t下降至2012年的3 t；2015—2016年，中国食用菌行业进行一系列质量管控措施，制定相应的农产品安全标准及物流运输建设，促进了食用菌出口，2016年出口美国总量达435 t；在2017年随着中美贸易摩擦的升级，出口美国总量回落至216 t。2010—2017年中国食用菌出口美国被FDA通报食用菌不洁物、农药残留超标、标签信息错误、厂商信息错误共830起。实证分结果表明，中国食用菌产量、美国国民收入对中国食用菌罐头和干食用菌出口美国具有显著正向影响；中国食用菌出口价格、美国实施食用菌贸易摩擦手段、中美两国之间距离对中国出口美国食用菌罐头和干食用菌贸易产生显著负向影响。但对干食用菌和食用菌罐头出口美国贸易的影响程度体现出明显差异，中国食用菌产量对干食用菌出口美国贸易比食用菌罐头出口美国贸易正向影响程度更大，影响系数分别为0.901和0.137。中美货币汇率对干食用菌罐头出口美国贸易呈显著正向影响，但对干食用菌出口美国贸易呈显著负向影响，影响系数分别为0.291和-0.341。【建议】优化食用菌产品结构，通过深加工提高食用菌产品附加值，增强我国食用菌出口竞争力；通过干湿搭配，轻重搭配，提高配载效率，在保证食用菌产品质量及交付时间的前提下，最大程度地降低物流成本；构建食用菌贸易摩擦预警机制，通过规模化种植、精细化管理提高食用菌产品质量，完善食用菌质量标准体系。
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| 关 键 词： | 贸易摩擦 食用菌出口 美国食用菌市场 引力模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-05-05 |
Influencing factors of China'sedible fungus export to the United States |
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| ZHANG Yan-bin. Influencing factors of China'sedible fungus export to the United States[J]. Journal of Southern Agriculture, 2021, 52(1): 261-268. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1191.2021.01.032 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yan-bin |
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| Affiliation: | Zhengzhou Sias University, Zhengzhou 451150, China |
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| Abstract: | 【Objective】Through the analysis of the influencing factors of China's edible fungi export to the United States market, provided the suggestions for China's edible fungi export to the United States, as to deal with the challenges brought by Sino-US trade friction.【Method】Based on the annual panel data of China's edible fungi exported to the United States from United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Database, Uncomtrade database, Bank for International Settlements website and China Industrial Information Network, empirically analyzed the influencing factors of China's edible fungi exported to the United States by using the improved extended gravity model, and divided edible fungi into dry edible fungi and edible fungi canin order to betterexplore the difference effect on the two types of product, and explore the development measures of edible fungus trade between China and the United States.【Result】Since joining the WTO, the production of edible fungi in China has increased year by year, from 18.37 million tons in 2010 to 38.4204 million tons in 2018, and became stable since 2015.China's edible fungi were mainly domestic demand, and the export potential was huge.After 2011, due to the tariff system, anti-dumping policy and technical barriers and other trade barriers from United States, China's edible fungi exports to the United States have been reduced.Reduction from 79 t in 2011 to 3 t in 2012.During 2015-2016, China's edible fungus industry carried out a series of quality control measures, formulated corresponding agricultural product safety standards and logistics transportation construction, promoted the export of edible fungi.Exports to the United States reached 435 t in 2016.In 2017, as Sino-US trade frictions escalated, exports to the United States fell to 216 t.From 2010 to 2017, China's edible fungus exports to the United States were informed of a total of 830 incidents such as edible fungus uncleanness, pesticide residues exceeding the standard, label information errors, manufacturers information errors.The empirical analysis showed that the yield of edible fungi in China and the national income of the United States had significant positive effect on the export of canned edible fungi and dried edible fungi in China.The export price of edible fungi in China, the trade friction of edible fungi in the United States and the distance between China and the United States had significant negative effect on the export of canned edible fungi and dried edible fungi to the United States.However, the influence on the export of dried edible fungi and canned edible fungi in the United States showed obvious differences.The production of edible fungi in China had a greater positive effect on the export of dried edible fungi to the United States than on the export of canned edible fungi to the United States.The influence coefficients were 0.901 and 0.137 respectively.The exchange rate of Chinese and American currency had significant positive effect on the export of dried edible fungi to the United States, but had significant negative effect on the export of dried edible fungi to the United States, with the influence coefficients of 0.291 and-0.341, respectively.【Suggestion】Following suggestions are proposed:optimize the structure of edible fungi products, improve the added value of edible fungi products through deep processing, and enhance the export competitiveness of edible fungi;improve the loading efficiency through dry and wet matching, light and heavy matching, minimize the logistics cost on the premise of ensuring the quality and delivery time of edible fungi products;establish an early warning mechanism of edible fungi trade friction, improve the quality of edible fungi products through large-scale planting and fine management, optimize the edible fungi quality standard system. |
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