| CMIP6气候变化情景下中国区域柑橘木虱潜在影响范围预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚俊萌,刘丹,段里成,蔡哲. CMIP6气候变化情景下中国区域柑橘木虱潜在影响范围预估[J]. 中国农业气象, 2021, 42(12): 1031. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2021.12.005 |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚俊萌 刘丹 段里成 蔡哲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1．江西省农业气象中心，南昌 330096；2．江西省气象科学研究所，南昌 330096 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西省气象局重点项目（JXQXZD201811） |
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| 摘 要： | 从柑橘木虱适宜分布的生理机制、气候特性出发，基于1970−2000年气候环境数据和柑橘木虱分布资料，利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）筛选得到影响柑橘木虱分布的七个关键气候环境因子，包括温度季节性变化标准差、最干月降水量、最冷季降水量、1月平均最高气温、9月平均最高气温、10月平均最高气温和8月平均最低气温。基于关键气候环境因子重构MaxEnt模型，结合CMIP6多模式气候变化情景数据，预估气候变化对柑橘木虱在中国的潜在分布影响。结果表明：CMIP6不同气候预测模式数据对预测柑橘木虱分布结果具有明显影响，其中CanESM5模式下柑橘木虱适生区面积整体最大，BCC-CSM2-MR模式下整体最小，表明单一模式具有较大的不确定性。多模式集合预测显示，2081−2100年柑橘木虱潜在适生区面积将较1970−2000年呈显著增加趋势，增幅从18.8%（SSP126情景）到55.7%（SSP585情景），与辐射强迫等级呈明显正相关；尤其是潜在高适生区增幅最大，从78.3%（SSP126情景）到177%（SSP585情景）。柑橘木虱适宜分布北界将不断北移，至2081−2100年，北界将到达32°N（SSP126情景下）−37°N（SSP585情景下），较目前实际发生北界（30°N）向北偏移2°～7°。研究结果表明气候变暖将对柑橘木虱在中国的扩散十分有利，严重威胁中国柑橘产区生态安全，各地特别是目前尚未发现柑橘木虱的地区需提高警惕，加强柑橘黄龙病检疫和防控。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 CMIP6 MaxEnt模型 柑橘黄龙病 物种分布 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-04-25 |
Prediction of Potential Distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama in China under Future Climate Change Scenarios of CMIP6 |
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| YAO Jun-meng,LIU Dan,DUAN Li-cheng,CAI Zhe. Prediction of Potential Distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama in China under Future Climate Change Scenarios of CMIP6[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2021, 42(12): 1031. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2021.12.005 |
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| Authors: | YAO Jun-meng LIU Dan DUAN Li-cheng CAI Zhe |
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| Abstract: | Based on the climate data in 1970−2000 and the distribution data of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama in China, the main climatic indices affecting the distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama were identfied by maximum entropy model (Maxent), including temperature seasonality standard deviation, precipitation of driest month(mm), precipitation of coldest quarter(mm), average maximum temperature in January(℃), average maximum temperature in September (℃), average maximum temperature in October(℃) and average minimum temperature in August (℃). The MaxEnt model was reconstructed by the 7 main climatic indices to estimate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama in China. The results showed that climate prediction mode selection of CMIP6 had significant impacts on prediction of the distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama. The overall prediction distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama was the highest in the CanESM5 mode, and the lowest in the BCC-CSM2-MR mode. It showed that the single mode had a greater uncertainty. Affected by climate change, multi-mode ensemble prediction showed that the potential suitable areas in the 2081−2100 for Diaphorina citri Kuwayama would increase significantly compared with in the 1970−2000, from 18.8% (SSP126 scenario) to 55.7% (SSP585 scenario). In the 2081−2100, the potential high suitable area would increase significantly from 78.3% (SSP126 scenario) to 177% (SSP585 scenario). The northern boundary of the suitable distribution shifted northward to about 32°N (SSP126 scenario) and 37°N (SSP585 scenario), while the actual northern boundary was at 30°N in the 1970−2000.This study indicated that climate change would be very beneficial to the spread of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama and threaten the ecological security of citrus-producing in China. The main citrus producing provinces, especially the areas where Diaphorina citri Kuwayama had not been found, need to be vigilant and strengthen the prevention of Citrus Huanglongbing. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change CMIP6 MaxEnt Citrus Huanglongbing Species distribution |
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