藏北羌塘牧民家庭人口特征和收入构成之间的关系

为探讨牧民家庭人口特征和收入构成之间的关系，通过半结构式访谈调查了藏北羌塘高寒草甸、高寒草原和荒漠草原区682户牧民，比较了其家庭规模、劳动力、抚养比、草场面积、放牧强度、家庭收入及其多样性的差异，结合多元线性回归评价了家庭人口特征对收入构成的影响。结果显示：羌塘地区牧民家庭规模大（5.3人·户^-1）、抚养比高（0.62）、劳动力充足（3人·户^-1）但受教育年限短（2.3年），高度依赖政策性收入；高寒草甸区牧民家庭规模、劳动力数量及受教育年限、抚养比和放牧强度等指标显著高于高寒草原和荒漠草原区（P<0.05），后两者之间无显著差异；荒漠草原区牧民家庭草场面积和政策性收入较高（P<0.05）；家庭规模、文盲率和抚养比是影响高寒草原和荒漠草原牧民收入构成的主要因子，人口特征对高寒草甸牧民收入影响不显著。综上所述，建议分区精准施策以提高牧民生计。

Effects of Population Regime on Income Composition at the Herder Household Scale across Changtang,North Tibet

To disentangle the effects of population regime on income composition of herder households across Changtang,Northern Tibet,682 adult herders from the alpine meadow,steppe,and desert-steppe zones were interviewed face to face via semi-structured questionnaires. Family size,amount and education level of labors,dependency ratio,grassland area,and grazing intensity at the household level were compared among different grassland zones. Multiple linear regressions were used to examine the relative contribution of population regime indices at the household level for each grassland zone. The results showed that the herder households across Changtang were large in family size (5.3 persons·household^-1),with a high dependency ratio (0.62),rich in adult labors (3 persons·household^-1) who generally received 2.3-year elementary,and largely depended on policy income. The herder households from alpine meadows were larger in family size and had more adult labors,with a higher dependency and grazing intensity than those from steppes and desert-steppes (P<0.05),without significant differences between steppes and desert-steppes. The herder households from steppes and desert-steppes had more policy income than those from meadows (P<0.05). The family size,illiteracy rate,and grazing intensity were essential drivers for herder income and its components at the household level,which explained more than 30% of the variance in income diversity of herder households from steppes and desert-steppes. However,population regimes at the household level were not good predictors of herder income from meadows,where they only explained 19% of the income variance. Therefore,the government should specify the relevant policies for different grassland zones to improve the livelihood sustainability of herder families in the future.