以“猪疫情”与“猪周期”叠加致肉价波动为契机建立新时代立体生态养殖产业链

该文从2019年中国生猪和猪肉产品价格大幅波动而带动CPI快速上调的“高通胀风险”及与工业生产PPI下降的“高通缩风险”关联性,探讨了推动猪肉价格快速上涨的机制。难控性“猪疫情”、规律性“猪周期”、投机性“猪炒作”及泛化性“外贸战”是促进肉产品价格快速上涨的“启动”、“叠加”、“内讧”及“外推”四大机制,并建议以此为机遇,充分利用新时代人们消费理念的绝对绿色健康性和恩施山区区域的相对独立分散性,克服浮躁性无序养殖心态,建立不受“猪周期”影响和少受“猪疫情”影响的“种-养-销”绿色立体生态产业链,使其与“猪炒作”脱代际,与“外贸战”失偶联,逐步形成新时代理性养殖和健康养殖与理性消费和健康消费的良性循环。

Taking Advantage of the Pork Price Fluctuations Caused by“Pig Epidemic”and“Pig Cycle”to Establish an Industry Chain of Three-Dimensional and Ecological Breeding

This article discussed the drastic fluctuation of swine and pork product prices in 2019,which has driven the“high inflation risk”that caused the rapid rise in CPI and the“high deflation risk”of decline in industrial production PPI,forming four overlapping mechanism driven the rapid rise in pork prices.The four mechanism included uncontrollable“pig epidemic”,regular“pig cycle”,speculative“pig hype”and generalized“foreign trade war”,which promoted the rapid rise in meat product prices.Finally,it is recommended to take it as an opportunity to make full use of people's consumption concept of green and healthy product in the new era and the relatively independent and scattered nature of the Enshi mountain area,to establish a green three-dimensional ecological industrial chain that it is not affected by the“pig cycle”and less affected by the“pig epidemic”by overcoming the impetuous and disordered breeding mentality,and make the chain decoupled from the“pig hype”and the“foreign trade war”,so as to gradually form a virtuous cycle of rational,healthy farming and consumption.