Temporal and spatial patterns of African swine fever in Sardinia |
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Authors: | A Mannelli S Sotgia C Patta A Oggiano A Carboni P Cossu A Laddomada |
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Institution: | a Dipartimento di Produzioni Animali, Epidemiologia, Ecologia, Via Nizza 52-10126 Torino Italy b Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sardegna, Via Duca degli Abruzzi, 8 07100 Sassari Italy |
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Abstract: | Temporal patterns and spatial distribution of African swine fever (ASF) were studied through the analysis of routinely collected data in the ASF-endemic area of the Province of Nuoro, Sardinia. During 1993–1996, ASF outbreaks were reported from 45 out of the 82 municipalities of the study area. Overall farm-level incidence rate (IR) was 1.3 outbreaks per 100 farms-year. ASF peaked in 1995 (IR=1.8) and declined in 1996 (IR=0.82). Significant (P<0.05) spring peaks of ASF outbreaks and affected municipalities were detected using statistical methods for circular distributions. Spatial clustering of ASF-affected municipalities, as evaluated by join-count statistics, was significant in 1993 (Zjc=?3.0, P<0.01) and 1994 (Zjc=?3.2, P<0.01) but not in 1995 (Zjc=?0.6, P=0.55) and 1996 (Zjc=?1.2, P=0.23). Extensive pig farming and ASF were spatially co-distributed (κ=0.51, 95% CI=0.33–0.70). |
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Keywords: | Pig-microbiological diseases African swine fever virus Spatial analysis Circular data analysis |
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