用关键年法分析家蚕原种微粒子病发病规律

根据广东省蚕种繁殖试验所 195 7～ 1997年原种微粒子病的发病率和相应年份的年均气温 ,利用统计假设检验法初步分析了原种微粒子病发生的关键年 (峰谷年 )的变化趋势及其与气温的关系。结果发现年平均气温对原种微粒子病发生有显著的影响 ;峰年前年的年平均气温明显高于历史平均水平 ;而低谷年前年的年平均气温明显低于历史平均水平。自 2 0世纪 80年代以来 ,微粒子病发病率偏高 ,平均气温亦显著偏高 ,可见气温是造成 10多年来原种微粒子病流行的原因之一。关键年法分析微粒子病发生的结果与生产实际基本吻合。

Analysis of the Prevalence of the Pebrine Disease of the Silkworm With the Methods of Key Years

In accordance with the observed data of the pebrine disease incidence from 1957 to 1997 and the mean annual temperature,the trend of the silkworm stock seed pebrine disease prevalence in the silkworm eggs production institute in Guangdong was analysed by using the methods of key years(peak and valley year).It is concluded that the temperature is one of the important factor which influenced the pebrine disease incidence.The mean annual temperature before the peak year is apparently higher and that before the valley year is comparatively lower.The results from the methods of key years about pebrine disease incidence is consistent with that of practice.