近53 a黑河流域水文气象要素时空演变特征

基于黑河流域及周边17个气象站点和2个水文站点近50 a的观测资料,采用Pettitt、Mann-Kendall(MK)、Yamamoto和累积距平曲线等多种方法,探讨黑河流域水文气象要素时空演变规律。结果表明:黑河流域各气象要素的空间分布随地势变化明显,平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、日照时数和平均风速由南至北呈逐渐增加趋势,降水和平均相对湿度则呈逐渐减少趋势;黑河流域降水、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和莺落峡径流量呈显著上升趋势,平均风速和日照时数呈显著下降趋势,正义峡径流量下降趋势并不显著,平均相对湿度则没有检测到明显的变化趋势;平均气温、最高气温和最低气温的突变点集中在20世纪90年代,降水和莺落峡径流量交互验证,确定二者的突变点均为2004年。结合多种变点检测方法共同分析,可有效提高结果的可信度和确定性。

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Hydro-meteorological Variables in the Heihe River Basin in Recent 53 Years

Based on the observed data from 17 meteorological stations and 2 hydrometric stations in the Heihe River Basin and its peripheral areas in recent 50 years, a variety of methods, such as Mann-Kendall (M-K), Pettitt,Yamamoto and Accumulative departure curve, were used to explore the spatiotemporal variation of hydro-meteorological variables.Results showed that the spatial distribution of hydro-meteorological variables in the Heihe River Basin was sensitive to topography.The magnitude of mean air temperature, minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature, sunshine duration and mean wind speed increased, but precipitation and mean relative humidity decreased from south to north.Precipitation, mean air temperature, minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature and runoff volume at Yingluoxia Hydrometric Station in the Heihe River basin exhibited the significant increase trends, while the mean wind speed and sunshine duration showed the remarkable decrease trends.Runoff volume at Zhengyixia Hydrometric Station had a slight decrease trend, and there was no obvious trend in mean relative humidity.Abrupt changes of annual mean air temperature, annual maximum and minimum air temperature were detected in the 1990s.The abrupt changes of precipitation and runoff volume at Yingluoxia Hydrometric Station occurred in 2004 based on the cross-validation, implying that different detection methods should be used to increase the credibility and certainty of the change points.