青海省果洛州草地畜牧业雪灾的恢复力

雪灾是造成我国高寒地区畜牧经济损失的重要原因,灾害恢复力理论对增强畜牧业防灾减灾能力具有重要作用。为甄别草地畜牧业灾后恢复薄弱环节,更好地开展防灾减灾工作。本文以脆弱性与恢复力相互关系为理论基础,结合雪灾特点和草地畜牧业系统属性,构建灾害恢复力综合模型和指标体系,分析1990—2015年青海省果洛州草地畜牧业雪灾恢复力时空变化特征及影响因素。结果表明:(1)纵向上,1990—2015年果洛州草地畜牧业恢复力呈波动上升态势,根据变化速度可分为快速上升(1990—2003年)和缓慢上升两个阶段(2004—2015年),系统承灾能力显著增强,阈值范围扩大;(2)空间上,玛沁县恢复力最强,玛多县恢复力最弱,高值区呈现由西北向东南转移趋势,恢复力空间差异有所减小;(3)雪灾是影响草地畜牧业恢复力的核心要素,防灾建设能力对恢复力有重要影响,减灾行为对恢复力的调控作用不容忽视。

Resilience of Grassland Livestock Husbandry against Snow Disaster in Guoluo Prefecture,Qinghai Province

Snow disaster results generally in the adverse impact on the pastoral economy in alpine area.Resilience theory could be used to efficiently improve the capability against snow disaster and alleviate the loss of animal husbandry.In order to distinguish the weak parts of existed resilience system and strengthen the construction of disaster mitigation in Guoluo Prefecture,Qinghai Province,in this paper a disaster resilience assessing model and an index system were developed according to the features of snow disaster and grassland livestock husbandry as well as the internal relationship between vulnerability and resilience.The results are as follows:① Temporally,the resilience against snow disaster in Guoluo Prefecture was increased in a fluctuation way.The change rate was increased rapidly during the period of 1990-2003 but slowly during the period of 2004-2015.The disaster-bearing capacity of livestock husbandry was markedly improved;② Spatially,the resilient capability was the highest in Maqin County but the lowest in Maduo County.Meanwhile,the area with high value of resilience was shifted from the northwest to the southeast,and the spatial difference of resilience was reduced to some extent;③Among all the factors,snow disaster played a decisive role in the change of resilience.The construction of disaster prevention capability affected significantly the resilience and disaster mitigation.