过去1500年宝鸡地区农业旱涝灾害与全国冷暖对应分析

揭示人类对环境变化的响应 ,已经成为近年来全球变化研究新的热点。根据我国陕西省宝鸡地区农业旱涝灾害史料 ,统计出 7世纪到 2 0世纪末的 15 0 0年间发生的旱涝灾害的年数 ,应用频数分析法及灾情等级指数分析法 ,发现宝鸡地区历史农业旱涝灾害的频度和灾情 ,均具有明显的波动变化特征。与全国季风区年均气温的变化进行对比 ,可以看出农业旱灾频数对气温变化有很好的冷多和暖少的对应关系 ,并且农业旱涝灾情在气温突变时段较严重 ,在气温平稳持续时段较弱。进一步分析表明 ,宝鸡地区农业旱涝频率的变化存在千年周期。在千年周期的结束期 ,即转换期 ,农业旱涝频率变化同步。

Analysis on the Correspondence between the Agricultural Disasters Caused by Droughts and Water Loggings in Baoji and the Climate Change in East China during the Past 1,500 Years

The historical climate fluctuations affected strongly the traditional dry farming in China. It is considered that the agricultural disasters caused by droughts and water loggings are the results of environmental change. It has become as one of the hot domains in the study on global change since recent years to reveal the response of agriculture to environment. Based on the Chinese historical documents about the agricultural disasters caused by droughts and water loggings during the past 1,500 years, in this paper, the statistical data show that the occurring frequency and the situation of the traditional dry farming disasters caused by droughts and water loggings had the obvious fluctuations in Baoji during the period from the 7th to the 20th century. Comparing with the temperature change in the monsoon areas in east China, the frequent occurrence of drought disasters corresponded with the cold periods but the drought disasters occurred less during the hot periods. Moreover, the situation of the traditional dry farming disasters caused by droughts and water loggings was serious during the periods when the temperature changed suddenly but it was not so serious during the periods when the temperature change was not so violent. The analyzed result shows that there were the millenium circles in the change of the traditional dry farming disasters caused by droughts and water loggings in Baoji. It is considered that the change of the farming disasters caused by droughts and water loggings was the response to climate change.