哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力评价及其影响因素识别

水土资源的数量与质量对农业可持续发展具有重要意义。选取22个指标建立了哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力评价体系，将层次分析法、熵权法与模糊综合评价模型相结合，分析了哈萨克斯坦2001—2017年农业水土资源承载力的动态变化及区域差异，用障碍度法定量识别其影响因素。结果表明：① 2001—2017年，哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力整体呈波动缓慢上升趋势，水土资源子系统和经济子系统的评价指数缓慢上升，生态子系统和社会子系统评价指数明显下降。② 农业水土资源承载力在地区间差异显著，高承载力区主要集中在北部、中部和东部地区，低承载力区在南部和西部地区。北哈萨克斯坦州、科斯塔奈州和阿克莫拉州的承载力高，呈逐年增大趋势，阿特劳州和南哈萨克斯坦州的承载力较低，且呈减小趋势。③ 承载力在2001—2009年主要受垦殖率、单位耕地面积农业产值及农业灌溉率的影响，在2010—2017年主要受农业水土资源匹配系数、人口密度及单位土地污水负荷的影响，生态环境因素逐渐成为承载力障碍因子。

Evaluation on Carrying Capacity of Agricultural Water and Land Resources and Identification of Affecting Factors in Kazakhstan

The quantity and quality of water and land resources are of great significance to the sustainable development of agriculture. The 22 indicators were used to establish the evaluation system of the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan. The analytic hierarchy process, entropy weight method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model were combined to analyze the dynamic change and regional difference of the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan from 2001 to 2017. The obstacle method was used to quantitatively identify the influencing factors. The results showed that: = 1 \* GB3 ① From 2001 to 2017, the overall carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan showed a slow upward trend, and the evaluation indexes of the water and land resources subsystem and the economic subsystem were all increased slowly, but those of the ecology subsystem and social subsystem were significantly decreased; = 2 \* GB3 ② The carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources was significantly different from different regions. The areas with high carrying capacity were mainly distributed in the northern, central and eastern regions, and those with low one were in the southern and western regions. The carrying capacity in North Kazakhstan, Costanay and Akmola was increased year by year, but that in Atyrau and Baplodar was low and decreased; = 3 \* GB3 ③ The carrying capacity was mainly affected by the reclamation rate (C₂), agricultural output value per unit area of cultivated land (C₁₆) and agricultural irrigation rate (C₄) during 2001-2009, but it was mainly affected by the agricultural water and land resources matching coefficient (C₁), population density (C₁₀) and land sewage load per unit area (C₂₀) during 2010-2017. The factors related to the eco-environment have gradually became as the barriers to the carrying capacity.