基于MODIS数据的近期新疆主要湖泊水面变化分析

湖泊的水面积变化是气候变化和人类活动的指示器。利用2000-2011年的MODIS影像，提取新疆水面面积大于100 km²的11个湖泊信息，分析其变化特征。结果表明：11个湖泊总的水面积年变化大，其中最低值出现在2001年，约为4 585 km²，峰值在2003年，水面积为52 77 km²，湖面变幅大且频繁，而近几年湖泊面积总体呈增加趋势。从海拔和地域上分析，阿雅克库木湖等青藏高原型湖泊呈现持续扩张态势，山地湖泊如赛里木湖等湖泊面积基本保持稳定，而出山口绿洲湖泊如博斯腾湖水面积逐渐萎缩，尤其是平原湖泊艾比湖和玛纳斯湖等湖泊水面年变化幅度大，且极不稳定。新疆地区不同海拔和区域主要湖泊水面积变化存在明显的差异，体现了不同区域气候和人类活动的影响特征，但近期湖泊变化的总体趋势与气候变化一致，主要受气候变化的影响。 

Analysis on Recent Change of Water Area of the Main Lakes in Xinjiang Based on MODIS Data

The change of water area of the lakes in Xinjiang is an important indicator of climate change and disturbance of human activities.Based on the MODIS images,this paper analyzed the change of water area of 11 lakes with a water area larger than 100 km2 in Xinjiang during the period from 2000 to 2011.Results showed that the inter-annual variation of the 11 lakes was observably distinct,their smallest total area(4 585 km2) occurred in 2001 and their largest one(5 277 km2) in 2003.Although the variation of water area of the lakes in Xinjiang was significant and frequent in recent years,the water area of many lakes was in an increase trend.Analysis from the aspects of altitudes and geographical locations revealed that the lakes over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,such as the Ayakkum Lake,were expanded in recent years;the area of those in the mountainous regions,such as the Sayram Lake,was basically stable;the lakes in the debouchure oases,such as the Bosten Lake,were in a shrinkage;and the lakes in plains,such as the Ebinur Lake and Manas Lake,were extremely unstable.The apparent diversity of water area from different altitudes and regions was jointly affected by both natural factors and human activities.However,the change of water area was mainly affected by climate change in recent years.