| 灰色系统理论在植物病虫害预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊彩云,吴涛,习万根.灰色系统理论在植物病虫害预测中的应用[J].江西植保,2005,28(2):49-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊彩云 吴涛 习万根 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江西省林业科学院,江西,南昌,330032
2. 江西省吉水县芦溪岭林场,江西,吉水,331600 |
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| 摘 要： | 植物病虫害的综合管理是一个多因素的复杂系统，针对这一特点，本文全面阐述了灰色系统模型的建立与预测方泫，建立了植物病虫害测报中的GM(1，1)模型，测报准确性较高，模型模拟检验精度达到Ⅰ级水平，发展系数小于0．3，可用于该地区植物病虫害作中长期预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 植物病虫害 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-4249(2005)02-0049-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年1月1日 |
Application of grey system theory in prediction of plant diseases and insect pests |
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| XIONG Caiyun,WU Tao,XI Wangen.Application of grey system theory in prediction of plant diseases and insect pests[J].Jiangxi Plant Protection,2005,28(2):49-51. |
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| Authors: | XIONG Caiyun WU Tao XI Wangen |
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| Institution: | XIONG Cai-yun 1,WU Tao 2,XI Wan-gen 2 |
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| Abstract: | The management of plant diseases and insect pests was a complexity system. This paper introduced the basic models of grey system and the author gave the GM(1,1) model of plant diseases and insect pests using the grey system. The verify precision of model simulating comes to first level,its expand modulus (a) was less than 0.3 .So the model could be used as mediunrterm or long-term forecasting for plant diseases and insect pests. |
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| Keywords: | Grey system theory Plant diseases and insect pests Forecasting |
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