基于EPIC模型的中国典型小麦干旱致灾风险评价

运用EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate)农作物生长模型模拟了1966—2005年中国典型小麦生长过程,构建了基于水分胁迫的小麦干旱致灾强度指数,对中国小麦干旱致灾强度和风险的时空分布规律进行了定量评价分析。结果表明:小麦干旱致灾强度呈现出从西北干旱区向东南湿润区递减的趋势,且春小麦分布区旱灾致灾强度高于冬小麦分布区;中国农牧交错带是小麦干旱致灾强度较强且波动较大的区域,也是小麦干旱致灾风险较高的区域;1966-2005年春小麦区干旱致灾强度呈现下降趋势,而冬小麦区呈现普遍上升趋势,其中北部和黄淮冬麦上升趋势最为明显。

Assessment on drought risk of typical wheat in China based on EPIC model

With global climate change and global warming, the frequency and intensity of drought event and loss is increased. This paper simulated the growth process of wheat in China from 1966 to 2005 using EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Clim ate) crop model, developed the drought hazard intensity index based on crop water stress index and quantitatively analyzed the tempo-spatial distribution regularity of wheat drought hazard intensity and drought hazard risk. The results is as follows: Fistly, drought hazard intensity of wheat caused by drought was decreased from the arid region of northwest China to the humid region of southeast China, and drought hazard intensity of spring wheat area was higher than winter wheat area; Secondly, the annual variation and intensity of wheat drought hazard intensity had an abnormal high-value zone, and its space range agreed with the Farming-Pastoral Zone and ecological vulnerable zone of China, which is the high-value zone of the wheat drought hazard risk; Finally, in 1966 to 2005, drought hazard intensity of spring wheat area was decreased, while drought intensity of the winter wheat area was increased, and the North winter wheat area and the winter wheat area of Huang-River and Huai-River demonstrated a distinguished uptrend in all wheat distribution area.