水资源承载力可拓评价模型的改进及应用

水资源评价模型指标体系和指标权重选取是研究水资源承载力模型精度和深度的关键。本文基于博弈论的非对称贴近度可拓评价方法,提出了基于非对称贴近度和粗集权重的可拓评价模型,解决了可拓评价方法在水资源承载力应用中存在的失效和权重选取问题。运用博弈论方法将客观赋权法(熵值法)和主观赋权法(层次分析法)进行集化、融合,使得到的综合权重与各单一权重向量之间的偏差最小,融合多参与方中意的权重确定方法,消除了单一权重法的片面性。改进模型应用于洮河水资源承载力评价研究实例中,与原模型评价结果比,改进后模型融合多参与方中意的权重,使得评价结果更能达到多方共赢。

Improvement and application of extension evaluation method for carrying capacity of water resources

The selection of the index system and the index weight is the key to the accuracy and depth of the model to evaluate the bearing capacity of water resources.Asymmetric close to the degree of extension evaluation method is proposed based on asymmetric close to the degree of centralization and thick heavy extension evaluation model,which solves the the problems of the failure and weight selection in the application of extension evaluation method to water bearing capacity.Game theory is used to objective weighting method(entropy) and subjective weighting method(AHP) for integration,making sure the deviation between the overall weight and a single weight vector is smallest,and the integration of the multiple participants favorite in determining the weight of law eliminates the one-sidedness of single weight method.The improved model is applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of the Taohe River.Compared with the evaluation results of the original one,the improved model integrates the favorite weight of multiple participants,which makes the evaluation results more possible to achieve win-win situation.