不同气候情景下中国东北与华北作物产量变化趋势模拟

采用意大利ICTP中心的区域气候模式RegCM3输出的多情景加权平均值简称REA情景和英国Hadley中心的区域气候模式PRECIS输出的A2和B2情景,结合WOFOST作物生长模拟模型,模拟研究了未来40 a(2011—2050年)气候变化对我国华北东北农作物产量的影响。模拟结果表明:从40 a平均结果来看,对于东北玉米区,三种气候情景资料下可能减产区域主要是东北三省的偏西南地区,其中减产高值区主要集中在吉林省的西部地区白城、通榆等地。对于华北冬麦区,REA情景下可能减产区主要是河北省的东部和山东省的东部,其中减产高值区主要集中在京津及其以东地区;A2和B2情景下可能减产区主要是河北省的中部和东部、山东省的东部以及河南省的南部偏南地区,其中减产高值区主要集中在天津及其以东地区和山东省的东部沿海地区。

Simulation of change trend of crop yields under different climate change scenarios in Northeast and North China

The regional climate models PRECIS and RegCM3 and the crop growth model WOFOST were combined to simulate the changes in crop yields under different climate change scenarios in the future 40a. The preliminary results show that there is a decrease trend in maize yield at southwest part of Northeast China in view of the average values from 2011-2050, and the higheet reduction was distributed at the areas of Baicheng, Tongyu in the west part of Jilin province under the three climate change scenarios. There is also a decrease trend in wheat yield in the east part of Hebei province and in the east part of Shandong province, and the highest reduction was distributed at Beijing and Tianjin and its east parts under the REA scenario. The reduction trend was also occurred at middle and east parts of Hebei province and in the east part of Shandong province and the south part of Henan province, and the highest reduction was distributed at Tianjin and the area east of it and the east part of Shandong province under the scenarios A2 and B2.