RS和GIS支持下的若儿盖草原生态安全模糊评价

应用遥感(RS)和地理信息(GIS)一体化技术对若儿盖1995、2000、2004年土地利用变化进行调查监测,并结合相关社会经济资料,对研究区生态风险做了分析研究.在此基础上运用压力-状态-响应( P-S-R)模型建立评价指标体系,并用AHP法计算出23项评价指标对草原生态安全贡献量所对应的权重系数.以模糊数学中的模糊层次分析法,应用最大隶属度原则对若儿盖草原生态安全做了评价,并应用Markov模型对2010年生态安全状况做了预测.研究结果表明,该区域1995年以来生态安全的"不安全"隶属程度有所增加,从1995年的0.12538到2004年的0.47022,生态安全状况有不断恶化的发展趋势,并预测2010年的隶属度已达到0.56273,为1995年的4.5倍.造成研究区生态环境健康状况不断恶化的原因主要有人类经济活动、鼠害和全球变暖等因素.

A fuzzy evaluation of Ruoergai grassland ecological security based on RS and GIS

On anglicizing by synthesis of land use and related socioeconomic data,and on studying of the ecological risk of Ruoergai County,we constructed the index system based on P-S-R model,uses AHP to follow the modulus calculating out the corresponding weight 23 appraising an index contributing amounts institutes to grasslands ecological security safety.Then based on fuzzy mathematics in fuzzy level analytic method,we evaluated the ecological security condition of Ruoergai grassland on maximal membership degree,and also made a prediction on 2010 using the Markov model.The results indicates that the trend that safe situation of organism's habits has to worsen unceasingly develops since 1995,the "unsafe" membership degree is increased by to some extent,since owing area in 1995 secondary to 0.12538 to arrive at 0.47022 in 2004.The effect to the eco-environment health being continuance degeneration involves three main factors-human economic activity,rat damage and global warming and so on.