| 秃尾河流域降水量权马尔可夫链模型预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李小冰,蔡焕杰,张鑫,王健.秃尾河流域降水量权马尔可夫链模型预测研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(6):252-256. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李小冰 蔡焕杰 张鑫 王健 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西,杨凌,712100 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部高校青年教师奖资助项目，国家自然科学基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对降水过程存在着大量不确定性、不精确性的特点,采用均值-标准差分级法将降水量分为雨涝、偏涝、正常、偏旱和干旱5个状态;针对降水量为相依随机变量的特点,采取规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重,用加权马尔可夫链模型预测未来降水的变化状况;最后以黄河中游秃尾河流域为例对该方法进行了检验,分析了其未来情况下降水的可能变化趋势.结果表明,2002年秃尾河流域降水量预测状态与实际相吻合.
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| 关 键 词： | 降水量 权 马尔可夫链 预测 秃尾河 |
Prediction on changes of precipitation in Tuwei River reaches based on weighted Markov Chain |
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| LI Xiaobing,CAI Huanjie,ZHANG Xin,WANG Jian.Prediction on changes of precipitation in Tuwei River reaches based on weighted Markov Chain[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2009,27(6):252-256. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiaobing CAI Huanjie ZHANG Xin WANG Jian |
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| Institution: | LI Xiao-bing,CAI Huan-jie,ZHANG Xin,WANG Jian(Key Laboratory of Education Ministry for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area,Northwest A & F University,Yangling 712100,China) |
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| Abstract: | Mean-standard deviation classification method is applied to classify precipitation of five states,i.e.water-logging year,weak water-logging year,normal year,weak drought year,and drought year based on the fact that there are much uncertainty and imprecise characteristics in the precipitation course.Then a method called Markov chain with weights is presented to predict future precipitation state by regarding the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of precipitation b... |
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| Keywords: | precipitation weight Markov chain prediction Tuwei River |
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